METHODS: We established a multi-country cross-sectional dataset of first available quantitative HCV RNA linked to demographic and clinical data. We excluded individuals on HCV treatment. We analyzed the distribution of HCV RNA and determined critical thresholds for detection of HCV viraemia. We then performed logistic regression to evaluate factors associated with LLV, and derived relative sensitivities for significant covariates.
RESULTS: The dataset included 66,640 individuals with HCV viraemia from Georgia (44.4%), Canada (40.9%), India (8.1%), Cambodia (2.6%), Egypt (1.6%), Pakistan (1.3%), Cameroon (0.4%), Indonesia (0.2%), Thailand (0.2%), Vietnam (0.1%), Malaysia (0.05%), and Mozambique (0.02%). The 97% LOD was 1,318 IU/mL (95% CI 1298.4, 1322.3). Factors associated with LLV were younger age 18-30 vs. 51-64 years (OR 2.56 95% CI 2.19, 2.99), female vs. male sex (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.18, 1.49), and advanced fibrosis stage F4 vs. F0-1 (OR 1.44, 95%CI 1.21, 1.69). Only the younger age group had a decreased relative sensitivity below 95% at 93.3%.
CONCLUSIONS: In this global dataset, a test with an LOD of 1,318 IU/mL would identify 97% of viraemic HCV infections among almost all populations. This LOD will help guide manufacturers in the development of affordable POC diagnostics to expand HCV testing and linkage to care in LMICs.
LAY SUMMARY: We created and analyzed a dataset from 12 countries with 66,640 participants with chronic hepatitis C virus infection. We determined that about 97% of those with viraemic infection had 1300 International Units/mL or more of circulating virus at the time of diagnosis. While current diagnostic tests can detect as little as 12 International Units/mL of virus, our findings suggest that increasing the level of detection closer to 1300 would maintain good test accuracy and will likely allow for more affordable portable tests to be developed for use in low and middle income countries.
METHODS: A total of 17 samples collected from December 2009 to January 2011 were analyzed. Reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was performed, followed by sequencing technique. Results were analyzed based on sequence information in GenBank. A second genotyping method (AmpliSens(®) HCV-1/2/3-FRT) was done, which differentiates HCV genotypes by means of real-time hybridization-fluorescence detection.
RESULTS: From 17 samples, four were untypeable by AmpliSens(®) HCV-1/2/3-FRT. Eleven of 13 (84.6%) results showed concordant genotypes. A specimen that was determined as genotype 3a by sequencing was genotype 1 by the AmpliSens(®) HCV-1/2/3-FRT. Another specimen that was genotype 1 by sequencing was identified as genotype 3 by AmpliSens(®) HCV-1/2/3-FRT.
CONCLUSION: HCV genotyping with AmpliSens(®) HCV-1/2/3-FRT using real-time PCR method provides a much simpler and more feasible workflow with shorter time compared to sequencing method. There was good concordance compared to sequencing method. However, more evaluation studies would be required to show statistical significance, and to troubleshoot discordant results. AmpliSens(®) HCV-1/2/3-FRT does differentiate between genotype but not until subtype level.
METHODS: An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed.
RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039.
CONCLUSIONS: The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.
OBJECTIVE: To assist with achieving these goals and to inform the development of a national strategic plan for Malaysia, we estimated the long-term burden incurred by the care and management of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We compared cumulative healthcare costs and disease burden under different treatment cascade scenarios.
METHODS: We attached direct costs for the management/care of chronically HCV-infected patients to a previously developed clinical disease progression model. Under assumptions regarding disease stage-specific proportions of model-predicted HCV patients within care, annual numbers of patients initiated on antiviral treatment and distribution of treatments over stage, we projected the healthcare costs and disease burden [in disability-adjusted life-years (DALY)] in 2018-2040 under four treatment scenarios: (A) no treatment/baseline; (B) pre-2018 standard of care (pegylated interferon/ribavirin); (C) gradual scale-up in direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment uptake that does not meet the WHO 2030 treatment uptake target; (D) scale-up in DAA treatment uptake that meets the WHO 2030 target.
RESULTS: Scenario D, while achieving the WHO 2030 target and averting 253,500 DALYs compared with the pre-2018 standard of care B, incurred the highest direct patient costs over the period 2018-2030: US$890 million (95% uncertainty interval 653-1271). When including screening programme costs, the total cost was estimated at US$952 million, which was 12% higher than the estimated total cost of scenario C.
CONCLUSIONS: The scale-up to meet the WHO 2030 target may be achievable with appropriately high governmental commitment to the expansion of HCV screening to bring sufficient undiagnosed chronically infected patients into the treatment pathway.
METHODS: Treatment-naive patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 2/3 infection were randomized to receive peginterferon alfa-2b (1.5μg/kg/wk) for 24weeks (group A); peginterferon alfa-2b (1.0μg/kg/wk) for 24weeks (group B); or peginterferon alfa-2b (1.5μg/kg/wk) for 16weeks (group C), each in combination with weight-based ribavirin (800-1200mg/d). The study population comprised two cohorts: the Hep-Net cohort enrolled in Germany and an International cohort enrolled at study sites throughout Europe and Asia. The primary end point was sustained virological response (SVR).
RESULTS: The study included 682 patients; 80.2% had genotype 3 infection. In the intent-to-treat population, SVR rates were 66.5%, 64.3%, and 56.6% in groups A, B, and C, and were similar in Asian and white patients. Treatment differences (A vs. B and A vs. C) failed to reach the predefined margin for noninferiority of -10%; and thus groups B and C failed to show noninferiority relative to group A. Among patients with undetectable HCV RNA at week 4, SVR rates were 75.3%, 75.9%, and 72.4%, respectively. Relapse rates were 17.8%, 16.3%, and 29.3%, respectively. Treatment-emergent serious adverse events were highest in group A and lowest in group C, and adverse events leading to discontinuation were similar across treatment arms.
CONCLUSIONS: For patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 2/3 infection, 24weeks of peginterferon alfa-2b (1.5μg/kg/wk) plus weight-based ribavirin remains a standard-of-care therapy; however, treatment for 16weeks may be considered for patients with undetectable HCV RNA at week 4 of the treatment.