OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk, persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those countries who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. We provide novel indicators to measure disease transmission.
METHODS: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 330 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in East Asia and the Pacific as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.
RESULTS: The standard surveillance metrics for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar were concerning as they had the largest new caseloads at 4301, 2588, and 1387, respectively. When looking at the acceleration of new COVID-19 infections, we found that French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had rates at 3.17, 0.22, and 0.06 per 100,000. These three countries also ranked highest in terms of jerk at 15.45, 0.10, and 0.04, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Two of the most populous countries in East Asia and the Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, have alarming surveillance metrics. These two countries rank highest in new infections in the region. The highest rates of speed, acceleration, and positive upwards jerk belong to French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, and may result in explosive growth. While all countries in East Asia and the Pacific need to be cautious about reopening their countries since outbreaks are likely to occur in the second wave of COVID-19, the country of greatest concern is the Philippines. Based on standard and enhanced surveillance, the Philippines has not gained control of the COVID-19 epidemic, which is particularly troubling because the country ranks 4th in population in the region. Without extreme and rigid social distancing, quarantines, hygiene, and masking to reverse trends, the Philippines will remain on the global top 5 list of worst COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in high morbidity and mortality. The second wave will only exacerbate existing conditions and increase COVID-19 transmissions.
METHODS: in this study, a fixed retrospective cohort design has been conducted by using data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) in 2007 and 2014. A total of 6,863 respondents who were not diagnosed with NCD by medical personnel in 2007 were successfully traced. After being controlled for covariates, the association between NCD type and poor physical function was measured by using the Adjusted Risk Ratio (ARR) and Population Attributable Risk (PAR).
RESULTS: respondents with poor physical function were at a significantly increased of being diagnosed with stroke (ARR: 6.9, 95%CI: 4.3-10.9), diabetes (ARR: 3.1, 95%CI: 2.4-4.1), or heart disease (ARR: 3.2, 95%CI: 2.4-4.5). The PAR score of respondents with diabetes was 0.006, meaning 0.6% of diabetes cases are attributed to poor physical function and can therefore be prevented if people maintain good physical function.
CONCLUSION: poor physical function can be assessed to identify risk of diabetes, heart disease, and stroke. Healthcare personnel should provide education programs that inform patients on the importance of maintaining a healthy physical ability.
RESULTS: Using Open Data Kit GeoODK, we designed and piloted an electronic questionnaire for rolling cross sectional surveys of health facility attendees as part of a malaria elimination campaign in two predominantly rural sites in the Rizal, Palawan, the Philippines and Kulon Progo Regency, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The majority of health workers were able to use the tablets effectively, including locating participant households on electronic maps. For all households sampled (n = 603), health facility workers were able to retrospectively find the participant household using the Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates and data collected by tablet computers. Median distance between actual house locations and points collected on the tablet was 116 m (IQR 42-368) in Rizal and 493 m (IQR 258-886) in Kulon Progo Regency. Accuracy varied between health facilities and decreased in less populated areas with fewer prominent landmarks.
CONCLUSIONS: Results demonstrate the utility of this approach to develop real-time high-resolution maps of disease in resource-poor environments. This method provides an attractive approach for quickly obtaining spatial information on individuals presenting at health facilities in resource poor areas where formal addresses are unavailable and internet connectivity is limited. Further research is needed on how to integrate these with other health data management systems and implement in a wider operational context.
Methods: Data were collected during household surveys conducted between 2016 and 2020 in the five surveillance sites in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Viet Nam. We defined hypertension as systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mmHg or taking blood pressure-lowering medication. We defined hypertension control as systolic blood pressure Indonesia: 1641; Malaysia: 8164; and Viet Nam: 634). The mean age of participants with hypertension was 60 years (range: 19-101 years). Only in the Malaysian site were more than half of individuals with hypertension aware of their condition. Hypertension treatment ranged from 20.8% (341/1641; 95% CI: 18.8-22.8%) in the Indonesian site to 44.7% (3649/8164; 95% CI: 43.6-45.8%) in the Malaysian site. Less than one in four participants with hypertension had achieved hypertension control in any site. Hypertension awareness, treatment and control were generally higher among women and older adults.
Conclusion: While hypertension awareness and treatment varied widely across surveillance sites, hypertension control was low in all sites.
Methods: A combination of active and passive detection of infection was carried out among communities in Batubara, Langkat, and South Nias regencies. Finger-prick blood samples from consenting individuals of all ages provided blood films for microscopic examination and blood spots on filter paper. Plasmodium species were identified using nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of ribosomal RNA genes and a novel assay that amplifies a conserved sequence specific for the sicavar gene family of Plasmodium knowlesi.
Results: Of 3731 participants, 614 (16.5%) were positive for malaria parasites by microscopy. PCR detected parasite DNA in samples from 1169 individuals (31.3%). In total, 377 participants (11.8%) harbored P. knowlesi. Also present were Plasmodium vivax (14.3%), Plasmodium falciparum (10.5%) and Plasmodium malariae (3.4%).
Conclusions: Amplification of sicavar is a specific and sensitive test for the presence of P. knowlesi DNA in humans. Subpatent and asymptomatic multispecies parasitemia is relatively common in North Sumatera, so PCR-based surveillance is required to support control and elimination activities.
METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN: The data used for this analysis were from 1143 children, 6-12 years old, that participated in the South East Asian Nutrition Survey (SEANUTS). Physical activity (PA) was measured using pedometers for 2 consecutive days and was categorized low, moderate and high. Child nutritional status was categorized based on body mass index for age z-scores (BAZ) into normal weight (-2 SD ≤BAZ≤1 SD) or overweight (BAZ >1 SD). Energy intake was calculated from a one day 24 hour recall and compared to the Indonesian recommended dietary allowance (RDA) for energy.
RESULTS: Children with low PA had higher risk (ODDs 3.4, 95% CI: 2.0, 6.0) of being overweight compared to children who had high PA. Children with moderate PA and energy take >100% RDA had higher risk (ODDs 4.2, 95% CI 1.9, 9.3) of being overweight than children with high PA and energy intakes ≤100% RDA.
CONCLUSIONS: Low physical activity independently or moderate physical activity and high energy intake are risk factors for Indonesian children to get overweight. Program intervention such as increasing physical activity at school and home is needed to reduce overweight among children.
METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Aceh between November 2014 and March 2015 with a total of 609 participants living in seven regencies and two municipalities. Information on the socio-demographic characteristics of participants and their KAP regarding dengue was collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire. The KAP status (good vs. poor) of participants with different socio-demographic characteristics was compared using Chi Square-test, ANOVA or Fisher's exact test as appropriate. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of each KAP domain.
RESULTS: We found that 45% of participants had good knowledge regarding dengue and only 32% had good attitudes and good dengue preventive practices. There was a significant positive correlation between knowledge and attitudes, knowledge and practice, and attitudes and practice. In addition, people who had good knowledge were 2.7 times more likely to have good attitudes, and people who had good attitudes were 2.2 times more likely to have good practices regarding dengue. The level of education, occupation, marital status, monthly income, socioeconomic status (SES) and living in the city were associated with the knowledge level. Occupation, SES, and having experienced dengue fever were associated with attitudes. Education, occupation, SES and type of residence were associated with preventive practices.
CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that dengue prevention programs are required to increase KAP levels regarding dengue in the communities of Aceh.
AIMS: To analyze the factors associated with complementary feeding practices among children aged 6-23 months in Indonesia.
METHODS: A cross-sectional design was employed using data from the 2017 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey. A total of 502,800 mothers with children aged 6-23 months were recruited through multistage cluster sampling. Data were analyzed using a logistic regression test to determine the correlation between predisposing, enabling, and reinforcing factors and complementary feeding practices.
RESULTS: A prevalence values of analysis showed that approximately 71.14%, 53.95%, and 28.13% of the children met MMF, MMD, and MAD, respectively. The probability of achieving minimum dietary diversity (MDD) was high in the following: children aged 18-23 months (odds ratio [OR] = 9.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.29-12.58), children of mothers with higher education (OR = 5.95; 95% CI = 2.17-16.34), children from households with upper wealth index (OR = 2.53; 95% CI = 1.85-3.48), children of mothers who received childbirth assistance by professionals (OR = 1.63; 95% CI = 1.20-2.20), and children of mothers who had access to the Internet (OR = 1.26; 95% CI = 1.06-1.50). Moreover, children from households with the upper wealth index (OR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.03-1.91), children whose mothers were employed (OR = 1.19; 95% CI = 1.02-1.39) living in urban areas (OR = 1.28; 95% CI = 1.06-1.54) and children of mothers who received childbirth assistance by professionals (OR = 1.33; 95% CI = 0.98-1.82) were more likely to meet Minimum Meal Frequency (MMF). Finally, children aged 18-23 months (OR = 2.40; 95% CI = 1.81-3.17), of mothers with higher education (OR = 3.15; 95% CI = 0.94-10.60), from households with upper wealth index (OR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.05-2.90) and born with professional childbirth assistance (OR = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.21-2.75) were significantly associated with minimum acceptable diet (MAD).
CONCLUSIONS: The findings revealed that the prevalence of MDD and MAD in Indonesia was low. Strategies such as improving health services, economic conditions, and education level of mothers are needed to improve infant and young child feeding in Indonesia.