AIMS: To validate the performance of the dual-cutoffs (8/12 kPa) and the proposed algorithm to identify patients with cACLD in three well-characterised Asian nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) cohorts.
METHODS: We included 830 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. Liver stiffness was measured using transient elastography (FibroScan).
RESULTS: cACLD was found in 21.8% of patients. Compared with the original Baveno VI elastography criteria (10/15 kPa), the new cutoffs showed a comparable specificity and a higher sensitivity for identifying cACLD. We developed a simplified risk model incorporating age, liver stiffness value, and platelet count, which outperformed liver stiffness measurement alone in two Chinese cohorts (P = 0.001), and was further validated in a Malaysian cohort (P = 0.04). Overall, the "two-step" screening of cACLD improved classification rates from 73.5% by the original dual-cutoffs to 86.7%. Notably, usage of our simplified risk model resulted in significantly lower false-negative rate than the refined screening approach by Papatheodoridi et al (27.1% vs 41.4%; P = 0.01).
CONCLUSIONS: The dual elastography cutoffs of 8 and 12 kPa are more appropriate to identify cACLD in Asian patients with NAFLD. In combination with a simplified risk model in unclassified patients, the two-step approach showed a classification rate of about 85%.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study on NAFLD patients who had a liver biopsy and LSM on the same day. The diagnostic performance of the Hepamet fibrosis score was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).
RESULTS: The data for 196 patients were analyzed (mean age 50 ± 11 years old, 50% men, 56.6% Malay, 27.6% Chinese, 15.8% Indian, 67.9% NASH, 15.8% advanced liver fibrosis). The AUROC of Hepamet fibrosis score for the diagnosis of advanced liver fibrosis was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.80 - 0.91). Using the <0.12 and ≥0.47 cut-offs from the original study, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, the proportion of indeterminate results and misclassification rate were 81.8%, 91.8%, 47.4%, 98.2%, 32.1% and 6.1%, respectively. Using LSM <10 kPa and ≥15 kPa for the diagnosis of absence and presence of advanced liver fibrosis, respectively, in patients with Hepamet fibrosis score ≥0.47 (i.e., the two-step approach) reduced indeterminate results and misclassification to 16.1% and 3.6%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: We found the Hepamet fibrosis score to have good diagnostic accuracy in a population that was largely unrepresented in earlier work and demonstrated its utility in a two-step approach with LSM for the diagnosis of advanced liver fibrosis.
OBJECTIVE: To study the prognostic implications of baseline levels and dynamic changes of the vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE)-based scores developed for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (Agile 3+) and cirrhosis (Agile 4) in patients with MASLD.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study included data from a natural history cohort of patients with MASLD who underwent VCTE examination at 16 tertiary referral centers in the US, Europe, and Asia from February 2004 to January 2023, of which the data were collected prospectively at 14 centers. Eligible patients were adults aged at least 18 years with hepatic steatosis diagnosed by histologic methods (steatosis in ≥5% of hepatocytes) or imaging studies (ultrasonography, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, or controlled attenuation parameter ≥248 dB/m by VCTE).
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was liver-related events (LREs), defined as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, or hepatorenal syndrome), liver transplant, and liver-related deaths. The Agile scores were compared with histologic and 8 other noninvasive tests.
RESULTS: A total of 16 603 patients underwent VCTE examination at baseline (mean [SD] age, 52.5 [13.7] years; 9600 [57.8%] were male). At a median follow-up of 51.7 (IQR, 25.2-85.2) months, 316 patients (1.9%) developed LREs. Both Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores classified fewer patients between the low and high cutoffs than most fibrosis scores and achieved the highest discriminatory power in predicting LREs (integrated area under the time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.89). A total of 10 920 patients (65.8%) had repeated VCTE examination at a median interval of 15 (IQR, 11.3-27.7) months and were included in the serial analysis. A total of 81.9% of patients (7208 of 8810) had stable Agile 3+ scores and 92.6% of patients (8163 of 8810) had stable Agile 4 scores (same risk categories at both assessments). The incidence of LREs was 0.6 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently low Agile 3+ scores and 30.1 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently high Agile 3+ scores. In patients with high Agile 3+ score at baseline, a decrease in the score by more than 20% was associated with substantial reduction in the risk of LREs. A similar trend was observed for the Agile 4 score, although it missed more LREs in the low-risk group.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Findings of this study suggest that single or serial Agile scores are highly accurate in predicting LREs in patients with MASLD, making them suitable alternatives to liver biopsy in routine clinical practice and in phase 2b and 3 clinical trials for steatohepatitis.
METHODS: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis for the performance of NITs against liver biopsy for MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4. Index tests were the FibroScan-AST (FAST) score, liver stiffness measured using vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), the fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4) and the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and thresholds including those that achieved 34% SFR were reported.
RESULTS: We included 2281 unique cases. The prevalence of MASH+F2-4, MASH+F2-3 and MASH+F4 was 31%, 24% and 7%, respectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-4 were .78, .75, .68 and .57 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F2-3 were .73, .67, .60, .58 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for MASH+F4 were .79, .84, .81, .76 for FAST, LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS. The sequential combination of FIB-4 and LSM-VCTE for the detection of MASH+F2-3 with threshold of .7 and 3.48, and 5.9 and 20 kPa achieved SFR of 67% and sensitivity of 60%, detecting 15 true positive cases from a theoretical group of 100 participants at the prevalence of 24%.
CONCLUSIONS: Sequential combinations of NITs do not compromise diagnostic performance and may reduce resource utilisation through the need of fewer LSM-VCTE examinations.
AIMS: We evaluated the performance of machine learning (ML) and non-patented scores for ruling out SF among NAFLD/MASLD patients.
METHODS: Twenty-one ML models were trained (N = 1153), tested (N = 283), and validated (N = 220) on clinical and biochemical parameters of histologically-proven NAFLD/MASLD patients (N = 1656) collected across 14 centres in 8 Asian countries. Their performance for detecting histological-SF (≥F2fibrosis) were evaluated with APRI, FIB4, NFS, BARD, and SAFE (NPV/F1-score as model-selection criteria).
RESULTS: Patients aged 47 years (median), 54.6% males, 73.7% with metabolic syndrome, and 32.9% with histological-SF were included in the study. Patients with SFvs.no-SF had higher age, aminotransferases, fasting plasma glucose, metabolic syndrome, uncontrolled diabetes, and NAFLD activity score (p 140) was next best in ruling out SF (NPV of 0.757, 0.724 and 0.827 in overall, test and validation set).
CONCLUSIONS: ML with clinical, anthropometric data and simple blood investigations perform better than FIB-4 for ruling out SF in biopsy-proven Asian NAFLD/MASLD patients.
METHODS: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0-4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score ≥15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0-2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: <10 vs 10 to <20 vs ≥20 kPa; FIB-4: <1·3 vs 1·3 to ≤2·67 vs >2·67; NFS: 0·676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226.
FINDINGS: Of 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44·7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44-63), and 1161 [46·1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33-91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5·8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0·72 (95% CI 0·62-0·81) for histology, 0·76 (0·70-0·83) for LSM-VCTE, 0·74 (0·64-0·82) for FIB-4, and 0·70 (0·63-0·80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression.
INTERPRETATION: Simple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases.
FUNDING: Innovative Medicines Initiative 2.
METHODS: A total of 623 subjects were included in this study, of whom, 423 were chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients without liver cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), 103 CHB with either liver cirrhosis ± HCC and 97 individuals who had resolved HBV. Two single-nucleotide polymorphisms rs3739298 and rs532841 of DLC1 gene were genotyped using the Sequenom MassARRAY platform.
RESULTS: Our results indicated significant differences between the chronic HBV and resolved HBV groups in genotype and allele frequencies of DLC1-rs3739298 [odds ratio (OR) = 2.23; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24-3.99; P = 0.007] and (OR = 1.54; 95% CI: 1.07-2.22; P = 0.021), respectively. Moreover, haplotype analysis revealed significant associations between chronicity of HBV with TG and GA haplotypes (P = 0.041 and P = 0.042), respectively.
CONCLUSION: A significant association exists between the rs3739298 variant and susceptibility to CHB infection.
METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted among liver disease patients of various etiologies undergoing transient elastography (TE) over a 9-year duration.
RESULTS: Data for 2886 patients were analyzed and had the following demographics: The median age was 60 (IQR: 45-69) years, 51% were males, and ethnicity was predominantly Chinese (52.5%), followed by Malays (34%) and Indians (12.3%). The median CAP score was 272 (IQR: 219-319) dB/m and the median liver stiffness measurement (LSM) score was 6.5 (IQR: 4.9-9.7) kPa. Hepatic steatosis occurred across the spectrum of etiologies of CLD. Among patients with steatosis, the most common etiologies were nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) at 62% and chronic hepatitis B (CHB) at 26.3%. TE findings suggestive of cACLD (10.1-15 kPa) and highly suggestive of cACLD (>15 kPa) were observed in 11.3% and 12.4% of patients, respectively. NAFLD was found to be the most common etiology for cases with suggestive of cACLD (47.2%) and highly suggestive of cACLD (41.5%).
CONCLUSION: Hepatic steatosis is common in CLD, regardless of etiology. Compared with other etiologies, NAFLD is now the leading cause of cACLD.
AIM: To evaluate the accuracy of MACK-3 for the diagnosis of fibrotic NASH.
METHODOLOGY: Consecutive adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients who had liver biopsy in a university hospital were included. MACK-3 was calculated using the online calculator using the following variables: fasting glucose, fasting insulin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and cytokeratin 18 (CK18). MACK-3 cut-offs ≤0.134 and ≥0.550 were used to predict absence and presence of fibrotic NASH, respectively. Histopathological examination of liver biopsy specimen was reported according to the NASH Clinical Research Network Scoring System.
RESULTS: Data for 196 subjects were analysed. MACK-3 was good for diagnosis of fibrotic NASH (area under receiver-operating characteristics curve [AUROC] 0.80), comparable to the Fibrosis-4 index (FIB4) and the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) and superior to the BARD score and CK18. MACK-3 was good for diagnosis of active NASH (AUROC 0.81) and was superior to other blood fibrosis tests. The overall accuracy, percentage of subjects in grey zone, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of MACK-3 for diagnosis of fibrotic NASH was 79.1%, 46.9%, 100%, 43.8%, 43.1% and 100%, respectively, while for diagnosis of active NASH was 90.0%, 39.3%, 84.2%, 81.4%, 88.9% and 74.5%, respectively.
CONCLUSION: MACK-3 is promising as a non-invasive test for active NASH and fibrotic NASH and may be useful to identify patients who need more aggressive intervention.
METHODS: The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B.
FINDINGS: In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [-5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [-5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000.
INTERPRETATION: The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.