"A graphical chain modelling approach is used to study the determinants of neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in Malaysia. This approach provides an easily interpretable empirical description and illustrates explicitly the conditional independence structure between each pair of variables. The interpretation can be read directly from a mathematical graph. Besides examining the direct association of each determinant on mortality, we also examine the effects of socio-economic determinants on intermediate determinants to understand the pathways through which the socioeconomic determinants affect the chance of mortality. The data anlaysed come from the second Malaysian Family Life Survey, fielded between August 1988 and January 1989. "
When multiple durations are generated by a single unit, they may be related in a way that is not fully captured by the regressors. The omitted unit-specific variables might vary over the durations. They might also be correlated with the variables in the regression component. The authors propose an estimator that responds to these concerns and develop a specification test for detecting unobserved unit-specific effects. Data from Malaysia reveal that concentration of child mortality in some families is imperfectly explained by observed explanatory variables, and that failure to control for unobserved heterogeneity seriously biases the parameter estimates.
Infant and child mortality rates have dropped sharply for all ethnic groups in Malaysia between 1950 and 1988, but persistent ethnic differences remain. In this article we assess the contribution of several potential reasons both for the decline and the remaining differences between the Malay and Chinese sub-populations. Increased use of health inputs is found to explain a substantial part of the decline, but increased education of mothers, and income growth are also important. Longer spacing between births, and, higher average age at birth as a result of lower fertility and higher age at marriage provide only a marginal direct contribution to the fall in mortality. We find that lower mortality among the Chinese is accounted for by their higher incomes and greater propensty to purchase medical care. We also control for self-selection among users of medical care, and find that those who use health care in Malaysia tend to be subject to higher-than-average risks.
The concept of epidemiological transition is now quite widely recognized, if not so widely accepted. The transition appears to progress at varying speeds and to different extents spatially; it seems that there can be considerable international, regional and local variations in its progress. The paper examines this contention in the case of a number of countries in Southeast Asia, principally Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand. Drawing on evidence from this region, the paper highlights the importance when researching epidemiological transition of the time period under consideration; socio-cultural variations; the nature and quality of data, and spatial scale. It makes some suggestions as to the potential of the concept of epidemiological transition in health care planning and development studies.
BACKGROUND: Cerebrovascular diseases (CBVDs) and diabetes mellitus (DM) are interrelated and cumbersome global health burdens. However, the relationship between edible oils consumption and mortality burdens of CBVDs and DM has not yet been evaluated. This review aims to explore correlations between per capita mortality burdens of CBVDs and DM, as well as food consumption of palm or soya oils in 11 randomly selected countries in 2005, 2010, and 2016.
METHODS: After obtaining data on food consumption of palm and soya oils and mortality burdens of CBVDs and DM, correlations between the consumption of oils and mortality burdens of diseases were explored.
RESULTS: There was a positive correlation between the consumption of soya oil with the mortality burden of CBVDs in Australia, Switzerland, and Indonesia, as well as the mortality burden of DM in the USA. The consumption of palm oil had a positive correlation with the mortality burden of DM in Jordan only.
CONCLUSIONS: Food consumption of soya oil in several countries possibly contributes to the mortality burden of CBVDs or DM more than food consumption of palm oil, which could be a possible risk factor in the mortality burdens of CBVDs and DM.
BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.
METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).
FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.
INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Malaysian collaborators: Southern University College, Skudai, Malaysia (Y J Kim PhD); School of Medical Sciences, University of Science Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia (K I Musa MD); Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (R Sahathevan PhD); Department of Community Medicine, International Medical University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (C T Sreeramareddy MD); WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia (A L Thorne-Lyman ScD)
Over a 21-month period, 108 of 45,770 neonates born in the Maternity Hospital, Kuala Lumpur, developed necrotising enterocolitis (NEC). The incidence of NEC was 2.4 per 1000 livebirths or 2.7 per 100 special care nursery (SCN) admissions in this Hospital. There was no significant difference in the incidence between the sexes or among the different races. NEC was most common (9.4%) in the very low birthweight (VLBW: neonates weighing less than 1500 grams) and the preterms of less than 34 week gestation (8.4%). 54.6% of the patients developed the condition during the first week of life. NEC occurred throughout the year in our nursery with clustering of cases intermittently. The case fatality ratio of the condition was 28.7%. NEC accounted for 5.7% of our Hospital's neonatal (less than 28 days of life) and postneonatal (greater than or equal to 28 days of life) deaths. There was no significant difference in the rates of occurrence of placental praevia, prolonged rupture of amniotic membranes, maternal pregnancy-induced hypertension, birth asphyxia, apnoea, respiratory distress, patent ductus arteriosus and exchange blood transfusion in neonates with NEC and those in the control group. Our findings on Malaysian neonates were comparable with those reported in the literature on neonates in developed countries.
We investigated the macroeconomic determinants of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortalities in Bangladesh for the period 1991-2018 and discuss implications of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 3 (SDG 3) and Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) for developing countries. We used annual time series data and the econometric techniques of Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) regressions for analysis. Determinants most effective in combating neonatal, infant, and under-five mortalities include variables such as 'protecting newborns against tetanus', 'increasing healthcare expenditure', and 'making sure births are attended by skilled healthcare staff'. Employing more healthcare workers and assuring more and improved healthcare provisions can further reduce the neonatal, infant, and under-five mortalities. Developing countries with similar macroeconomic profiles can achieve similar SDG 3 and MDG 4 outcomes by emulating the policies and strategies Bangladesh applied to reducing child mortalities over the last three decades.
From July through December 1997, 11 previously healthy children in Peninsular Malaysia succumbed to an illness clinically characterised by an acute severe refractory left-ventricular failure, following a brief prodromal illness, in the midst of an outbreak of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), similar to the reported experience in Sarawak and Taiwan. Retrospective reviews of the clinical features and results of laboratory, pathological and virological investigations of cases were conducted. The median age of the 11 case-patients was 31 months (range, 13 to 49 months); 6 were males. A brief prodromal illness of 3 days (range, 2 to 5 days) was characterised by fever (axillary temperature > 38 degrees C) (100%), oral ulcers (72%), extremity rashes (45%) and significant vomiting (55%). Upon hospitalisation, 7 of 11 case-patients had features suggestive of cardiogenic shock, while 4 of 11 case-patients developed shock during hospitalisation as evidenced by marked sustained tachycardia (heart rate > or = 180 beats per minute), poor peripheral pulses and peripheral perfusion, mottled extremities, pulmonary oedema (haemorrhagic pulmonary secretions in 8 of 11 cases during tracheal intubation, often precipitated by conservative crystalloid boluses, and radiographic evidence of acute pulmonary oedema in 5 of 7 cases) and markedly impaired left ventricular function on echocardiographic examination (7 of 7 cases). Three of 4 case-patients had aseptic meningitis while one case-patient also had an acute flaccid paraparesis. Despite supportive therapy, death occurred within a median of 13.4 hours following hospitalization. Post-mortem findings (all 8 specimens examined) consistently demonstrated brain-stem encephalitis with foci of neuronal necrosis and micro-abscesses. None of the 11 specimens examined revealed histological evidence of myocarditis. Enterovirus 71 (EV71) was detected in 10 of 11 case-patients, many (7) from various sterile tissue sites (5 from central nervous tissues). No other viruses were isolated or identified. Clinical features and pathological studies closely paralleled the reported experience in Sarawak and Taiwan. The uniform necropsy findings of necrotizing brain-stem encephalitis coupled with essentially normal myocardial histology, in concert with the concurrent and consistent detection of EV71 points to a primary EV71 encephalitis; as yet unclear neurogenic mechanisms may account for the cardiovascular manifestations.
PIP:
Experiencing remarkable decreases in mortality rates over the past 3 decades, Malaysia currently has one of the lowest mortality rates among developing countries, a rate that compares favorably with those of developed countries. Between 1957 and 1989, the crude death rate dropped from 12.4/1000 population to 4.6. Over the same period, Malaysia recorded even greater decreases in the infant mortality rate, from 75.5/1000 births to 15.2. The Maternal mortality rate also declined from 1.48 in 1970 to 0.24 in 1988. The data indicates that mortality rates vary from state to state, and that rural areas have a higher mortality than urban areas. According to a study by the National Population and Family Development Board, the use of maternal and child health services has played an important role in reducing neonatal, perinatal, infant, child, and maternal mortality rates. Nearly all women in Malaysia receive antenatal services. While the country has achieved great gains on mortality rates, programs focusing on specific age and socioeconomic groups could lead to even greater reductions. The Minister for National Unity and Social Development, Dato Napsiah Omar, has called for the development of programs designed to improve the population's quality of life.