METHODS: An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed.
RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039.
CONCLUSIONS: The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.
METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study, set in Malaysia and the Philippines, builds on two systematic reviews of barriers to effective hypertension management. People with hypertension (pre-existing and newly diagnosed) will be identified in poor households in 24-30 communities per country. Quantitative and qualitative methods will be used to examine their experiences of and pathways into seeking and obtaining care. These include two waves of household surveys of 20-25 participants per community 12-18 months apart, microcosting exercises to assess the cost of illness (including costs due to health seeking activities and inability to work (5 per community)), preliminary and follow-up in-depth interviews and digital diaries with hypertensive adults over the course of a year (40 per country, employing an innovative mobile phone technology), focus group discussions with study participants and structured assessments of health facilities (including formal and informal providers).
ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been granted by the Observational Research Ethics Committee at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Research Ethics Boards at the Universiti Putra Malaysia and the University of the Philippines Manila. The project team will disseminate findings and engage with a wide range of stakeholders to promote uptake and impact. Alongside publications in high-impact journals, dissemination activities include a comprehensive stakeholder analysis, engagement with traditional and social media and 'digital stories' coproduced with research participants.
BACKGROUND: COPD is a major cause of mortality and morbidity and is associated with considerable economic burden on the individual and society. It limits the daily activities and working ability of the patients.
METHODOLOGY: We conducted a systematic search of PUBMED, SCIENCE DIRECT, Cochrane CENTRAL, SCOPUS, Google Scholar and SAGE Premier Databases to find scientific research articles evaluating the cost of COPD management from patient and societal perspective.
RESULTS: Estimated per patient per year direct cost in Norway, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Greece, Belgium, and Serbia was €10,701, €9580, €7847, €7448, €7045, €2896, €1963, and €2047, respectively. Annual per patient cost of work productivity loss was highest in Germany as €5735 and lowest in Greece as €998. It was estimated as €4824, €2033 and €1298 in Bulgaria, Denmark and Sweden, respectively. Several factors found associated with increasing cost of COPD management that include but not limited to late diagnosis, severity of disease, frequency of exacerbation, hospital readmissions, non-adherence to the therapy and exposure to COPD risk factors.
CONCLUSION: Minimizing the COPD exacerbations and controlling the worsening of symptoms may potentially reduce the cost of COPD management at any stage.
METHODS: Data from multiple sources were used to estimate diarrheal mortality and morbidity according to health service utilization. The proportion of this burden attributable to rotavirus was estimated from a community-based study and a meta-analysis we conducted of primary hospital-based studies. Rotavirus incidence was determined by multiplying acute gastroenteritis incidence with estimates of the proportion of gastroenteritis attributable to rotavirus. The economic burden of rotavirus disease was estimated from the health systems and societal perspective.
RESULTS: Annually, rotavirus results in 27 deaths, 31,000 hospitalizations, 41,000 outpatient visits and 145,000 episodes of home-treated gastroenteritis in Malaysia. We estimate an annual rotavirus incidence of 1 death per 100,000 children and 12 hospitalizations, 16 outpatient clinic visits and 57 home-treated episodes per 1000 children under-5 years. Annually, RVGE is estimated to cost US$ 34 million to the healthcare provider and US$ 50 million to society. Productivity loss contributes almost a third of costs to society. Publicly, privately and home-treated episodes consist of 52%, 27% and 21%, respectively, of the total societal costs.
CONCLUSIONS: RVGE represents a considerable health and economic burden in Malaysia. Much of the burden lies in privately or home-treated episodes and is poorly captured in previous studies. This study provides vital information for future evaluation of cost-effectiveness, which are necessary for policy-making regarding universal vaccination.
METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 269 older persons with diabetes in all government health clinics in Kuantan using Diabetes Quality of Life questionnaire. SPSS version 23 was used for the statistical analysis.
RESULTS: Majority of the respondents were females (61%), Malays (84.8%), pensioners (54.3%) with education up to primary school (52%) and are staying with family members (93.7%). Most of the patients were on two antidiabetic agents (48%) followed by a single antidiabetic agent (32%). Despite the risk of hypoglycaemia, 0.4% of them are on glibenclamide. The use of insulin is still common among 21% of them that are on intermediate-acting insulin, 15.6% on premixed insulin and 7.8% on short-acting insulin. Those taking a higher number of antidiabetic agents were found to be associated with poorer quality of life (p=0.001) compared to those taking one or two antidiabetic medications. Those on insulin also have significantly poorer quality of life score (p=0.012).
CONCLUSION: Despite aiming for controlled diabetes, older persons suffer poor quality of life with further intensification of their antidiabetic medications according to the guidelines. This includes the complexity of insulin usage and polypharmacy, which contribute to the low quality of life score.
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to quantify the potential lifetime productivity loss due to pneumococcal diseases among the pediatric population in Thailand using productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs).
METHODS: A decision analytic model was used to estimate the burden of pneumococcal diseases among the current Thai population aged 0-5 years and followed up until aged 99 years or death. Base-case analysis compared years of life and PALYs lost to pneumococcal diseases. Scenario analyses investigated the benefits of prevention with pneumococcal conjugated vaccine 13 (PCV 13). All health outcomes were discounted at 3% per annum.
RESULTS: The base-case analysis estimated that 453,401 years of life and 457,598 PALYs would be lost to pneumococcal diseases, equating to a loss of US$5586 (95% CI 3338-10,302) million. Vaccination with PCV13 at birth was estimated to save 82,609 years of life and 93,759 PALYs, which equated to US$1144 (95% CI 367-2591) million in economic benefits. The incidence of pneumonia in those aged 0-4 years, vaccine efficacy, and the assumed period of protection were key determinants of the health economic outputs.
CONCLUSIONS: The disease and financial burden of pneumococcal diseases in Thailand is significant, but a large proportion of this is potentially preventable with vaccination.
METHODS: This study included PD patients along with their caregivers and was undertaken at the Malaysian Parkinson's Disease Association from June 2016 to November 2016. Clinical features of PD patients were assessed using the Movement Disorder Society revised Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale; the Hoehn and Yahr stage and the Schwab and England Activities of Daily Living Scale were used to assess the severity and the ability of PD patients respectively. QoL of PD patients was measured using the Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire-39 (PDQ-39). The revised version of the Zarit Burden Interview assessed caregiver burden.
RESULTS: At least one of the clinical features affected PD patients' QoL, and at least one of the QoL domains affected the caregivers' burden. Clinical features "saliva and drooling" and "dyskinesia" explained 29% of variance in QoL of PD patients. The QoL domains "stigma," along with "emotional well-being" explained 48.6% of variance in caregivers' burden.
CONCLUSIONS: The clinical features "saliva and drooling" and "dyskinesia" impacted the QoL of PD patients, and the QoL domains "stigma" and "emotional well-being" of PD patients impacted their caregivers' burden.
OBJECTIVE: To assist with achieving these goals and to inform the development of a national strategic plan for Malaysia, we estimated the long-term burden incurred by the care and management of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We compared cumulative healthcare costs and disease burden under different treatment cascade scenarios.
METHODS: We attached direct costs for the management/care of chronically HCV-infected patients to a previously developed clinical disease progression model. Under assumptions regarding disease stage-specific proportions of model-predicted HCV patients within care, annual numbers of patients initiated on antiviral treatment and distribution of treatments over stage, we projected the healthcare costs and disease burden [in disability-adjusted life-years (DALY)] in 2018-2040 under four treatment scenarios: (A) no treatment/baseline; (B) pre-2018 standard of care (pegylated interferon/ribavirin); (C) gradual scale-up in direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment uptake that does not meet the WHO 2030 treatment uptake target; (D) scale-up in DAA treatment uptake that meets the WHO 2030 target.
RESULTS: Scenario D, while achieving the WHO 2030 target and averting 253,500 DALYs compared with the pre-2018 standard of care B, incurred the highest direct patient costs over the period 2018-2030: US$890 million (95% uncertainty interval 653-1271). When including screening programme costs, the total cost was estimated at US$952 million, which was 12% higher than the estimated total cost of scenario C.
CONCLUSIONS: The scale-up to meet the WHO 2030 target may be achievable with appropriately high governmental commitment to the expansion of HCV screening to bring sufficient undiagnosed chronically infected patients into the treatment pathway.