Displaying publications 61 - 80 of 99 in total

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  1. Inayat-Hussain SH, Ibrahim HA, Siew EL, Rajab NF, Chan KM, G T Williams, et al.
    Chem Biol Interact, 2010 Mar 19;184(1-2):310-2.
    PMID: 20025857 DOI: 10.1016/j.cbi.2009.12.009
  2. Hishamshah M, Ahmad N, Mohd Ibrahim H, Nur Halim NA, Nawi S, Amran F
    J Med Microbiol, 2018 Jun;67(6):806-813.
    PMID: 29724267 DOI: 10.1099/jmm.0.000750
    Purpose. In this study, we aim to describe and compare the demographical, clinical and laboratory features of leptospirosis and dengue co-infections (LDCI) against single leptospirosis infections in Malaysia.Methodology. Data of patients admitted to various hospitals in Malaysia from 2011 to 2015 diagnosed with leptospirosis in our laboratory were obtained from their admission records. Co-infection with dengue was determined by collecting dengue serology results. Multivariate analysis and multiple logistic regression were used to differentiate features between single leptospirosis infection and confirmed LDCI.Results/Key findings. Only 602 (29.11 %) out of 2068 leptospira-positive patients were concurrently tested for dengue during their admission in which 44 (7.31 %) patients had positive non-structural protein 1 (confirmed LDCI) while 140 (23.26 %) were positive for dengue IgM (probable LDCI) with the highest number of cases recorded in high-density suburban districts. Myalgia and arthralgia were the only significant distinguishing clinical feature of LDCI while significant laboratory features were thrombocytopenia and high levels of alanine and aspartate transaminases. Only thrombocytopenia displayed a predictive value for LDCI from analysis of multiple logistic regression. Death occurred in 19 (3.16 %) patients in this dataset studied but only three (0.50 %) were attributed to LDCI.Conclusion. There is a considerable prevalence of LDCI in this country of which overlapping demographic, clinical and laboratory presentations pose diagnostic and therapeutic challenges. Efforts to raise awareness regarding LDCI, better access to diagnostic services and further prospective studies are warranted.
  3. Haslinda MS, Aiyub Z, Bakar NK, Tohar N, Musa Y, Abdullah NR, et al.
    Trop Biomed, 2015 Mar;32(1):129-39.
    PMID: 25801263
    An antiplasmodial screening of Phyllanthus debilis and Phyllanthus urinaria was carried out. The medicinal plants were extracted and evaluated for in vitro antiplasmodial activity against D10 (chloroquine-sensitive, CQS) and Gombak A (chloroquine-resistant, CQR) strains of Plasmodium falciparum. The methanolic crudes from the soxhlet extraction were active against both strains however, P. urinaria (IC50 8.9 μg/ml with CQR strain) exhibited better anti-malarial activity compared to P. debilis (IC50 12.2 μg/ml with CQR strain). Furthermore, the methanolic crude of P. urinaria obtained by the cold extraction has good anti-malarial activity towards CQS (IC50 4.1 μg/ml). The concentration of macronutrients (calcium and magnesium) and trace metals (copper, manganese, iron and zinc) from three Phyllanthus species i.e. P. debilis Klein ex Wild., Phyllanthus niruri L., P. urinaria L. and Alpinia conchigera Griff. were determined using microwave digestion method and analyzed by Flame Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy. Standard Reference Material 1547 (peach leaves) was used to validate the method throughout this study. The recovery values were in the range of 80% to 120% which were in very good agreement with the certified values. The three Phyllanthus species and leaves of A. conchigera showed the highest concentration of calcium compared to other metals and macronutrients studied. The significant presence of all the important macronutrients and trace metals which are essential for human health and well-being substantiate their use medicinally in traditional practices.
  4. Abdullah M, Choo CW, Alias H, Abdul Rahman EJ, Mohd Ibrahim H, Jamal R, et al.
    Hematology, 2017 Aug;22(7):386-391.
    PMID: 28292214 DOI: 10.1080/10245332.2017.1299417
    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: DNA hypermethylation has been linked to poor treatment outcome in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Genes differentially methylated in the chemoresponsive pre-B-ALL compared to chemoresistant pre-B-ALL cases provide potential prognostic markers.

    METHODS: DNA methylation profiles of five B-ALL childhood patients who achieved morphological complete remission (chemoresponsive) and five B-ALL patients who did not (chemoresistant) after induction treatments as well as four normal controls were compared on 27 000 CpG sites microarray chips. Subsequently, methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction (MSP) on selected hypermethylated genes was conducted on an additional 37 chemoresponsive and 9 chemoresistant B-ALL samples and 2 normal controls.

    RESULTS: Both methods were found to be highly correlated. Unsupervised principal component analysis showed that the chemotherapy-responsive and -resistant B-ALL patients could be segregated from one another. Selection of segregated genes at high stringency identified two potential genes (CDH11 and ADAMTSL5). MSP analysis on the larger cohort of samples (42 chemoresponsive, 14 chemoresistant B-ALL samples and 6 normal controls) revealed significantly higher rates of hypermethylation in chemoresistant samples for ADAMTSL5 (93 vs. 38%; p = 0.0001) and CDH11 (79% vs. 40%, p 

  5. Ngim CF, Ibrahim H, Abdullah N, Lai NM, Tan RKM, Ng CS, et al.
    Med J Malaysia, 2019 Jun;74(3):219-225.
    PMID: 31256177
    BACKGROUND: Thalassaemia is a public health burden in Malaysia and its prevention faces many challenges. In this study, we aimed to assess the effectiveness of a web-based educational module in improving knowledge and attitudes about thalassaemia prevention amongst Malaysian young adults.

    METHODS: We designed an interactive web-based educational module in the Malay language wherein videos were combined with text and pictorial visual cues. Malaysians aged 18-40 years old who underwent the module had their knowledge and attitudes assessed at baseline, post-intervention and at 6-month follow-up using a selfadministered validated questionnaire.

    RESULTS: Sixty-five participants: 47 Malays (72.3%), 15 Chinese (23.1%), three Indians (4.6%) underwent the module. Questionnaires were completed at baseline (n=65), postintervention (n=65) and at 6-month follow-up (n=60). Out of a total knowledge score of 21, significant changes were recorded across three time-points- median scores were 12 at pre-intervention, 19 at post-intervention and 16 at 6-month follow-up (p<0.001). Post-hoc testing comparing preintervention and 6-month follow-up scores showed significant retention of knowledge (p<0.001). Compared to baseline, attitudes at 6-month follow-up showed an increased acceptance for "marriage avoidance between carriers" (pre-intervention 20%, 6-month follow-up 48.3%, p<0.001) and "prenatal diagnosis" (pre-intervention 73.8%, 6-month follow-up 86.2%, p=0.008). Acceptance for selective termination however, remained low without significant change (pre-intervention 6.2%, 6-month follow-up 16.7%, p=0.109).

    CONCLUSION: A web-based educational module appears effective in improving knowledge and attitudes towards thalassaemia prevention and its incorporation in thalassaemia prevention programs is potentially useful in Malaysia and countries with a high internet penetration rate.

  6. Sulieman A, Mayhoub F, Ibrahim HS, Omer H, Alkhorayef M, Abolaban FA, et al.
    Radiat Prot Dosimetry, 2021 Oct 12;195(3-4):314-318.
    PMID: 34265851 DOI: 10.1093/rpd/ncab107
    The objective of this study is to estimate the annual effective dose for cardiologists and nurses by measuring Hp(10) and Hp(0.07) during cardiac catheterization procedures. A total of 16 staffs members were working in interventional cardiology during 1 year at a tertiary hospital. The occupational dose was measured using calibrated thermo-luminescent dosemeters (TLD-100, LiF:Mg,Ti). The overall mean and range of the annual Hp(10) and Hp(0.07) (mSv) for cardiologists were 3.7 (0.13-14.5) and 3.2 (0.21-14.7), respectively. Cardiologists were frequently exposed to higher doses compared with nurses and technologists. The exposure showed wide variations, which depend on occupation and workload. Staff is adhered to radiation protection guidelines regarding shielding the trunk, thyroid shield, thus appropriately protected. Lens dose measurement is recommended to ensure that dose limit is not exceeded.
  7. Awang K, Ibrahim H, Rosmy Syamsir D, Mohtar M, Mat Ali R, Azah Mohamad Ali N
    Chem Biodivers, 2011 Apr;8(4):668-73.
    PMID: 21480512 DOI: 10.1002/cbdv.201000225
    The essential oils from the leaves and rhizomes of Alpinia pahangensis Ridl., collected from Pahang, Peninsular Malaysia, were obtained by hydrodistillation, and their chemical compositions were determined by GC and GC/MS analyses. The major components of the rhizome oil were γ-selinene (11.60%), β-pinene (10.87%), (E,E)-farnesyl acetate (8.65%), and α-terpineol (6.38%), while those of the leaf oil were β-pinene (39.61%), α-pinene (7.55%), and limonene (4.89%). The investigation of the antimicrobial activity of the essential oils using the broth microdilution technique revealed that the rhizome oil of A. pahangensis inhibited five Staphylococcus aureus strains with minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values between 0.08 and 0.31 μg/μl, and four selected fungi with MIC values between 1.25 and 2.50 μg/μl.
  8. Sivasothy Y, Ibrahim H, Paliany AS, Alias SA, Md Nor NR, Awang K
    Planta Med, 2013 Dec;79(18):1775-80.
    PMID: 24356874 DOI: 10.1055/s-0033-1351075
    The rhizomes of Alpinia pahangensis yielded a new bis-labdanic diterpene for which the name pahangensin C (1) was proposed along with twelve known analogues (2-13). The structure of 1 was elucidated via spectroscopic methods including 1D and 2D NMR techniques and LCMS-IT-TOF analysis. Compounds 2 and 12 were isolated for the first time from the genus Alpinia. This is the second occurrence of compounds 2 and 12 in the Zingiberaceae family. Selected analogues exhibited moderate to strong inhibitory activity against Staphylococcus aureus and Bacillus cereus.
  9. Lam NF, Ibrahim H, Sam YY, Mohammad Zakaria R, Poulsen AD
    PhytoKeys, 2022;211:81-92.
    PMID: 36760727 DOI: 10.3897/phytokeys.211.83985
    Two new species of Boesenbergia, B.sugudensis sp. nov. and B.truncata sp. nov. were discovered in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Boesenbergiasugudensis resembles B.imbakensis in that the leaf sheath of the plant is not thickened and in the anther thecae dehiscing by longitudinal slits, but differs in having a longer petiole and tubular calyx. Boesenbergiatruncata resembles B.orbiculata by the short petiole and a bilobed calyx, but differs by the truncate leaf base, the acute leaf apex, opposite leaves with a narrower lamina parallel to the ground and anther thecae dehiscing by pores. The new species are described and illustrated in detail.
  10. Lai CQ, Ibrahim H, Abdullah MZ, Abdullah JM, Suandi SA, Azman A
    Comput Intell Neurosci, 2019;2019:7895924.
    PMID: 31281339 DOI: 10.1155/2019/7895924
    Biometric is an important field that enables identification of an individual to access their sensitive information and asset. In recent years, electroencephalography- (EEG-) based biometrics have been popularly explored by researchers because EEG is able to distinct between two individuals. The literature reviews have shown that convolutional neural network (CNN) is one of the classification approaches that can avoid the complex stages of preprocessing, feature extraction, and feature selection. Therefore, CNN is suggested to be one of the efficient classifiers for biometric identification. Conventionally, input to CNN can be in image or matrix form. The objective of this paper is to explore the arrangement of EEG for CNN input to investigate the most suitable input arrangement of EEG towards the performance of EEG-based identification. EEG datasets that are used in this paper are resting state eyes open (REO) and resting state eyes close (REC) EEG. Six types of data arrangement are compared in this paper. They are matrix of amplitude versus time, matrix of energy versus time, matrix of amplitude versus time for rearranged channels, image of amplitude versus time, image of energy versus time, and image of amplitude versus time for rearranged channels. It was found that the matrix of amplitude versus time for each rearranged channels using the combination of REC and REO performed the best for biometric identification, achieving validation accuracy and test accuracy of 83.21% and 79.08%, respectively.
  11. Ibrahim HM, Awang IP, Alexander DJ, Manvell RJ, Aini I, Ibrahim AL
    Vet Rec, 1990 Nov 24;127(21):528.
    PMID: 2281590
  12. Lai CQ, Ibrahim H, Abd Hamid AI, Abdullah MZ, Azman A, Abdullah JM
    Comput Intell Neurosci, 2020;2020:8923906.
    PMID: 32256555 DOI: 10.1155/2020/8923906
    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is one of the injuries that can bring serious consequences if medical attention has been delayed. Commonly, analysis of computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is required to determine the severity of a moderate TBI patient. However, due to the rising number of TBI patients these days, employing the CT scan or MRI scan to every potential patient is not only expensive, but also time consuming. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate the possibility of using electroencephalography (EEG) with computational intelligence as an alternative approach to detect the severity of moderate TBI patients. EEG procedure is much cheaper than CT or MRI. Although EEG does not have high spatial resolutions as compared with CT and MRI, it has high temporal resolutions. The analysis and prediction of moderate TBI from EEG using conventional computational intelligence approaches are tedious as they normally involve complex preprocessing, feature extraction, or feature selection of the signal. Thus, we propose an approach that uses convolutional neural network (CNN) to automatically classify healthy subjects and moderate TBI patients. The input to this computational intelligence system is the resting-state eye-closed EEG, without undergoing preprocessing and feature selection. The EEG dataset used includes 15 healthy volunteers and 15 moderate TBI patients, which is acquired at the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kelantan, Malaysia. The performance of the proposed method has been compared with four other existing methods. With the average classification accuracy of 72.46%, the proposed method outperforms the other four methods. This result indicates that the proposed method has the potential to be used as a preliminary screening for moderate TBI, for selection of the patients for further diagnosis and treatment planning.
  13. Abdullah F, Subramanian P, Ibrahim H, Abdul Malek SN, Lee GS, Hong SL
    J Insect Sci, 2015;15(1):175.
    PMID: 25688085 DOI: 10.1093/jisesa/ieu175
    Dual choice bioassays were used to evaluate the antifeedant property of essential oil and methanolic extract of Alpinia galanga (L.) (locally known as lengkuas) against two species of termites, Coptotermes gestroi (Wasmann) and Coptotermes curvignathus (Holmgren) (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae). A 4-cm-diameter paper disc treated with A. galanga essential oil and another treated with either methanol or hexane as control were placed in a petri dish with 10 termites. Mean consumption of paper discs (miligram) treated with 2,000 ppm of essential oil by C. gestroi was 3.30 ± 0.24 mg and by C. curvignathus was 3.32 ± 0.24 mg. A. galanga essential oil showed significant difference in antifeedant effect, 2,000 ppm of A. galanga essential oil was considered to be the optimum concentration that gave maximum antifeedant effect. The essential oil composition was determined using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The major component of the essential oil was 1,8-cineol (61.9%). Antifeedant bioassay using 500 ppm of 1,8-cineol showed significant reduction in paper consumption by both termite species. Thus, the bioactive agent in A. galangal essential oil causing antifeeding activity was identified as 1,8-cineol. Repellent activity shows that 250 ppm of 1,8-cineol caused 50.00 ± 4.47% repellency for C. gestroi, whereas for C. curvignathus 750 ppm of 1,8-cineol was needed to cause similar repellent activity (56.67 ± 3.33%). C. curvignathus is more susceptible compare to C. gestroi in Contact Toxicity study, the lethal dose (LD50) of C. curvignathus was 945 mg/kg, whereas LD50 value for C. gestroi was 1,102 mg/kg. Hence 1,8-cineol may be developed as an alternative control against termite in sustainable agriculture practices.
  14. Qureshi F, Yusuf M, Ibrahim H, Kamyab H, Chelliapan S, Pham CQ, et al.
    Environ Res, 2023 Jul 15;229:115963.
    PMID: 37105287 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.115963
    Hydrogen (H2) is a possible energy transporter and feedstock for energy decarbonization, transportation, and chemical sectors while reducing global warming's consequences. The predominant commercial method for producing H2 today is steam methane reforming (SMR). However, there is still room for development in process intensification, energy optimization, and environmental concerns related to CO2 emissions. Reactors using metallic membranes (MRs) can handle both problems. Compared to traditional reactors, MRs operates at substantially lower pressures and temperatures. As a result, capital and operational costs may be significantly cheaper than traditional reactors. Furthermore, metallic membranes (MMs), particularly Pd and its alloys, naturally permit only H2 permeability, enabling the production of a stream with a purity of up to 99.999%. This review describes several methods for H2 production based on the energy sources utilized. SRM with CO2 capture and storage (CCUS), pyrolysis of methane, and water electrolysis are all investigated as process technologies. A debate based on a color code was also created to classify the purity of H2 generation. Although producing H2 using fossil fuels is presently the least expensive method, green H2 generation has the potential to become an affordable alternative in the future. From 2030 onward, green H2 is anticipated to be less costly than blue hydrogen. Green H2 is more expensive than fossil-based H2 since it uses more energy. Blue H2 has several tempting qualities, but the CCUS technology is pricey, and blue H2 contains carbon. At this time, almost 80-95% of CO2 can be stored and captured by the CCUS technology. Nanomaterials are becoming more significant in solving problems with H2 generation and storage. Sustainable nanoparticles, such as photocatalysts and bio-derived particles, have been emphasized for H2 synthesis. New directions in H2 synthesis and nanomaterials for H2 storage have also been discussed. Further, an overview of the H2 value chain is provided at the end, emphasizing the financial implications and outlook for 2050, i.e., carbon-free H2 and zero-emission H2.
  15. Menon BS, Juraida E, Ibrahim H, Mohamed M, Ho C, Khuzaiah R
    PMID: 19058612
    The aims of this study were to determine the types of cancers and hematological disorders in patients attending a pediatric hematology-oncology clinic. This was a prospective study at the Pediatric Institute, General Hospital Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia from June 2005-November 2006. During the 18-month study, 803 patients attended the clinic, 730 had oncological problems and 73 had hematological problems. The age range was from 2 months to 28 years (median 6 years). The patients were Malay (66%), Chinese (23%), Indian (10%) and other races (1%). Of the oncological patients, 51% had either leukemia (n=293) or lymphoma (n=77). The other most common diagnoses were retinoblastoma, followed by Wilm's tumor and germ cell tumors. Six patients (0.8%) developed a second malignant neoplasm. Of the hematological patients, 60% had platelet disorders, most commonly chronic immune thrombocytopenic purpura. Twenty-four per cent had bone marrow failure and 16% had red cell disorders.

    Study site: Pediatric Institute, General Hospital Kuala Lumpur
  16. Chen SW, Wang SL, Qi X, Ng TF, Ibrahim H
    Multimed Tools Appl, 2023 Apr 26.
    PMID: 37362685 DOI: 10.1007/s11042-023-15407-9
    The Coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19, has shifted the medical paradigm from face-to-face to telehealth. Telehealth has become a vital resource to contain the virus spread and ensure the continued care of patients. In terms of preventing cardiovascular diseases, automating electrocardiogram (ECG) classification is a promising telehealth intervention. The healthcare service ensures that patient care is appropriate, comfortable, and accessible. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have demonstrated promising results in ECG categorization, which require high accuracy and short training time to ensure healthcare quality. This study proposes a one-dimensional-CNN (1D-CNN) arrhythmia classification based on the differential evolution (DE) algorithm to optimize the accuracy of ECG classification and training time. The performance of 1D-CNNs of different activation functions are optimized based on the standard DE algorithm. Finally, based on MIT-BIH and SCDH arrhythmia databases, the performances of optimized and unoptimized 1D-CNN are compared and analysed. Results show that the 1D-CNN optimized by the DE has higher accuracy in heartbeats classification. The optimized 1D-CNN improves from 97.6% to 99.5% on MIT-BIH and from 80.2% to 88.5% on SCDH. Therefore, the optimized 1D-CNN shows improvements of 1.9% and 8.3% in the two datasets, respectively. In addition, compared with the unoptimized 1D-CNN based on the same parameter settings, the optimized 1D-CNN has less training time. Under the conditions of ReLU function and 10 epochs, the training takes 9.22 s on MIT-BIH and 10.35 s on SCDH, reducing training time by 67.2% and 64.2%, respectively.
  17. Menon BS, Juraida E, Alagaratnam J, Mohammad M, Ibrahim H, George TM, et al.
    J Pediatr Hematol Oncol, 2007 Jan;29(1):2-4.
    PMID: 17230058
    In the last decade, chemotherapy in combination with focal therapy (chemoreduction) has been increasingly used in intraocular retinoblastoma to avoid enucleation and radiotherapy. The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility and outcome of chemoreduction in Malaysian children with retinoblastoma. This was a prospective study from August 2001 to January 2006. Twenty children (25 eyes) were given 4 cycles of chemoreduction, after which the response was assessed. Fourteen eyes showed a complete response, 10 eyes showed a partial response, and 1 eye had progressive disease. Twelve eyes developed progressive disease later, 9 after an initial complete response and 3 after a partial response. Overall, progressive disease occurred in 52%. There were 2 treatment failures, in Reese-Elsworth groups 3 and 4. Both eyes required enucleation. One eye in group 5 required second line chemotherapy to achieve a complete response. No eyes were irradiated. Five children (25%) defaulted follow-up, one of whom returned with disseminated disease. In conclusion, 4 cycles of chemoreduction achieved a durable complete response in only 12% of eyes. Chemoreduction is feasible in Malaysia but requires good patient compliance and close follow-up.
  18. Ahamad M, Ibrahim H, Bujang MK, Sah SA, Mohamad N, Nor SM, et al.
    J Med Entomol, 2013 Jan;50(1):140-6.
    PMID: 23427663
    A comprehensive 8-yr survey of acarine ectoparasites (ticks and mites) of bats was carried out in 18 localities from 2002 to 2009. Most of the surveys were conducted during 14 national biodiversity scientific expeditions throughout Malaysia. The objective was to identify acarines of known public health importance from bats and thus determine whether there is any potential public health risk in Malaysia. Trapping of bats was conducted using Harp traps and Mist nets. In total, 1,579 individuals comprising of 6 families and 52 species of bats were examined alive. In general, 25.6% of the bats were infested with acarines. Infestation rates of ticks, mesostigmatid mites, and chiggers on bats examined were 0.4, 10.4, and 14.7%, respectively. Their prevalence and mean intensity were tabulated. Genera of ticks extracted were Amblyomma, Dermacentor, Ixodes, and Ornithodoros. Of these genera, only two species can be identified to species level and they are Amblyomma cordiferum and Ixodes simplex. In total, 8 genera and 15 species of mesostigmatid mites were found; the species were Ancystropus eonycteris, Ancystropus zeleborii, Echinonysus nasutus, Laelaps aingworthae, Laelaps nuttalli, Laelaps sanguisugus, Laelaps sculpturatus, Longolaelaps longulus, Longolaelaps whartonii, Meristaspis lateralis, Meristaspis macroglossi, Paraperiglischrus rhinolophinus, Spinturnix acuminatus, Spinturnix americanus, and Spinturnix bakeri. Chiggers on bats were represented by 12 genera and 6 species; the species identified were Gahrliepia fletcheri, Riedlinia lipoxena, Trombigastia cadei, Walchiella impar, Walchiella oudemansi, and Whartonia caobangensis. The study produced an up-to-date list of acarine ectoparasites of bats in Malaysia where a total of 38 genera and 47 species of acarines were listed. Findings of the study demonstrated that 5 genera and 1 species of acarines that may pose potential health risks, can be found on bats.
  19. Arshad NM, In LL, Soh TL, Azmi MN, Ibrahim H, Awang K, et al.
    Oncotarget, 2015 Jun 30;6(18):16151-67.
    PMID: 26158863
    Previous in vitro and in vivo studies have reported that 1'-S-1'-acetoxychavicol acetate (ACA) isolated from rhizomes of the Malaysian ethno-medicinal plant Alpinia conchigera Griff (Zingiberaceae) induces apoptosis-mediated cell death in tumour cells via dysregulation of the NF-κB pathway. However there were some clinical development drawbacks such as poor in vivo solubility, depreciation of biological activity upon exposure to an aqueous environment and non-specific targeting of tumour cells. In the present study, all the problems above were addressed using the novel drug complex formulation involving recombinant human alpha fetoprotein (rhAFP) and ACA.
  20. Singh S, Murali Sundram B, Rajendran K, Boon Law K, Aris T, Ibrahim H, et al.
    J Infect Dev Ctries, 2020 09 30;14(9):971-976.
    PMID: 33031083 DOI: 10.3855/jidc.13116
    INTRODUCTION: The novel coronavirus infection has become a global threat affecting almost every country in the world. As a result, it has become important to understand the disease trends in order to mitigate its effects. The aim of this study is firstly to develop a prediction model for daily confirmed COVID-19 cases based on several covariates, and secondly, to select the best prediction model based on a subset of these covariates.

    METHODOLOGY: This study was conducted using daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 collected from the official Ministry of Health, Malaysia (MOH) and John Hopkins University websites. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the training data of observed cases from 22 January to 31 March 2020, and subsequently validated using data on cases from 1 April to 17 April 2020. The ARIMA model satisfactorily forecasted the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from 18 April 2020 to 1 May 2020 (the testing phase).

    RESULTS: The ARIMA (0,1,0) model produced the best fit to the observed data with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 16.01 and a Bayes Information Criteria (BIC) value of 4.170. The forecasted values showed a downward trend of COVID-19 cases until 1 May 2020. Observed cases during the forecast period were accurately predicted and were placed within the prediction intervals generated by the fitted model.

    CONCLUSIONS: This study finds that ARIMA models with optimally selected covariates are useful tools for monitoring and predicting trends of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia.

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