METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic). Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G) and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F). If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived.
CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Sentinel and study sites collected nasopharyngeal specimens for diagnostic detection, virus isolation, antigenic characterization, sequencing and antiviral susceptibility analysis from patients who fulfilled case definitions for influenza-like illness, acute lower respiratory infections and event-based surveillance. Each year in Cambodia, influenza viruses were detected mainly from June to November, during the rainy season. Antigenic analysis show that A/H1N1pdm09 isolates belonged to the A/California/7/2009-like group. Circulating A/H3N2 strains were A/Brisbane/10/2007-like in 2009 before drifting to A/Perth/16/2009-like in 2010 and 2011. The Cambodian influenza B isolates from 2009 to 2011 all belonged to the B/Victoria lineage represented by the vaccine strains B/Brisbane/60/2008 and B/Malaysia/2506/2004. Sequences of the M2 gene obtained from representative 2009-2011 A/H3N2 and A/H1N1pdm09 strains all contained the S31N mutation associated with adamantanes resistance except for one A/H1N1pdm09 strain isolated in 2011 that lacked this mutation. No reduction in the susceptibility to neuraminidase inhibitors was observed among the influenza viruses circulating from 2009 to 2011. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that A/H3N2 strains clustered each year to a distinct group while most A/H1N1pdm09 isolates belonged to the S203T clade.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In Cambodia, from 2009 to 2011, influenza activity occurred throughout the year with peak seasonality during the rainy season from June to November. Seasonal influenza epidemics were due to multiple genetically distinct viruses, even though all of the isolates were antigenically similar to the reference vaccine strains. The drug susceptibility profile of Cambodian influenza strains revealed that neuraminidase inhibitors would be the drug of choice for influenza treatment and chemoprophylaxis in Cambodia, as adamantanes are no longer expected to be effective.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with ALL were treated with either the HKSGALL93 or the Malaysia-Singapore (Ma-Spore) 2003 chemotherapy protocols. The records of 197 patients who completed the intensive phase of treatment, defined as the period of treatment from induction, central nervous system (CNS)-directed therapy to reinduction from June 2000 to January 2010 were retrospectively reviewed.
RESULTS: There were a total of 587 episodes of febrile neutropaenia in 197 patients, translating to an overall rate of 2.98 episodes per patient. A causative pathogen was isolated in 22.7% of episodes. An equal proportion of Gram-positive bacteria (36.4%) and Gram-negative bacteria (36.4%) were most frequently isolated followed by viral pathogens (17.4%), fungal pathogens (8.4%) and other bacteria (1.2%). Fungal organisms accounted for a higher proportion of clinically severe episodes of febrile neutropaenia requiring admission to the high-dependency or intensive care unit (23.1%). The overall mortality rate from all episodes was 1.5%.
CONCLUSION: Febrile neutropaenia continues to be of concern in ALL patients undergoing intensive chemotherapy. The majority of episodes will not have an identifiable causative organism. Gram-positive bacteria and Gram-negative bacteria were the most common causative pathogens identified. With appropriate antimicrobial therapy and supportive management, the overall risk of mortality from febrile neutropaenia is extremely low.
METHODS: 2010-2015 incidence data for influenza A (IAV), influenza B (IBV), respiratory syncytial (RSV) and parainfluenza (PIV) virus infections were collected from 18 sites (14 countries), consisting of local (n = 6), regional (n = 9) and national (n = 3) laboratories using molecular diagnostic methods. Each site submitted monthly virus incidence data, together with details of their patient populations tested and diagnostic assays used.
RESULTS: For the Northern Hemisphere temperate countries, the IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks were 2-6 months out of phase with those in the Southern Hemisphere, with IAV having a sharp out-of-phase difference at 6 months, whereas IBV and RSV showed more variable out-of-phase differences of 2-6 months. The tropical sites Singapore and Kuala Lumpur showed fluctuating incidence of these viruses throughout the year, whereas subtropical sites such as Hong Kong, Brisbane and Sydney showed distinctive biannual peaks for IAV but not for RSV and PIV.
CONCLUSIONS: There was a notable pattern of synchrony of IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks globally, and within countries with multiple sampling sites (Canada, UK, Australia), despite significant distances between these sites.