METHODOLOGY: This study was conducted using daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 collected from the official Ministry of Health, Malaysia (MOH) and John Hopkins University websites. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the training data of observed cases from 22 January to 31 March 2020, and subsequently validated using data on cases from 1 April to 17 April 2020. The ARIMA model satisfactorily forecasted the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from 18 April 2020 to 1 May 2020 (the testing phase).
RESULTS: The ARIMA (0,1,0) model produced the best fit to the observed data with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 16.01 and a Bayes Information Criteria (BIC) value of 4.170. The forecasted values showed a downward trend of COVID-19 cases until 1 May 2020. Observed cases during the forecast period were accurately predicted and were placed within the prediction intervals generated by the fitted model.
CONCLUSIONS: This study finds that ARIMA models with optimally selected covariates are useful tools for monitoring and predicting trends of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of men aged above 40 years with no history of prostate cancer, prostate surgery, or 5α-reductase inhibitor treatment. Serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and total PV were measured in each subject. Potential sociodemographic and clinical variables including age, weight, comorbidities, and International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) were collected. Of 1034 subjects, 837 were used in building the PV calculator using regression analysis. The remaining 1/5 (n = 197) was used for model validation.
RESULTS: There were 1034 multiethnic Asian men (Chinese 52.9%, Malay 35.4%, and Indian 11.7%) with mean age of 60 ± 7.6 years. Average PV was 29.4 ± 13.0 mL while the overall mean of PSA was 1.7 ± 1.7 ng/mL. We identified age, IPSS, weight, and PSA (all P
METHODS: Tissues were collected from 80 patients with clinically detected prostate cancer and treated with radical prostatectomy. Cases were tested for ERG by immunohistochemistry using the mouse monoclonal antibody EP111. All blocks on 48 cases were tested in order to determine the extent of heterogeneity of ERG expression within individual cases. ERG expression was analysed in relation to patient age, ethnicity and tumour stage and grade.
RESULTS: Forty-six percent of cases were ERG positive. There was no significant association between ERG and tumour grade or stage. Sixty-nine percent of Indian patients had ERG positive tumours; this was significantly higher (p=0.031) than for Chinese (40%) and Malay (44%) patients. Heterogeneity of ERG expression, in which both positive and negative clones were present, was seen in 35% of evaluated cases. Evaluation by tumour foci showed younger patients had more ERG positive tumour foci than older patients (p=0.01). Indian patients were more likely to have the majority of tumour foci with ERG staining positively, compared to either Chinese or Malay patients (P <0.01).
CONCLUSION: In this study, tumour expression of ERG was more likely to occur in patients of Indian ethnicity.