MyMedR

Displaying publications 81 - 100 of 808 in total

Abstract:

Sort:

Rapid comparison of precipitation data between satellite and in situ observations

Ng CK, Kong RW, Foo GH, Khoo G

Environ Monit Assess, 2022 Dec 24;195(1):228.
PMID: 36565392 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-022-10789-z

The agriculture sector responsible for global food and nutrition security has an urgent need to examine climatic trends so that adaptations can be exercised in advance. Freely available dataset from satellite sources can greatly ease rainfall analysis, especially for smallholder farmers who typically operate under limited resources. Tests to determine their accuracy, however, are so far not deployed in tropical Southeast Asia. We compared in situ observations with dataset from the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) and the Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) in two sites located 180 km apart in the tropical Malay Peninsula for 30 days. We found that in situ precipitation values were markedly overestimated by GSMaP (34.9-67.5%) and POWER (180.5-289.2%), and the possible reasons are discussed. Nonetheless, we conclude that GSMaP remains the best hope for smallholder farmers and its dataset can still be used under the precaution of error margins determined by the practical method described herein.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Fulltext Hydrological Analysis of Batu Dam, Malaysia in the Urban Area: Flood and Failure Analysis Preparing for Climate Change

Allias Omar SM, Wan Ariffin WNH, Mohd Sidek L, Basri H, Moh Khambali MH, Ahmed AN

Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2022 Dec 09;19(24).
PMID: 36554413 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192416530

Extensive hydrological analysis is carried out to estimate floods for the Batu Dam, a hydropower dam located in the urban area upstream of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The study demonstrates the operational state and reliability of the dam structure based on hydrologic assessment of the dam. The surrounding area is affected by heavy rainfall and climate change every year, which increases the probability of flooding and threatens a dense population downstream of the dam. This study evaluates the adequacy of dam spillways by considering the latest Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) values of the concerned dams. In this study, the PMP estimations are applied using comparison of both statistical method by Hershfield and National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM) Envelope Curve as input for PMF establishments. Since the PMF is derived from the PMP values, the highest design flood standard can be applied to any dam, ensuring inflow into the reservoirs and limiting the risk of dam structural failure. Hydrologic modeling using HEC-HMS provides PMF values for the Batu dam. Based on the results, Batu Dam is found to have 200.6 m3/s spillway discharge capacities. Under PMF conditions, the Batu dam will not face overtopping since the peak outflow of the reservoir level is still below the crest level of the dam.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
Fulltext The Impact of Heatwaves on Mortality and Morbidity and the Associated Vulnerability Factors: A Systematic Review

Arsad FS, Hod R, Ahmad N, Ismail R, Mohamed N, Baharom M, et al.

Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2022 Dec 06;19(23).
PMID: 36498428 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192316356

BACKGROUND: This study aims to investigate the current impacts of extreme temperature and heatwaves on human health in terms of both mortality and morbidity. This systematic review analyzed the impact of heatwaves on mortality, morbidity, and the associated vulnerability factors, focusing on the sensitivity component.
METHODS: This systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 flow checklist. Four databases (Scopus, Web of Science, EBSCOhost, PubMed) were searched for articles published from 2012 to 2022. Those eligible were evaluated using the Navigation Guide Systematic Review framework.
RESULTS: A total of 32 articles were included in the systematic review. Heatwave events increased mortality and morbidity incidence. Sociodemographic (elderly, children, male, female, low socioeconomic, low education), medical conditions (cardiopulmonary diseases, renal disease, diabetes, mental disease), and rural areas were crucial vulnerability factors.
CONCLUSIONS: While mortality and morbidity are critical aspects for measuring the impact of heatwaves on human health, the sensitivity in the context of sociodemographic, medical conditions, and locality posed a higher vulnerability to certain groups. Therefore, further research on climate change and health impacts on vulnerability may help stakeholders strategize effective plans to reduce the effect of heatwaves.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
Fulltext The COVID-19 impact on air condition usage: a shift towards residential energy saving

Aliero MS, Pasha MF, Toosi AN, Ghani I

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2022 Dec;29(57):85727-85741.
PMID: 35001275 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-17862-z

The enforcement of the Movement Control Order to curtail the spread of COVID-19 has affected home energy consumption, especially HVAC systems. Occupancy detection and estimation have been recognized as key contributors to improving building energy efficiency. Several solutions have been proposed for the past decade to improve the precision performance of occupancy detection and estimation in the building. Environmental sensing is one of the practical solutions to detect and estimate occupants in the building during uncertain behavior. However, the literature reveals that the performance of environmental sensing is relatively poor due to the poor quality of the training dataset used in the model. This study proposed a smart sensing framework that combined camera-based and environmental sensing approaches using supervised learning to gather standard and robust datasets related to indoor occupancy that can be used for cross-validation of different machine learning algorithms in formal research. The proposed solution is tested in the living room with a prototype system integrated with various sensors using a random forest regressor, although other techniques could be easily integrated within the proposed framework. The primary implication of this study is to predict the room occupation through the use of sensors providing inputs into a model to lower energy consumption. The results indicate that the proposed solution can obtain data, process, and predict occupant presence and number with 99.3% accuracy. Additionally, to demonstrate the impact of occupant number in energy saving, one room with two zones is modeled each zone with air condition with different thermostat controller. The first zone uses IoFClime and the second zone uses modified IoFClime using a design-builder. The simulation is conducted using EnergyPlus software with the random simulation of 10 occupants and local climate data under three scenarios. The Fanger model's thermal comfort analysis shows that up to 50% and 25% energy can be saved under the first and third scenarios.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate
The impact of climate variables on marine fish production: an empirical evidence from Bangladesh based on autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

Begum M, Masud MM, Alam L, Mokhtar MB, Amir AA

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2022 Dec;29(58):87923-87937.
PMID: 35819668 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-21845-z

Several studies have highlighted the significant impact of climate change on agriculture. However, there have been little empirical enquiries into the impact of climate change on marine fish production, particularly in Bangladesh. Hence, this study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on marine fish production in Bangladesh using data from 1961 to 2019. Data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization, Bangladesh Meteorological Department, the World Development Indicators, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used to describe the dynamic link between CO2 emissions, average temperature, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), rainfall, sunshine, wind and marine fish production. The ARDL approach to cointegration revealed that SST (β = 0.258), rainfall (β =0.297), and sunshine (β =0.663) significantly influence marine fish production at 1% and 10% levels in the short run and at 1% level in the long run. The results also found that average temperature has a significant negative impact on fish production in both short and long runs. On the other hand, CO2 emissions have a negative impact on marine fish production in the short run. Specifically, for every 1% rise in CO2 emissions, marine fish production will decline by 0.11%. The findings of this study suggest that policymakers formulate better policy frameworks for climate change adaptation and sustainable management of marine fisheries at the national level. Research and development in Bangladesh's fisheries sector should also focus on marine fish species that can resist high sea surface temperatures, CO2 emissions, and average temperatures.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Fulltext Logged tropical forests have amplified and diverse ecosystem energetics

Malhi Y, Riutta T, Wearn OR, Deere NJ, Mitchell SL, Bernard H, et al.

Nature, 2022 Dec;612(7941):707-713.
PMID: 36517596 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05523-1

Old-growth tropical forests are widely recognized as being immensely important for their biodiversity and high biomass1. Conversely, logged tropical forests are usually characterized as degraded ecosystems2. However, whether logging results in a degradation in ecosystem functions is less clear: shifts in the strength and resilience of key ecosystem processes in large suites of species have rarely been assessed in an ecologically integrated and quantitative framework. Here we adopt an ecosystem energetics lens to gain new insight into the impacts of tropical forest disturbance on a key integrative aspect of ecological function: food pathways and community structure of birds and mammals. We focus on a gradient spanning old-growth and logged forests and oil palm plantations in Borneo. In logged forest there is a 2.5-fold increase in total resource consumption by both birds and mammals compared to that in old-growth forests, probably driven by greater resource accessibility and vegetation palatability. Most principal energetic pathways maintain high species diversity and redundancy, implying maintained resilience. Conversion of logged forest into oil palm plantation results in the collapse of most energetic pathways. Far from being degraded ecosystems, even heavily logged forests can be vibrant and diverse ecosystems with enhanced levels of ecological function.

Matched MeSH terms: Tropical Climate*
Fulltext Measuring Pro-Environmental Behavior Triggered by Environmental Values

Ahmat Zainuri N, Abd-Rahman N, Halim L, Chan MY, Mohd Bazari NN

Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2022 Nov 30;19(23).
PMID: 36498088 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192316013

Pro-environmental behavior in addressing climate change is influenced by multi-dimensional factors-knowledge, values, intention and sociodemographic background. Correlational studies between environmental values and environmental behaviors have not been able to determine values or behaviors that need to be given priority in future interventions. Therefore, this study firstly determined the environmental values and pro-environmental behavior that are easy or difficult to embrace by 152 respondents with low socioeconomic background. Secondly, we identified the extent pro-environmental behavior is triggered by environmental values. This survey study employs the Rasch analysis model. The respondents had difficulty in associating themselves with biospheric values however readily demonstrated consideration toward altruistic values, especially related to concerns for future generations. In terms of environmental conservation behavior, the respondents were not willing to relinquish comfort easily, such as giving up self-driving and taking public transportation or reducing usage of electricity. In addition, adults of low socioeconomic background find it difficult to endorse statements such as getting involved in campaigns related to environmental conservation. Thus, younger family members must be educated about conservation behaviors such as environmental campaigns commonly offered at schools, and these youngsters can be encouraged to extend their role by educating their parents.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels

Romanello M, Di Napoli C, Drummond P, Green C, Kennard H, Lampard P, et al.

Lancet, 2022 Nov 05;400(10363):1619-1654.
PMID: 36306815 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01540-9
Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
Protect global values of the Southern Ocean ecosystem

Brooks CM, Ainley DG, Jacquet J, Chown SL, Pertierra LR, Francis E, et al.

Science, 2022 Nov 04;378(6619):477-479.
PMID: 36264826 DOI: 10.1126/science.add9480

Climate change and fishing present dual threats.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
Fulltext Tiger sharks support the characterization of the world's largest seagrass ecosystem

Gallagher AJ, Brownscombe JW, Alsudairy NA, Casagrande AB, Fu C, Harding L, et al.

Nat Commun, 2022 Nov 01;13(1):6328.
PMID: 36319621 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33926-1

Seagrass conservation is critical for mitigating climate change due to the large stocks of carbon they sequester in the seafloor. However, effective conservation and its potential to provide nature-based solutions to climate change is hindered by major uncertainties regarding seagrass extent and distribution. Here, we describe the characterization of the world's largest seagrass ecosystem, located in The Bahamas. We integrate existing spatial estimates with an updated empirical remote sensing product and perform extensive ground-truthing of seafloor with 2,542 diver surveys across remote sensing tiles. We also leverage seafloor assessments and movement data obtained from instrument-equipped tiger sharks, which have strong fidelity to seagrass ecosystems, to augment and further validate predictions. We report a consensus area of at least 66,000 km2 and up to 92,000 km2 of seagrass habitat across The Bahamas Banks. Sediment core analysis of stored organic carbon further confirmed the global relevance of the blue carbon stock in this ecosystem. Data from tiger sharks proved important in supporting mapping and ground-truthing remote sensing estimates. This work provides evidence of major knowledge gaps in the ocean ecosystem, the benefits in partnering with marine animals to address these gaps, and underscores support for rapid protection of oceanic carbon sinks.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
The plight and promise of mental health providers in the face of a warming planet: perspectives and experiences from the Philippines

Aruta JJBR, Salcedo SS, Guilaran J, Guinto RR

Int Rev Psychiatry, 2022 08;34(5):530-533.
PMID: 36165758 DOI: 10.1080/09540261.2022.2123701

A growing body of research shows the inimical impact of climate change on people's mental health. However, attention to mental health providers at the frontlines is rather sparse, especially in climate-vulnerable countries. This commentary aims to present the perspectives and experiences of mental health providers within the context of climate change in the Philippines. Specifically, this paper explicates the challenges faced by mental health providers in trying to address the increasing climate-related distress experienced by many Filipinos and the recent progress in promoting climate change and mental health nexus in the country. The recommendations offered in this commentary will hopefully provide the basis for a more comprehensive mental health framework that incorporates climate change and supports mental health providers in their pursuit to preserve Filipino mental health on a warming planet.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
The role of mental health professionals in the climate crisis: an urgent call to action

Li C, Lawrance EL, Morgan G, Brown R, Greaves N, Krzanowski J, et al.

Int Rev Psychiatry, 2022 08;34(5):563-570.
PMID: 36165755 DOI: 10.1080/09540261.2022.2097005

The climate and ecological crisis will constitute the defining public health challenge of the twenty-first century, posing an unprecedented global threat to all determinants of health, and to healthcare delivery systems. We believe that mental health professionals have a crucial role to play in responding to this crisis. Whilst responding to the mental health consequences of the climate crisis will remain a key role for us as mental health professionals, we argue that our remit goes beyond this, and should include advancing public understanding of the climate crisis, highlighting its impact on physical and mental wellbeing, and advocating for systemic changes to limit its impending harms. This paper is an urgent call to action for all mental health professionals to take up a role in the context of the climate and ecological crisis. This paper will describe the relationship between mental health and climate change, and frame it within wider systemic and conceptual frameworks. It will demonstrate that as mental health professionals we are well placed to act as leaders of change-arguing that we have a duty to do so-and suggest actions that can be implemented depending on interests, skill sets and opportunities.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
Fulltext Demographic consequences of heterogeneity in conspecific density dependence among mast-fruiting tropical trees

O'Brien MJ, Hector A, Kellenberger RT, Maycock CR, Ong R, Philipson CD, et al.

Proc Biol Sci, 2022 Jun 08;289(1976):20220739.
PMID: 35703055 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.0739

The role of conspecific density dependence (CDD) in the maintenance of species richness is a central focus of tropical forest ecology. However, tests of CDD often ignore the integrated effects of CDD over multiple life stages and their long-term impacts on population demography. We combined a 10-year time series of seed production, seedling recruitment and sapling and tree demography of three dominant Southeast Asian tree species that adopt a mast-fruiting phenology. We used these data to construct individual-based models that examine the effects of CDD on population growth rates (λ) across life-history stages. Recruitment was driven by positive CDD for all species, supporting the predator satiation hypothesis, while negative CDD affected seedling and sapling growth of two species, significantly reducing λ. This negative CDD on juvenile growth overshadowed the positive CDD of recruitment, suggesting the cumulative effects of CDD during seedling and sapling development has greater importance than the positive CDD during infrequent masting events. Overall, CDD varied among positive, neutral and negative effects across life-history stages for all species, suggesting that assessments of CDD on transitions between just two stages (e.g. seeds seedlings or juveniles mature trees) probably misrepresent the importance of CDD on population growth and stability.

Matched MeSH terms: Tropical Climate
The role of economic complexity in the environmental Kuznets curve of MINT economies: evidence from method of moments quantile regression

Adebayo TS, Rjoub H, Akadiri SS, Oladipupo SD, Sharif A, Adeshola I

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2022 Apr;29(16):24248-24260.
PMID: 34822076 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-17524-0

In the face of mounting climate change challenges, reducing emissions has emerged as a key driver of environmental sustainability and sustainable growth. Despite the fact that research has been conducted on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), few researchers have analyzed this in the light of economic complexity. Thus, the current research assesses the effect of economic complexity on CO2 emissions in the MINT nations while taking into account the role of financial development, economic growth, and energy consumption for the period between 1990 and 2018. Using the novel method of moments quantile regression (MMQR) with fixed effects, an inverted U-shape interrelationship is found between economic growth and CO2 emissions, thus validating the EKC hypothesis. Energy consumption and economic complexity increase CO2 emissions significantly from the 1st to 9th quantiles. Furthermore, there is no significant interconnection between financial development and CO2 emissions across all quantiles (1st to 9th). The outcomes of the causality test reveal a feedback causal connection between economic growth and CO2, while a unidirectional causality is established from economic complexity and energy use to CO2 emissions in the MINT nations. Based on the findings, we believe that governments should stimulate the financial sector to provide domestic credit facilities to industrialists, investors, and other business enterprises on more favorable terms so that innovative technologies for environmental protection can be implemented with other policy recommendations.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Fulltext Climate change and COVID-19: shared challenges, divergent perspectives, and proposed collaborative solutions

Wahaj Z, Alam MM, Al-Amin AQ

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2022 Mar;29(11):16739-16748.
PMID: 34989992 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-18402-5

Pandemics leave their mark quickly. This is true for all pandemics, including COVID-19. Its multifarious presence has wreaked havoc on people's physical, economic, and social life since late 2019. Despite the need for social science to save lives, it is also critical to ensure future generations are protected. COVID-19 appeared as the world grappled with the epidemic of climate change. This study suggests policymakers and practitioners address climate change and COVID-19 together. This article offers a narrative review of both pandemics' impacts. Scopus and Web of Science were sought databases. The findings are reported analytically using important works of contemporary social theorists. The analysis focuses on three interconnected themes: technology advancements have harmed vulnerable people; pandemics have macro- and micro-dimensions; and structural disparities. To conclude, we believe that collaborative effort is the key to combating COVID-19 and climate change, while understanding the lessons learnt from the industrialised world. Finally, policymakers can decrease the impact of global catastrophes by addressing many socioeconomic concerns concurrently.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Fulltext A photovoice assessment for illuminating the role of inland fisheries to livelihoods and the local challenges experienced through the lens of fishers in a climate-driven lake of Malawi

Simmance FA, Simmance AB, Kolding J, Schreckenberg K, Tompkins E, Poppy G, et al.

Ambio, 2022 Mar;51(3):700-715.
PMID: 34170476 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-021-01583-1

Small-scale inland capture fisheries provide an important source of nutritious food, employment and income to millions of people in developing countries, particularly in rural environments where limited alternatives exist. However, the sector is one of most under-valued fisheries sectors and is increasingly experiencing environmental change. This study adopts a Sustainable Livelihoods Approach and investigates how important a fluctuating inland fishery is to livelihoods, and how local perceptions on challenges corresponds to global evidence. Through an innovative participatory method; photovoice, the lived experiences and perceptions of fishers are depicted. The findings illuminate the valuable role of the sector to food and nutrition security and the complex nexus with vulnerability to climate change. The study responds to the call for more local level assessments of the impacts of climate change on inland fisheries in data-limited environments, and the value of the sector in underpinning the Sustainable Development Goals.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Assessing the effect of climate change and financial development on agricultural production in ASEAN-4: the role of renewable energy, institutional quality, and human capital as moderators

Chandio AA, Shah MI, Sethi N, Mushtaq Z

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2022 Feb;29(9):13211-13225.
PMID: 34585355 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-16670-9

This paper examines the effect of climate change and financial development on agricultural production in ASEAN-4, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand from 1990 to 2016. Further, we explore the role of renewable energy, institutional quality, and human capital on agricultural production. Since the shocks in one country affect another country, we use second-generation modeling techniques to find out the relationship among the variables. The Westerlund (2007) cointegration tests confirm long-run relationship among the variables. The results from cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model reveal that climate change negatively affects agricultural production; on the other hand, renewable energy, human capital, and institutional quality affect positively agricultural production. Moreover, renewable energy utilization, human capital, and intuitional quality moderates the effect of carbon emission on agricultural production. In addition, a U-shaped relationship exists between financial development and agricultural production, suggesting that financial development improves agricultural production only after reaching a certain threshold. Hence, this study suggests that ASEAN-4 countries must adopt flexible financial and agricultural policies so that farmers would be benefitted and agricultural production can be increased.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
Fulltext Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning

Birkmann J, Jamshed A, McMillan JM, Feldmeyer D, Totin E, Solecki W, et al.

Sci Total Environ, 2022 Jan 10;803:150065.
PMID: 34525713 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150065

Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and historical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
Impact of climate change on biodiversity loss: global evidence

Habibullah MS, Din BH, Tan SH, Zahid H

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2022 Jan;29(1):1073-1086.
PMID: 34341937 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-15702-8

The present study investigates the impact of climate change on biodiversity loss using global data consisting of 115 countries. In this study, we measure biodiversity loss using data on the total number of threatened species of amphibians, birds, fishes, mammals, mollusks, plants, and reptiles. The data were compiled from the Red List published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). For climate change variables, we have included temperature, precipitation, and the number of natural disaster occurrences. As for the control variable, we have considered governance indicator and the level of economic development. By employing ordinary least square with robust standard error and robust regression (M-estimation), our results suggest that all three climate change variables - temperature, precipitation, and the number of natural disasters occurrences - increase biodiversity loss. Higher economic development also impacted biodiversity loss positively. On the other hand, good governance such as the control of corruption, regulatory quality, and rule of law reduces biodiversity loss. Thus, practicing good governance, promoting conservation of the environment, and the control of greenhouse gasses would able to mitigate biodiversity loss.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
Fulltext Data-driven models for atmospheric air temperature forecasting at a continental climate region

Alomar MK, Khaleel F, Aljumaily MM, Masood A, Razali SFM, AlSaadi MA, et al.

PLoS One, 2022;17(11):e0277079.
PMID: 36327280 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0277079

Atmospheric air temperature is the most crucial metrological parameter. Despite its influence on multiple fields such as hydrology, the environment, irrigation, and agriculture, this parameter describes climate change and global warming quite well. Thus, accurate and timely air temperature forecasting is essential because it provides more important information that can be relied on for future planning. In this study, four Data-Driven Approaches, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Regression Tree (RT), Quantile Regression Tree (QRT), ARIMA, Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR), have been applied to forecast short-, and mid-term air temperature (daily, and weekly) over North America under continental climatic conditions. The time-series data is relatively long (2000 to 2021), 70% of the data are used for model calibration (2000 to 2015), and the rest are used for validation. The autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions have been used to select the best input combination for the forecasting models. The quality of predicting models is evaluated using several statistical measures and graphical comparisons. For daily scale, the SVR has generated more accurate estimates than other models, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE = 3.592°C), Correlation Coefficient (R = 0.964), Mean Absolute Error (MAE = 2.745°C), and Thiels' U-statistics (U = 0.127). Besides, the study found that both RT and SVR performed very well in predicting weekly temperature. This study discovered that the duration of the employed data and its dispersion and volatility from month to month substantially influence the predictive models' efficacy. Furthermore, the second scenario is conducted using the randomization method to divide the data into training and testing phases. The study found the performance of the models in the second scenario to be much better than the first one, indicating that climate change affects the temperature pattern of the studied station. The findings offered technical support for generating high-resolution daily and weekly temperature forecasts using Data-Driven Methodologies.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*

Filters

Please provide feedback to Administrator (afdal@afpm.org.my)

External Links