METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic). Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G) and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F). If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived.
CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
Materials and Methods: The study utilized abattoir records spanning a period of 10 years (2004-2013). The records indicated that a total of 1,08,638 heads of cattle comprising n = 56,070 males and n = 52,570 females were slaughtered at the municipal abattoir during the study period.
Result: Of these heads, n = 1230 (1.13%) (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07, 1.19) had tuberculous lesions. The annual occurrence during the study period varied significantly (p<0.001) from 0.53% (95% CI: 0.40, 0.67) to 1.87% (95% CI: 1.66, 2.10) in 2010 and 2012, respectively. Females had a significantly higher (p<0.001) prevalence of 2.10% (95% CI: 1.98, 2.23) compared with the males 0.23% (95% CI: 0.19, 0.27). The distribution of suspected gross bTB lesions in different organs showed 11.87% in the lungs, 5.93% in the liver, 1.14% in the heart, and 0.49% accounted for generalized bTB. However, none was observed on the lymph nodes and intestines.
Conclusion: It can be concluded that bTB persists in Bauchi State with annual variations during the study period. This study highlights the importance of meat inspection as an important tool for detecting the presence of bTB lesions.