OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk, persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those countries who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. We provide novel indicators to measure disease transmission.
METHODS: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 330 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in East Asia and the Pacific as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.
RESULTS: The standard surveillance metrics for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar were concerning as they had the largest new caseloads at 4301, 2588, and 1387, respectively. When looking at the acceleration of new COVID-19 infections, we found that French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had rates at 3.17, 0.22, and 0.06 per 100,000. These three countries also ranked highest in terms of jerk at 15.45, 0.10, and 0.04, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Two of the most populous countries in East Asia and the Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, have alarming surveillance metrics. These two countries rank highest in new infections in the region. The highest rates of speed, acceleration, and positive upwards jerk belong to French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, and may result in explosive growth. While all countries in East Asia and the Pacific need to be cautious about reopening their countries since outbreaks are likely to occur in the second wave of COVID-19, the country of greatest concern is the Philippines. Based on standard and enhanced surveillance, the Philippines has not gained control of the COVID-19 epidemic, which is particularly troubling because the country ranks 4th in population in the region. Without extreme and rigid social distancing, quarantines, hygiene, and masking to reverse trends, the Philippines will remain on the global top 5 list of worst COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in high morbidity and mortality. The second wave will only exacerbate existing conditions and increase COVID-19 transmissions.
METHODS: The socioeconomic trends in smoking were analyzed using data from cross-sectional National Health and Morbidity Surveys for the years 1996, 2006, and 2011. Household per capita income was used as a measure of socioeconomic position. As a measure of inequality, the concentration index that quantified the degree of socioeconomic inequality in a health outcome was computed. Smoking was assessed in current and former smokers. The study population was examined by gender, region, and age group.
RESULTS: This study found a trend of an increasingly higher smoking prevalence among the poor and higher cessation rates among the rich. With the exception of younger women in Peninsular Malaysia, the socioeconomic gradient in current smoking is concentrated among the poor. For former smokers, especially men, distributions across the years were mostly concentrated among the rich.
CONCLUSION: It is important to ensure that health policies, programs, and interventions consider the potential impact of the socioeconomic patterning in smoking on equity in health.
IMPLICATIONS: Findings on the socioeconomic gradient in smoking and cessation from Malaysia across a period of rapid economic development will contribute to addressing the paucity of knowledge on the socioeconomic gradient of smoking and cessation in other progressing LMICs. This study provides evidence from an upper-middle-income country, of an increasing trend of smoking among the poor and an increasing trend of cessation rates among the rich, particularly for men. We found opposing trends for younger adult women in the more developed, Peninsular Malaysia. More rich young women were found to have taken up smoking compared to socioeconomically less advantaged young women.
DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The authors conducted a gap analysis on recommended practices gathered from the literature and current practices gathered through semi-structured interviews with Malaysian medical personnel. A life cycle approach was adopted covering mercury use: input, storage, handling, accident, waste disposal and governance phases.
FINDINGS: The authors found that there are significant gaps between recommended and current mercury management practices. Analysis indicates improper mercury management as the main contributor to these gaps. The authors found from recommended practices that core components needing improvement include: mercury management action plan, mercury use identification team, purchasing policy, proper guidelines and monitoring systems.
PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: This study helps us to understand mercury management practices and suggests essential steps to establish a mercury-free medical facility.
ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This study explored the gaps between recommended and current mercury management practices in a medical facility and contributes to the Minamata Convention on Mercury aspirations.