Chan HLY 1 , Chen CJ 2 , Omede O 3 , Al Qamish J 4 , Al Naamani K 5 , Bane A 6 Show all authors , Tan SS 7 , Simonova M 8 , Cardenas I 9 , Derbala M 10 , Akin O 3 , Phillips RO 11 , Abdelmageed MK 12 , Abdulla M 13 , Adda D 14 , Al Baqali A 15 , Al Dweik N 10 , Al Ejji K 10 , Al Ghazzawi I 16 , Al Kaabi S 10 , Al Sadadi M 13 , Al Salman J 13 , AlBadri M 10 , Al-Busafi SA 17 , Al-Romaihi HE 18 , Ampofo W 19 , Antonov K 20 , Anyaike C 3 , Arome F 21 , Blach S 22 , Borodo MM 23 , Brandon SM 22 , Bright B 24 , Butt MT 10 , Chen DS 25 , Chen PJ 26 , Chien RN 27 , Chuang WL 28 , Cuellar D 29 , Elbardiny AA 18 , Estes C 22 , Farag E 18 , Fung J 30 , Gamkrelidze I 22 , Garcia V 31 , Genov J 32 , Ghandour Z 33 , Ghuloom M 13 , Gomez B 34 , Gunter J 22 , Habeeb J 13 , Hajelssedig O 10 , Hamoudi W 35 , Himatt SM 18 , Hrstic I 36 , Hu CC 27 , Huang CF 28 , Hui YT 37 , Jahis R 38 , Jelev D 20 , John AK 10 , Kaliaskarova KS 39 , Kamel Y 10 , Kao JH 40 , Khamis J 13 , Khattabi H 41 , Khoudri I 42 , Konysbekova A 43 , Kotzev I 44 , Lai MS 45 , Lao WC 46 , Layden J 47 , Lee MH 48 , Lesi O 49 , Li M 50 , Lo A 51 , Loo CK 52 , Lukšić B 53 , Maaroufi A 42 , Malu AO 54 , Mateva L 20 , Mitova R 32 , Mohamed R 55 , Morović M 56 , Murphy K 22 , Mustapha B 57 , Nersesov A 58 , Ngige E 3 , Njouom R 59 , Njoya O 60 , Nonković D 61 , Obekpa S 21 , Oguche S 62 , Okolo EE 63 , Omuemu C 64 , Ondoa P 65 , Opare-Sem O 11 , Owusu-Ofori S 66 , Prokopenko YN 67 , Razavi H 22 , Razavi-Shearer D 22 , Razavi-Shearer K 22 , Redae B 68 , Reic T 69 , Rinke de Wit T 70 , Rios C 71 , Robbins S 22 , Roberts LR 72 , Sanad SJ 33 , Schmelzer JD 22 , Sharma M 10 , Su TH 40 , Sultan K 10 , Tchernev K 73 , Tsang OTY 74 , Tsang S 75 , Tzeuton C 76 , Ugoeze S 77 , Uzochukwu B 78 , Vi R 67 , Vince A 79 , Wani HU 10 , Wong VWS 1 , Workneh A 80 , Yacoub R 10 , Yesmembetov KI 81 , Youbi M 42 , Yuen MF 82 , Nde H 22

Affiliations 

  • 1 Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
  • 2 Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
  • 3 Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria
  • 4 Gastroenterolgy Clinic, IBN Al-Nafees Hospital, Manama, Bahsrain
  • 5 Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Armed Forces Hospital, Muscat, Oman
  • 6 Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Addis Ababa University Medical School, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  • 7 Department of Hepatology, Selayang Hospital, Selangor, Malaysia
  • 8 Clinic of Gastroenterology, Military Medical Academy, Sofia, Bulgaria
  • 9 Communicable Diseases Division, Ministry of Health and Social Protection, Bogota, Colombia
  • 10 Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
  • 11 Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
  • 12 Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
  • 13 Salmaniya Medical Complex, Manama, Bahrain
  • 14 Civil Society Network on Hepatitis, Abuja, Nigeria
  • 15 Al Kindi Specialised Hospital, Manama, Bahrain
  • 16 GI and Hepatology Department, Jordan Royal Medical Services, Amman, Jordan
  • 17 Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Sultan Qaboos University Hospital, Muscat, Oman
  • 18 Ministry of Public Health Qatar, Doha, Qatar
  • 19 Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana
  • 20 University Hospital "St. Ivan Rilski", Sofia, Bulgaria
  • 21 Advocacy for the Prevention of Hepatitis in Nigeria, Jos, Nigeria
  • 22 Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Lafayette, CO, USA
  • 23 Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Kano, Nigeria
  • 24 LiveWell Initiative (LWI), Lagos, Nigeria
  • 25 Hepatitis Research Center, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
  • 26 National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
  • 27 Liver Research Unit, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, Taiwan
  • 28 Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung City, Taiwan
  • 29 Department of Epidemiology and Demography, Ministry of Health and Social Protection, Bogota, Colombia
  • 30 Department of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
  • 31 Ministry of Public Health, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
  • 32 University Hospital "Queen Joanna", Sofia, Bulgaria
  • 33 BDF Hospital, Royal Medical Services, Riffa, Bahrain
  • 34 Pan American Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA
  • 35 Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Al Bashir Hospital, Amman, Jordan
  • 36 General Hospital Pula, Pula, Croatia
  • 37 Department of Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China
  • 38 Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health, Putrajaya, Malaysia
  • 39 Ministry of Healthcare and Social Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana, Kazakhstan
  • 40 Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei City, Taiwan
  • 41 Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office, World Health Organization, Cairo, Egypt
  • 42 Department of Epidemiology and Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Rabat, Morocco
  • 43 Republican Diagnostic Center, Astana, Kazakhstan
  • 44 University Hospital "St. Marina", Varna, Bulgaria
  • 45 Department of Medicine, North District Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China
  • 46 Department of Medicine, Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China
  • 47 Department of Public Health Sciences, Loyola University Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
  • 48 Institute of Clinical Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan
  • 49 University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
  • 50 Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Tuen Mun Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China
  • 51 Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
  • 52 Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Kwong Wah Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China
  • 53 Clinical Department of Infectious Diseases, Split University Hospital and Split University Medical School, Split, Croatia
  • 54 Benue State University Teaching Hospital, Makurdi, Nigeria
  • 55 University of Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
  • 56 Department of Infectious Diseases, Zadar General Hospital, Zadar, Croatia
  • 57 IBN SINA Hospital, Rabat, Morocco
  • 58 National Research Institute of Cardiology and Internal Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan
  • 59 Virology Department, Centre Pasteur of Cameroon, Yaounde, Cameroon
  • 60 Research Laboratory on Viral Hepatitis & Health Communication, Faculty of Medicine, University of Yaoundé, Yaoundé, Cameroon
  • 61 Department of Epidemiology, Institute of Public Health, County of Dalmatia, Split, Croatia
  • 62 Department of Pediatrics, University of Jos, Jos, Nigeria
  • 63 Beacon Youth Initiative, Lafia, Nigeria
  • 64 University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria
  • 65 Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
  • 66 Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital, Kumasi, Ghana
  • 67 Republican Coordination Center for Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Astana, Kazakhstan
  • 68 Ethiopian Gastroenterological Association, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  • 69 European Liver Patients Association, Sint-Truiden, Belgium
  • 70 PharmAccess Foundation, Department of Global Health, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
  • 71 Department of Health Promotion and Disease Prevention, Ministry of Health and Social Protection, Bogota, Colombia
  • 72 Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
  • 73 "Sofiamed" Hospital, Sofia, Bulgaria
  • 74 Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Princess Margaret Hospital Authority, Hong Kong, SAR, China
  • 75 Department of Medicine, Tseung Kwan O Hospital, Hong Kong, SAR, China
  • 76 Faculty of Medicine and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon
  • 77 Federal Medical Centre, Jalingo, Nigeria
  • 78 Institute of Public Health, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria
  • 79 Medical School University of Zagreb, University Hospital of Infectious Diseases Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
  • 80 Non-Communicable Diseases Programme, World Health Organization, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  • 81 National Scientific Center of Oncology and Transplantology, Astana, Kazakhstan
  • 82 Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
J. Viral Hepat., 2017 10;24 Suppl 2:25-43.
PMID: 29105283 DOI: 10.1111/jvh.12760

Abstract

Factors influencing the morbidity and mortality associated with viremic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection change over time and place, making it difficult to compare reported estimates. Models were developed for 17 countries (Bahrain, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Qatar and Taiwan) to quantify and characterize the viremic population as well as forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2015 to 2030. Model inputs were agreed upon through expert consensus, and a standardized methodology was followed to allow for comparison across countries. The viremic prevalence is expected to remain constant or decline in all but four countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Jordan and Oman); however, HCV-related morbidity and mortality will increase in all countries except Qatar and Taiwan. In Qatar, the high-treatment rate will contribute to a reduction in total cases and HCV-related morbidity by 2030. In the remaining countries, however, the current treatment paradigm will be insufficient to achieve large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality.

* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.