Fulltext

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Murray CJ 1 , Ortblad KF 1 , Guinovart C 1 , Lim SS 1 , Wolock TM 1 , Roberts DA 1 Show all authors , Dansereau EA 1 , Graetz N 1 , Barber RM 1 , Brown JC 1 , Wang H 1 , Duber HC 1 , Naghavi M 1 , Dicker D 1 , Dandona L 2 , Salomon JA 3 , Heuton KR 1 , Foreman K 4 , Phillips DE 1 , Fleming TD 1 , Flaxman AD 1 , Phillips BK 1 , Johnson EK 1 , Coggeshall MS 1 , Abd-Allah F 5 , Abera SF 6 , Abraham JP 7 , Abubakar I 8 , Abu-Raddad LJ 9 , Abu-Rmeileh NM 10 , Achoki T 11 , Adeyemo AO 12 , Adou AK 13 , Adsuar JC 14 , Agardh EE 15 , Akena D 16 , Al Kahbouri MJ 17 , Alasfoor D 17 , Albittar MI 18 , Alcalá-Cerra G 19 , Alegretti MA 20 , Alemu ZA 21 , Alfonso-Cristancho R 22 , Alhabib S 23 , Ali R 24 , Alla F 25 , Allen PJ 26 , Alsharif U 27 , Alvarez E 28 , Alvis-Guzman N 29 , Amankwaa AA 30 , Amare AT 31 , Amini H 32 , Ammar W 33 , Anderson BO 22 , Antonio CA 34 , Anwari P 35 , Arnlöv J 36 , Arsenijevic VS 37 , Artaman A 38 , Asghar RJ 39 , Assadi R 40 , Atkins LS 41 , Badawi A 42 , Balakrishnan K 43 , Banerjee A 44 , Basu S 45 , Beardsley J 46 , Bekele T 47 , Bell ML 48 , Bernabe E 49 , Beyene TJ 50 , Bhala N 51 , Bhalla A 52 , Bhutta ZA 53 , Abdulhak AB 54 , Binagwaho A 55 , Blore JD 56 , Basara BB 57 , Bose D 58 , Brainin M 59 , Breitborde N 60 , Castañeda-Orjuela CA 61 , Catalá-López F 62 , Chadha VK 63 , Chang JC 64 , Chiang PP 65 , Chuang TW 66 , Colomar M 67 , Cooper LT 68 , Cooper C 69 , Courville KJ 70 , Cowie BC 71 , Criqui MH 72 , Dandona R 73 , Dayama A 74 , De Leo D 75 , Degenhardt L 76 , Del Pozo-Cruz B 77 , Deribe K 50 , Des Jarlais DC 78 , Dessalegn M 79 , Dharmaratne SD 80 , Dilmen U 81 , Ding EL 82 , Driscoll TR 83 , Durrani AM 84 , Ellenbogen RG 85 , Ermakov SP 86 , Esteghamati A 87 , Faraon EJ 34 , Farzadfar F 88 , Fereshtehnejad SM 89 , Fijabi DO 90 , Forouzanfar MH 1 , Fra Paleo U 14 , Gaffikin L 91 , Gamkrelidze A 92 , Gankpé FG 93 , Geleijnse JM 94 , Gessner BD 95 , Gibney KB 96 , Ginawi IA 97 , Glaser EL 98 , Gona P 99 , Goto A 100 , Gouda HN 101 , Gugnani HC 102 , Gupta R 103 , Gupta R 104 , Hafezi-Nejad N 87 , Hamadeh RR 105 , Hammami M 106 , Hankey GJ 107 , Harb HL 33 , Haro JM 108 , Havmoeller R 109 , Hay SI 24 , Hedayati MT 110 , Pi IB 111 , Hoek HW 112 , Hornberger JC 113 , Hosgood HD 114 , Hotez PJ 115 , Hoy DG 116 , Huang JJ 48 , Iburg KM 117 , Idrisov BT 118 , Innos K 119 , Jacobsen KH 120 , Jeemon P 121 , Jensen PN 22 , Jha V 52 , Jiang G 122 , Jonas JB 123 , Juel K 124 , Kan H 125 , Kankindi I 55 , Karam NE 126 , Karch A 127 , Karema CK 128 , Kaul A 129 , Kawakami N 130 , Kazi DS 131 , Kemp AH 132 , Kengne AP 133 , Keren A 134 , Kereselidze M 92 , Khader YS 135 , Khalifa SE 136 , Khan EA 137 , Khang YH 138 , Khonelidze I 92 , Kinfu Y 139 , Kinge JM 140 , Knibbs L 101 , Kokubo Y 141 , Kosen S 142 , Defo BK 143 , Kulkarni VS 144 , Kulkarni C 145 , Kumar K 146 , Kumar RB 147 , Kumar GA 73 , Kwan GF 148 , Lai T 149 , Balaji AL 56 , Lam H 150 , Lan Q 151 , Lansingh VC 152 , Larson HJ 153 , Larsson A 36 , Lee JT 154 , Leigh J 155 , Leinsalu M 119 , Leung R 156 , Li Y 157 , Li Y 157 , De Lima GM 158 , Lin HH 159 , Lipshultz SE 160 , Liu S 161 , Liu Y 162 , Lloyd BK 163 , Lotufo PA 132 , Machado VM 164 , Maclachlan JH 71 , Magis-Rodriguez C 165 , Majdan M 166 , Mapoma CC 167 , Marcenes W 168 , Marzan MB 169 , Masci JR 170 , Mashal MT 171 , Mason-Jones AJ 172 , Mayosi BM 173 , Mazorodze TT 174 , Mckay AC 175 , Meaney PA 176 , Mehndiratta MM 177 , Mejia-Rodriguez F 111 , Melaku YA 178 , Memish ZA 179 , Mendoza W 180 , Miller TR 181 , Mills EJ 182 , Mohammad KA 183 , Mokdad AH 1 , Mola GL 184 , Monasta L 185 , Montico M 185 , Moore AR 186 , Mori R 187 , Moturi WN 188 , Mukaigawara M 189 , Murthy KS 73 , Naheed A 190 , Naidoo KS 191 , Naldi L 192 , Nangia V 193 , Narayan KM 162 , Nash D 194 , Nejjari C 195 , Nelson RG 196 , Neupane SP 197 , Newton CR 198 , Ng M 1 , Nisar MI 199 , Nolte S 27 , Norheim OF 200 , Nowaseb V 201 , Nyakarahuka L 16 , Oh IH 202 , Ohkubo T 203 , Olusanya BO 204 , Omer SB 162 , Opio JN 205 , Orisakwe OE 206 , Pandian JD 207 , Papachristou C 27 , Caicedo AJ 29 , Patten SB 208 , Paul VK 209 , Pavlin BI 210 , Pearce N 153 , Pereira DM 211 , Pervaiz A 212 , Pesudovs K 213 , Petzold M 214 , Pourmalek F 215 , Qato D 216 , Quezada AD 111 , Quistberg DA 22 , Rafay A 217 , Rahimi K 24 , Rahimi-Movaghar V 218 , Ur Rahman S 219 , Raju M 220 , Rana SM 221 , Razavi H 222 , Reilly RQ 223 , Remuzzi G 224 , Richardus JH 225 , Ronfani L 185 , Roy N 226 , Sabin N 227 , Saeedi MY 179 , Sahraian MA 228 , Samonte GM 229 , Sawhney M 230 , Schneider IJ 231 , Schwebel DC 232 , Seedat S 233 , Sepanlou SG 234 , Servan-Mori EE 111 , Sheikhbahaei S 87 , Shibuya K 235 , Shin HH 236 , Shiue I 237 , Shivakoti R 238 , Sigfusdottir ID 239 , Silberberg DH 240 , Silva AP 241 , Simard EP 242 , Singh JA 232 , Skirbekk V 140 , Sliwa K 243 , Soneji S 244 , Soshnikov SS 245 , Sreeramareddy CT 246 , Stathopoulou VK 247 , Stroumpoulis K 248 , Swaminathan S 249 , Sykes BL 250 , Tabb KM 251 , Talongwa RT 252 , Tenkorang EY 253 , Terkawi AS 254 , Thomson AJ 255 , Thorne-Lyman AL 256 , Towbin JA 257 , Traebert J 258 , Tran BX 259 , Dimbuene ZT 260 , Tsilimbaris M 261 , Uchendu US 262 , Ukwaja KN 263 , Uzun SB 81 , Vallely AJ 264 , Vasankari TJ 265 , Venketasubramanian N 266 , Violante FS 267 , Vlassov VV 268 , Vollset SE 269 , Waller S 270 , Wallin MT 271 , Wang L 161 , Wang X 272 , Wang Y 273 , Weichenthal S 236 , Weiderpass E 274 , Weintraub RG 275 , Westerman R 276 , White RA 277 , Wilkinson JD 278 , Williams TN 4 , Woldeyohannes SM 279 , Wong JQ 280 , Xu G 281 , Yang YC 282 , Yano Y 283 , Yentur GK 57 , Yip P 284 , Yonemoto N 285 , Yoon SJ 154 , Younis M 286 , Yu C 287 , Jin KY 288 , El Sayed Zaki M 289 , Zhao Y 290 , Zheng Y 291 , Zhou M 161 , Zhu J 273 , Zou XN 292 , Lopez AD 56 , Vos T 1

Affiliations 

  • 1 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA
  • 2 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA; Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
  • 3 Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
  • 4 Imperial College London, London, UK
  • 5 Faculty of Medicine, Cairo-University, Cairo, Egypt
  • 6 College of Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  • 7 University of Texas School of Medicine San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, USA
  • 8 University College London, London, UK
  • 9 Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar, Doha, Qatar
  • 10 Institute of Community and Public Health-Birzeti University, Ramallah, West Bank, Occupied Palestinian Territory
  • 11 Ministry of Health, Gaborone, Botswana
  • 12 Evidence For Action (MamaYe), Freetown, Western Area, Sierra Leone
  • 13 Association Ivoirienne Pour Le Bien Etre Familial, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
  • 14 University of Extremadura, Cáceres, Spain
  • 15 Institution of Public Health Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden
  • 16 Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
  • 17 Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman
  • 18 Independent, Damascus, Syria
  • 19 Grupo de Investigación en Ciencias de la Salud y Neurociencias (CISNEURO), Cartagena de Indias, Colombia
  • 20 Facultad de Medicina, Departamento de Medicina Preventiva y Social, Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay
  • 21 Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
  • 22 University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
  • 23 National Guard Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  • 24 University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
  • 25 School of Public Health, University of Lorraine, Nancy, France
  • 26 Ministry of Health, Belmopan, Cayo, Belize
  • 27 Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
  • 28 Government, Madrid, Spain
  • 29 Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia
  • 30 Albany State University, Albany, GA, USA
  • 31 Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
  • 32 Kurdistan Environmental Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Kurdistan, Iran
  • 33 Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon
  • 34 College of Public Health, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines
  • 35 UNFPA, Kabul, Afghanistan
  • 36 Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
  • 37 Institute of Microbiology and Immunology, School of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
  • 38 Median Inc, Windsor, ON, Canada
  • 39 South Asian Public Health Forum, Islamabad, Pakistan
  • 40 Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
  • 41 Ministry of Health, Wellness, Human Services and Gender Relations, Castries, St. Lucia
  • 42 Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
  • 43 Sri Ramachandra University, Chennai, India
  • 44 University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
  • 45 Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
  • 46 Oxford University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
  • 47 Madawalabu University, Bale Goba, Ethiopia
  • 48 Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
  • 49 King's College London, London, UK
  • 50 Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  • 51 Wellington Hospital, Wellington, New Zealand
  • 52 Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
  • 53 Aga Khan University Medical Center, Nairobi, Kenya
  • 54 University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City, MO, USA
  • 55 Ministry of Health, Kigali, Rwanda
  • 56 University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  • 57 General Directorate of Health Research, Ankara, Turkey
  • 58 World Bank, Washington, DC, USA
  • 59 Danube-University Krems, Krems, Austria
  • 60 University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
  • 61 Colombian National Health Observatory, Instituto Nacional de Salud, Bogota, Colombia
  • 62 Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacovigilance, Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Agency (AEMPS), Ministry of Health, Madrid, Spain
  • 63 National Tuberculosis Institute, Bangalore, India
  • 64 National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
  • 65 General Practice and Primary Health Care Academic Centre, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  • 66 Department of Parasitology, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Center for International Tropical Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
  • 67 UNICEM, Montevideo, Uruguay
  • 68 Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
  • 69 MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
  • 70 Hospital Dr. Gustavo N. Collado, Chitre, Herrera, Panama
  • 71 Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, North Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  • 72 University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • 73 Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
  • 74 Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA
  • 75 Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  • 76 University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  • 77 University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
  • 78 Beth Israel Medical Center, New York, NY, USA
  • 79 Africa Medical and Research Foundation in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  • 80 University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
  • 81 Ministry of Health, Ankara, Turkey
  • 82 Harvard School of Public Health, Cambridge, MA, USA
  • 83 Sydney School of Public Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  • 84 National Institutes of Health, Montgomery Village, MD, USA
  • 85 Harborview and University of Washington Medicine, Seattle, WA, USA
  • 86 The Institute of Social and Economic Studies of Population at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
  • 87 Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 88 Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 89 Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society (NVS), Stockholm, Sweden
  • 90 Heller Graduate School, Waltham, MA, USA
  • 91 Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
  • 92 National Centre for Disease Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia
  • 93 Clinique Coopérative de Parakou, Parakou, Borgou, Benin
  • 94 Division of Human Nutrition, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
  • 95 Agence de Medecine Preventive, Paris, France
  • 96 Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  • 97 College of Medicine, University of Hail, Hail, Saudi Arabia
  • 98 Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Waltham, MA, USA
  • 99 University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA, USA
  • 100 Department of Diabetes Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
  • 101 University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  • 102 Saint James School of Medicine, Kralendijk, Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles
  • 103 Fortis Escorts Hospital, Jaipur, India
  • 104 Kanawha Charleston Health Department, Charleston, WV, USA
  • 105 Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain
  • 106 Wayne County Department of Health and Human Services, Detroit, MI, USA
  • 107 School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
  • 108 Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, University of Barcelona, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain
  • 109 Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
  • 110 Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Mazandaran, Iran
  • 111 National Institute of Public Health of Mexico, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
  • 112 Parnassia Psychiatric Institute, The Hague, Netherlands
  • 113 Cedar Associates, Menlo Park, CA, USA
  • 114 Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA
  • 115 Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
  • 116 School of Population Health, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Public Health Division, Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia
  • 117 Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
  • 118 Brandeis University, Waltham, MA, USA
  • 119 National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia
  • 120 George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA
  • 121 Centre for Chronic Disease Control, New Delhi, India
  • 122 Tianjin Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention, Tianjin, China
  • 123 Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim of the University of Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
  • 124 The National Institute of Public Health, Copenhagen, Denmark
  • 125 Fudan University, Shanghai, China
  • 126 University of Balamand, Beirut, Lebanon
  • 127 Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig, Germany; German Center for Infection Research (DZIF), Hannover-Braunschweig site, Germany
  • 128 Malaria & Other Parasitic Diseases Division, Kigali, Rwanda
  • 129 Oklahoma State University, Tulsa, OK, USA
  • 130 School of Public Health, Tokyo, Japan
  • 131 University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
  • 132 University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
  • 133 South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
  • 134 Cardiology, Hadassah Ein Kerem University Hospital, Jerusalem, Israel
  • 135 Jordan University of Science and Technology, Al-Ramtha, Jordan
  • 136 Supreme Council of Health, Doha, Qatar
  • 137 Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Punjab, Pakistan
  • 138 Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
  • 139 University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia
  • 140 Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
  • 141 Department of Preventive Cardiology, Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiologic Informatics, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Osaka, Japan
  • 142 Center for Community Empowerment, Health Policy & Humanities, NIHRD, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • 143 University of Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada
  • 144 Arkansas State University, Jonesboro, AR, USA
  • 145 Rajrajeshwari Medical College & Hospital, Bangalore, Karnataka, India
  • 146 International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
  • 147 Indian Institute of Public Health, Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon, Haryana, India
  • 148 Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
  • 149 Fourth View Consulting, Tallinn, Estonia
  • 150 Institute of Health Policy and Development Studies, National Institutes of Health, Manila, Philippines
  • 151 National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA
  • 152 IAPB and Vision 2020 LA, Weston, FL, USA
  • 153 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Bloomsbury, UK
  • 154 Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
  • 155 University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  • 156 University at Albany, The State University of New York, Rensselaer, NY, USA
  • 157 Genentech, Inc, South San Francisco, CA, USA
  • 158 Unidade Local de Saude de Matosinhos, Public Health Department, Porto, Portugal
  • 159 Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
  • 160 Wayne State University, Miami, FL, USA
  • 161 National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
  • 162 Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
  • 163 Eastern Health Clinical School, VIC, Australia; Turning Point, Eastern Health, Fitzroy, VIC, Australia
  • 164 Northern Region Health Administration, Public Health Department, Porto, Portugal
  • 165 Centro Nacional para la Prevención y el Control del VIH/SIDA, Mexico City, Mexico
  • 166 Department of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Work, Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia
  • 167 University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
  • 168 Queen Mary, University of London, London, UK
  • 169 University of the East Ramon Magsaysay Medical Center, Quezon City, Philippines
  • 170 Elmhurst Hospital Center, Mount Sinai Services, Elmhurst, NY, USA
  • 171 Ministry of Public Health, Kabul, Afghanistan
  • 172 University of York, York, UK
  • 173 University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
  • 174 AIDC EC, Port Elizabeth, Eastern Cape, South Africa
  • 175 EmergentCorp, Belize City, Belize
  • 176 Pereleman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA
  • 177 Janakpuri Superspecialty Hospital, New Delhi, India
  • 178 Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  • 179 Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  • 180 UNFPA, Lima, Peru
  • 181 Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton MD, USA; Centre for Population Health Research, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
  • 182 University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
  • 183 University of Salahaddin, Erbil, Iraq
  • 184 University of Papua New Guinea, Port Moresby, NCD, Papua New Guinea
  • 185 Institute for Maternal and Child Health-IRCCS "Burlo Garofolo," Trieste, Italy
  • 186 University of North Texas, Denton, TX, USA
  • 187 National Center for Child Health and Development, Setagaya, Tokyo, Japan
  • 188 Egerton University, Egerton, Rift Valley, Kenya
  • 189 Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan
  • 190 International Centre for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
  • 191 University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
  • 192 Azienda Ospedaliera papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy
  • 193 Suraj Eye Institute, Nagpur, Maharashtra, India
  • 194 School of Public Health, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA
  • 195 Faculty of Medicine, Fez, Morocco
  • 196 National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Phoenix, AZ, USA
  • 197 Norwegian Center for Addiction Research (SERAF), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
  • 198 Kenya Medical Research Institute Wellcome Trust Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
  • 199 Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
  • 200 University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
  • 201 Polytechnic of Namibia, Windhoek, Namibia
  • 202 Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Korea
  • 203 Teikyo University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
  • 204 Center for Healthy Start Initiative, Ikoyi, Lagos, Nigeria
  • 205 Lira District Local Government, Lira Municipal Council, Northern Uganda, Uganda
  • 206 Toxicology Unit, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria
  • 207 Christian Medical College Ludhiana, Ludhiana, India
  • 208 University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
  • 209 AIIMS, New Delhi, India
  • 210 Independent, Waigani, NCD, Papua New Guinea
  • 211 3B's Research Group-Biomaterials, Biodegradables and Biomimetics, University of Minho, Headquarters of the European Institute of Excellence on Tissue Engineering and Regenerative Medicine and ICVS/3B's-PT Government Associate Laboratory, Braga, Portugal
  • 212 Postgraduate Medical Institute, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
  • 213 Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia
  • 214 Centre for Applied Biostatistics, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
  • 215 University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
  • 216 College of Pharmacy, University of Illinois, Chicago, IL, USA
  • 217 Contech Intl., Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
  • 218 Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 219 Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
  • 220 University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA
  • 221 Department of Public Health, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
  • 222 Center for Disease Analysis, Louisville, CO, USA
  • 223 Private consultant, Cairns, QLD, Australia
  • 224 IRCCS Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Centro Anna Maria Astori, Bergamo, Italy
  • 225 Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
  • 226 BARC Hospital, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
  • 227 Rwanda Bio-Medical Center, Kigali, Rwanda
  • 228 MS Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 229 National HIV/AIDS & STI Surveillance and Strategic Information Unit, National Epidemiology Center, Department of Health, Manila, National Capital Region, Philippines
  • 230 Marshall University, Huntington, WV, USA
  • 231 Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Brazil
  • 232 University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
  • 233 Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
  • 234 Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  • 235 University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
  • 236 Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
  • 237 Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK
  • 238 Center for Clinical Global Health Education, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
  • 239 Reykjavik University, Reykjavik, Iceland
  • 240 University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
  • 241 Instituto Nacional de Epidemiología Dr Juan H Jara, Mar del Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • 242 Surveillance and Health Services Research Program American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA, USA
  • 243 Faculty of Health Sciences, Hatter Institute for Cardiovascular Research in Africa, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
  • 244 Dartmouth College, Lebanon, NH, USA
  • 245 Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
  • 246 Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University Tunku Abdul Rahman, Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia
  • 247 Centre Hospitalier Nord Deux-Sevres, Bressuire, France
  • 248 KEELPNO (Centre for Disease Control, Greece, dispatched to "Alexandra" General Hospital of Athens), Athens, Greece
  • 249 National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
  • 250 Department of Criminology, Law and Society (and Sociology), University of California-Irvine, Chicago, IL, USA
  • 251 University of Illinois, Champaign, IL, USA
  • 252 Ministry of Health-MINSANTE, Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon
  • 253 Memorial University, St John's, NL, Canada
  • 254 Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA; Department of Anesthesiology, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  • 255 Adaptive Knowledge Management, Victoria, BC, Canada
  • 256 The Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
  • 257 Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, USA
  • 258 University of Southern Santa Catarina, Palhoça, Santa Catarina, Brazil
  • 259 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
  • 260 Department of Population Sciences and Development, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • 261 Department of Medicine, University of Crete, Heraklion, Greece
  • 262 Department of Veterans Affairs, Washington, DC, USA
  • 263 Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital Abakaliki, Abakailiki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria
  • 264 The Kirby Institute, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  • 265 UKK Institute for Health Promotion Research, Tampere, Finland
  • 266 Neuroscience Centre, Raffles Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
  • 267 University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
  • 268 Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
  • 269 Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway; University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
  • 270 Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA
  • 271 VA Medical Center and Georgetown University Neurology Department, Washington, DC, USA
  • 272 Shandong University Affiliated Jinan Central Hospital, Jinan, China
  • 273 National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance, Chengdu, China
  • 274 Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Stockholm, Sweden
  • 275 University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  • 276 University of Marburg, Marburg, Germany
  • 277 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Division of Infectious Disease Control and Department of Health Statistics, Division of Epidemiology, Oslo, Norway
  • 278 University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA
  • 279 Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
  • 280 Ateneo School of Medicine and Public Health, Pasig City, Metro Manila, Philippines
  • 281 Nanjing University School of Medicine, Jinling Hospital, Nanjing, China
  • 282 University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
  • 283 Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Shimotsuke, Tochigi, Japan
  • 284 The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
  • 285 National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Kodira, Tokyo, Japan
  • 286 Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, USA
  • 287 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
  • 288 TCM MEDICAL TK SDN BHD, Nusajaya, Johor Bahru, Malaysia
  • 289 Mansoura Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura, Egypt
  • 290 Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
  • 291 Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
  • 292 Cancer Institute/Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
Lancet, 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):1005-70.
PMID: 25059949 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.

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