METHODS: SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison.
RESULTS: In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario).
CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
METHODS: The European Academy of Neurology (EAN) task force (TF) met nine times between November 2021 and June 2023. During the 2023 EAN annual meeting, attendees were asked to answer five questions concerning the future of GN. The document was sent for suggestions and eventually approval to the board and the presidents of the 47 national societies of the EAN.
RESULTS: The TF first identified four relevant current and future challenges related to GN: (i) definition, (ii) practice, (iii) education, and (iv) research. The TF then identified seven initiatives to further develop GN at both the academic and community level. Finally, the TF formulated 16 recommendations to promote GN in the future.
CONCLUSIONS: GN will remain essential in the coming decades to provide rapid, accessible, and comprehensive management of patients with ND that is affordable and cost-effective. There is also a need for research, education, and other initiatives aiming to facilitate improved working conditions, recognition, and prestige for those pursuing a career in GN.