METHODS: We collected data from 7954 asymptomatic subjects (age, 50-75 y) who received screening colonoscopy examinations at 14 sites in Asia. We randomly assigned 5303 subjects to the derivation cohort and the remaining 2651 to the validation cohort. We collected data from the derivation cohort on age, sex, family history of colorectal cancer, smoking, drinking, body mass index, medical conditions, and use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or aspirin. Associations between the colonoscopic findings of APN and each risk factor were examined using the Pearson χ2 test, and we assigned each participant a risk score (0-15), with scores of 0 to 3 as average risk and scores of 4 or higher as high risk. The scoring system was tested in the validation cohort. We used the Cochran-Armitage test of trend to compare the prevalence of APN among subjects in each group.
RESULTS: In the validation cohort, 79.5% of patients were classified as average risk and 20.5% were classified as high risk. The prevalence of APN in the average-risk group was 1.9% and in the high-risk group was 9.4% (adjusted relative risk, 5.08; 95% CI, 3.38-7.62; P < .001). The score included age (61-70 y, 3; ≥70 y, 4), smoking habits (current/past, 2), family history of colorectal cancer (present in a first-degree relative, 2), and the presence of neoplasia in the distal colorectum (nonadvanced adenoma 5-9 mm, 2; advanced neoplasia, 7). The c-statistic of the score was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68-0.79), and for distal findings alone was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.60-0.74). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test statistic was greater than 0.05, indicating the reliability of the validation set. The number needed to refer was 11 (95% CI, 10-13), and the number needed to screen was 15 (95% CI, 12-17).
CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a scoring system to identify persons at risk for APN. Screening participants who undergo flexible sigmoidoscopy screening with a score of 4 points or higher should undergo colonoscopy evaluation.
METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library from inception to May 1, 2019, for relevant original research articles without any language restrictions. The literature search and data extraction were done independently by two investigators. Primary outcomes were the prevalence of non-obese or lean people within the NAFLD group and the prevalence of non-obese or lean NAFLD in the general, non-obese, and lean populations; the incidence of NAFLD among non-obese and lean populations; and long-term outcomes of non-obese people with NAFLD. We also aimed to characterise the demographic, clinical, and histological characteristics of individuals with non-obese NAFLD.
FINDINGS: We identified 93 studies (n=10 576 383) from 24 countries or areas: 84 studies (n=10 530 308) were used for the prevalence analysis, five (n=9121) were used for the incidence analysis, and eight (n=36 954) were used for the outcomes analysis. Within the NAFLD population, 19·2% (95% CI 15·9-23·0) of people were lean and 40·8% (36·6-45·1) were non-obese. The prevalence of non-obese NAFLD in the general population varied from 25% or lower in some countries (eg, Malaysia and Pakistan) to higher than 50% in others (eg, Austria, Mexico, and Sweden). In the general population (comprising individuals with and without NAFLD), 12·1% (95% CI 9·3-15·6) of people had non-obese NAFLD and 5·1% (3·7-7·0) had lean NAFLD. The incidence of NAFLD in the non-obese population (without NAFLD at baseline) was 24·6 (95% CI 13·4-39·2) per 1000 person-years. Among people with non-obese or lean NALFD, 39·0% (95% CI 24·1-56·3) had non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, 29·2% (21·9-37·9) had significant fibrosis (stage ≥2), and 3·2% (1·5-5·7) had cirrhosis. Among the non-obese or lean NAFLD population, the incidence of all-cause mortality was 12·1 (95% CI 0·5-38·8) per 1000 person-years, that for liver-related mortality was 4·1 (1·9-7·1) per 1000 person-years, cardiovascular-related mortality was 4·0 (0·1-14·9) per 1000 person-years, new-onset diabetes was 12·6 (8·0-18·3) per 1000 person-years, new-onset cardiovascular disease was 18·7 (9·2-31·2) per 1000 person-years, and new-onset hypertension was 56·1 (38·5-77·0) per 1000 person-years. Most analyses were characterised by high heterogeneity.
INTERPRETATION: Overall, around 40% of the global NAFLD population was classified as non-obese and almost a fifth was lean. Both non-obese and lean groups had substantial long-term liver and non-liver comorbidities. These findings suggest that obesity should not be the sole criterion for NAFLD screening. Moreover, clinical trials of treatments for NAFLD should include participants across all body-mass index ranges.
FUNDING: None.
METHODS: In a double-blind, phase III trial, 453 patients with advanced HCC and progression during or after treatment with or intolerance to sorafenib or oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to receive pembrolizumab (200 mg) or placebo once every 3 weeks for ≤ 35 cycles plus best supportive care. The primary end point was overall survival (one-sided significance threshold, P = .0193 [final analysis]). Secondary end points included progression-free survival (PFS) and objective response rate (ORR; one-sided significance threshold, P = .0134 and .0091, respectively [second interim analysis]; RECIST version 1.1, by blinded independent central review).
RESULTS: Median overall survival was longer in the pembrolizumab group than in the placebo group (14.6 v 13.0 months; hazard ratio for death, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.99; P = .0180). Median PFS was also longer in the pembrolizumab group than in the placebo group (2.6 v 2.3 months; hazard ratio for progression or death, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.92; P = .0032). ORR was greater in the pembrolizumab group (12.7% [95% CI, 9.1 to 17.0]) than in the placebo group (1.3% [95% CI, 0.2 to 4.6]; P < .0001). Treatment-related adverse events occurred in 66.9% of patients (grade 3, 12.0%; grade 4, 1.3%; grade 5, 1.0%) in the pembrolizumab group and 49.7% of patients (grade 3, 5.9%; grade 4, 0%; grade 5, 0%) in the placebo group.
CONCLUSION: In patients from Asia with previously treated advanced HCC, pembrolizumab significantly prolonged overall survival and PFS, and ORR was greater versus placebo.
METHODS: A prospective-retrospective cohort of 985 patients was identified from the APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database and the Chinese Study Group. Complications of ACLF (ascites, infection, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding) as well as cirrhosis and the current main prognostic models were measured for their predictive ability for 28- or 90-day mortality.
RESULTS: A total of 709 patients with HBV-ACLF as defined by the AARC criteria were enrolled. Among these HBV-ACLF patients, the cirrhotic group showed significantly higher mortality and complications than the non-cirrhotic group. A total of 36.1% and 40.1% of patients met the European Association for the Study of Liver (EASL)-Chronic Liver Failure consortium (CLIF-C) criteria in the non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic groups, respectively; these patients had significantly higher rates of mortality and complications than those who did not satisfy the CLIF-C criteria. Furthermore, among patients who did not meet the CLIF-C criteria, the cirrhotic group exhibited higher mortality and complication rates than the non-cirrhotic group, without significant differences in organ failure. The Tongji prognostic predictor model score (TPPMs), which set the number of complications as one of the determinants, showed comparable or superior ability to the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B-ACLF score (COSSH-ACLFs), APASL-ACLF Research Consortium score (AARC-ACLFs), CLIF-C organ failure score (CLIF-C OFs), CLIF-C-ACLF score (CLIF-C-ACLFs), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (MELDs) and MELD-sodium score (MELD-Nas) in HBV-ACLF patients, especially in cirrhotic HBV--ACLF patients. Patients with two (OR 4.70, 1.88) or three (OR 8.27, 2.65) complications had a significantly higher risk of 28- or 90-day mortality, respectively.
CONCLUSION: The presence of complications is a major risk factor for mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. TPPM possesses high predictive ability in HBV-ACLF patients, especially in cirrhotic HBV-ACLF patients.
METHODS: A multi-center, prospective colonoscopy study involving 16 Asia-Pacific regions was performed from 2008 to 2015. Consecutive self-referred CRC screening participants aged 40-70 years were recruited, and each subject received one direct optical colonoscopy. The prevalence of CRC, ACN, and colorectal adenoma was compared among subjects with different FDRs affected using Pearson's χ2 tests. Binary logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the risk of these lesions, controlling for recognized risk factors including age, gender, smoking habits, alcohol drinking, body mass index, and the presence of diabetes mellitus.
RESULTS: Among 11,797 asymptomatic subjects, the prevalence of CRC was 0.6% (none: 0.6%; siblings: 1.1%; mother: 0.5%; father: 1.2%; ≥2 members: 3.1%, P<0.001), that of ACN was 6.5% (none: 6.1%; siblings: 8.3%; mother: 7.7%; father: 8.7%; ≥2 members: 9.3%, P<0.001), and that of colorectal adenoma was 29.3% (none: 28.6%; siblings: 33.5%; mother: 31.8%; father: 31.1%; ≥2 members: 38.1%, P<0.001). In multivariate regression analyses, subjects with at least one FDR affected were significantly more likely to have CRC (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=2.02-7.89), ACN (AOR=1.55-2.06), and colorectal adenoma (AOR=1.31-1.92) than those without a family history. The risk of CRC (AOR=0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.34-2.35, P=0.830), ACN (AOR=1.07, 95% CI 0.75-1.52, P=0.714), and colorectal adenoma (AOR=0.96, 95% CI 0.78-1.19, P=0.718) in subjects with either parent affected was similar to that of subjects with their siblings affected.
CONCLUSIONS: The risk of colorectal neoplasia was similar among subjects with different FDRs affected. These findings do not support the need to discriminate proband identity in screening participants with affected FDRs when their risks of colorectal neoplasia were estimated.
Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11482-021-10024-w.
METHODS: In this study, we built a new model (Asian Risk Calculator) for estimating the likelihood of carrying a pathogenic variant in BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene, using germline BRCA genetic testing results in a cross-sectional population-based study of 8,162 Asian patients with breast cancer. We compared the model performance to existing mutation prediction models. The models were evaluated for discrimination and calibration.
RESULTS: Asian Risk Calculator included age of diagnosis, ethnicity, bilateral breast cancer, tumor biomarkers, and family history of breast cancer or ovarian cancer as predictors. The inclusion of tumor grade improved significantly the model performance. The full model was calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow P value = .614) and discriminated well between BRCA and non-BRCA pathogenic variant carriers (area under receiver operating curve, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.84). Addition of grade to the existing clinical genetic testing criteria targeting patients with breast cancer age younger than 45 years reduced the proportion of patients referred for genetic counseling and testing from 37% to 33% (P value = .003), thereby improving the overall efficacy.
CONCLUSION: Population-specific customization of mutation prediction models and clinical genetic testing criteria improved the accuracy of BRCA mutation prediction in Asian patients.