METHODS: An agent-based model (ABM) is a relatively new approach that provides a framework for analyzing the heterogeneity of the interactions, along with biological and environmental factors in such complex systems. The objective of this research is to design and develop an ABM that uses Geospatial Information System (GIS) capabilities, biological behaviors of vectors and reservoir hosts, and an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model to explore the spread of ZCL. Various scenarios were implemented to analyze the future ZCL spreads in different parts of Maraveh Tappeh County, in the northeast region of Golestan Province in northeastern Iran, with alternative socio-ecological conditions.
RESULTS: The results confirmed that the spread of the disease arises principally in the desert, low altitude areas, and riverside population centers. The outcomes also showed that the restricting movement of humans reduces the severity of the transmission. Moreover, the spread of ZCL has a particular temporal pattern, since the most prevalent cases occurred in the fall. The evaluation test also showed the similarity between the results and the reported spatiotemporal trends.
CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the capability and efficiency of ABM to model and predict the spread of ZCL. The results of the presented approach can be considered as a guide for public health management and controlling the vector population .
METHODS: A total of 482 serum samples collected during 2019 from Jazan region were tested with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to detect and classify DENV; positive samples underwent sequencing and bioinformatics analyses.
RESULTS: Out of 294 positive samples, type-specific RT-PCR identified 58.8% as DENV-2 but could not identify 41.2%. Based on sequencing and bioinformatics analyses, the samples tested PCR positive in the first round but PCR negative in the second round were found to be imported genetic variant of DENV-2. The identified DENV-2 imported variant showed similarities to DENV-2 sequences reported in Malaysia, Singapore, Korea and China. The results revealed the imported genetic variant of DENV-2 was circulating in Jazan region that was highly prevalent and it was likely a major factor in this outbreak.
CONCLUSIONS: The emergence of imported DENV variants is a serious challenge for the dengue fever surveillance and control programmes in endemic areas. Therefore, further investigations and continuous surveillance of existing and new viral strains in the region are warranted.