Displaying publications 1 - 20 of 80 in total

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  1. Ahmad* M, Alsarayreh D, Alsarayreh A, Qaralleh I
    Sains Malaysiana, 2017;46:2007-2017.
    In this paper, the differential transformation method (DTM) is employed to find the semi-analytical solutions of SIS and SI
    epidemic models for constant population. Firstly, the theoretical background of DTM is studied and followed by constructing
    the solutions of SIS and SI epidemic models. Furthermore, the convergence analysis of DTM is proven by proposing two
    theorems. Finally, numerical computations are made and compared with the exact solutions. From the numerical results,
    the solutions produced by DTM approach the exact solutions which agreed with the proposed theorems. It can be seen that
    the DTM is an alternative technique to be considered in solving many practical problems involving differential equations.
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics
  2. Ayinla AY, Othman WAM, Rabiu M
    Acta Biotheor, 2021 Sep;69(3):225-255.
    PMID: 33877474 DOI: 10.1007/s10441-020-09406-8
    Tuberculosis has continued to retain its title as "the captain among these men of death". This is evident as it is the leading cause of death globally from a single infectious agent. TB as it is fondly called has become a major threat to the achievement of the sustainable development goals (SDG) and hence require inputs from different research disciplines. This work presents a mathematical model of tuberculosis. A compartmental model of seven classes was used in the model formulation comprising of the susceptible S, vaccinated V, exposed E, undiagnosed infectious I1, diagnosed infectious I2, treated T and recovered R. The stability analysis of the model was established as well as the condition for the model to undergo backward bifurcation. With the existence of backward bifurcation, keeping the basic reproduction number less than unity [Formula: see text] is no more sufficient to keep TB out of the community. Hence, it is shown by the analysis that vaccination program, diagnosis and treatment helps to control the TB dynamics. In furtherance to that, it is shown that preference should be given to diagnosis over treatment as diagnosis precedes treatment. It is as well shown that at lower vaccination rate (0-20%), TB would still be endemic in the population. As such, high vaccination rate is required to send TB out of the community.
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics*
  3. Rendana M, Idris WMR, Abdul Rahim S
    J Infect Public Health, 2021 Oct;14(10):1340-1348.
    PMID: 34301503 DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2021.07.010
    Currently, many countries all over the world are facing the second wave of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases, epidemic spread rate, spatial pattern during the first to the second waves in the South Sumatra Province of Indonesia. This study used the geographical information system (GIS) software to map the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases and epidemic spread rate. The spatial autocorrelation of the COVID-19 cases was carried out using Moran's I, while the Pearson correlation was used to examining the relationship between meteorological factors and the epidemic spread rate. Most infected areas and the direction of virus spread were predicted using wind rose analysis. The results revealed that the epidemic rapidly spread from August 1 to December 1, 2020. The highest epidemic spread rate was observed in the Palembang district and in its peripheral areas (dense urban areas), while the lowest spread rate was found in the eastern and southern parts of South Sumatra Province (remote areas). The spatial correlation characteristic of the epidemic distribution exhibited a negative correlation and random distribution. Air temperature, wind speed, and precipitation have contributed to a significant impact on the high epidemic spread rate in the second wave. In summary, this study offers new insight for arranging control and prevention strategies against the potential of second wave strike.
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics*
  4. Abuasad S, Yildirim A, Hashim I, Abdul Karim SA, Gómez-Aguilar JF
    PMID: 30889889 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16060973
    In this paper, we applied a fractional multi-step differential transformed method, which is a generalization of the multi-step differential transformed method, to find approximate solutions to one of the most important epidemiology and mathematical ecology, fractional stochastic SIS epidemic model with imperfect vaccination, subject to appropriate initial conditions. The fractional derivatives are described in the Caputo sense. Numerical results coupled with graphical representations indicate that the proposed method is robust and precise which can give new interpretations for various types of dynamical systems.
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics
  5. Kow CS, Hasan SS
    Clin Med (Lond), 2021 01;21(1):e117.
    PMID: 33479096 DOI: 10.7861/clinmed.Let.21.1.3
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics*
  6. HALE JH, PILLAI K
    Med J Malaya, 1956 Dec;11(2):116-8.
    PMID: 13417934
    Matched MeSH terms: Pleurodynia, Epidemic*; Epidemics*
  7. Aziz MHN, Safaruddin ADA, Hamzah NA, Supadi SS, Yuhao Z, Aziz MA
    Acta Biotheor, 2022 Nov 17;71(1):2.
    PMID: 36394646 DOI: 10.1007/s10441-022-09453-3
    A modified version of the SEIR model with the effects of vaccination and inter-state movement is proposed to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia. A mathematical analysis of the proposed model was performed to derive the basic reproduction number. To enhance the model's forecasting capabilities, the model parameters were estimated using the Nelder-Mead simplex method by fitting the model outputs to the observed data. Our results showed a good fit between the model outputs and available data, where the model was then able to perform short-term predictions. In line with the rapid vaccination program, our model predicted that the COVID-19 cases in the country would decrease by the end of August. Furthermore, our findings indicated that relaxing travel restrictions from a highly vaccinated region to a low vaccinated region would result in an epidemic outbreak.
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics*
  8. Dass SC, Kwok WM, Gibson GJ, Gill BS, Sundram BM, Singh S
    PLoS One, 2021;16(5):e0252136.
    PMID: 34043676 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252136
    The second wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia is largely attributed to a four-day mass gathering held in Sri Petaling from February 27, 2020, which contributed to an exponential rise of COVID-19 cases in the country. Starting from March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government introduced four consecutive phases of a Movement Control Order (MCO) to stem the spread of COVID-19. The MCO was implemented through various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The reported number of cases reached its peak by the first week of April and then started to reduce, hence proving the effectiveness of the MCO. To gain a quantitative understanding of the effect of MCO on the dynamics of COVID-19, this paper develops a class of mathematical models to capture the disease spread before and after MCO implementation in Malaysia. A heterogeneous variant of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model is developed with additional compartments for asymptomatic transmission. Further, a change-point is incorporated to model disease dynamics before and after intervention which is inferred based on data. Related statistical analyses for inference are developed in a Bayesian framework and are able to provide quantitative assessments of (1) the impact of the Sri Petaling gathering, and (2) the extent of decreasing transmission during the MCO period. The analysis here also quantitatively demonstrates how quickly transmission rates fall under effective NPI implementation within a short time period. The models and methodology used provided important insights into the nature of local transmissions to decision makers in the Ministry of Health, Malaysia.
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics*
  9. Yang CH, Li XY, Lv JJ, Hou MJ, Zhang RH, Guo H, et al.
    JMIR Public Health Surveill, 2024 Mar 14;10:e55327.
    PMID: 38483459 DOI: 10.2196/55327
    BACKGROUND: Asthma has become one of the most common chronic conditions worldwide, especially among children. Recent findings show that the prevalence of childhood asthma has increased by 12.6% over the past 30 years, with >262 million people currently affected globally. The reasons for the growing asthma epidemic remain complex and multifactorial.

    OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide an up-to-date analysis of the changing global and regional asthma prevalence, mortality, disability, and risk factors among children aged <20 years by leveraging the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Findings from this study can help inform priority areas for intervention to alleviate the rising burden of childhood asthma globally.

    METHODS: The study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, concentrating on children aged 0 to 14 years with asthma. We conducted an in-depth analysis of asthma, including its age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), across diverse demographics, such as region, age, sex, and sociodemographic index, spanning 1990 to 2019. We also projected the future burden of the disease.

    RESULTS: Overall, in the Western Pacific Region, the age-standardized prevalence rate of asthma among children increased slightly, from 3898.4 cases per 100,000 people in 1990 to 3924 per 100,000 in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate of asthma also increased slightly, from 979.2 to 994.9 per 100,000. In contrast, the age-standardized death rate of asthma decreased from 0.9 to 0.4 per 100,000 and the age-standardized DALY rate decreased from 234.9 to 189.7 per 100,000. At the country level, Japan experienced a considerable decrease in the age-standardized prevalence rate of asthma among children, from 6669.1 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5071.5 per 100,000 in 2019. Regarding DALYs, Japan exhibited a notable reduction, from 300.6 to 207.6 per 100,000. Malaysia also experienced a DALY rate reduction, from 188.4 to 163.3 per 100,000 between 1990 and 2019. We project that the burden of disease in countries other than Japan and the Philippines will remain relatively stable up to 2045.

    CONCLUSIONS: The study indicates an increase in the prevalence and incidence of pediatric asthma, coupled with a decrease in mortality and DALYs in the Western Pacific Region between 1990 and 2019. These intricate phenomena appear to result from a combination of lifestyle shifts, environmental influences, and barriers to health care access. The findings highlight that nations such as Japan have achieved notable success in managing asthma. Overall, the study identified areas of improvement in view of persistent disease burden, underscoring the need for comprehensive collaborative efforts to mitigate the impact of pediatric asthma throughout the region.

    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics*
  10. Ng CFS, Seposo XT, Moi ML, Tajudin MABA, Madaniyazi L, Sahani M
    Int J Infect Dis, 2020 Dec;101:409-411.
    PMID: 33075527 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.027
    The first wave of COVID-19 epidemic began in late January in Malaysia and ended with a very small final size. The second wave of infections broke out in late February and grew rapidly in the first 3 weeks. Authorities in the country responded quickly with a series of control strategies collectively known as the Movement Control Order (MCO) with different levels of intensity matching the progression of the epidemic. We examined the characteristics of the second wave and discussed the key control strategies implemented in the country. In the second wave, the epidemic doubled in size every 3.8 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.3, 4.5) in the first month and decayed slowly after that with a halving time of approximately 3 weeks. The time-varying reproduction number Rt peaked at 3.1 (95% credible interval: 2.7, 3.5) in the 3rd week, declined sharply thereafter and stayed below 1 in the last 3 weeks of April, indicating low transmissibility approximately 3 weeks after the MCO. Experience of the country suggests that adaptive triggering of distancing policies combined with a population-wide movement control measure can be effective in suppressing transmission and preventing a rebound.
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics/prevention & control; Epidemics/statistics & numerical data
  11. Lam TT, Zhu H, Chong YL, Holmes EC, Guan Y
    J Virol, 2015 Oct;89(19):10130-2.
    PMID: 26202242 DOI: 10.1128/JVI.01226-15
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics*
  12. Tan TW, Tan HL, Chang MN, Lin WS, Chang CM
    PMID: 33810438 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18073456
    (1) Background: The implementation of effective control measures in a timely fashion is crucial to control the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we aimed to analyze the control measures implemented during the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as evaluating the responses and outcomes at different phases for epidemic control in Taiwan. (2) Methods: This case study reviewed responses to COVID-19 and the effectiveness of a range of control measures implemented for epidemic control in Taiwan and assessed all laboratory-confirmed cases between 11 January until 20 December 2020, inclusive of these dates. The confirmation of COVID-19 infection was defined as the positive result of a reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction test taken from a nasopharyngeal swab. Test results were reported by the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. The incidence rate, mortality rate, and testing rate were compiled, and the risk ratio was provided to gain insights into the effectiveness of prevention measures. (3) Results and Discussion: This study presents retrospective data on the COVID-19 incidence rate in Taiwan, combined with the vital preventive control measures, in a timeline of the early stage of the epidemic that occurred in Taiwan. The implementation of multiple strategy control measures and the assistance of technologies to control the COVID-19 epidemic in Taiwan led to a relatively slower trend in the outbreak compared to the neighboring countries. In Taiwan, 766 confirmed patients were included, comprised of 88.1% imported cases and 7.2% local transmission cases, within the studied period. The incidence rate of COVID-19 in Taiwan during the studied period was 32 per million people, with a mortality rate of 0.3 per million people. Our analysis showed a significantly raised incidence risk ratio in the countries of interest in comparison to Taiwan during the study period; in the range of 1.9 to 947.5. The outbreak was brought under control through epidemic policies and hospital strategies implemented by the Taiwan Government. (4) Conclusion: Taiwan's preventive strategies resulted in a drastically lower risk for Taiwan nationals of contracting COVID-19 when new pharmaceutical drug or vaccines were not yet available. The preventive strategies employed by Taiwan could serve as a guide and reference for future epidemic control strategies.
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics*
  13. Binns C, Low WY
    Asia Pac J Public Health, 2021 05;33(4):333-334.
    PMID: 33938291 DOI: 10.1177/10105395211012844
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics*
  14. Pocock NS, Mahmood SS, Zimmerman C, Orcutt M
    BMJ, 2017 11 15;359:j5210.
    PMID: 29141900 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.j5210
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics/prevention & control*
  15. Gopinath SCB, Ismail ZH, Sekiguchi K
    Biotechnol Appl Biochem, 2022 Dec;69(6):2507-2516.
    PMID: 34894363 DOI: 10.1002/bab.2300
    The current world condition is dire due to epidemics and pandemics as a result of novel viruses, such as influenza and the coronavirus, causing acute respiratory syndrome. To overcome these critical situations, the current research seeks to generate a common surveillance system with the assistance of a controlled Internet of Things operated under a Gaussian noise channel. To create the model system, a study with an analysis of H1N1 influenza virus determination on an interdigitated electrode (IDE) sensor was validated by current-volt measurements. The preliminary data were generated using hemagglutinin as the target against gold-conjugated aptamer/antibody as the probe, with the transmission pattern showing consistency with the Gaussian noise channel algorithm. A good fit with the algorithmic values was found, displaying a similar pattern to that output from the IDE, indicating reliability. This study can be a model for the surveillance of varied pathogens, including the emergence and reemergence of novel strains.
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics*
  16. Khan A, Zarin R, Hussain G, Ahmad NA, Mohd MH, Yusuf A
    Results Phys, 2021 Jan;20:103703.
    PMID: 33520623 DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103703
    The dynamic of covid-19 epidemic model with a convex incidence rate is studied in this article. First, we formulate the model without control and study all the basic properties and results including local and global stability. We show the global stability of disease free equilibrium using the method of Lyapunov function theory while for disease endemic, we use the method of geometrical approach. Furthermore, we develop a model with suitable optimal control strategies. Our aim is to minimize the infection in the host population. In order to do this, we use two control variables. Moreover, sensitivity analysis complemented by simulations are performed to determine how changes in parameters affect the dynamical behavior of the system. Taking into account the central manifold theory the bifurcation analysis is also incorporated. The numerical simulations are performed in order to show the feasibility of the control strategy and effectiveness of the theoretical results.
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics
  17. Kamarulzaman Bin Ibrahim, Abdul Aziz Jermain
    Dengue is one of the main factors of mortality of inhabitants in the region of South East Asia. Malaysia is one of the countries which is facing a high incidence of dengue, particularly in the 70's and early 80's. The Ministry of Health has taken various measures in order to reduce the dengue epidemic. These include educating people about dengue and conducting research such as investigation of factors that influence the epidemic of dengue. In this study, a sequential Bayesian approach is applied to data of the proportion of death due to dengue over the period from 1982 to 1992. In the sequential Bayesian approach, the data for the year 1982 becomes the prior information for the 1983 data and so on. The data for the different periods are combined in a chronological manner until the final posterior distribution of the proportion of death due to dengue is obtained. It is found that the overall proportion is 0.59% and its standard deviation is 0.00002%.
    Denggi adalah satu daripada faktor utama kematian bagi penduduk di rantau Asia Tenggara. Malaysia pula merupakan satu daripada negara yang sedang mengalami kadar insiden denggi yang tinggi, khususnya dalam tahun 70-an dan pada awal 80-an. Kementerian Kesihatan telah mengambil pelbagai langkah untuk mengurangkan wabak denggi. Ini termasuk memberikan pendidikan tentang denggi dan membuat kajian tentang faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya. Dalam kajian ini kaedah Bayesan jujukan digunakan terhadap data perkadaran yang mati akibat denggi dalam tempoh 1982 hingga 1992. Dalam kaedah ini, data tahun 1982 digunakan sebagai maklumat prior untuk data tahun 1983 dan seterusnya. Data dari tahun yang berlainan digabungkan secara kronologi sehingga diperoleh taburan posterior yang terakhir bagi perkadaran yang mati akibat denggi. Didapati bahawa perkadaran keseluruhan ialah 0.59% dan sisihan piawainya 0.00002%.
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics
  18. Azami NAM, Moi ML, Salleh SA, Neoh HM, Kamaruddin MA, Jalal NA, et al.
    Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg, 2020 11 06;114(11):798-811.
    PMID: 32735681 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/traa056
    BACKGROUND: A periodic serosurvey of dengue seroprevalence is vital to determine the prevalence of dengue in countries where this disease is endemic. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of dengue immunoglobulin G (IgG) seropositivity among healthy Malaysian adults living in urban and rural areas.

    METHODS: A total of 2598 serum samples (1417 urban samples, 1181 rural samples) were randomly collected from adults ages 35-74 y. The presence of the dengue IgG antibody and neutralising antibodies to dengue virus (DENV) 1-4 was determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and the plaque reduction neutralisation test assay, respectively.

    RESULTS: The prevalence of dengue IgG seropositivity was 85.39% in urban areas and 83.48% in rural areas. The seropositivity increased with every 10-y increase in age. Ethnicity was associated with dengue seropositivity in urban areas but not in rural areas. The factors associated with dengue seropositivity were sex and working outdoors. In dengue IgG-positive serum samples, 98.39% of the samples had neutralising antibodies against DENV3, but only 70.97% of them had neutralising antibodies against DENV4.

    CONCLUSION: The high seroprevalence of dengue found in urban and rural areas suggests that both urban and rural communities are vital for establishing and sustaining DENV transmission in Malaysia.

    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics*
  19. SMITH CE
    Nature, 1956 Sep 15;178(4533):581-2.
    PMID: 13369466
    Matched MeSH terms: Epidemics*
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