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Fulltext Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Burstein R, Henry NJ, Collison ML, Marczak LB, Sligar A, Watson S, et al.

Nature, 2019 Oct;574(7778):353-358.
PMID: 31619795 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1545-0

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Matched MeSH terms: Infant Mortality/trends*; Child Mortality/trends*
Changes of perinatal statistics in a semiurban setup between two time periods in Malaysia

al-Mohdzar SA, Haque E, Abdullah WA

Asia Oceania J Obstet Gynaecol, 1993 Dec;19(4):401-5.
PMID: 8135673

Hospital University Sains Malaysia (HUSM) functions as the state referral centre and the only hospital for the state of Kelantan that can offer neonatal intensive care service. The deliveries in HUSM with grand multiparity, late booking and problems of late referrals resembles a hospital serving a semiurban rather than an urban community. A comparison between the year 1989 and 1991 showed marked improvement of perinatal mortality rate from 41.32 to 24.88, which is significantly better than the improvement achieved from 1987 to 1989 (46.0 to 41.32). This was possible due to a marked fall in the early neonatal mortality rate from 10.02 in 1989 to 5.45 in 1991 and fall in the stillbirth rate from 31.61 to 19.53.

Matched MeSH terms: Infant Mortality/trends*
Regional inequalities of child mortality in peninsular Malaysia with special reference to the differentials between Perlis and Kuala Terengganu

Brehm U

Soc Sci Med, 1993 May;36(10):1331-4.
PMID: 8511619

In Peninsular Malaysia child mortality rates (5q0) vary from 13 to 63 per thousand at district level. The spatial pattern is closely associated with the regional distribution of socio-economic factors. But due to multicollinearity it is difficult to isolate the influence of socio-economic variables from other variables by employing aggregated data. However, individual data collected in a case-control-study that was conducted in Perlis and Kuala Terengganu confirm the important role of socio-economic factors. So it should be possible to achieve a further reduction of child mortality by raising the income and educational level of the under-privileged groups. Apart from that, as the case of Perlis shows, the provision of family planning and preventive medical services may also contribute to lower child mortality independent from socio-economic changes. But, as the comparison with Kuala Terengganu shows, the utilization of family planning and preventive medical services is not only influenced by the accessibility to, but also by the socio-culturally determined acceptability of such services.

Matched MeSH terms: Infant Mortality/trends*; Mortality/trends*
Fulltext Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Wang H, Liddell CA, Coates MM, Mooney MD, Levitz CE, Schumacher AE, et al.

Lancet, 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):957-79.
PMID: 24797572 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9

BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.
METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.
FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.
INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Matched MeSH terms: Infant Mortality/trends*; Child Mortality/trends*
Problems and potential of researching epidemiological transition: examples from Southeast Asia

Phillips DR

Soc Sci Med, 1991;33(4):395-404.
PMID: 1948152

The concept of epidemiological transition is now quite widely recognized, if not so widely accepted. The transition appears to progress at varying speeds and to different extents spatially; it seems that there can be considerable international, regional and local variations in its progress. The paper examines this contention in the case of a number of countries in Southeast Asia, principally Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand. Drawing on evidence from this region, the paper highlights the importance when researching epidemiological transition of the time period under consideration; socio-cultural variations; the nature and quality of data, and spatial scale. It makes some suggestions as to the potential of the concept of epidemiological transition in health care planning and development studies.

Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends*
Economic stability and health status: evidence from East Asia before and after the 1990s economic crisis

Hopkins S

Health Policy, 2006 Feb;75(3):347-57.
PMID: 15896870

The East Asian economies of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand suffered declines in their economic growth rates in 1997. The Indonesian and Thai government followed the World Bank prescription for adjustment, which included a cut-back in government spending at a time when there were significant job losses. Malaysia chose its own path to adjustment. Evidence presented in this paper shows that although the declines were short-lived that there was an impact on the health status measured by mortality rates for the populations of Indonesia and Thailand. There was little apparent impact on the health status of Malaysians. The lessons for other developing economies include the importance of social safety nets and the maintenance of government expenditure in minimising the impact of economic shocks on health.

Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends
Fulltext Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

GBD 2015 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators

Lancet, 2016 Oct 08;388(10053):1459-1544.
PMID: 27733281 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1

BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.
METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).
FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.
INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Malaysian collaborators: Southern University College, Skudai, Malaysia (Y J Kim PhD); School of Medical Sciences, University of Science Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia (K I Musa MD); Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (R Sahathevan PhD); Department of Community Medicine, International Medical University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (C T Sreeramareddy MD); WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia (A L Thorne-Lyman ScD)

Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends
Inequities in adolescent and young adult deaths

Ameratunga S, George A

Lancet, 2021 10 30;398(10311):1545-1547.
PMID: 34755617 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01603-2
Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends*
Fulltext Morbidity and mortality from road injuries: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

James SL, Lucchesi LR, Bisignano C, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, et al.

Inj Prev, 2020 Oct;26(Supp 1):i46-i56.
PMID: 31915274 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043302

BACKGROUND: The global burden of road injuries is known to follow complex geographical, temporal and demographic patterns. While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years.
METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study to report incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years for all locations in the GBD 2017 hierarchy from 1990 to 2017 for road injuries. Second, we measured mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we assessed the distribution of the natures of injury (eg, traumatic brain injury) that result from each road injury.
RESULTS: Globally, 1 243 068 (95% uncertainty interval 1 191 889 to 1 276 940) people died from road injuries in 2017 out of 54 192 330 (47 381 583 to 61 645 891) new cases of road injuries. Age-standardised incidence rates of road injuries increased between 1990 and 2017, while mortality rates decreased. Regionally, age-standardised mortality rates decreased in all but two regions, South Asia and Southern Latin America, where rates did not change significantly. Nine of 21 GBD regions experienced significant increases in age-standardised incidence rates, while 10 experienced significant decreases and two experienced no significant change.
CONCLUSIONS: While road injury mortality has improved in recent decades, there are worsening rates of incidence and significant geographical heterogeneity. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented.

Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends
Reducing maternal mortality: can we derive policy guidance from developing country experiences?

Liljestrand J, Pathmanathan I

J Public Health Policy, 2004;25(3-4):299-314.
PMID: 15683067 DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jphp.3190030

Developing countries are floundering in their efforts to meet the Millennium Development Goal of reducing maternal mortality by 75% by 2015. Two issues are being debated. Is it doable within this time frame? And is it affordable? Malaysia and Sri Lanka have in the past 50 years repeatedly halved their maternal mortality ratio (MMR) every 7-10 years to reduce MMR from over 500 to below 50. Experience from four other developing countries--Bolivia, Yunan in China, Egypt, and Jamaica-confirms that each was able to halve MMR in less than 10 years beginning from levels of 200-300. Malaysia and Sri Lanka, invested modestly (but wisely)--less than 0.4% of GDP--on maternal health throughout the period of decline, although the large majority of women depended on publicly funded maternal health care. Analysis of their experience suggests that provision of access to and removal of barriers for the use of skilled birth attendance has been the key. This included professionalization of midwifery and phasing out of traditional birth attendants; monitoring births and maternal deaths and use of such information for high profile advocacy on the importance of reducing maternal death; and addressing critical gaps in the health system; and reducing disparities between different groups through special attention to the poor and disadvantaged populations.

Matched MeSH terms: Infant Mortality/trends; Maternal Mortality/trends*
The use of herbal medicines during pregnancy and perinatal mortality in Tumpat District, Kelantan, Malaysia

Ab Rahman A, Ahmad Z, Naing L, Sulaiman SA, Hamid AM, Daud WN

Southeast Asian J. Trop. Med. Public Health, 2007 Nov;38(6):1150-7.
PMID: 18613559

The objective of this case-control study was to determine the association between herbal medicine use during pregnancy and perinatal mortality in Tumpat District, Kelantan, Malaysia. Cases were mothers who gave birth from June 2002 to June 2005 with a history of perinatal mortality, while controls were those without a history of perinatal infant mortality. A total of 316 mothers (106 cases and 210 controls) were interviewed. The use of unidentified herbs prepared by traditional midwives and other types of herbal medicines during the first trimester of pregnancy were positively associated with perinatal mortality (OR = 5.24, 95% CI = 1.13; 24.23 and OR = 8.90, 95%, CI = 1.35; 58.53, respectively). The use of unidentified "Orang Asli" herbs and coconut oil during the third trimester of pregnancy were negatively associated with perinatal mortality in Tumpat (OR = 0.10, 95% CI = 0.02; 0.59 and OR = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.25; 0.92, respectively). These findings suggest the use of unidentified "Orang Asli" herbs and coconut oil in late pregnancy are protective against perinatal mortality, while the use of unidentified herbs prepared by traditional midwives and other types of herbal medicines in early pregnancy has an increased risk of perinatal infant mortality. Pharmacological studies to confirm and identify the compounds in these herbs and their effects on the fetus should be conducted in the future.

Matched MeSH terms: Perinatal Mortality/trends*
Paediatric intensive care in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: a developing subspecialty

Goh AY, Lum LC, Chan PW

J Trop Pediatr, 1999 Dec;45(6):362-4.
PMID: 10667007

Paediatric intensive care in Malaysia is a developing subspecialty with an increasing number of specialists with a paediatric background being involved in the care of critically ill children. A part prospective and part retrospective review of 118 consecutive non-neonatal ventilated patients in University Hospital, Kuala Lumpur was carried out from 1 June 1995 to 31 December 1996 to study the clinical epidemiology and outcome in our paediatric intensive case unit (PICU). The mean age of the patients was 33.9 +/- 6.0 months (median 16 months). The main mode of admission was emergency (96.6 per cent) with an overall mortality rate of 42 per cent (50/118). The mean paediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) score was 20 +/- 0.98 SEM, with 53 per cent of patients having a score of over 30 per cent. Multiorgan dysfunction (MODS) was identified in 71 per cent of patients. Admission efficiency (mortality risk > 1 per cent) was 97 per cent. Standardized mortality rate using PRISM was an acceptable 1.06. The main diagnostic categories were respiratory (32 per cent), neurology (22 per cent), haematology-oncology (18 per cent); the aetiology of dysfunction was mainly infective. Non-survivors were older (29.5 vs. 13.8 months, p < 0.0001), had more severe illness (mean PRISM score 30 vs. 14, p < 0.0001), were more likely to develop MODS (96 vs. 53 per cent, p < 0.0001) and required more intervention and monitoring. Paediatric intensive care in Malaysia differs widely from that in developed countries in patient characteristics, severity of illness, and care modalities provided.

Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends*
Forest fires, air pollution, and mortality in southeast Asia

Sastry N

Demography, 2002 Feb;39(1):1-23.
PMID: 11852832

I assess the population health effects in Malaysia of air pollution from a widespread series of fires that occurred in Indonesia between April and November of 1997. I describe how the fires occurred and why the associated air pollution was so widespread and long lasting. The main objective is to uncover any mortality effects and to assess how large and important they were. I also investigate whether the mortality effects were persistent or whether they represented a short-term, mortality-harvesting effect. The results show that the smoke haze from the fires had a deleterious effect on the health of the population in Malaysia.

Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends*
Fulltext Maternal deaths due to liver disease in Malaysia

Ravindran J, Jayadev R, Lachmanan SR, Merican I

Med J Malaysia, 2000 Jun;55(2):209-19.
PMID: 19839149

Liver disease is an important and serious condition in pregnancy. The Confidential Enquiries Into Maternal Deaths in Malaysia showed that there were 23 maternal deaths attributed to liver disease between 1991-1994. Over the same period, there were 1066 reported maternal deaths with 929 of them being due to direct and indirect causes. Thus 2.15% of such deaths were due to liver disease in Malaysia. The three main causes of maternal deaths due to liver disease in pregnancy were hepatitis (6 cases), acute fatty liver in pregnancy (6 cases) and septicaemia (4 cases). Liver disease is common at a mean of thirty weeks of gestation with a preponderance to women of low parity. Only two patients in this series had no antenatal care. The majority of cases (45.8%) presented between 28-37 weeks of gestation. All cases delivered by spontaneous vaginal delivery. Remediable factors that were identified included failure to appreciate the severity of disease. Case summaries of all the cases of maternal deaths due to liver disease are discussed and a guideline to management of liver disease in pregnancy presented.

Matched MeSH terms: Maternal Mortality/trends*
Environmental problems of the tropical city: a brief overview

Badri MA

Southeast Asian J. Trop. Med. Public Health, 1992;23 Suppl 3:94-109.
PMID: 1342764
Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends
[Prognostic evaluations of the medical and demographic processes]

Tishuk EA

Probl Sotsialnoi Gig Zdravookhranenniiai Istor Med, 2003 Sep-Oct.
PMID: 14661406

The medical-and-demographic processes as a starting point for the planning of means and resources for the short- and average-term future are forecasted in the paper on the basis of long-term peculiarities of the natural-science data and with respect for the social-and-economic crisis now underway in the country.

Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends*
A Systematic Review and International Web-Based Survey of Randomized Controlled Trials in the Perioperative and Critical Care Setting: Interventions Reducing Mortality

Sartini C, Lomivorotov V, Pieri M, Lopez-Delgado JC, Baiardo Redaelli M, Hajjar L, et al.

J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth, 2019 05;33(5):1430-1439.
PMID: 30600204 DOI: 10.1053/j.jvca.2018.11.026

The authors aimed to identify interventions documented by randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that reduce mortality in adult critically ill and perioperative patients, followed by a survey of clinicians' opinions and routine practices to understand the clinicians' response to such evidence. The authors performed a comprehensive literature review to identify all topics reported to reduce mortality in perioperative and critical care settings according to at least 2 RCTs or to a multicenter RCT or to a single-center RCT plus guidelines. The authors generated position statements that were voted on online by physicians worldwide for agreement, use, and willingness to include in international guidelines. From 262 RCT manuscripts reporting mortality differences in the perioperative and critically ill settings, the authors selected 27 drugs, techniques, and strategies (66 RCTs, most frequently published by the New England Journal of Medicine [13 papers], Lancet [7], and Journal of the American Medical Association [5]) with an agreement ≥67% from over 250 physicians (46 countries). Noninvasive ventilation was the intervention supported by the largest number of RCTs (n = 13). The concordance between agreement and use (a positive answer both to "do you agree" and "do you use") showed differences between Western and other countries and between anesthesiologists and intensive care unit physicians. The authors identified 27 clinical interventions with randomized evidence of survival benefit and strong clinician support in support of their potential life-saving properties in perioperative and critically ill patients with noninvasive ventilation having the highest level of support. However, clinician views appear affected by specialty and geographical location.

Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends
Variations in common diseases, hospital admissions, and deaths in middle-aged adults in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study

Dagenais GR, Leong DP, Rangarajan S, Lanas F, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Gupta R, et al.

Lancet, 2020 03 07;395(10226):785-794.
PMID: 31492501 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32007-0

BACKGROUND: To our knowledge, no previous study has prospectively documented the incidence of common diseases and related mortality in high-income countries (HICs), middle-income countries (MICs), and low-income countries (LICs) with standardised approaches. Such information is key to developing global and context-specific health strategies. In our analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, we aimed to evaluate differences in the incidence of common diseases, related hospital admissions, and related mortality in a large contemporary cohort of adults from 21 HICs, MICs, and LICs across five continents by use of standardised approaches.
METHODS: The PURE study is a prospective, population-based cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years who have been enrolled from 21 countries across five continents. The key outcomes were the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular diseases, cancers, injuries, respiratory diseases, and hospital admissions, and we calculated the age-standardised and sex-standardised incidence of these events per 1000 person-years.
FINDINGS: This analysis assesses the incidence of events in 162 534 participants who were enrolled in the first two phases of the PURE core study, between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, and who were assessed for a median of 9·5 years (IQR 8·5-10·9). During follow-up, 11 307 (7·0%) participants died, 9329 (5·7%) participants had cardiovascular disease, 5151 (3·2%) participants had a cancer, 4386 (2·7%) participants had injuries requiring hospital admission, 2911 (1·8%) participants had pneumonia, and 1830 (1·1%) participants had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cardiovascular disease occurred more often in LICs (7·1 cases per 1000 person-years) and in MICs (6·8 cases per 1000 person-years) than in HICs (4·3 cases per 1000 person-years). However, incident cancers, injuries, COPD, and pneumonia were most common in HICs and least common in LICs. Overall mortality rates in LICs (13·3 deaths per 1000 person-years) were double those in MICs (6·9 deaths per 1000 person-years) and four times higher than in HICs (3·4 deaths per 1000 person-years). This pattern of the highest mortality in LICs and the lowest in HICs was observed for all causes of death except cancer, where mortality was similar across country income levels. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of deaths overall (40%) but accounted for only 23% of deaths in HICs (vs 41% in MICs and 43% in LICs), despite more cardiovascular disease risk factors (as judged by INTERHEART risk scores) in HICs and the fewest such risk factors in LICs. The ratio of deaths from cardiovascular disease to those from cancer was 0·4 in HICs, 1·3 in MICs, and 3·0 in LICs, and four upper-MICs (Argentina, Chile, Turkey, and Poland) showed ratios similar to the HICs. Rates of first hospital admission and cardiovascular disease medication use were lowest in LICs and highest in HICs.
INTERPRETATION: Among adults aged 35-70 years, cardiovascular disease is the major cause of mortality globally. However, in HICs and some upper-MICs, deaths from cancer are now more common than those from cardiovascular disease, indicating a transition in the predominant causes of deaths in middle-age. As cardiovascular disease decreases in many countries, mortality from cancer will probably become the leading cause of death. The high mortality in poorer countries is not related to risk factors, but it might be related to poorer access to health care.
FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends
Fulltext Estimating the global economic benefits of physically active populations over 30 years (2020-2050)

Hafner M, Yerushalmi E, Stepanek M, Phillips W, Pollard J, Deshpande A, et al.

Br J Sports Med, 2020 Dec;54(24):1482-1487.
PMID: 33239354 DOI: 10.1136/bjsports-2020-102590

OBJECTIVES: We assess the potential benefits of increased physical activity for the global economy for 23 countries and the rest of the world from 2020 to 2050. The main factors taken into account in the economic assessment are excess mortality and lower productivity.
METHODS: This study links three methodologies. First, we estimate the association between physical inactivity and workplace productivity using multivariable regression models with proprietary data on 120 143 individuals in the UK and six Asian countries (Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Sri Lanka). Second, we analyse the association between physical activity and mortality risk through a meta-regression analysis with data from 74 prior studies with global coverage. Finally, the estimated effects are combined in a computable general equilibrium macroeconomic model to project the economic benefits of physical activity over time.
RESULTS: Doing at least 150 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per week, as per lower limit of the range recommended by the 2020 WHO guidelines, would lead to an increase in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.15%-0.24% per year by 2050, worth up to US$314-446 billion per year and US$6.0-8.6 trillion cumulatively over the 30-year projection horizon (in 2019 prices). The results vary by country due to differences in baseline levels of physical activity and GDP per capita.
CONCLUSIONS: Increasing physical activity in the population would lead to reduction in working-age mortality and morbidity and an increase in productivity, particularly through lower presenteeism, leading to substantial economic gains for the global economy.

Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends*
Poverty and mortality among the elderly: measurement of performance in 33 countries 1960-92

Wang J, Jamison DT, Bos E, Vu MT

Trop Med Int Health, 1997 Oct;2(10):1001-10.
PMID: 9357491

This paper analyses the effect of income and education on life expectancy and mortality rates among the elderly in 33 countries for the period 1960-92 and assesses how that relationship has changed over time as a result of technical progress. Our outcome variables are life expectancy at age 60 and the probability of dying between age 60 and age 80 for both males and females. The data are from vital-registration based life tables published by national statistical offices for several years during this period. We estimate regressions with determinants that include GDP per capita (adjusted for purchasing power), education and time (as a proxy for technical progress). As the available measure of education failed to account for variation in life expectancy or mortality at age 60, our reported analyses focus on a simplified model with only income and time as predictors. The results indicate that, controlling for income, mortality rates among the elderly have declined considerably over the past three decades. We also find that poverty (as measured by low average income levels) explains some of the variation in both life expectancy at age 60 and mortality rates among the elderly across the countries in the sample. The explained amount of variation is more substantial for females than for males. While poverty does adversely affect mortality rates among the elderly (and the strength of this effect is estimated to be increasing over time), technical progress appears far more important in the period following 1960. Predicted female life expectancy (at age 60) in 1960 at the mean income level in 1960 was, for example 18.8 years; income growth to 1992 increased this by an estimated 0.7 years, whereas technical progress increased it by 2.0 years. We then use the estimated regression results to compare country performance on life expectancy of the elderly, controlling for levels of poverty (or income), and to assess how performance has varied over time. High performing countries, on female life expectancy at age 60, for the period around 1990, included Chile (1.0 years longer life expectancy), China (1.7 years longer), France (2.0 years longer), Japan (1.9 years longer), and Switzerland (1.3 years longer). Poorly performing countries included Denmark (1.1 years shorter life expectancy than predicted from income), Hungary (1.4 years shorter), Iceland (1.2 years shorter), Malaysia (1.6 years shorter), and Trinidad and Tobago (3.9 years shorter). Chile and Switzerland registered major improvements in relative performance over this period; Norway, Taiwan and the USA, in contrast showed major declines in performance between 1980 and the early 1990s.

Matched MeSH terms: Mortality/trends*

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