METHODOLOGY: This study was conducted using daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 collected from the official Ministry of Health, Malaysia (MOH) and John Hopkins University websites. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the training data of observed cases from 22 January to 31 March 2020, and subsequently validated using data on cases from 1 April to 17 April 2020. The ARIMA model satisfactorily forecasted the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from 18 April 2020 to 1 May 2020 (the testing phase).
RESULTS: The ARIMA (0,1,0) model produced the best fit to the observed data with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 16.01 and a Bayes Information Criteria (BIC) value of 4.170. The forecasted values showed a downward trend of COVID-19 cases until 1 May 2020. Observed cases during the forecast period were accurately predicted and were placed within the prediction intervals generated by the fitted model.
CONCLUSIONS: This study finds that ARIMA models with optimally selected covariates are useful tools for monitoring and predicting trends of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia.
METHODS: Twelve relevant manuscripts were sourced from a total of 7288 search results obtained using PubMed, Medline and Google Scholar. The search keywords used were COVID-19, nasopharyngeal, oropharyngeal, swabs, SARS and CoV2. Original manuscripts were obtained and analysed by all authors. The review included manuscripts which have not undergone rigorous peer-review process in view of the magnitude of the topic discussed.
RESULTS: The viral load of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the upper respiratory tract was significantly higher during the first week and peaked at 4-6 days after onset of symptoms, during which it can be potentially sampled. Nasopharyngeal swab has demonstrated higher viral load than oropharyngeal swab, where the difference in paired samples is best seen at 0-9 days after the onset of illness. Sensitivity of nasopharyngeal swab was higher than oropharyngeal swabs in COVID-19 patients. Patient self-collected throat washing has been shown to contain higher viral load than nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swab, with significantly higher sensitivity when compared with paired nasopharyngeal swab.
RECOMMENDATIONS: Routine nasopharyngeal swab of suspected COVID-19 infection should take anatomy of the nasal cavity into consideration to increase patient comfort and diagnostic yield. Routine oropharyngeal swab should be replaced by throat washing which has demonstrated better diagnostic accuracy, and it is safe towards others.
AREAS COVERED: There is no specific contraindication or caution related to COVID-19 on the use of antihypertensives unless patients develop severe hypotension from septic shock where all antihypertensives should be discontinued or severe hyperkalemia in which continuation of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors is not desired. The continuation of antiplatelet or statin is not desired when severe thrombocytopenia or severe transminitis develop, respectively. Patients with atrial fibrillation receiving oral anticoagulants, particularly those who are critically ill, should be considered for substitution to parenteral anticoagulants.
EXPERT OPINION: An individualized approach to medication management among hospitalized COVID-19 patients with concurrent CVDs would seem prudent with attention paid to changes in clinical conditions and medications intended for COVID-19. The decision to modify prescribed long-term CV medications should be entailed by close follow-up to check if a revision on the decision is needed, with resumption of any long-term CV medication before discharge if it is discontinued during hospitalization for COVID-19, to ensure continuity of care.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: A review of multiple reports and kit inserts on the diagnostic performance of rapid tests from various manufacturers that are commercially available were performed. Only preliminary data are available currently.
RESULTS: From a total of nine rapid detection test (RDT) kits, three kits offer total antibody detection, while six kits offer combination SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG detection in two separate test lines. All kits are based on colloidal gold-labeled immunochromatography principle and one-step method with results obtained within 15 minutes, using whole blood, serum or plasma samples. The sensitivity for both IgM and IgG tests ranges between 72.7% and 100%, while specificity ranges between 98.7% to 100%. Two immunochromatography using nasopharyngeal or throat swab for detection of COVID-19 specific antigen are also reviewed.
CONCLUSIONS: There is much to determine regarding the value of serological testing in COVID-19 diagnosis and monitoring. More comprehensive evaluations of their performance are rapidly underway. The use of serology methods requires appropriate interpretations of the results and understanding the strengths and limitations of such tests.