METHODS: Data for 66 adult HPVG patients who visited the EDs of 2 research hospitals between October 1999 and April 2016 were analyzed. REMS, RAPS, and MEWS were calculated based on data in the ED, and probability of death was calculated for each patient based on these scores. The ability of REMS, RAPS, and MEWS to predict group mortality was assessed by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calibration analysis.
RESULTS: The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for each scoring system were 92.1%, 89.3%, and 90.9% for REMS, 86.8%, 82.1%, and 84.8% for RAPS, and 78.9%, 89.3%, and 83.3% for MEWS respectively. In the ROC curve analysis, the areas under the curve for REMS, RAPS, and MEWS were 0.929, 0.877, and 0.856 respectively.
CONCLUSION: Our study is the largest series performed in a population of adult HPVG patients in the ED. The results from this study demonstrate that REMS is superior in predicting the mortality of these patients compared to RAPS and MEWS. We therefore recommend that REMS be used for outcome prediction and risk stratification of adult HPVG in the ED.
METHODS: From June 2013 through May 2014, diarrheal stool samples were collected at one national referral hospital in Thimphu, two regional referral hospitals in the eastern and central regions, and one general hospital in the western region of Bhutan. NoV was detected by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), by amplifying the capsid gene. The RT-PCR results were confirmed by nucleotide sequencing of the amplicons.
RESULTS: The proportion of NoV-positive stool samples was 23.6% (147/623), of which 76.9% were NoV GII and the remainders were NoV GI. The median age of infected children was 15.5 months, with a fairly balanced female: male ratio. NoV GII was most prevalent in the colder months (late November-mid April) and NoV GI had the highest prevalence in the summer (mid April-late September). Nucleotide sequencing was successful in 99 samples of GII strains. The most common genotypes were GII.3 (42.6%), GII.4 Sydney 2012 (15.8%), and GII.4 unassigned (11.9%). No GII.21 was found in any child in the present study. Phylogenetic analysis showed that GII.3 strains in the present study belonged to an independent cluster in lineage B. These strains shared an ancestor with those from different countries and Bhutanese strains circulating during 2010.
CONCLUSION: NoV remains an important cause of diarrhea among Bhutanese children. Genotype GII.3 from a single ancestor strain has spread, replacing the previously circulating GII.21. Current NoV genotypes are similar to the strains circulating worldwide but are primarily related to those in neighboring countries. NoV GII is prevalent during the cold season, while GI is prevalent during the summer. To develop a NoV infection control policy, further studies are needed.