BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: As about 50% of cancer patients may require radiotherapy, the demand of radiotherapy as the main treatment to treat cancer is likely to rise due to rising cancer incidence. This study aims to quantify the radiotherapy demand in countries in Southeast Asia (SEA) in 2025 and 2035 using evidence-based optimal radiotherapy fractions.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: SEA country-specific cancer incidence by tumor site for 2015, 2025 and 2035 was extracted from the GLOBOCAN database. We utilized the optimal radiotherapy utilization rate model by Wong et al. (2016) to calculate the optimal number of fractions for all tumor sites in each SEA country. The available machines (LINAC & Co-60) were extracted from the IAEA's Directory of Radiotherapy Centres (DIRAC) from which the number of available fractions was calculated.
RESULTS: The incidence of cancers in SEA countries are expected to be 1.1 mil cases (2025) and 1.4 mil (2035) compared to 0.9 mil (2015). The number of radiotherapy fractions needed in 2025 and 2035 are 11.1 and 14.1 mil, respectively, compared to 7.6 mil in 2015. In 2015, the radiotherapy fulfillment rate (RFR; required fractions/available fractions) varied between countries with Brunei, Singapore and Malaysia are highest (RFR > 1.0 - available fractions > required fractions), whereas Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, Philippines, Timor-Leste and Vietnam have RFR
* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.