METHODS: We investigated overall obesity and abdominal adiposity in relation to SIC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), a large prospective cohort of approximately half a million men and women from ten European countries. Overall obesity and abdominal obesity were assessed by body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was performed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). Stratified analyses were conducted by sex, BMI, and smoking status.

RESULTS: During an average of 13.9 years of follow-up, 131 incident cases of SIC (including 41 adenocarcinomas, 44 malignant carcinoid tumors, 15 sarcomas and 10 lymphomas, and 21 unknown histology) were identified. WC was positively associated with SIC in a crude model that also included BMI (HR per 5-cm increase = 1.20, 95 % CI 1.04, 1.39), but this association attenuated in the multivariable model (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 0.98, 1.42). However, the association between WC and SIC was strengthened when the analysis was restricted to adenocarcinoma of the small intestine (multivariable HR adjusted for BMI = 1.56, 95 % CI 1.11, 2.17). There were no other significant associations.

CONCLUSION: WC, rather than BMI, may be positively associated with adenocarcinomas but not carcinoid tumors of the small intestine.

METHODS: We analyzed data from 1710 incident CRC cases and 1649 incidence-density-matched controls nested within three prospective cohorts of mostly Caucasians. Study-specific incidence rate ratios (RRs) for associations of prediagnostic, season-standardized 25(OH)D concentrations according to DBP2 isoform with CRC were estimated using multivariable unconditional logistic regression and were pooled using fixed-effects models. All statistical significance tests were two-sided.

METHODS: We built two models, for ER+ (ModelER+) and ER- tumors (ModelER-), respectively, in 281,330 women (51% postmenopausal at recruitment) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (the agreement between predicted and observed tumor risks) were assessed both internally and externally in 82,319 postmenopausal women from the Women's Health Initiative study. We performed decision curve analysis to compare ModelER+ and the Gail model (ModelGail) regarding their applicability in risk assessment for chemoprevention.

RESULTS: Parity, number of full-term pregnancies, age at first full-term pregnancy and body height were only associated with ER+ tumors. Menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, hormone replacement therapy, postmenopausal body mass index, and alcohol intake were homogeneously associated with ER+ and ER- tumors. Internal validation yielded a C-statistic of 0.64 for ModelER+ and 0.59 for ModelER-. External validation reduced the C-statistic of ModelER+ (0.59) and ModelGail (0.57). In external evaluation of calibration, ModelER+ outperformed the ModelGail: the former led to a 9% overestimation of the risk of ER+ tumors, while the latter yielded a 22% underestimation of the overall BC risk. Compared with the treat-all strategy, ModelER+ produced equal or higher net benefits irrespective of the benefit-to-harm ratio of chemoprevention, while ModelGail did not produce higher net benefits unless the benefit-to-harm ratio was below 50. The clinical applicability, i.e. the area defined by the net benefit curve and the treat-all and treat-none strategies, was 12.7 × 10- 6 for ModelER+ and 3.0 × 10- 6 for ModelGail.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: We assessed the association between plasma phospholipid fatty acids and breast cancer risk in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Sixty fatty acids were measured by gas chromatography in pre-diagnostic plasma phospholipids from 2982 incident breast cancer cases matched to 2982 controls. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate relative risk of breast cancer by fatty acid level. The false discovery rate (q values) was computed to control for multiple comparisons. Subgroup analyses were carried out by estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor expression in the tumours.

RESULTS: A high level of palmitoleic acid [odds ratio (OR) for the highest quartile compared with the lowest OR (Q4-Q1) 1.37; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.14-1.64; P for trend = 0.0001, q value = 0.004] as well as a high desaturation index (DI16) (16:1n-7/16:0) [OR (Q4-Q1), 1.28; 95% C, 1.07-1.54; P for trend = 0.002, q value = 0.037], as biomarkers of de novo lipogenesis, were significantly associated with increased risk of breast cancer. Levels of industrial trans-fatty acids were positively associated with ER-negative tumours [OR for the highest tertile compared with the lowest (T3-T1)=2.01; 95% CI, 1.03-3.90; P for trend = 0.047], whereas no association was found for ER-positive tumours (P-heterogeneity =0.01). No significant association was found between n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and breast cancer risk, overall or by hormonal receptor.

SUMMARY ANSWER: Although there was no overall association between diabetes and age at menopause, our study suggests that early-onset diabetes may accelerate menopause.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Today, more women of childbearing age are being diagnosed with diabetes, but little is known about the impact of diabetes on reproductive health.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We investigated the impact of diabetes on age at natural menopause (ANM) in 258 898 women from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), enrolled between 1992 and 2000.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Determinant and outcome information was obtained through questionnaires. Time-dependent Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the associations of diabetes and age at diabetes diagnosis with ANM, stratified by center and adjusted for age, smoking, reproductive and diabetes risk factors and with age from birth to menopause or censoring as the underlying time scale.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Overall, no association between diabetes and ANM was found (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89-1.01). However, women with diabetes before the age of 20 years had an earlier menopause (10-20 years: HR = 1.43; 95% CI 1.02-2.01, <10 years: HR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.03-2.43) compared with non-diabetic women, whereas women with diabetes at age 50 years and older had a later menopause (HR = 0.81; 95% CI 0.70-0.95). None of the other age groups were associated with ANM.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Strengths of the study include the large sample size and the broad set of potential confounders measured. However, results may have been underestimated due to survival bias. We cannot be sure about the sequence of the events in women with a late age at diabetes, as both events then occur in a short period. We could not distinguish between type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Based on the literature, an accelerating effect of early-onset diabetes on ANM might be plausible. A delaying effect of late-onset diabetes on ANM has not been reported before, and is not in agreement with recent studies suggesting the opposite association.

METHODS: Collaborating investigators from 15 prospective studies provided individual-participant records (from predominantly men of white European ancestry) on blood or toenail selenium concentrations and prostate cancer risk. Odds ratios of prostate cancer by selenium concentration were estimated using multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS: Blood selenium was not associated with the risk of total prostate cancer (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio [OR] per 80 percentile increase = 1.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.83 to 1.23, based on 4527 case patients and 6021 control subjects). However, there was heterogeneity by disease aggressiveness (ie, advanced stage and/or prostate cancer death, Pheterogeneity = .01), with high blood selenium associated with a lower risk of aggressive disease (OR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.21 to 0.87) but not with nonaggressive disease. Nail selenium was inversely associated with total prostate cancer (OR = 0.29, 95% CI = 0.22 to 0.40, Ptrend < .001, based on 1970 case patients and 2086 control subjects), including both nonaggressive (OR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.22 to 0.50) and aggressive disease (OR = 0.18, 95% CI = 0.11 to 0.31, Pheterogeneity = .08).

METHODS: Associations between prediagnostic plasma levels of 17 primary, secondary, and tertiary bile acid metabolites (conjugated and unconjugated) and colon cancer risk were evaluated in a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Bile acid levels were quantified by tandem mass spectrometry in samples from 569 incident colon cancer cases and 569 matched controls. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for colon cancer risk across quartiles of bile acid concentrations.

RESULTS: Positive associations were observed between colon cancer risk and plasma levels of seven conjugated bile acid metabolites: the primary bile acids glycocholic acid (ORquartile 4 vs quartile 1= 2.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.52 to 3.26), taurocholic acid (OR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.23 to 2.58), glycochenodeoxycholic acid (OR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.13 to 2.48), taurochenodeoxycholic acid (OR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.11 to 2.36), and glycohyocholic acid (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.13 to 2.40), and the secondary bile acids glycodeoxycholic acid (OR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.12 to 2.54) and taurodeoxycholic acid (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.02 to 2.31). By contrast, unconjugated bile acids and tertiary bile acids were not associated with risk.

METHOD: Between 1995 and 2000, a standardized 24-h dietary recall was conducted among 36,018 men and women from 27 European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study centres. Adjusted arithmetic means of intakes were estimated in grams (=volume) per day by sex and centre. Means of intake across centres were compared by sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle factors.

RESULTS: In women, the mean daily intake of coffee ranged from 94 g/day (~0.6 cups) in Greece to 781 g/day (~4.4 cups) in Aarhus (Denmark), and tea from 14 g/day (~0.1 cups) in Navarra (Spain) to 788 g/day (~4.3 cups) in the UK general population. Similar geographical patterns for mean daily intakes of both coffee and tea were observed in men. Current smokers as compared with those who reported never smoking tended to drink on average up to 500 g/day more coffee and tea combined, but with substantial variation across centres. Other individuals' characteristics such as educational attainment or age were less predictive. In all centres, coffee and tea contributed to less than 10% of the energy intake. The greatest contribution to total sugar intakes was observed in Southern European centres (up to ~20%).

METHODS: We applied H. pylori multiplex serology to measure antibody responses to 13 H. pylori proteins in prediagnostic serum samples from 485 colorectal cancer cases and 485 matched controls nested within the EPIC study. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using multivariable conditional logistic regression to estimate the association of H. pylori overall and protein-specific seropositivity with odds of developing colorectal cancer.

RESULTS: Fifty-one percent of colorectal cancer cases were H. pylori seropositive compared with 44% of controls, resulting in an OR of 1.36 (95% CI, 1.00-1.85). Among the 13 individual H. pylori proteins, the association was driven mostly by seropositivity to Helicobacter cysteine-rich protein C (HcpC; OR: 1.66; 95% CI, 1.19-2.30) and Vacuolating cytotoxin A (VacA) (OR: 1.34; 95% CI, 0.99-1.82), the latter being nonstatistically significant only in the fully adjusted model.

CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective multicenter European study, antibody responses to H. pylori proteins, specifically HcpC and VacA, were associated with an increased risk of developing colorectal cancer.

METHODS: The analysis was performed within the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition prospective cohort study, which enrolled >500,000 women and men from 1992 to 2000, who were residing in a given town/geographic area in 10 European countries. The current analysis included 322,972 eligible women aged 25-70 years with 99 % complete follow-up for vital status. We assessed reproductive characteristics reported at the study baseline including parity, age at the first birth, breastfeeding, infertility, oral contraceptive use, age at menarche and menopause, total ovulatory years, and history of oophorectomy/hysterectomy. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality were determined using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for menopausal status, body mass index, physical activity, education level, and smoking status/intensity and duration.

RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 12.9 years, 14,383 deaths occurred. The HR (95 % CI) for risk of all-cause mortality was lower in parous versus nulliparous women (0.80; 0.76-0.84), in women who had ever versus never breastfed (0.92; 0.87-0.97), in ever versus never users of oral contraceptives (among non-smokers; 0.90; 0.86-0.95), and in women reporting a later age at menarche (≥15 years versus <12; 0.90; 0.85-0.96; P for trend = 0.038).

METHODS: Baseline plasma fatty acid concentrations were determined in a representative EPIC sample from the 23 participating EPIC centers. A total of 1,945 individuals were followed for a median of 4.9 years to monitor weight change. The association between elaidic acid level and percent change of weight was investigated using a multinomial logistic regression model, adjusted by length of follow-up, age, energy, alcohol, smoking status, physical activity, and region.