METHODS: The residential addresses of 3054 notified CHIKV cases in 2009-2010 were georeferenced onto a base map of Sarawak with spatial data of rivers and roads using R software. The spatiotemporal spread was determined and clusters were detected using the space-time scan statistic with SaTScan.
RESULTS: Overall CHIKV incidence was 127 per 100 000 population (range, 0-1125 within districts). The average speed of spread was 70.1 km/wk, with a peak of 228 cases/wk and the basic reproduction number (R0) was 3.1. The highest age-specific incidence rate was 228 per 100 000 in adults aged 50-54 y. Significantly more cases (79.4%) lived in rural areas compared with the general population (46.2%, p<0.0001). Five CHIKV clusters were detected. Likely spread was mostly by road, but a fifth of rural cases were spread by river travel.
CONCLUSIONS: CHIKV initially spread quickly in rural areas mainly via roads, with lesser involvement of urban areas. Delayed spread occurred via river networks to more isolated areas in the rural interior. Understanding the patterns and timings of arboviral outbreak spread may allow targeted vector control measures at key transport hubs or in large transport vehicles.
METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional study involving 149 healthy adult volunteers from Tanjung Sepat was performed soon after the outbreak had subsided. All the participants donated blood samples and completed the questionnaires. Laboratory detection of anti-CHIKV IgM and IgG antibodies was performed using enzyme-linked immunoassays (ELISA). Risk factors associated with chikungunya seropositivity were determined using logistic regression.
RESULTS: The majority (72.5%, n = 108) of the study participants tested positive for CHIKV antibodies. Only 8.3% (n = 9) of the participants out of all the seropositive volunteers had an asymptomatic infection. Participants who resided with a febrile (p < 0.05, Exp(B) = 2.2, confidence interval [CI] 1.3-3.6) or a CHIKV-diagnosed person (p < 0.05, Exp(B) = 2.1, CI 1.2-3.6) in the same household were found likely to be tested positive for CHIKV antibodies.
CONCLUSIONS: Findings from the study support that asymptomatic CHIKV infections and indoor transmission occurred during the outbreak. Hence, widespread community testing and indoor use of mosquito repellent are among the possible measures that can be implemented to reduce CHIKV transmission during an outbreak.
METHODS: In this systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study, we searched PubMed, Ovid, and Web of Science for articles published from database inception until Sept 26, 2022, for prospective and retrospective cross-sectional studies that addressed serological chikungunya virus infection in any geographical region, age group, and population subgroup and for longitudinal prospective and retrospective cohort studies with data on chronic chikungunya or hospital admissions in people with chikungunya. We did a systematic review of studies on chikungunya seroprevalence and fitted catalytic models to each survey to estimate location-specific FOI (ie, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire chikungunya infection). We performed a meta-analysis to estimate the proportion of symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed chikungunya who had chronic chikungunya or were admitted to hospital following infection. We used a random-effects model to assess the relationship between chronic sequelae and follow-up length using linear regression. The systematic review protocol is registered online on PROSPERO, CRD42022363102.
FINDINGS: We identified 60 studies with data on seroprevalence and chronic chikungunya symptoms done across 76 locations in 38 countries, and classified 17 (22%) of 76 locations as endemic settings and 59 (78%) as epidemic settings. The global long-term median annual FOI was 0·007 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·003-0·010) and varied from 0·0001 (0·00004-0·0002) to 0·113 (0·07-0·20). The highest estimated median seroprevalence at age 10 years was in south Asia (8·0% [95% UI 6·5-9·6]), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (7·8% [4·9-14·6]), whereas median seroprevalence was lowest in the Middle East (1·0% [0·5-1·9]). We estimated that 51% (95% CI 45-58) of people with laboratory-confirmed symptomatic chikungunya had chronic disability after infection and 4% (3-5) were admitted to hospital following infection.
INTERPRETATION: We inferred subnational heterogeneity in long-term average annual FOI and transmission dynamics and identified both endemic and epidemic settings across different countries. Brazil, Ethiopia, Malaysia, and India included both endemic and epidemic settings. Long-term average annual FOI was higher in epidemic settings than endemic settings. However, long-term cumulative incidence of chikungunya can be similar between large outbreaks in epidemic settings with a high FOI and endemic settings with a relatively low FOI.
FUNDING: International Vaccine Institute.