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Fulltext A novel data-driven methodology for influenza outbreak detection and prediction

Du L, Pang Y

Sci Rep, 2021 06 24;11(1):13275.
PMID: 34168200 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-92484-6

Influenza is an infectious disease that leads to an estimated 5 million cases of severe illness and 650,000 respiratory deaths worldwide each year. The early detection and prediction of influenza outbreaks are crucial for efficient resource planning to save patient's lives and healthcare costs. We propose a new data-driven methodology for influenza outbreak detection and prediction at very local levels. A doctor's diagnostic dataset of influenza-like illness from more than 3000 clinics in Malaysia is used in this study because these diagnostic data are reliable and can be captured promptly. A new region index (RI) of the influenza outbreak is proposed based on the diagnostic dataset. By analysing the anomalies in the weekly RI value, potential outbreaks are identified using statistical methods. An ensemble learning method is developed to predict potential influenza outbreaks. Cross-validation is conducted to optimize the hyperparameters of the ensemble model. A testing data set is used to provide an unbiased evaluation of the model. The proposed methodology is shown to be sensitive and accurate at influenza outbreak prediction, with average of 75% recall, 74% precision, and 83% accuracy scores across five regions in Malaysia. The results are also validated by Google Flu Trends data, news reports, and surveillance data released by World Health Organization.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology
Fulltext A returning migrant worker with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus infection in Guizhou, China: a case report

Wang D, Tang G, Huang Y, Yu C, Li S, Zhuang L, et al.

J Med Case Rep, 2015;9:109.
PMID: 25962780 DOI: 10.1186/s13256-015-0580-1

Human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first reported on March, 2013 in the Yangtze River Delta region of China. The majority of human cases were detected in mainland China; other regions out of mainland China reported imported human cases, including Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan (the Republic of China) and Malaysia, due to human transportation. Here, we report the first human case of H7N9 infection imported into Guizhou Province during the Spring Festival travel season in January 2014.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology
Fulltext A review on current trends in the treatment of human infection with H7N9-avian influenza A

Sivanandy P, Zi Xien F, Woon Kit L, Tze Wei Y, Hui En K, Chia Lynn L

J Infect Public Health, 2018 09 10;12(2):153-158.
PMID: 30213468 DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2018.08.005

The H7N9 subtype of avian influenza is an enzootic and airborne virus which caused an influenza outbreak in China. Infected individuals mostly worked with poultry, suggesting H7N9 virus-infected poultry as the primary source of human infection. Significantly increased levels of proinflammatory mediators (chemokines, cytokines) during virus infection could hamper the immune system and aggravate the infection. Severe cases are marked by fulminant pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and encephalopathy. Left untreated, the condition may rapidly progress to multi-organ failure and death. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) is the gold standard diagnostic test for H7N9 avian influenza. Use of neurominidase inhibitor antivirals remain the main treatment. New antivirals are developed to counteract neurominidase inhibitor resistance H7N9 viral strains. Corticosteroid use in viral pneumonia may provoke mortality and longer viral shedding time. Subjects at high risk of contracting avian influenza H7N9 infection are recommended to receive annual seasonal influenza vaccination.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology
An influenza B outbreak during the 2007/2008 winter among appropriately immunized elderly people living in a nursing home

Camilloni B, Neri M, Lepri E, Basileo M, Sigismondi N, Puzelli S, et al.

Vaccine, 2010 Nov 3;28(47):7536-41.
PMID: 20846530 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.08.064

The study evaluated the immunogenicity and efficacy of a trivalent subunit MF59-adjuvanted influenza vaccine (A/Wisconsin/67/05 (H3N2), A/Solomon Islands/3/06 (H1N1) and B/Malaysia/2506/04) in preventing serologically diagnosed infections in a group of 67 institutionalized elderly volunteers during 2007/2008 winter, characterized by co-circulation of drifted A/H3N2, A/H1N1 and B influenza viruses. Influenza vaccination induced a significant increase in the amounts of hemagglutination inhibiting antibodies, both against the vaccine and the epidemic drifted strains. However, vaccination did not prevent the circulation of the new drifted influenza B virus (B/Florida/4/06-like), belonging to the B/Yamagata/16/88-lineage, antigenically and genetically distinct from B/Victoria/2/87-lineage viruses from which the vaccine B strain was derived.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology*
An outbreak of Hongkong influenza in a youth camp in West Malaysia

Tan DS, Dhillon GS, Omar M, Eapen JS

Med J Malaya, 1971 Jun;25(4):263-8.
PMID: 4261297
Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology*
An outbreak of influenza due to type B virus in a residential boys' school in Malaya

GORDON SMITH CE, THOMSON WG

Med J Malaya, 1956 Jun;10(4):332-7.
PMID: 13399536
Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology*
Analysis of human infectious avian influenza virus: hemagglutinin genetic characteristics in Asia and Africa from 2004 to 2009

Zhang J, Lei F

Integr Zool, 2010 Sep;5(3):264-71.
PMID: 21392344 DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-4877.2010.00212.x

In the present study, we used nucleotide and protein sequences of avian influenza virus H5N1, which were obtained in Asia and Africa, analyzed HA proteins using ClustalX1.83 and MEGA4.0, and built a genetic evolutionary tree of HA nucleotides. The analysis revealed that the receptor specificity amino acid of A/HK/213/2003, A/Turkey/65596/2006 and etc mutated into QNG, which could bind with á-2, 3 galactose and á-2, 6 galactose. A mutation might thus take place and lead to an outbreak of human infections of avian influenza virus. The mutations of HA protein amino acids from 2004 to 2009 coincided with human infections provided by the World Health Organization, indicating a "low-high-highest-high-low" pattern. We also found out that virus strains in Asia are from different origins: strains from Southeast Asia and East Asia are of the same origin, whereas those from West Asia, South Asia and Africa descend from one ancestor. The composition of the phylogenetic tree and mutations of key site amino acids in HA proteins reflected the fact that the majority of strains are regional and long term, and virus diffusions exist between China, Laos, Malaysia, Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iraq. We would advise that pertinent vaccines be developed and due attention be paid to the spread of viruses between neighboring countries and the dangers of virus mutation and evolution.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology*
Asian influenza in the Army in Malaya in 1957

VANREENEN RM, ELISBERG BL, WEBB PA, TRAUB RG, TRAUB R

J R Army Med Corps, 1960 Jan;106:12-21.
PMID: 13841274
Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology*
Fulltext Breastfeeding--anti-viral potential and relevance to the influenza virus pandemic

Prameela KK

Med J Malaysia, 2011 Jun;66(2):166-9; quiz 170.
PMID: 22106709

Essential nutritive and immunological ingredients abundantly present in breastmilk make it the choice infant nutrition. The uniqueness of mother's milk, in contrast to most therapeutics and immunizations, lies in its potential to adapt itself to the requirements of the infant so that timely immune defenses are tapped from its constituents by immune regulation, modulation and immune acceleration to stimulate novel substances; these render it pertinent as defense when faced with challenging organisms. While it is appreciated that immunity can be transferred from mother to infant through breastmilk following maternal influenza vaccination, the immense benefits conferred by breastfeeding per se during influenza pandemics may not be fully valued. This is substantiated by debates and ambiguities for continued breastfeeding in the face of maternal influenza infections. This article emphasises the utmost importance of breastfeeding in viral pandemics in the light of the changing immunological strategies used by viruses at different times and the urgent need for such opportune defenses. The prolific interaction of its constituents is frequently understated as enormous advantages to the suckling infant.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology
Causative Pathogens of Febrile Neutropaenia in Children Treated for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia

Lam JC, Chai JY, Wong YL, Tan NW, Ha CT, Chan MY, et al.

Ann Acad Med Singap, 2015 Nov;44(11):530-4.
PMID: 27089960

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) using intensive chemotherapy has resulted in high cure rates but also substantial morbidity. Infective complications represent a significant proportion of treatment-related toxicity. The objective of this study was to describe the microbiological aetiology and clinical outcome of episodes of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropaenia in a cohort of children treated for ALL at our institution.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with ALL were treated with either the HKSGALL93 or the Malaysia-Singapore (Ma-Spore) 2003 chemotherapy protocols. The records of 197 patients who completed the intensive phase of treatment, defined as the period of treatment from induction, central nervous system (CNS)-directed therapy to reinduction from June 2000 to January 2010 were retrospectively reviewed.
RESULTS: There were a total of 587 episodes of febrile neutropaenia in 197 patients, translating to an overall rate of 2.98 episodes per patient. A causative pathogen was isolated in 22.7% of episodes. An equal proportion of Gram-positive bacteria (36.4%) and Gram-negative bacteria (36.4%) were most frequently isolated followed by viral pathogens (17.4%), fungal pathogens (8.4%) and other bacteria (1.2%). Fungal organisms accounted for a higher proportion of clinically severe episodes of febrile neutropaenia requiring admission to the high-dependency or intensive care unit (23.1%). The overall mortality rate from all episodes was 1.5%.
CONCLUSION: Febrile neutropaenia continues to be of concern in ALL patients undergoing intensive chemotherapy. The majority of episodes will not have an identifiable causative organism. Gram-positive bacteria and Gram-negative bacteria were the most common causative pathogens identified. With appropriate antimicrobial therapy and supportive management, the overall risk of mortality from febrile neutropaenia is extremely low.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology
Changes in the prevalence of influenza-like illness and influenza vaccine uptake among Hajj pilgrims: A 10-year retrospective analysis of data

Alfelali M, Barasheed O, Tashani M, Azeem MI, El Bashir H, Memish ZA, et al.

Vaccine, 2015 May 21;33(22):2562-9.
PMID: 25887084 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.04.006

Influenza is an important health hazard among Hajj pilgrims. For the last ten years, pilgrims are being recommended to take influenza vaccine before attending Hajj. Vaccination coverage has increased in recent years, but whether there has been any change in the prevalence of influenza-like illness (ILI) is not known. In this analysis, we examined the changes in the rate of ILI against seasonal influenza vaccine uptake among Hajj pilgrims over the last decade.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology*
Fulltext Characteristics of children hospitalized for pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Malaysia

Muhammad Ismail HI, Tan KK, Lee YL, Pau WS, Razali KA, Mohamed T, et al.

Emerg Infect Dis, 2011 Apr;17(4):708-10.
PMID: 21470467 DOI: 10.3201/eid1704.101212

To determine effects of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 on children in the tropics, we examined characteristics of children hospitalized for this disease in Malaysia. Of 1,362 children, 51 (3.7%) died, 46 of whom were in an intensive care unit. Although disease was usually mild, ≥ 1 concurrent conditions were associated with higher death rates.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology*
Fulltext Clinical features of Malaysian children hospitalized with community-acquired seasonal influenza

Sam IC, Abdul-Murad A, Karunakaran R, Rampal S, Chan YF, Nathan AM, et al.

Int J Infect Dis, 2010 Sep;14 Suppl 3:e36-40.
PMID: 20153233 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2009.10.005

OBJECTIVES: The clinical impact of seasonal influenza is understudied in tropical countries. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical features and seasonal pattern of influenza in children hospitalized in Malaysia, and to identify predictors of severe disease.
METHODS: Children hospitalized with community-acquired, laboratory-confirmed influenza at a teaching hospital in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia during 2002-2007 were identified retrospectively. Clinical data were collected, and predictors of severe disease were identified by multivariate logistic regression. All influenza cases from 1982 to 2007 were also analyzed for seasonal patterns.
RESULTS: A total of 132 children were included in the study, 48 (36.4%) of whom had underlying medical conditions. The mean age was 2.5 years and 116 (87.9%) were <5 years old. The most common presenting features were fever or history of fever, cough, rhinitis, vomiting, and pharyngitis. Severe influenza was seen in 16 patients (12.1%; nine previously healthy), including 12 (9.1%; eight previously healthy) requiring intensive care. There were three (2.3%) deaths. Severe disease was associated with age <12 months, female sex, and absence of rhinitis on admission. Influenza was seen year-round, with peaks in November-January and May-July.
CONCLUSIONS: Seasonal influenza has a considerable impact on children hospitalized in Malaysia, in both the healthy and those with underlying medical conditions.

Study site: University Malaya Medical Centre (UMMC)

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology
Fulltext Comparative global epidemiology of influenza, respiratory syncytial and parainfluenza viruses, 2010-2015

Lam TT, Tang JW, Lai FY, Zaraket H, Dbaibo G, Bialasiewicz S, et al.

J Infect, 2019 10;79(4):373-382.
PMID: 31323249 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2019.07.008

OBJECTIVES: To improve our understanding of the global epidemiology of common respiratory viruses by analysing their contemporaneous incidence at multiple sites.
METHODS: 2010-2015 incidence data for influenza A (IAV), influenza B (IBV), respiratory syncytial (RSV) and parainfluenza (PIV) virus infections were collected from 18 sites (14 countries), consisting of local (n = 6), regional (n = 9) and national (n = 3) laboratories using molecular diagnostic methods. Each site submitted monthly virus incidence data, together with details of their patient populations tested and diagnostic assays used.
RESULTS: For the Northern Hemisphere temperate countries, the IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks were 2-6 months out of phase with those in the Southern Hemisphere, with IAV having a sharp out-of-phase difference at 6 months, whereas IBV and RSV showed more variable out-of-phase differences of 2-6 months. The tropical sites Singapore and Kuala Lumpur showed fluctuating incidence of these viruses throughout the year, whereas subtropical sites such as Hong Kong, Brisbane and Sydney showed distinctive biannual peaks for IAV but not for RSV and PIV.
CONCLUSIONS: There was a notable pattern of synchrony of IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks globally, and within countries with multiple sampling sites (Canada, UK, Australia), despite significant distances between these sites.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology*
Fulltext Component-specific effectiveness of trivalent influenza vaccine as monitored through a sentinel surveillance network in Canada, 2006-2007

Skowronski DM, De Serres G, Dickinson J, Petric M, Mak A, Fonseca K, et al.

J Infect Dis, 2009 Jan 15;199(2):168-79.
PMID: 19086914 DOI: 10.1086/595862

Trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) is reformulated annually to contain representative strains of 2 influenza A subtypes (H1N1 and H3N2) and 1 B lineage (Yamagata or Victoria). We describe a sentinel surveillance approach to link influenza variant detection with component-specific vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimation.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology*
Cost-utility analysis of antiviral use under pandemic influenza using a novel approach - linking pharmacology, epidemiology and heath economics

Wu DBC, Chaiyakunapruk N, Pratoomsoot C, Lee KKC, Chong HY, Nelson RE, et al.

Epidemiol Infect, 2018 03;146(4):496-507.
PMID: 29446343 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268818000158

Simulation models are used widely in pharmacology, epidemiology and health economics (HEs). However, there have been no attempts to incorporate models from these disciplines into a single integrated model. Accordingly, we explored this linkage to evaluate the epidemiological and economic impact of oseltamivir dose optimisation in supporting pandemic influenza planning in the USA. An HE decision analytic model was linked to a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) - dynamic transmission model simulating the impact of pandemic influenza with low virulence and low transmissibility and, high virulence and high transmissibility. The cost-utility analysis was from the payer and societal perspectives, comparing oseltamivir 75 and 150 mg twice daily (BID) to no treatment over a 1-year time horizon. Model parameters were derived from published studies. Outcomes were measured as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the integrated model's robustness. Under both pandemic scenarios, compared to no treatment, the use of oseltamivir 75 or 150 mg BID led to a significant reduction of influenza episodes and influenza-related deaths, translating to substantial savings of QALYs. Overall drug costs were offset by the reduction of both direct and indirect costs, making these two interventions cost-saving from both perspectives. The results were sensitive to the proportion of inpatient presentation at the emergency visit and patients' quality of life. Integrating PK/PD-EPI/HE models is achievable. Whilst further refinement of this novel linkage model to more closely mimic the reality is needed, the current study has generated useful insights to support influenza pandemic planning.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology
Fulltext Cross cultural translation, adaptation and reliability of the Malay version of the Canadian Acute Respiratory Illness and Flu Scale (CARIFS)

Nathan AM, Zaki R, Rozario R, Dhania N, Mohd Hamirudin SN, Eg KP, et al.

Health Qual Life Outcomes, 2015;13:139.
PMID: 26338016 DOI: 10.1186/s12955-015-0336-z

The Canadian Acute Respiratory Illness and Flu Scale (CARIFS) is a parent-proxy questionnaire that assesses severity of acute respiratory infections in children. The aim was to (a) perform a cross-cultural adaptation and (b) prove that the Malay CARIFS is a reliable tool.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology
Diarrhoeal problems in Southeast Asia

Sunoto

Southeast Asian J. Trop. Med. Public Health, 1982 Sep;13(3):306-18.
PMID: 7163834

Diarrhoea up till now is still a major problem in Southeast Asia with high morbidity and mortality, particularly among children under 5 years of age, with the peak in children between 6 - 24 months. In Indonesia, in 1981, it was estimated that there are 60 million episodes with 300,000 - 500,000 deaths. In the Philippines, diarrhoea ranks as a second cause of morbidity (600 per 100,000 in 1974) and second cause of infant mortality (5 per 1,000 in 1974). In Thailand, in 1980, the morbidity rate was 524 per 100,000 and the mortality rate 14 per 100,000. In Malaysia, in 1976, diarrhoea was still ranking number 5 (3.1%) as a cause of total admission and number 9 (2.2%) as a cause of total deaths. In Singapore, diarrhoea still ranks number 3 as a cause of deaths (4% of total deaths). In Bangladesh, the overall attack rates imply a prevalence of 2.0% for the entire population, with the highest for under 5 groups i.e. 4.1%. The diarrhoea episode in rural population is 85.4%, 39% of them are children under 5. The most common enteropathogens found in all countries are rotavirus followed by Enterotoxigenic E. coli, Vibrio spp., Salmonella spp., Shigella spp. and Campylobacter. Malnutrition and decline of giving breast-feeding play an important role in causing high morbidity, besides socio-economic, socio-cultural and poor environmental sanitation.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology
Effect of Influenza Vaccination on Acute Respiratory Symptoms in Malaysian Hajj Pilgrims

Hasan H, Deris ZZ, Sulaiman SA, Abdul Wahab MS, Naing NN, Ab Rahman Z, et al.

J Immigr Minor Health, 2015 Aug;17(4):1114-9.
PMID: 24946936 DOI: 10.1007/s10903-014-0059-y

Respiratory illness were a major problem and caused high hospital admission during hajj seasons. One of the contributing cause to this illness is infection. Various measures had been implemented to reduce respiratory infections. The aim on the study is to determine the effect of influenza vaccination against acute respiratory illness among Malaysian Hajj pilgrims. This is an observational cohort study. Influenza vaccination was given to pilgrims at least 2 weeks prior to departure. The occurrence of symptoms for respiratory illness such as cough, fever, sore throat and runny nose was monitored daily for 6 weeks during pilgrimage using a health diary. A total of 65 vaccinated hajj pilgrims and 41 controls were analyzed. There was no significant difference in pattern of occurrence of symptoms of respiratory illness by duration of pilgrimage as well as the number of symptoms between both groups. Hajj pilgrims have frequent respiratory symptoms. We were unable to document benefit from influenza vaccination, but our study was limited by a small sample size and lack of laboratory testing for influenza.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology
Effectiveness of influenza vaccination in prevention of influenza-like illness among inhabitants of old folk homes

Isahak I, Mahayiddin AA, Ismail R

Southeast Asian J. Trop. Med. Public Health, 2007 Sep;38(5):841-8.
PMID: 18041300

The aims of the study were to determine the attack rate of influenza-like illness among inhabitants of five old folk homes nationwide using influenza vaccine as a probe and the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in prevention of influenza-like illness. We conducted a nonrandomized, single-blind placebo control study from June 2003 to February 2004. VAXIGRIP(R) 2003 Southern hemisphere formulation was used. Among 527 subjects, the attack rates of influenza-like illness in the influenza vaccine group were 6.4, 4.6 and 2.4% during the first, second and third 2-month periods, respectively. The attack rates of influenza-like illness in the placebo group were 17.7, 13.8 and 10.1%. Influenza vaccination reduced the risk of contracting influenza-like illness by between 14, and 45%. The vaccine effectiveness in reducing the occurrence of influenza-like illness ranged from 55 to 76%, during the 6-month study followup. The presence of cerebrovascular diseases significantly increased the risk of influenza-like illness (p < 0.005). Vaccine recipients had fewer episodes of fever, cough, muscle aches, runny nose (p < 0.001) and experience fewer sick days due to respiratory illness. Subjects who received influenza vaccination had clinically and statistically significant reductions in the attack rate of influenza-like illness. Our data support influenza vaccination of persons with chronic diseases and >50 year olds living in institutions.

Matched MeSH terms: Influenza, Human/epidemiology

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