METHODS AND FINDINGS: Our approach is based on a parsimonious mathematical model of disease transmission and only requires data collected through routine surveillance and standard case investigations. We apply it to assess the transmissibility of swine-origin influenza A H3N2v-M virus in the US, Nipah virus in Malaysia and Bangladesh, and also present a non-zoonotic example (cholera in the Dominican Republic). Estimation is based on two simple summary statistics, the proportion infected by the natural reservoir among detected cases (G) and among the subset of the first detected cases in each cluster (F). If detection of a case does not affect detection of other cases from the same cluster, we find that R can be estimated by 1-G; otherwise R can be estimated by 1-F when the case detection rate is low. In more general cases, bounds on R can still be derived.
CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a simple approach with limited data requirements that enables robust assessment of the risks posed by emerging zoonoses. We illustrate this by deriving transmissibility estimates for the H3N2v-M virus, an important step in evaluating the possible pandemic threat posed by this virus. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
METHODS: We did an environmentally stratified, population-based, cross-sectional survey across households in the Kudat, Kota Marudu, Pitas, and Ranau districts in northern Sabah, Malaysia, encompassing a range of ecologies. Using blood samples, the transmission intensity of P knowlesi and other malaria species was measured by specific antibody prevalence and infection detected using molecular methods. Proportions and configurations of land types were extracted from maps derived from satellite images; a data-mining approach was used to select variables. A Bayesian hierarchical model for P knowlesi seropositivity was developed, incorporating questionnaire data about individual and household-level risk factors with selected landscape factors.
FINDINGS: Between Sept 17, 2015, and Dec 12, 2015, 10 100 individuals with a median age of 25 years (range 3 months to 105 years) were sampled from 2849 households in 180 villages. 5·1% (95% CI 4·8-5·4) were seropositive for P knowlesi, and marked historical decreases were observed in the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Nine Plasmodium spp infections were detected. Age, male sex, contact with macaques, forest use, and raised house construction were positively associated with P knowlesi exposure, whereas residing at higher geographical elevations and use of insecticide were protective. Agricultural and forest variables, such as proportions and fragmentation of land cover types, predicted exposure at different spatial scales from households.
INTERPRETATION: Although few infections were detected, P knowlesi exposure was observed in all demographic groups and was associated with occupational factors. Results suggest that agricultural expansion and forest fragmentation affect P knowlesi exposure, supporting linkages between land use change and P knowlesi transmission.
FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, and Biotechnology and Biosciences Research Council.
METHODS: Mosquitoes found landing on humans and resting on leaves over a 5-day period at two sites in the Lawas District of northern Sarawak were collected and identified. DNA samples extracted from salivary glands of Anopheles mosquitoes were subjected to nested PCR malaria-detection assays. The small subunit ribosomal RNA (SSU rRNA) gene of Plasmodium was sequenced, and the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) and mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) gene of the mosquitoes were sequenced from the Plasmodium-positive samples for phylogenetic analysis.
RESULTS: Totals of 65 anophelines and 127 culicines were collected. By PCR, 6 An. balabacensis and 5 An. donaldi were found to have single P. knowlesi infections while 3 other An. balabacensis had either single, double or triple infections with P. inui, P. fieldi, P. cynomolgi and P. knowlesi. Phylogenetic analysis of the Plasmodium SSU rRNA gene confirmed 3 An. donaldi and 3 An. balabacensis with single P. knowlesi infections, while 3 other An. balabacensis had two or more Plasmodium species of P. inui, P. knowlesi, P. cynomolgi and some species of Plasmodium that could not be conclusively identified. Phylogenies inferred from the ITS2 and/or cox1 sequences of An. balabacensis and An. donaldi indicate that they are genetically indistinguishable from An. balabacensis and An. donaldi, respectively, found in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo.
CONCLUSIONS: Previously An. latens was identified as the vector for P. knowlesi in Kapit, central Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, and now An. balabacensis and An. donaldi have been incriminated as vectors for zoonotic malaria in Lawas, northern Sarawak.