METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For eight destination countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Singapore), we collected age-dependent seroepidemiological data. We also retrieved the number of imported cases, who were notified to the Japanese government, as well as the total number of travelers to each destination. Using a mathematical model, we estimated the force of infection in each destination country with seroepidemiological data while jointly inferring the reporting coverage of DENV infections among Japanese travelers from datasets of imported cases and travelers. Assuming that travelers had a risk of infection that was identical to that of the local population during travel, the reporting coverage of dengue appeared to range from 0.6% to 4.3%. The risk of infection per journey ranged from 0.02% to 0.44%.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found that the actual number of imported cases of DENV infection among Japanese travelers could be more than 20 times the notified number of imported cases. This finding may be attributed to the substantial proportion of asymptomatic and under-ascertained infections.
RESULTS: Mosquitoes were collected from a total of 15 sites using gravid traps and a backpack aspirator around Kampong Puruh Karu, Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, where sylvatic DENV spillover has been documented. A total of 2447 mosquitoes comprising 10 genera and 4 species of Aedes, were collected over the three years, 2013, 2014 and 2016, in the three major land cover types in the area, homestead, agriculture and forest. Mosquitoes were identified morphologically, pooled by species and gender, homogenized, and subject to DNA barcoding of each Aedes species and to arbovirus screening. As predicted, Ae. niveus was found almost exclusively in forests whereas Ae. albopictus was collected in all land cover types. Aedes albopictus was significantly (P = 0.04) more abundant in agricultural fields than forests. Sylvatic DENV was not detected in any Aedes mosquito pools, however genomes of 14 viruses were detected using next generation sequencing.
CONCLUSIONS: Land cover type affects the abundance and distribution of the most likely bridge vectors of sylvatic DENV in Malaysia Borneo. Conversion of forests to agriculture will likely decrease the range and abundance of Ae. niveus but enhance the abundance of Ae. albopictus.
METHODS: This validation study involves retrospective review of available hospital discharge records and hand-search medical records for years 2010 and 2013. We randomly selected 3219 hospital discharge records coded with dengue and non-dengue infections as their discharge diagnoses from the national hospital discharge database. We then randomly sampled 216 and 144 records for patients with and without codes for dengue respectively, in keeping with their relative frequency in the MOH database, for chart review. The ICD codes for dengue were validated against lab-based diagnostic standard (NS1 or IgM).
RESULTS: The ICD-10-CM codes for dengue had a sensitivity of 94%, modest specificity of 83%, positive predictive value of 87% and negative predictive value 92%. These results were stable between 2010 and 2013. However, its specificity decreased substantially when patients manifested with bleeding or low platelet count.
CONCLUSION: The diagnostic performance of the ICD codes for dengue in the MOH's hospital discharge database is adequate for use in health services research on dengue.
Methods: This is a cross-sectional study using an available secondary data source - the Malaysian national dengue passive surveillance system, e-Dengue registry. A total of 61 455 serologically confirmed dengue cases from the Klang Valley, registered in year 2014, were included. We retrospectively examined the relationship between demographic factors and the choice of health-care sector by logistic regression.
Results: The median age of the cohort was 26 (interquartile range: 17 to 37) years. More private facilities (54.4%) were used for inpatient care; more public facilities (68.2%) were used for outpatient care. The Chinese and urban populations showed significantly higher use of the private health-care sector with an adjusted odds ratio of 4.8 [95% confidence interval (CI): 4.6-5.1] and 2.3 (95% CI: 2.2-2.4), respectively.
Conclusion: Both public and private health facilities bear significant responsibilities in delivering health-care services to dengue patients. The workload of both sectors should be included in future health policy planning by public agencies.
METHODS: A total of 14 focus group discussions were conducted with 84 Malaysian citizens of different socio-demographic backgrounds between 16(th) December, 2011 and 12(th) May, 2012.
RESULTS: The study revealed that awareness about DF and prevention measures were high. The pathophysiology of dengue especially dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS) were rarely known; as a result, it was seen as deadly by some but was also perceived as easily curable by others without a basis of understanding. Young adults and elderly participants had a low perception of susceptibility to DF. In general, the low perceived susceptibility emerged as two themes, namely a perceived natural ability to withstand infection and a low risk of being in contact with the dengue virus vector, Aedes spp. mosquitoes. The barriers to sustained self-prevention against dengue prevention that emerged in focus groups were: i) lack of self-efficacy, ii) lack of perceived benefit, iii) low perceived susceptibility, and iv) unsure perceived susceptibility. Low perceived benefit of continued dengue prevention practices was a result of lack of concerted action against dengue in their neighborhood. Traditional medical practices and home remedies were widely perceived and experienced as efficacious in treating DF.
CONCLUSION: Behavioural change towards attaining sustainability in dengue preventive practices may be enhanced by fostering comprehensive knowledge of dengue and a change in health beliefs. Wide use of unconventional therapy for DF warrants the need to enlighten the public to limit their reliance on unproven alternative treatments.
CONCLUDING REMARKS: DengueTools was able to make significant advances in methods for understanding and controlling dengue transmission in a range of settings. These will have implications for public health agendas to counteract dengue, including vaccination programmes.
OUTLOOK: Towards the end of the DengueTools project, Zika virus emerged as an unexpected epidemic in the central and southern America. Given the similarities between the dengue and Zika viruses, with vectors in common, some of the DengueTools thinking translated readily into the Zika situation.
METHODS AND FINDINGS: As a key step to estimate the economic and disease burden of dengue in Southeast Asia (SEA), we projected dengue cases from 2001 through 2010 using EFs. We conducted a systematic literature review (1995-2011) and identified 11 published articles reporting original, empirically derived EFs or the necessary data, and 11 additional relevant studies. To estimate EFs for total cases in countries where no empirical studies were available, we extrapolated data based on the statistically significant inverse relationship between an index of a country's health system quality and its observed reporting rate. We compiled an average 386,000 dengue episodes reported annually to surveillance systems in the region, and projected about 2.92 million dengue episodes. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, simultaneously varying the most important parameters in 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and derived 95% certainty level of 2.73-3.38 million dengue episodes. We estimated an overall EF in SEA of 7.6 (95% certainty level: 7.0-8.8) dengue cases for every case reported, with an EF range of 3.8 for Malaysia to 19.0 in East Timor.
CONCLUSION: Studies that make no adjustment for underreporting would seriously understate the burden and cost of dengue in SEA and elsewhere. As the sites of the empirical studies we identified were not randomly chosen, the exact extent of underreporting remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the results reported here, based on a systematic analysis of the available literature, show general consistency and provide a reasonable empirical basis to adjust for underreporting.