Displaying publications 181 - 200 of 264 in total

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  1. Toward understanding the distribution of Laurasian frogs: a test of Savage's biogeographical hypothesis using the genus Bombina
    Zheng Y, Fu J, Li S
    Mol Phylogenet Evol, 2009 Jul;52(1):70-83.
    PMID: 19348953 DOI: 10.1016/j.ympev.2009.03.026
    Several anuran groups of Laurasian origin are each co-distributed in four isolated regions of the Northern Hemisphere: central/southern Europe and adjacent areas, Korean Peninsula and adjacent areas, Indo-Malaya, and southern North America. Similar distribution patterns have been observed in diverse animal and plant groups. Savage [Savage, J.M., 1973. The geographic distribution of frogs: patterns and predictions. In: Vial, J.L. (Ed.), Evolutionary Biology of the Anurans. University of Missouri Press, Columbia, pp. 351-445] hypothesized that the Miocene global cooling and increasing aridities in interiors of Eurasia and North America caused a southward displacement and range contraction of Laurasian frogs (and other groups). We use the frog genus Bombina to test Savage's biogeographical hypothesis. A phylogeny of Bombina is reconstructed based on three mitochondrial and two nuclear gene fragments. The genus is divided into three major clades: an Indo-Malaya clade includes B. fortinuptialis, B. lichuanensis, B. maxima, and B. microdeladigitora; a European clade includes B. bombina, B. pachypus, and B. variegata; and a Korean clade contains B. orientalis. The European and Korean clades form sister-group relationship. Molecular dating of the phylogenetic tree using the penalized likelihood and Bayesian analyses suggests that the divergence between the Indo-Malaya clade and other Bombina species occurred 5.9-28.6 million years ago. The split time between the European clade and the Korean clade is estimated at 5.1-20.9 million years ago. The divergence times of these clades are not significantly later than the timing of Miocene cooling and drying, and therefore can not reject Savage's hypothesis. Some other aspects of biogeography of Bombina also are discussed. The Korean Peninsula and the Shandong Peninsula might have supplied distinct southern refugia for B. orientalis during the Pleistocene glacial maxima. In the Indo-Malaya clade, the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau might have promoted the split between B. maxima and the other species.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  2. Patterns of genetic diversity and migration in increasingly fragmented and declining orang-utan (Pongo pygmaeus) populations from Sabah, Malaysia
    Goossens B, Chikhi L, Jalil MF, Ancrenaz M, Lackman-Ancrenaz I, Mohamed M, et al.
    Mol Ecol, 2005 Feb;14(2):441-56.
    PMID: 15660936
    We investigated the genetic structure within and among Bornean orang-utans (Pongo pygmaeus) in forest fragments of the Lower Kinabatangan flood plain in Sabah, Malaysia. DNA was extracted from hair and faecal samples for 200 wild individuals collected during boat surveys on the Kinabatangan River. Fourteen microsatellite loci were used to characterize patterns of genetic diversity. We found that genetic diversity was high in the set of samples (mean H(E) = 0.74) and that genetic differentiation was significant between the samples (average F(ST) = 0.04, P < 0.001) with F(ST) values ranging from low (0.01) to moderately large (0.12) values. Pairwise F(ST) values were significantly higher across the Kinabatangan River than between samples from the same river side, thereby confirming the role of the river as a natural barrier to gene flow. The correlation between genetic and geographical distance was tested by means of a series of Mantel tests based on different measures of geographical distance. We used a Bayesian method to estimate immigration rates. The results indicate that migration is unlikely across the river but cannot be completely ruled out because of the limited F(ST) values. Assignment tests confirm the overall picture that gene flow is limited across the river. We found that migration between samples from the same side of the river had a high probability indicating that orang-utans used to move relatively freely between neighbouring areas. This strongly suggests that there is a need to maintain migration between isolated forest fragments. This could be done by restoring forest corridors alongside the river banks and between patches.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  3. Population pharmacokinetic modelling of tramadol with application of the NPEM algorithms
    Gan SH, Ismail R, Wan Adnan WA, Zulmi W, Jelliffe RW
    J Clin Pharm Ther, 2004 Oct;29(5):455-63.
    PMID: 15482390
    Although the kinetic behaviour of tramadol has been described, the present study is the first to our knowledge, to report specifically on the population pharmacokinetic modelling of tramadol hydrochloride.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  4. Fulltext Pleistocene divergence across a mountain range and the influence of selection on mitogenome evolution in threatened Australian freshwater cod species
    Harrisson K, Pavlova A, Gan HM, Lee YP, Austin CM, Sunnucks P
    Heredity (Edinb), 2016 Jun;116(6):506-15.
    PMID: 26883183 DOI: 10.1038/hdy.2016.8
    Climatic differences across a taxon's range may be associated with specific bioenergetic demands and may result in genetics-based metabolic adaptation, particularly in aquatic ectothermic organisms that rely on heat exchange with the environment to regulate key physiological processes. Extending down the east coast of Australia, the Great Dividing Range (GDR) has a strong influence on climate and the evolutionary history of freshwater fish species. Despite the GDR acting as a strong contemporary barrier to fish movement, many species, and species with shared ancestries, are found on both sides of the GDR, indicative of historical dispersal events. We sequenced complete mitogenomes from the four extant species of the freshwater cod genus Maccullochella, two of which occur on the semi-arid, inland side of the GDR, and two on the mesic coastal side. We constructed a dated phylogeny and explored the relative influences of purifying and positive selection in the evolution of mitogenome divergence among species. Results supported mid- to late-Pleistocene divergence of Maccullochella across the GDR (220-710 thousand years ago), bringing forward previously reported dates. Against a background of pervasive purifying selection, we detected potentially functionally relevant fixed amino acid differences across the GDR. Although many amino acid differences between inland and coastal species may have become fixed under relaxed purifying selection in coastal environments rather than positive selection, there was evidence of episodic positive selection acting on specific codons in the Mary River coastal lineage, which has consistently experienced the warmest and least extreme climate in the genus.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  5. The complex phylogeography of the Indo-Malayan Alophoixus bulbuls with the description of a putative new ring species complex
    Fuchs J, Ericson PG, Bonillo C, Couloux A, Pasquet E
    Mol Ecol, 2015 Nov;24(21):5460-74.
    PMID: 26224534 DOI: 10.1111/mec.13337
    The Indo-Malayan bioregion has provided some of the most spectacular discoveries of new vertebrate species (e.g. saola, khanyou, bare-faced bulbul) over the last 25 years. Yet, very little is known about the processes that led to the current biodiversity in this region. We reconstructed the phylogeographic history of a group of closely related passerines, the Alophoixus bulbuls. These birds are continuously distributed in Indo-Malaya around the Thailand lowlands such that their distribution resembles a ring. Our analyses revealed a single colonization event of the mainland from Sundaland with sequential divergence of taxa from southwest to northeast characterized by significant gene flow between parapatric taxa, and reduced or ancient gene flow involving the two taxa at the extremities of the ring. We detected evidence of population expansion in two subspecies, including one that was involved in the closing of the ring. Hence, our analyses indicate that the diversification pattern of Alophoixus bulbuls fits a ring species model driven by geographic isolation. To our knowledge, the Alophoixus bulbuls represent the first case of a putative broken ring species complex in Indo-Malaya. We also discuss the implications of our results on our understanding of the biogeography in Indo-Malaya.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  6. Fulltext Phylogeography of the coastal mosquito Aedes togoi across climatic zones: testing an anthropogenic dispersal hypothesis
    Sota T, Belton P, Tseng M, Yong HS, Mogi M
    PLoS One, 2015;10(6):e0131230.
    PMID: 26107619 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131230
    The coastal mosquito Aedes togoi occurs more or less continuously from subarctic to subtropic zones along the coasts of the Japanese islands and the East Asian mainland. It occurs also in tropical Southeast Asia and the North American Pacific coast, and the populations there are thought to have been introduced from Japan by ship. To test this hypothesis, the genetic divergence among geographic populations of A. togoi was studied using one mitochondrial and three nuclear gene sequences. We detected 71 mitochondrial haplotypes forming four lineages, with high nucleotide diversity around temperate Japan and declining towards peripheral ranges. The major lineage (L1) comprised 57 haplotypes from temperate and subarctic zones in Japan and Southeast Asia including southern China and Taiwan. Two other lineages were found from subtropical islands (L3) and a subarctic area (L4) of Japan. The Canadian population showed one unique haplotype (L2) diverged from the other lineages. In the combined nuclear gene tree, individuals with mitochondrial L4 haplotypes diverged from those with the other mitochondrial haplotypes L1-L3; although individuals with L1-L3 haplotypes showed shallow divergences in the nuclear gene sequences, individuals from Southeast Asia and Canada each formed a monophyletic group. Overall, the genetic composition of the Southeast Asian populations was closely related to that of temperate Japanese populations, suggesting recent gene flow between these regions. The Canadian population might have originated from anthropogenic introduction from somewhere in Asia, but the possibility that it could have spread across the Beringian land bridge cannot be ruled out.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  7. Fulltext Mixed Mating System Are Regulated by Fecundity in Shorea curtisii (Dipterocarpaceae) as Revealed by Comparison under Different Pollen Limited Conditions
    Tani N, Tsumura Y, Fukasawa K, Kado T, Taguchi Y, Lee SL, et al.
    PLoS One, 2015;10(5):e0123445.
    PMID: 25938512 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0123445
    The maintenance of mixed mating was studied in Shorea curtisii, a dominant and widely distributed dipterocarp species in Southeast Asia. Paternity and hierarchical Bayesian analyses were used to estimate the parameters of pollen dispersal kernel, male fecundity and self-pollen affinity. We hypothesized that partial self incompatibility and/or inbreeding depression reduce the number of selfed seeds if the mother trees receive sufficient pollen, whereas reproductive assurance increases the numbers of selfed seeds under low amounts of pollen. Comparison of estimated parameters of self-pollen affinity between high density undisturbed and low density selectively logged forests indicated that self-pollen was selectively excluded from mating in the former, probably due to partial self incompatibility or inbreeding depression until seed maturation. By estimating the self-pollen affinity of each mother tree in both forests, mother trees with higher amount of self-pollen indicated significance of self-pollen affinity with negative estimated value. The exclusion of self-fertilization and/or inbreeding depression during seed maturation occurred in the mother trees with large female fecundity, whereas reproductive assurance increased self-fertilization in the mother trees with lower female fecundity.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  8. Fulltext Do cryptic species exist in Hoplobatrachus rugulosus? An examination using four nuclear genes, the cyt b gene and the complete MT genome
    Yu D, Zhang J, Li P, Zheng R, Shao C
    PLoS One, 2015;10(4):e0124825.
    PMID: 25875761 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0124825
    he Chinese tiger frog Hoplobatrachus rugulosus is widely distributed in southern China, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. It is listed in Appendix II of CITES as the only Class II nationally-protected frog in China. The bred tiger frog known as the Thailand tiger frog, is also identified as H. rugulosus. Our analysis of the Cyt b gene showed high genetic divergence (13.8%) between wild and bred samples of tiger frog. Unexpected genetic divergence of the complete mt genome (14.0%) was also observed between wild and bred samples of tiger frog. Yet, the nuclear genes (NCX1, Rag1, Rhod, Tyr) showed little divergence between them. Despite this and their very similar morphology, the features of the mitochondrial genome including genetic divergence of other genes, different three-dimensional structures of ND5 proteins, and gene rearrangements indicate that H. rugulosus may be a cryptic species complex. Using Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood, and maximum parsimony analyses, Hoplobatrachus was resolved as a sister clade to Euphlyctis, and H. rugulosus (BT) as a sister clade to H. rugulosus (WT). We suggest that we should prevent Thailand tiger frogs (bred type) from escaping into wild environments lest they produce hybrids with Chinese tiger frogs (wild type).
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  9. Application of autonomous neural network systems to medical pattern classification tasks
    Lim CP, Harrison RF, Kennedy RL
    Artif Intell Med, 1997 Nov;11(3):215-39.
    PMID: 9413607
    This paper presents a study of the application of autonomously learning multiple neural network systems to medical pattern classification tasks. In our earlier work, a hybrid neural network architecture has been developed for on-line learning and probability estimation tasks. The network has been shown to be capable of asymptotically achieving the Bayes optimal classification rates, on-line, in a number of benchmark classification experiments. In the context of pattern classification, however, the concept of multiple classifier systems has been proposed to improve the performance of a single classifier. Thus, three decision combination algorithms have been implemented to produce a multiple neural network classifier system. Here the applicability of the system is assessed using patient records in two medical domains. The first task is the prognosis of patients admitted to coronary care units; whereas the second is the prediction of survival in trauma patients. The results are compared with those from logistic regression models, and implications of the system as a useful clinical diagnostic tool are discussed.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  10. Systematic placement of an enigmatic Southeast Asian taxon Eupetes macrocerus and implications for the biogeography of a main songbird radiation, the Passerida
    Jønsson KA, Fjeldså J, Ericson PG, Irestedt M
    Biol Lett, 2007 Jun 22;3(3):323-6.
    PMID: 17347105
    Biogeographic connections between Australia and other continents are still poorly understood although the plate tectonics of the Indo-Pacific region is now well described. Eupetes macrocerus is an enigmatic taxon distributed in a small area on the Malay Peninsula and on Sumatra and Borneo. It has generally been associated with Ptilorrhoa in New Guinea on the other side of Wallace's Line, but a relationship with the West African Picathartes has also been suggested. Using three nuclear markers, we demonstrate that Eupetes is the sister taxon of the South African genus Chaetops, and their sister taxon in turn being Picathartes, with a divergence in the Eocene. Thus, this clade is distributed in remote corners of Africa and Asia, which makes the biogeographic history of these birds very intriguing. The most parsimonious explanation would be that they represent a relictual basal group in the Passerida clade established after a long-distance dispersal from the Australo-Papuan region to Africa. Many earlier taxonomic arrangements may have been based on assumptions about relationships with similar-looking forms in the same, or adjacent, biogeographic regions, and revisions with molecular data may uncover such cases of neglect of ancient relictual patterns reflecting past connections between the continents.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  11. Fulltext Forecasting daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Malaysia using ARIMA models
    Singh S, Murali Sundram B, Rajendran K, Boon Law K, Aris T, Ibrahim H, et al.
    J Infect Dev Ctries, 2020 09 30;14(9):971-976.
    PMID: 33031083 DOI: 10.3855/jidc.13116
    INTRODUCTION: The novel coronavirus infection has become a global threat affecting almost every country in the world. As a result, it has become important to understand the disease trends in order to mitigate its effects. The aim of this study is firstly to develop a prediction model for daily confirmed COVID-19 cases based on several covariates, and secondly, to select the best prediction model based on a subset of these covariates.

    METHODOLOGY: This study was conducted using daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 collected from the official Ministry of Health, Malaysia (MOH) and John Hopkins University websites. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the training data of observed cases from 22 January to 31 March 2020, and subsequently validated using data on cases from 1 April to 17 April 2020. The ARIMA model satisfactorily forecasted the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from 18 April 2020 to 1 May 2020 (the testing phase).

    RESULTS: The ARIMA (0,1,0) model produced the best fit to the observed data with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 16.01 and a Bayes Information Criteria (BIC) value of 4.170. The forecasted values showed a downward trend of COVID-19 cases until 1 May 2020. Observed cases during the forecast period were accurately predicted and were placed within the prediction intervals generated by the fitted model.

    CONCLUSIONS: This study finds that ARIMA models with optimally selected covariates are useful tools for monitoring and predicting trends of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia.

    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  12. Fulltext The impact of implementing HIV prevention policies therapy and control strategy among HIV and AIDS incidence cases in Malaysia
    Apenteng OO, Osei PP, Oduro B, Kwabla MP, Ismail NA
    Infect Dis Model, 2020;5:755-765.
    PMID: 33073067 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.09.009
    Malaysia is faced with a high HIV/AIDS burden that poses a public health threat. We constructed and applied a compartmental model to understand the spread and control of HIV/AIDS in Malaysia. A simple model for HIV and AIDS disease that incorporates condom and uncontaminated needle-syringes interventions and addresses the relative impact of given treatment therapy for infected HIV newborns on reducing HIV and AIDS incidence is presented. We demonstrated how treatment therapy for new-born babies and the use of condoms or uncontaminated needle-syringes impact the dynamics of HIV in Malaysia. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia from 1986 to 2011. The epidemiological parameters are estimated using Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The reproduction number optimal for control of the HIV/AIDS disease obtained suggests that the disease-free equilibrium was unstable during the 25 years. However, the results indicated that the use of condoms and uncontaminated needle-syringes are pivotal intervention control strategies; a comprehensive adoption of the intervention may help stop the spread of HIV disease. Treatment therapy for newborn babies is also of high value; it reduces the epidemic peak. The combined effect of condom use or uncontaminated needle-syringe is more pronounced in controlling the spread of HIV/AIDS.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  13. Fulltext The Use of System Dynamics Methodology in Building a COVID-19 Confirmed Case Model
    Mohd Yusoff MI
    Comput Math Methods Med, 2020;2020:9328414.
    PMID: 33224268 DOI: 10.1155/2020/9328414
    Researchers used a hybrid model (a combination of health resource demand model and disease transmission model), Bayesian model, and susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to predict health service utilization and deaths and mixed-effect nonlinear regression. Further, they used the mixture model to predict the number of confirmed cases and deaths or to predict when the curve would flatten. In this article, we show, through scenarios developed using system dynamics methodology, besides close to real-world results, the detrimental effects of ignoring social distancing guidelines (in terms of the number of people infected, which decreased as the percentage of noncompliance decreased).
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  14. Genetic Diversity and Demographic History of an Upper Hill Dipterocarp (Shorea platyclados): Implications for Conservation
    Ng CH, Lee SL, Tnah LH, Ng KKS, Lee CT, Diway B, et al.
    J Hered, 2019 12 17;110(7):844-856.
    PMID: 31554011 DOI: 10.1093/jhered/esz052
    Southeast Asian rainforests at upper hill elevations are increasingly vulnerable to degradation because most lowland forest areas have been converted to different land uses. As such, understanding the genetics of upper hill species is becoming more crucial for their future management and conservation. Shorea platyclados is an important, widespread upper hill dipterocarp in Malaysia. To elucidate the genetic structure of S. platyclados and ultimately provide guidelines for a conservation strategy for this species, we carried out a comprehensive study of the genetic diversity and demographic history of S. platyclados. Twenty-seven populations of S. platyclados across its range in Malaysia were genotyped at 15 polymorphic microsatellite loci and sequenced at seven noncoding chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) regions. A total of 303 alleles were derived from the microsatellite loci, and 29 haplotypes were identified based on 2892 bp of concatenated cpDNA sequences. The populations showed moderately high genetic diversity (mean HE = 0.680 for microsatellite gene diversity and HT = 0.650 for total haplotype diversity) and low genetic differentiation (FST = 0.060). Bayesian clustering divided the studied populations into two groups corresponding to western and eastern Malaysia. Bottleneck analysis did not detect any recent bottleneck events. Extended Bayesian skyline analyses showed a model of constant size for the past population history of this species. Based on our findings, priority areas for in situ and ex situ conservation and a minimum population size are recommended for the sustainable utilization of S. platyclados.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  15. Indel-informed Bayesian analysis suggests cryptic population structure between Plasmodium knowlesi of humans and long-tailed macaques (Macaca fascicularis) in Malaysian Borneo
    Wilcox JS, Kerschner A, Hollocher H
    Infect Genet Evol, 2019 11;75:103994.
    PMID: 31421245 DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2019.103994
    Plasmodium knowlesi is an important causative agent of malaria in humans of Southeast Asia. Macaques are natural hosts for this parasite, but little is conclusively known about its patterns of transmission within and between these hosts. Here, we apply a comprehensive phylogenetic approach to test for patterns of cryptic population genetic structure between P. knowlesi isolated from humans and long-tailed macaques from the state of Sarawak in Malaysian Borneo. Our approach differs from previous investigations through our exhaustive use of archival 18S Small Subunit rRNA (18S) gene sequences from Plasmodium and Hepatocystis species, our inclusion of insertion and deletion information during phylogenetic inference, and our application of Bayesian phylogenetic inference to this problem. We report distinct clades of P. knowlesi that predominantly contained sequences from either human or macaque hosts for paralogous A-type and S-type 18S gene loci. We report significant partitioning of sequence distances between host species across both types of loci, and confirmed that sequences of the same locus type showed significantly biased assortment into different clades depending on their host species. Our results support the zoonotic potential of Plasmodium knowlesi, but also suggest that humans may be preferentially infected with certain strains of this parasite. Broadly, such patterns could arise through preferential zoonotic transmission of some parasite lineages or a disposition of parasites to transmit within, rather than between, human and macaque hosts. Available data are insufficient to address these hypotheses. Our results suggest that the epidemiology of P. knowlesi may be more complicated than previously assumed, and highlight the need for renewed and more vigorous explorations of transmission patterns in the fifth human malarial parasite.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  16. Fulltext Genetic diversity of Nipah virus in Bangladesh
    Rahman MZ, Islam MM, Hossain ME, Rahman MM, Islam A, Siddika A, et al.
    Int J Infect Dis, 2021 Jan;102:144-151.
    PMID: 33129964 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.041
    BACKGROUND: Nipah virus (NiV) infection, often fatal in humans, is primarily transmitted in Bangladesh through the consumption of date palm sap contaminated by Pteropus bats. Person-to-person transmission is also common and increases the concern of large outbreaks. This study aimed to characterize the molecular epidemiology, phylogenetic relationship, and the evolution of the nucleocapsid gene (N gene) of NiV.

    METHODS: We conducted molecular detection, genetic characterization, and Bayesian time-scale evolution analyses of NiV using pooled Pteropid bat roost urine samples from an outbreak area in 2012 and archived RNA samples from NiV case patients identified during 2012-2018 in Bangladesh.

    RESULTS: NiV-RNA was detected in 19% (38/456) of bat roost urine samples and among them; nine N gene sequences were recovered. We also retrieved sequences from 53% (21 out of 39) of archived RNA samples from patients. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that all Bangladeshi strains belonged to NiV-BD genotype and had an evolutionary rate of 4.64 × 10-4 substitutions/site/year. The analyses suggested that the strains of NiV-BD genotype diverged during 1995 and formed two sublineages.

    CONCLUSION: This analysis provides further evidence that the NiV strains of the Malaysian and Bangladesh genotypes diverged recently and continue to evolve. More extensive surveillance of NiV in bats and human will be helpful to explore strain diversity and virulence potential to infect humans through direct or person-to-person virus transmission.

    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  17. Genome sequencing and phylogenetic reconstruction reveal a potential fourth rhinovirus species and its worldwide distribution
    Ng KT, Takebe Y, Kamarulzaman A, Tee KK
    Arch Virol, 2021 Jan;166(1):225-229.
    PMID: 33084935 DOI: 10.1007/s00705-020-04855-5
    Genome sequences of members of a potential fourth rhinovirus (RV) species, provisionally denoted as rhinovirus A clade D, from patients with acute respiratory infection were determined. Bayesian coalescent analysis estimated that clade D emerged around the 1940s and diverged further around 2006-2007 into two distinctive sublineages (RV-A8-like and RV-A45-like) that harbored unique "clade-defining" substitutions. Similarity plots and bootscan mapping revealed a recombination breakpoint located in the 5'-UTR region of members of the RV-A8-like sublineage. Phylogenetic reconstruction revealed the distribution of clade D viruses in the Asia Pacific region and in Europe, underlining its worldwide distribution.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  18. Influence of Genotype on Warfarin Maintenance Dose Predictions Produced Using a Bayesian Dose Individualization Tool
    Saffian SM, Duffull SB, Roberts RL, Tait RC, Black L, Lund KA, et al.
    Ther Drug Monit, 2016 12;38(6):677-683.
    PMID: 27855133
    BACKGROUND: A previously established Bayesian dosing tool for warfarin was found to produce biased maintenance dose predictions. In this study, we aimed (1) to determine whether the biased warfarin dose predictions previously observed could be replicated in a new cohort of patients from 2 different clinical settings, (2) to explore the influence of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotype on predictive performance of the Bayesian dosing tool, and (3) to determine whether the previous population used to develop the kinetic-pharmacodynamic model underpinning the Bayesian dosing tool was sufficiently different from the test (posterior) population to account for the biased dose predictions.

    METHODS: The warfarin maintenance doses for 140 patients were predicted using the dosing tool and compared with the observed maintenance dose. The impact of genotype was assessed by predicting maintenance doses with prior parameter values known to be altered by genetic variability (eg, EC50 for VKORC1 genotype). The prior population was evaluated by fitting the published kinetic-pharmacodynamic model, which underpins the Bayesian tool, to the observed data using NONMEM and comparing the model parameter estimates with published values.

    RESULTS: The Bayesian tool produced positively biased dose predictions in the new cohort of patients (mean prediction error [95% confidence interval]; 0.32 mg/d [0.14-0.5]). The bias was only observed in patients requiring ≥7 mg/d. The direction and magnitude of the observed bias was not influenced by genotype. The prior model provided a good fit to our data, which suggests that the bias was not caused by different prior and posterior populations.

    CONCLUSIONS: Maintenance doses for patients requiring ≥7 mg/d were overpredicted. The bias was not due to the influence of genotype nor was it related to differences between the prior and posterior populations. There is a need for a more mechanistic model that captures warfarin dose-response relationship at higher warfarin doses.

    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  19. Composition, sources, and bioavailability of nitrogen in a longitudinal gradient from freshwater to estuarine waters
    Jani J, Toor GS
    Water Res, 2018 06 15;137:344-354.
    PMID: 29571112 DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2018.02.042
    Nitrogen (N) transport from land to water is a dominant contributor of N in estuarine waters leading to eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia. Our objectives were to (1) investigate the composition of inorganic and organic N forms, (2) distinguish the sources and biogeochemical mechanisms of nitrate-N (NO3-N) transport using stable isotopes of NO3- and Bayesian mixing model, and (3) determine the dissolved organic N (DON) bioavailability using bioassays in a longitudinal gradient from freshwater to estuarine ecosystem located in the Tampa Bay, Florida, United States. We found that DON was the most dominant N form (mean: 64%, range: 46-83%) followed by particulate organic N (PON, mean: 22%, range: 14-37%), whereas inorganic N forms (NOx-N: 7%, NH4-N: 7%) were 14% of total N in freshwater and estuarine waters. Stable isotope data of NO3- revealed that nitrification was the main contributor (36.4%), followed by soil and organic N sources (25.5%), NO3- fertilizers (22.4%), and NH4+ fertilizers (15.7%). Bioassays showed that 14 to 65% of DON concentrations decreased after 5-days of incubation indicating utilization of DON by microbes in freshwater and estuarine waters. These results suggest that despite low proportion of inorganic N forms, the higher concentrations and bioavailability of DON can be a potential source of N for algae and bacteria leading to water quality degradation in the estuarine waters.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
  20. Fulltext Approximate Bayesian analysis of Drosophila melanogaster polymorphism data reveals a recent colonization of Southeast Asia
    Laurent SJ, Werzner A, Excoffier L, Stephan W
    Mol Biol Evol, 2011 Jul;28(7):2041-51.
    PMID: 21300986 DOI: 10.1093/molbev/msr031
    Southeast Asian populations of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster differ from ancestral African and derived European populations by several morphological characteristics. It has been argued that this morphological differentiation could be the result of an early colonization of Southeast Asia that predated the migration of D. melanogaster to Europe after the last glacial period (around 10,000 years ago). To investigate the colonization process of Southeast Asia, we collected nucleotide polymorphism data for more than 200 X-linked fragments and 50 autosomal loci from a population of Malaysia. We analyzed this new single nucleotide polymorphism data set jointly with already existing data from an African and a European population by employing an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach. By contrasting different demographic models of these three populations, we do not find any evidence for an early divergence between the African and the Asian populations. Rather, we show that Asian and European populations of D. melanogaster share a non-African most recent common ancestor that existed about 2,500 years ago.
    Matched MeSH terms: Bayes Theorem
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