METHODS: A total of three databases were searched on September 15, 2020: PubMed, Web of Science, and Science Direct. The searches were conducted using a pre-specified search strategy to record studies reported the reproductive number of coronavirus from its inception in December 2019. It includes keywords of coronavirus and its reproductive number, which were combined using the Boolean operators (AND, OR). Based on the included studies, we estimated a summary reproductive number by using the meta-analysis. We used narrative synthesis to explain the results of the studies where the reproductive number was reported, however, were not possible to include in the meta-analysis because of the lack of data (mostly due to confidence interval was not reported).
RESULTS: Total of 42 studies included in this review whereas 29 of them were included in the meta-analysis. The estimated summary reproductive number was 2.87 (95% CI, 2.39-3.44). We found evidence of very high heterogeneity (99.5%) of the reproductive number reported in the included studies. Our sub-group analysis was found the significant variations of reproductive number across the country for which it was estimated, method and model that were used to estimate the reproductive number, number of case that was considered to estimate the reproductive number, and the type of reproductive number that was estimated. The highest reproductive number was reported for the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship in Japan (14.8). In the country-level, the higher reproductive number was reported for France (R, 6.32, 95% CI, 5.72-6.99) following Germany (R, 6.07, 95% CI, 5.51-6.69) and Spain (R, 3.56, 95% CI, 1.62-7.82). The higher reproductive number was reported if it was estimated by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) method and the Epidemic curve model. We also reported significant heterogeneity of the type of reproductive number- a high-value reported if it was the time-dependent reproductive number.
CONCLUSION: The estimated summary reproductive number indicates an exponential increase of coronavirus infection in the coming days. Comprehensive policies and programs are important to reduce new infections as well as the associated adverse consequences including death.
METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.
FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).
INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
METHODS: The global prevalence, years lived with disabilities (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), projection, and inequality were estimated for early MSK diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), osteoarthritis (OA), low back pain (LBP), neck pain (NP), gout, and other MSK diseases (OMSKDs).
FINDINGS: More adolescents and young adults were expected to develop MSK disorders by 2050. Across five age groups, the rates of prevalence, YLDs, and DALYs for RA, NP, LBP, gout, and OMSKDs sharply increased from ages 15-19 to 35-39; however, these were negligible for OA before age 30 but increased notably at ages 30-34, rising at least 6-fold by 35-39. The disease burden of gout, LBP, and OA attributable to high BMI and gout attributable to kidney dysfunction increased, while the contribution of smoking to LBP and RA and occupational ergonomic factors to LBP decreased. Between 1990 and 2019, the slope index of inequality increased for six MSK disorders, and the relative concentration index increased for gout, NP, OA, and OMSKDs but decreased for LBP and RA.
CONCLUSIONS: Multilevel interventions should be initiated to prevent disease burden related to RA, NP, LBP, gout, and OMSKDs among individuals ages 15-19 and to OA among individuals ages 30-34 to tightly control high BMI and kidney dysfunction.
FUNDING: The Global Burden of Disease study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project is funded by the Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).
METHODS: A cost-utility analysis was performed using a validated Markov model, which modelled a cohort of adult patients through health states related to symptom severity and functional impairment, to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The influence of model inputs and assumptions, sensitivity, scenario, and subgroup analyses were explored. All costs were expressed in 2022 Malaysian ringgits (RM). Costs and QALYs were discounted at an annual rate of 3.0% as per local pharmacoeconomic guideline.
RESULTS: The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for HF patients with EF>40% was RM 40,454 per QALY gained. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of RM 47,439/QALY gained, empagliflozin was cost-effective in 57% of replications. The model outcomes were sensitive to inputs related to the treatment effect of empagliflozin in reducing HF-related hospitalisation and cardiovascular mortality, and empagliflozin cost. For the overall HF population, the ICER was RM 29,463/QALY gained.
CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that empagliflozin is a cost-effective treatment option for the Malaysian HF population, including those with EF>40%. As such, the intervention warrants consideration by the Malaysian healthcare provider to mitigate the burden of HF and address the unmet needs of the EF>40% population.
METHODS: Five databases were searched. Studies with patients of any age with acute asthma exacerbations and at least one clinical outcome measure were included. Studies on intubated patients and outpatients were excluded. Two independent reviewers screened abstracts and then full texts for eligibility.
RESULTS: 1242 records were identified and 11 studies were included in the review. Three out of five studies found significant differences in capnography measures between patients eventually admitted and those discharged from the emergency department. Patients with lower initial EtCO2 were more likely to require hospital admission. Other components of the capnography waveform were associated with disposition, including a larger alpha angle and a lower ratio between phase III duration and respiratory rate being associated with hospital admission. Seven studies examined correlations between capnography measures and other markers of airway obstruction and weak or absent correlations were generally found. Three studies reported significant change in capnography measures after treatment.
CONCLUSION: Lower EtCO2 may predict poorer outcome in acute asthma exacerbations. Other measures taken from the capnography waveform appear to be useful indicators of severity. Addressing patient selection issues and conducting prognostic accuracy studies of EtCO2 with clinical endpoints may provide meaningful evidence for clinical practice.