METHODS: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
FINDINGS: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.
INTERPRETATION: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
METHODS: Prior to the current effort, the burden of PAH was included in GBD as a non-specific contributor to "other cardiovascular and circulatory disease" burden. In this study, PAH was distinguished as its own cause of death and disability in GBD, producing comparable and consistent estimates of PAH burden. We used epidemiological and vital registry data to estimate the non-fatal and fatal burden of PAH in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021 using standard GBD modelling approaches. We specifically focused on PAH (group 1 pulmonary hypertension), and did not include pulmonary hypertension groups 2-5.
FINDINGS: In 2021, there were an estimated 192 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155 000-236 000) prevalent cases of PAH globally. Of these, 119 000 (95 900-146 000) were in females (62%) and 73 100 (58 900-89 600) in males (38%). The age-standardised prevalence was 2·28 cases per 100 000 population (95% UI 1·85-2·80). Prevalence increased with age such that the highest prevalence was among individuals aged 75-79 years. In 2021, there were 22 000 deaths (18 200-25 400) attributed to PAH globally, with an age-standardised mortality rate of 0·27 deaths from PAH per 100 000 population (0·23-0·32). The burden of disease appears to be improving over time (38·2% improvement in age-standardised years of life lost [YLLs] in 2021 relative to 1990). YLLs attributed to PAH were similar to estimates for conditions such as chronic myeloid leukaemia, multiple sclerosis, and Crohn's disease.
INTERPRETATION: PAH is a rare but fatal disease that accounts for a considerable health-associated burden worldwide. PAH is disproportionally diagnosed among females and older adults.
FUNDING: Cardiovascular Medical Research and Education Fund and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
AIMS: The aim of this study was to evaluate the capacity of FFR-CT and CCTA to rule out significant lesions in high-risk NSTE-ACS patients, using ICA with invasive FFR as the gold standard.
METHODS: High-risk NSTE-ACS patients admitted to 4 European centres were enrolled in this single-arm, prospective core lab-adjudicated study. Patients underwent CCTA with FFR-CT analysis, followed by ICA with invasive FFR.
RESULTS: Out of the 250 initially planned NSTE-ACS patients, 168 were included, of whom 151 (92%) had sufficient CCTA image quality to undergo CCTA and FFR-CT analysis. The median high-sensitivity troponin T level at 1 hour post-hospitalisation was 5.3 (interquartile range: 1.8-18.6) times the upper reference limit. At the patient level, the diagnostic performance of FFR-CT was numerically higher as compared to CCTA though not statistically significant (sensitivity: 94% vs 93%, specificity: 63% vs 54%, positive predictive value: 83% vs 79%, negative predictive value: 85% vs 80% and accuracy: 83% vs 79%; p=0.58), suggesting an enhanced capability to avoid unnecessary ICA. At the lesion level, the ability of FFR-CT to detect significant lesions was significantly better than that of CCTA (receiver operating characteristic curves: 0.84 vs 0.65 respectively; p<0.01).
CONCLUSIONS: In patients with high-risk NSTE-ACS, FFR-CT offers better diagnostic accuracy - though not statistically significant - and a higher ability to rule out haemodynamically significant stenoses as compared to CCTA. This indicates that FFR-CT can reduce unnecessary invasive procedures by more accurately identifying patients requiring further intervention.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: During the period from 16 to 21 March 2007, outbreak investigations and active case finding were carried out among residents and nursing staff at the welfare home. Interviews and medical notes review were conducted to obtain epidemiological and clinical data. Hospitalised patients were tested for respiratory pathogens. Further genetic studies were also carried out on positive respiratory samples.
RESULTS: The overall clinical attack rate was 9.4% (17/180) in residents and 6.7% (2/30) in staff. All infected residents and staff had received influenza immunisation. Fifteen residents were hospitalised, with 2 developing severe complications. Genetic sequencing revealed that the outbreak strain had an 8.2% amino acid difference from B/Malaysia/2506/2004, the 2006 southern hemisphere influenza vaccine strain, which the residents and staff had earlier received.
CONCLUSIONS: A mismatch between the vaccine and circulating influenza virus strains can result in an outbreak in a highly immunised LTCF resident population. Active surveillance for acute respiratory illness in LTCFs could be implemented for rapid detection of antigenic drift. Enhanced infection control and other preventive measures can then be deployed in a timely manner to mitigate the effect of any outbreaks.
METHODS: This study included 1740 males (1146 Chinese, 327 Malays and 267 Asian Indians) and 1950 females (1329 Chinese, 360 Malays and 261 Asian Indians) with complete data on anthropometric indices, fasting lipids, smoking status, alcohol consumption, exercise frequency and genotype at the APOE locus.
RESULTS: Malays and Asian Indians were more obese compared with the Chinese. Smoking was uncommon in all females but Malay males had significantly higher prevalence of smokers. Malays had the highest LDL-C whilst Indians had the lowest HDL-C, The epsilon 3 allele was the most frequent allele in all three ethnic groups. Malays had the highest frequency of epsilon 4 (0.180 and 0.152) compared with Chinese (0.085 and 0.087) and Indians (0.108 and 0.075) in males and females, respectively. The epsilon 2 allele was the least common in Asian Indians. Total cholesterol (TC) and LDL-C was highest in epsilon 4 carriers and lowest in epsilon 2 carriers. The reverse was seen in HDL-C with the highest levels seen in epsilon 2 subjects. The association between ethnic group and HDL-C differed according to APOE genotype and gender. Asian Indians had the lowest HDL-C for each APOE genotype except in Asian Indian males with epsilon 2, where HDL-C concentrations were intermediate between Chinese and Malays.
CONCLUSION: Ethnic differences in lipid profile could be explained in part by the higher prevalence of epsilon 4 in the Malays. Ethnicity may influence the association between APOE genotypes and HDL-C. APOE genotype showed no correlation with HDL-C in Malay males whereas the association in Asian Indians was particularly marked. Further studies of interactions between genes and environmental factors will contribute to the understanding of differences of coronary risk amongst ethnic groups.
METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age-sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence, and prevalence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021). We aimed to analyse all available data sources, including data on the provision of HIV programmes reported to UNAIDS, published literature on mortality among people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified by a systematic review, household surveys, sentinel surveillance antenatal care clinic data, vital registration data, and country-level case report data. We calibrated a mechanistic simulation of HIV infection and natural history to available data to estimate HIV burden from 1990 to 2021 and generated forecasts to 2050 through projection of all simulation inputs into the future. Historical outcomes (1990-2021) were simulated at the 1000-draw level to support propagation of uncertainty and reporting of uncertainty intervals (UIs). Our approach to forecasting utilised the transmission rate as the basis for projection, along with new rate-of-change projections of ART coverage. Additionally, we introduced two new metrics to our reporting: prevalence of unsuppressed viraemia (PUV), which represents the proportion of the population without a suppressed level of HIV (viral load <1000 copies per mL), and period lifetime probability of HIV acquisition, which quantifies the hypothetical probability of acquiring HIV for a synthetic cohort, a simulated population that is aged from birth to death through the set of age-specific incidence rates of a given time period.
FINDINGS: Global new HIV infections decreased by 21·9% (95% UI 13·1-28·8) between 2010 and 2021, from 2·11 million (2·02-2·25) in 2010 to 1·65 million (1·48-1·82) in 2021. HIV-related deaths decreased by 39·7% (33·7-44·5), from 1·19 million (1·07-1·37) in 2010 to 718 000 (669 000-785 000) in 2021. The largest declines in both HIV incidence and mortality were in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, super-regions including central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and north Africa and the Middle East experienced increasing HIV incidence and mortality rates. The number of people living with HIV reached 40·0 million (38·0-42·4) in 2021, an increase from 29·5 million (28·1-31·0) in 2010. The lifetime probability of HIV acquisition remains highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, where it declined from its 1995 peak of 21·8% (20·1-24·2) to 8·7% (7·5-10·7) in 2021. Four of the seven GBD super-regions had a lifetime probability of less than 1% in 2021. In 2021, sub-Saharan Africa had the highest PUV of 999·9 (857·4-1154·2) per 100 000 population, but this was a 64·5% (58·8-69·4) reduction in PUV from 2003 to 2021. In the same period, PUV increased in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia by 116·1% (8·0-218·2). Our forecasts predict a continued global decline in HIV incidence and mortality, with the number of people living with HIV peaking at 44·4 million (40·7-49·8) by 2039, followed by a gradual decrease. In 2025, we projected 1·43 million (1·29-1·59) new HIV infections and 615 000 (567 000-680 000) HIV-related deaths, suggesting that the interim 2025 targets for reducing these figures are unlikely to be achieved. Furthermore, our forecasted results indicate that few countries will meet the 2030 target for reducing HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths by 90% from 2010 levels.
INTERPRETATION: Our forecasts indicate that continuation of current levels of HIV control are not likely to attain ambitious incidence and mortality reduction targets by 2030, and more than 40 million people globally will continue to require lifelong ART for decades into the future. The global community will need to show sustained and substantive efforts to make the progress needed to reach and sustain the end of AIDS as a public threat.
FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
METHODS: This study belongs to a part of an ongoing Singapore/Malaysia cross-sectional genetics and epidemiological study (SMCSGES). We assessed the associations of FOXO1 transcript expression levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) with AR phenotype, total nasal symptom score (TNSS), and SNP genotype in a sub-cohort of n = 658 individuals from the SMCSGES population. Associations of FOXO1 SNPs with AR were assessed in a cohort of n = 5,072 individuals from the SMCSGES population. In vitro promoter luciferase assay was used to evaluate the effect of AR-associated SNPs on FOXO1 promoter activity.
RESULTS: FOXO1 transcript expression in PBMC was significantly associated with the risk of AR (p < 0.05) and TNSS among AR patients (p < 0.0001). We identified a significant association between tag-SNPs rs9549246 and FOXO1 transcript expression in PBMC from the SMCSGES sub-cohort and the multiethnic eQTLGen consortium (false discovery rate-adjusted p < 0.05). The minor allele "A" of tag-SNP rs9549246 was significantly associated with a higher risk of AR (p = 0.04422, odds ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval = 1.01-1.45) in the SMCSGES genotyping cohort (n = 5,072). In vitro luciferase assay showed the minor allele "A" of rs35594717 (tagged by rs9549246) was significantly associated with a higher FOXO1 promoter activity (p < 0.05).
CONCLUSION: FOXO1 transcript expression in PBMC has a strong association with the risk and symptom severity of AR. Genetic variants tagged by rs9549246 were shown to affect the expression of FOXO1 and contribute to the development of AR in the SMCSGES population.
BACKGROUND: Drug eluting stent (DES) implantation is the treatment of choice for coronary artery disease (CAD) leaving only marginal indications for the use of bare metal stents (BMS). However, selected treatment populations with DES contraindications such as patients who cannot sustain 6-12 months of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) remain candidates for BMS implantations.
METHODS: Thin strut bare metal stenting in a priori defined subgroups were investigated in a non-randomized, international, multicenter «all comers» observational study. Primary endpoint was the 9-month TLR rate whereas secondary endpoints included the 9-month MACE and procedural success rates.
RESULTS: A total of 783 patients of whom 98 patients had AF underwent BMS implantation. Patient age was 70.4 ± 12.8 years. Cardiovascular risk factors in the overall population were male gender (78.2%, 612/783), diabetes (25.2%, 197/783), hypertension (64.1%, 502/783), cardiogenic shock (4.9%, 38/783) and end stage renal disease (4.9%, 38/783). In-hospital MACE was 4.1% (30/783) in the overall population. The 9-month TLR rate was 4.5% (29/645) in the non-AF group and 3.3% (3/90) in the AF group (P = 0.613). At 9 months, the MACE rate in the AF-group and non-AF group was not significantly different either (10.7%, 69/645 vs. 6.7%, 6/90; P = 0.237). Accumulated stroke rates were 0.3% (2/645) in the non-AF subgroup at baseline and 1.1% (1/90) in the AF subgroup (P = 0.264).
CONCLUSION: Bare metal stenting in AF patients delivered acceptably low TLR and MACE rates while having the benefit of a significantly shorter DAPT duration in a DES dominated clinical practice. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
METHODS: A discovery cohort of Malaysian Chinese descent (NPC patients, n = 140; Healthy controls, n = 256) were genotyped using Illumina® HumanOmniExpress BeadChip. PennCNV and cnvPartition calling algorithms were applied for CNV calling. Taqman CNV assays and digital PCR were used to validate CNV calls and replicate candidate copy number variant region (CNVR) associations in a follow-up Malaysian Chinese (NPC cases, n = 465; and Healthy controls, n = 677) and Malay cohort (NPC cases, n = 114; Healthy controls, n = 124).
RESULTS: Six putative CNVRs overlapping GRM5, MICA/HCP5/HCG26, LILRB3/LILRA6, DPY19L2, RNase3/RNase2 and GOLPH3 genes were jointly identified by PennCNV and cnvPartition. CNVs overlapping GRM5 and MICA/HCP5/HCG26 were subjected to further validation by Taqman CNV assays and digital PCR. Combined analysis in Malaysian Chinese cohort revealed a strong association at CNVR on chromosome 11q14.3 (Pcombined = 1.54x10-5; odds ratio (OR) = 7.27; 95% CI = 2.96-17.88) overlapping GRM5 and a suggestive association at CNVR on chromosome 6p21.3 (Pcombined = 1.29x10-3; OR = 4.21; 95% CI = 1.75-10.11) overlapping MICA/HCP5/HCG26 genes.
CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrated the association of CNVs towards NPC susceptibility, implicating a possible role of CNVs in NPC development.