METHODS: We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide.
FINDINGS: Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vaccination coverage in 2016 was estimated to be substantially less than the recommended threshold to prevent outbreaks. Overall, we estimated that vaccination coverage levels achieved by 2016 avert between 94 336 and 118 500 cases of yellow fever annually within risk zones, on the basis of conservative and optimistic vaccination scenarios. The areas outside at-risk regions with predicted high receptivity to yellow fever transmission (eg, parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) were less extensive than the distribution of the main urban vector, A aegypti, with low receptivity to yellow fever transmission in southern China, where A aegypti is known to occur.
INTERPRETATION: Our results provide the evidence base for targeting vaccination campaigns within risk zones, as well as emphasising their high effectiveness. Our study highlights areas where public health authorities should be most vigilant for potential spread or importation events.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Methods: Patients were diagnosed with CHIK fever by a combination of virus isolation, viral RNA amplification, IgM antibody-, IgG antibody-, and/or neutralizing antibody detection. The whole-genome sequences of the CHIKV isolates were determined by next-generation sequencing.
Results: Prior to 2014, the source countries of the imported CHIK fever cases were limited to South and Southeast Asian countries. After 2014, when outbreaks occurred in the Pacific and Caribbean Islands and Latin American countries, there was an increase in the number of imported cases from these regions. A phylogenetic analysis of 14 isolates revealed that four isolates recovered from three patients who returned from Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Angola, belonged to the East/Central/South African genotype, while 10 isolates from 10 patients who returned from Indonesia, the Philippines, Tonga, the Commonwealth of Dominica, Colombia and Cuba, belonged to the Asian genotype.
Conclusion: Through the phylogenetic analysis of the isolates, we could predict the situations of the CHIK fever epidemics in Indonesia, Angola and Cuba. Although Japan has not yet experienced an autochthonous outbreak of CHIK fever, the possibility of the future introduction of CHIKV through an imported case and subsequent local transmission should be considered, especially during the mosquito-active season. The monitoring and reporting of imported cases will be useful to understand the situation of the global epidemic, to increase awareness of and facilitate the diagnosis of CHIK fever, and to identify a future CHIK fever outbreak in Japan.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective review of children diagnosed with enteric fever in a tertiary paediatric hospital in Singapore was conducted from January 2006 to January 2012. Patients with positive blood cultures for Salmonella typhi or paratyphi were identified from the microbiology laboratory information system. Data was extracted from their case records.
RESULTS: Of 50 enteric fever cases, 86% were due to Salmonella typhi, with 16.3% being multidrug resistant (MDR) strains. Sixty-two percent of S. typhi isolates were of decreased ciprofloxacin susceptibility (DCS). Five cases were both MDR and DCS. The remaining 14% were Salmonella paratyphi A. There were only 3 indigenous cases. Ninety-four percent had travelled to typhoid-endemic countries, 70.2% to the Indian subcontinent and the rest to Indonesia and Malaysia. All patients infected with MDR strains had travelled to the Indian subcontinent. Anaemia was a significant finding in children with typhoid, as compared to paratyphoid fever (P = 0.04). Although all children were previously well, 14% suffered severe complications including shock, pericardial effusion and enterocolitis. None had typhoid vaccination prior to their travel to developing countries.
CONCLUSION: Enteric fever is largely an imported disease in Singapore and has contributed to significant morbidity in children. The use of typhoid vaccine, as well as education on food and water hygiene to children travelling to developing countries, needs to be emphasised.