METHODS: Respondents were sampled with quotas for urbanicity, gender, age, and ethnicity to ensure representativeness of the Malaysian population. The study was conducted using a standardized protocol involving the EuroQol Valuation Technology (EQ-VT) computer-assisted interview system. Respondents were administered ten composite time trade-off (C-TTO) tasks and seven discrete choice experiment (DCE) tasks. Both linear main effects and constrained non-linear regression models of C-TTO-only data and hybrid models combining C-TTO and DCE data were explored to determine an efficient and informative model for value set prediction.
RESULTS: Data from 1125 respondents representative of the Malaysian population were included in the analysis. Logical consistency was present in all models tested. Using cross-validation, eight-parameter models for C-TTO only and C-TTO + DCE hybrid data displayed greater out-of-sample predictive accuracy than their 20-parameter, main-effect counterparts. The hybrid eight-parameter model was chosen to represent the Malaysian value set, as it displayed greater out-of-sample predictive accuracy over C-TTO data than the C-TTO-only model, and produced more precise estimates. The estimated value set ranged from - 0.442 to 1.
CONCLUSIONS: The constrained eight-parameter hybrid model demonstrated the best potential in representing the Malaysian value set. The presence of the Malaysian EQ-5D-5L value set will facilitate its application in research and health technology assessment activities.
OBJECTIVES: Our study used data from the most recent network meta-analysis (NMA) and local parameters to assess the cost effectiveness of non-statin agents in statin-treated patients with a history of CVD.
METHODS: A published Markov model was adopted to investigate lifetime outcomes: (1) number of recurrent CVD events prevented, (2) quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, (3) costs and (4) incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors (PCSK9i) and ezetimibe added to statin therapy. Event rates and effectiveness inputs were obtained from the NMA. Cost and utility data were gathered from published studies conducted in Thailand. A series of sensitivity analyses were performed.
RESULTS: Patients receiving PCSK9i and ezetimibe experienced fewer recurrent CVD events (number needed to treat [NNT] 17 and 30) and more QALYs (0.168 and 0.096 QALYs gained per person). However, under the societal perspective and at current acquisition costs in 2018, ICERs of both agents were $US1,223,995 and 27,361 per QALY gained, respectively. Based on threshold analyses, the costs need to be reduced by 97 and 85%, respectively, for PCSK9i and ezetimibe to be cost-effective.
CONCLUSIONS: Despite the proven effectiveness of PCSK9i and ezetimibe, the costs of these agents need to reduce to a much greater extent than in HICs to be cost-effective in Thailand.
OBJECTIVE: This systematic review aims to provide a critical summary of EEs of PCVs and identify key drivers of EE findings in LMICs.
METHODS: We searched Scopus, ISI Web of Science, PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Central from their inception to 30 September 2015 and limited the search to LMICs. The search was undertaken using the search strings 'pneumococc* AND conjugat* AND (vaccin* OR immun*)' AND 'economic OR cost-effectiveness OR cost-benefit OR cost-utility OR cost-effectiveness OR cost-benefit OR cost-utility' in the abstract, title or keyword fields. To be included, each study had to be a full EE of a PCV and conducted for an LMIC. Studies were extracted and reviewed by two authors. The review involved standard extraction of the study overview or the characteristics of the study, key drivers or parameters of the EE, assumptions behind the analyses and major areas of uncertainty.
RESULTS: Out of 134 records identified, 22 articles were included. Seven studies used a Markov model for analysis, while 15 studies used a decision-tree analytic model. Eighteen studies performed a cost-utility analysis (CUA), with disability-adjusted life-years, quality-adjusted life-years or life-years gained as a measure of health outcome, while four studies focused only on cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Both CEA and CUA findings were provided by eight studies. Herd effects and serotype replacement were considered in 10 and 13 studies, respectively. The current evidence shows that both the 10-valent and 13-valent PCVs are probably cost effective in comparison with the 7-valent PCV or no vaccination. The most influential parameters were vaccine efficacy and coverage (in 16 of 22 studies), vaccine price (in 13 of 22 studies), disease incidence (in 11 of 22 studies), mortality from IPD and pneumonia (in 8 of 22 studies) and herd effects (in 4 of 22 studies). The findings were found to be supportive of the products owned by the manufacturers.
CONCLUSION: Our review demonstrated that an infant PCV programme was a cost-effective intervention in most LMICs (in 20 of 22 studies included). The results were sensitive to vaccine efficacy, price, burden of disease and sponsorship. Decision makers should consider EE findings and affordability before adoption of PCVs.
OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to systematically review the published cost-effectiveness studies of insulin analogues for the treatment of patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).
METHODS: We searched major databases and health technology assessment agency reports for economic evaluation studies published up until 30 September 2015. Two reviewers performed data extraction and assessed the quality of the data using the CHEERS (Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards) guidelines.
RESULTS: Seven of the included studies assessed short-acting insulin analogues, 12 assessed biphasic insulin analogues, 30 assessed long-acting insulin analogues and one assessed a combination of short- and long-acting insulin analogues. Only 17 studies involved patients with T1DM, all were modelling studies and 12 were conducted in Canada. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for short-acting insulin analogues ranged from dominant to $US435,913 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, the ICERs for biphasic insulin analogues ranged from dominant to $US57,636 per QALY gained and the ICERs for long-acting insulin analogues ranged from dominant to $US599,863 per QALY gained. A total of 15 studies met all the CHEERS guidelines reporting quality criteria. Only 26 % of the studies assessed heterogeneity in their analyses.
CONCLUSION: Current evidence indicates that insulin analogues are cost effective for T1DM; however, evidence for their use in T2DM is not convincing. Additional evidence regarding compliance and efficacy is required to support the broader use of long-acting and biphasic insulin analogues in T2DM. The value of insulin analogues depends strongly on reductions in hypoglycaemia event rates and its efficacy in lowering glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c).
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of second-line endocrine therapies for the treatment of postmenopausal women with HR + and HER2 - mBC.
METHODS: A Markov model was developed to analyze the cost-effectiveness of the therapies over a 15-year time horizon from a public healthcare payer's perspective. The efficacy and utility parameters were determined via a systematic search of the literature. Direct medical care costs were used. A discount rate of 2% was applied for costs and outcomes. Subgroup analysis was performed for non-visceral metastasis. A series of sensitivity analyses, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and threshold analysis were performed.
RESULTS: Base-case analyses estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of 3 million and 6 million Japanese yen (JPY)/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained for TOR and FUL 500 mg relative to EXE, respectively. FUL 250 mg and EXE + EVE were dominated. The overall survival (OS) highly influenced the ICER. With a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 5 million JPY/QALY, the probability of TOR being cost-effective was the highest. Subgroup analysis in non-visceral metastasis revealed 0.4 and 10% reduction in ICER from the base-case results of FUL5 500 mg versus EXE and TOR versus EXE, respectively, while threshold analysis indicated EVE and FUL prices should be reduced 73 and 30%, respectively.
CONCLUSION: As a second-line therapy for postmenopausal women with HR +/HER2 - mBC, TOR may be cost-effective relative to other alternatives and seems to be the most favorable choice, based on a WTP threshold of 5 million JPY/QALY. FUL 250 mg is expected to be as costly and effective as EXE. The cost-effectiveness of EXE + EVE and FUL 500 mg could be improved by a large price reduction. However, the results are highly sensitive to the hazard ratio of OS. Policy makers should carefully interpret and utilize these findings.
METHODS: A cost-utility analysis using a lifetime Markov model was conducted among Thai patients with NAFLD, from a societal perspective. Pioglitazone, vitamin E, a weight reduction program, and usual care were investigated, with the outcomes of interest being the number of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.
RESULTS: When compared with usual care, a weight reduction program can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 13.91% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.97, 20.59) and 2.12% (95% CrI 0.43, 4.56), respectively; pioglitazone can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 9.30% (95% CrI -2.52, 15.24) and 1.42% (95% CrI -0.18, 3.74), respectively; and vitamin E can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 7.32% (95% CrI -4.64, 15.56) and 1.12% (95% CrI -0.81, 3.44), respectively. Estimated incremental life expectancy and incremental QALYs for all treatment options compared with usual care were approximately 0.06 years and 0.07 QALYs, respectively. The lifetime costs of both a weight reduction program and pioglitazone were less than usual care, while vitamin E was $3050 (95% CrI 2354, 3650). The weight reduction program dominated all other treatment options. The probability of being cost-effective in Thailand's willingness-to-pay threshold ($4546/QALY gained) was 76% for the weight reduction program, 22% for pioglitazone, 2% for usual care, and 0% for vitamin E.
CONCLUSIONS: A weight reduction program can prevent cirrhosis and HCC occurrences, and dominates all other treatment options. Pioglitazone and vitamin E demonstrated a trend towards decreasing the number of cirrhosis and HCC cases.
METHODS: Blood samples from 511 febrile patients were collected and a partial region of the 18 s ribosomal RNA (18 s rRNA) gene was amplified using nested PCR. From the 86 positive blood samples, 13 Plasmodium falciparum and 4 Plasmodium vivax were selected and underwent cloning and, subsequently, sequencing and the sequences were subjected to phylogenetic analysis using the neighbor-joining and maximum parsimony methods.
RESULTS: Malaria was detected by PCR in 86 samples (16.8%). The majority of the single infections were caused by P. falciparum (80.3%), followed by P. vivax (5.8%). Mixed infection rates of P. falciparum + P. vivax and P. falciparum + P. malariae were 11.6% and 2.3%, respectively. All P. falciparum isolates were grouped with the strain 3D7, while P. vivax isolates were grouped with the strain Salvador1. Phylogenetic trees based on 18 s rRNA placed the P. falciparum isolates into three sub-clusters and P. vivax into one cluster. Sequence alignment analysis showed 5-14.8% SNP in the partial sequences of the 18 s rRNA of P. falciparum.
CONCLUSIONS: Although P. falciparum is predominant, P. vivax, P. malariae and mixed infections are more prevalent than has been revealed by microscopy. This overlooked distribution should be considered by malaria control strategy makers. The genetic polymorphisms warrant further investigation.
METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to simulate the impact of S. suis infection and its major complications: death, meningitis and infective endocarditis among Thai people in 2019 with starting age of 51 years. Transition probabilities, and inputs pertaining to costs, utilities and productivity impairment associated with long-term complications were derived from published sources. A lifetime time horizon with follow-up until death or age 100 years was adopted. The simulation was repeated assuming that the cohort had not been infected with S.suis. The differences between the two set of model outputs in years of life, QALYs, and PALYs lived reflected the impact of S.suis infection. An annual discount rate of 3% was applied to both costs and outcomes. One-way sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulation modeling technique using 10,000 iterations were performed to assess the impact of uncertainty in the model.
KEY RESULTS: This cohort incurred 769 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 695 to 841) years of life lost (14% of predicted years of life lived if infection had not occurred), 826 (95% UI: 588 to 1,098) QALYs lost (21%) and 793 (95%UI: 717 to 867) PALYs (15%) lost. These equated to an average of 2.46 years of life, 2.64 QALYs and 2.54 PALYs lost per person. The loss in PALYs was associated with a loss of 346 (95% UI: 240 to 461) million Thai baht (US$11.3 million) in GDP, which equated to 1.1 million Thai baht (US$ 36,033) lost per person.
CONCLUSIONS: S.suis infection imposes a significant economic burden both in terms of health and productivity. Further research to investigate the effectiveness of public health awareness programs and disease control interventions should be mandated to provide a clearer picture for decision making in public health strategies and resource allocations.
METHODS: We estimated global and regional temporal trends in the burden of cancer attributable to high BMI, and the contributions of various cancer types using the framework of the Global Burden of Disease Study.
RESULTS: From 2010 to 2019, there was a 35 % increase in deaths and a 34 % increase in disability-adjusted life-years from cancers attributable to high BMI. The age-standardized death rates for cancer attributable to high BMI increased over the study period (annual percentage change [APC] +0.48 %, 95 % CI 0.22 to 0.74 %). The greatest number of deaths from cancer attributable to high BMI occurred in Europe, but the fastest-growing age-standardized death rates and disability-adjusted life-years occurred in Southeast Asia. Liver cancer was the fastest-growing cause of cancer mortality (APC: 1.37 %, 95 % CI 1.25 to 1.49 %) attributable to high BMI.
CONCLUSION: The global burden of cancer-related deaths attributable to high BMI has increased substantially from 2010 to 2019. The greatest increase in age-standardized death rates occurred in Southeast Asia, and liver cancer is the fastest-growing cause of cancer mortality attributable to high BMI. Urgent and sustained measures are required at a global and regional level to reverse these trends and slow the growing burden of cancer attributed to high BMI.
METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analysis used decision tree and Markov models to estimate lifetime costs and health benefits from societal perspective, based on a cohort of 509 metabolic syndrome patients in Thailand. Data were obtained from published literatures and Thai database. Results were reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in 2014 US dollars (USD) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained with discount rate of 3%. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of parameter uncertainty on the results.
RESULTS: The ICER of ultrasonography screening of 50-year-old metabolic syndrome patients with intensive weight reduction program was 958 USD/QALY gained when compared with no screening. The probability of being cost-effective was 67% using willingness-to-pay threshold in Thailand (4848 USD/QALY gained). Screening before 45 years was cost saving while screening at 45 to 64 years was cost-effective.
CONCLUSIONS: For patients with metabolic syndromes, ultrasonography screening for NAFLD with intensive weight reduction program is a cost-effective program in Thailand. Study can be used as part of evidence-informed decision making.
TRANSLATIONAL IMPACTS: Findings could contribute to changes of NAFLD diagnosis practice in settings where economic evidence is used as part of decision-making process. Furthermore, study design, model structure, and input parameters could also be used for future research addressing similar questions.
METHODS: We estimated mortality using natural history models for acute hepatitis infections and GBD's cause-of-death ensemble model for cirrhosis and liver cancer. We used meta-regression to estimate total cirrhosis and total liver cancer prevalence, as well as the proportion of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to each cause. We then estimated cause-specific prevalence as the product of the total prevalence and the proportion attributable to a specific cause. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs).
FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2013, global viral hepatitis deaths increased from 0·89 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·86-0·94) to 1·45 million (1·38-1·54); YLLs from 31·0 million (29·6-32·6) to 41·6 million (39·1-44·7); YLDs from 0·65 million (0·45-0·89) to 0·87 million (0·61-1·18); and DALYs from 31·7 million (30·2-33·3) to 42·5 million (39·9-45·6). In 2013, viral hepatitis was the seventh (95% UI seventh to eighth) leading cause of death worldwide, compared with tenth (tenth to 12th) in 1990.
INTERPRETATION: Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Unlike most communicable diseases, the absolute burden and relative rank of viral hepatitis increased between 1990 and 2013. The enormous health loss attributable to viral hepatitis, and the availability of effective vaccines and treatments, suggests an important opportunity to improve public health.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.
FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).
INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
METHODS: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively.
FINDINGS: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%.
INTERPRETATION: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.