METHODS: We used the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (ARIMA) to forecast the number of cases in the upcoming 14 days and the Spearman correlation analysis to analyze the relationship between B.1.1.7 cases and meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, rainfall, sunshine, and wind speed.
RESULTS: The results of the study showed the fitted ARIMA models forecasted there was an increase in the daily cases in three provinces. The total cases in three provinces would increase by 36% (West Java), 13.5% (South Sumatra), and 30% (East Kalimantan) as compared with actual cases until the end of 14 days later. The temperature, rainfall and sunshine factors were the main contributors for B.1.1.7 cases with each correlation coefficients; r = -0.230; p < 0.05, r = 0.211; p < 0.05 and r = -0.418; p < 0.01, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: We recapitulated that this investigation was the first preliminary study to analyze a short-term forecast regarding COVID-19 and B.1.1.7 cases as well as to determine the associated meteorological factors that become primary contributors to the virus spread.
METHODS: Ten Japanese and ten Malaysian males with matched physical characteristics (height, body weight, and peak oxygen consumption) participated in this study. Participants performed exercise for 60 min at 55% peak oxygen uptake followed by a 30-min recovery at 32°C and 70% relative air humidity with hydration (4 times each, 3 mL per kg body weight, 37°C) or without hydration. Rectal temperature, skin temperature, heart rate, skin blood flow, and blood pressure were measured continuously. The percentage of body weight loss and total sweat loss were calculated from body weight measurements. The percentage change in plasma volume was estimated from hemoglobin concentration and hematocrit.
RESULTS: Malaysian participants had a significantly lower rectal temperature, a smaller reduction in plasma volume, and a lower heart rate in the hydrated condition than in the non-hydrated condition at the end of exercise (P <0.05), whereas Japanese participants showed no difference between the two hydration conditions. Hydration induced a greater total sweat loss in both groups (P <0.05), and the percentage of body weight loss in hydrated Malaysians was significantly less than in hydrated Japanese (P <0.05). A significant interaction between groups and hydration conditions was observed for the percentage of mean cutaneous vascular conductance during exercise relative to baseline (P <0.05).
CONCLUSIONS: The smaller reduction in plasma volume and percentage body weight loss in hydrated Malaysians indicated an advantage in body fluid regulation. This may enable Malaysians to reserve more blood for circulation and heat dissipation and thereby maintain lower rectal temperatures in a hydrated condition.