Displaying publications 61 - 80 of 193 in total

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  1. Shepard DS, Undurraga EA, Betancourt-Cravioto M, Guzmán MG, Halstead SB, Harris E, et al.
    PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2014 Nov;8(11):e3306.
    PMID: 25412506 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003306
    Dengue presents a formidable and growing global economic and disease burden, with around half the world's population estimated to be at risk of infection. There is wide variation and substantial uncertainty in current estimates of dengue disease burden and, consequently, on economic burden estimates. Dengue disease varies across time, geography and persons affected. Variations in the transmission of four different viruses and interactions among vector density and host's immune status, age, pre-existing medical conditions, all contribute to the disease's complexity. This systematic review aims to identify and examine estimates of dengue disease burden and costs, discuss major sources of uncertainty, and suggest next steps to improve estimates. Economic analysis of dengue is mainly concerned with costs of illness, particularly in estimating total episodes of symptomatic dengue. However, national dengue disease reporting systems show a great diversity in design and implementation, hindering accurate global estimates of dengue episodes and country comparisons. A combination of immediate, short-, and long-term strategies could substantially improve estimates of disease and, consequently, of economic burden of dengue. Suggestions for immediate implementation include refining analysis of currently available data to adjust reported episodes and expanding data collection in empirical studies, such as documenting the number of ambulatory visits before and after hospitalization and including breakdowns by age. Short-term recommendations include merging multiple data sources, such as cohort and surveillance data to evaluate the accuracy of reporting rates (by health sector, treatment, severity, etc.), and using covariates to extrapolate dengue incidence to locations with no or limited reporting. Long-term efforts aim at strengthening capacity to document dengue transmission using serological methods to systematically analyze and relate to epidemiologic data. As promising tools for diagnosis, vaccination, vector control, and treatment are being developed, these recommended steps should improve objective, systematic measures of dengue burden to strengthen health policy decisions.
    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  2. Shepard DS, Undurraga EA, Halasa YA
    PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2013;7(2):e2055.
    PMID: 23437406 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002055
    BACKGROUND: Dengue poses a substantial economic and disease burden in Southeast Asia (SEA). Quantifying this burden is critical to set policy priorities and disease-control strategies.

    METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimated the economic and disease burden of dengue in 12 countries in SEA: Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, East-Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam. We obtained reported cases from multiple sources--surveillance data, World Health Organization (WHO), and published studies--and adjusted for underreporting using expansion factors from previous literature. We obtained unit costs per episode through a systematic literature review, and completed missing data using linear regressions. We excluded costs such as prevention and vector control, and long-term sequelae of dengue. Over the decade of 2001-2010, we obtained an annual average of 2.9 million (m) dengue episodes and 5,906 deaths. The annual economic burden (with 95% certainty levels) was US$950m (US$610m-US$1,384m) or about US$1.65 (US$1.06-US$2.41) per capita. The annual number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on the original 1994 definition, was 214,000 (120,000-299,000), which is equivalent to 372 (210-520) DALYs per million inhabitants.

    CONCLUSION: Dengue poses a substantial economic and disease burden in SEA with a DALY burden per million inhabitants in the region. This burden is higher than that of 17 other conditions, including Japanese encephalitis, upper respiratory infections, and hepatitis B.

    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  3. Suaya JA, Shepard DS, Siqueira JB, Martelli CT, Lum LC, Tan LH, et al.
    Am J Trop Med Hyg, 2009 May;80(5):846-55.
    PMID: 19407136
    Despite the growing worldwide burden of dengue fever, the global economic impact of dengue illness is poorly documented. Using a common protocol, we present the first multicountry estimates of the direct and indirect costs of dengue cases in eight American and Asian countries. We conducted prospective studies of the cost of dengue in five countries in the Americas (Brazil, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, and Venezuela) and three countries in Asia (Cambodia, Malaysia, and Thailand). All studies followed the same core protocol with interviews and medical record reviews. The study populations were patients treated in ambulatory and hospital settings with a clinical diagnosis of dengue. Most studies were performed in 2005. Costs are in 2005 international dollars (I$). We studied 1,695 patients (48% pediatric and 52% adult); none died. The average illness lasted 11.9 days for ambulatory patients and 11.0 days for hospitalized patients. Among hospitalized patients, students lost 5.6 days of school, whereas those working lost 9.9 work days per average dengue episode. Overall mean costs were I$514 and I$1,394 for an ambulatory and hospitalized case, respectively. With an annual average of 574,000 cases reported, the aggregate annual economic cost of dengue for the eight study countries is at least I$587 million. Preliminary adjustment for under-reporting could raise this total to $1.8 billion, and incorporating costs of dengue surveillance and vector control would raise the amount further. Dengue imposes substantial costs on both the health sector and the overall economy.
    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  4. Saifur RG, Dieng H, Hassan AA, Salmah MR, Satho T, Miake F, et al.
    PLoS One, 2012;7(2):e30919.
    PMID: 22363516 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0030919
    BACKGROUND: The domestic dengue vector Aedes aegypti mosquitoes breed in indoor containers. However, in northern peninsular Malaysia, they show equal preference for breeding in both indoor and outdoor habitats. To evaluate the epidemiological implications of this peridomestic adaptation, we examined whether Ae. aegypti exhibits decreased survival, gonotrophic activity, and fecundity due to lack of host availability and the changing breeding behavior.

    METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This yearlong field surveillance identified Ae. aegypti breeding in outdoor containers on an enormous scale. Through a sequence of experiments incorporating outdoors and indoors adapting as well as adapted populations, we observed that indoors provided better environment for the survival of Ae. aegypti and the observed death patterns could be explained on the basis of a difference in body size. The duration of gonotrophic period was much shorter in large-bodied females. Fecundity tended to be greater in indoor acclimated females. We also found increased tendency to multiple feeding in outdoors adapted females, which were smaller in size compared to their outdoors breeding counterparts.

    CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The data presented here suggest that acclimatization of Ae. aegypti to the outdoor environment may not decrease its lifespan or gonotrophic activity but rather increase breeding opportunities (increased number of discarded containers outdoors), the rate of larval development, but small body sizes at emergence. Size is likely to be correlated with disease transmission. In general, small size in Aedes females will favor increased blood-feeding frequency resulting in higher population sizes and disease occurrence.

    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  5. Young KI, Mundis S, Widen SG, Wood TG, Tesh RB, Cardosa J, et al.
    Parasit Vectors, 2017 Aug 31;10(1):406.
    PMID: 28859676 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-017-2341-z
    BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne dengue virus (DENV) is maintained in a sylvatic, enzootic cycle of transmission between canopy-dwelling non-human primates and Aedes mosquitoes in Borneo. Sylvatic DENV can spill over into humans living in proximity to forest foci of transmission, in some cases resulting in severe dengue disease. The most likely vectors of such spillover (bridge vectors) in Borneo are Ae. albopictus and Ae. niveus. Borneo is currently experiencing extensive forest clearance. To gauge the effect of this change in forest cover on the likelihood of sylvatic DENV spillover, it is first necessary to characterize the distribution of bridge vectors in different land cover types. In the current study, we hypothesized that Ae. niveus and Ae. albopictus would show significantly different distributions in different land cover types; specifically, we predicted that Ae. niveus would be most abundant in forests whereas Ae. albopictus would have a more even distribution in the landscape.

    RESULTS: Mosquitoes were collected from a total of 15 sites using gravid traps and a backpack aspirator around Kampong Puruh Karu, Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo, where sylvatic DENV spillover has been documented. A total of 2447 mosquitoes comprising 10 genera and 4 species of Aedes, were collected over the three years, 2013, 2014 and 2016, in the three major land cover types in the area, homestead, agriculture and forest. Mosquitoes were identified morphologically, pooled by species and gender, homogenized, and subject to DNA barcoding of each Aedes species and to arbovirus screening. As predicted, Ae. niveus was found almost exclusively in forests whereas Ae. albopictus was collected in all land cover types. Aedes albopictus was significantly (P = 0.04) more abundant in agricultural fields than forests. Sylvatic DENV was not detected in any Aedes mosquito pools, however genomes of 14 viruses were detected using next generation sequencing.

    CONCLUSIONS: Land cover type affects the abundance and distribution of the most likely bridge vectors of sylvatic DENV in Malaysia Borneo. Conversion of forests to agriculture will likely decrease the range and abundance of Ae. niveus but enhance the abundance of Ae. albopictus.

    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology; Severe Dengue/epidemiology
  6. Salim NAM, Wah YB, Reeves C, Smith M, Yaacob WFW, Mudin RN, et al.
    Sci Rep, 2021 01 13;11(1):939.
    PMID: 33441678 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-79193-2
    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that affects nearly 3.9 billion people globally. Dengue remains endemic in Malaysia since its outbreak in the 1980's, with its highest concentration of cases in the state of Selangor. Predictors of dengue fever outbreaks could provide timely information for health officials to implement preventative actions. In this study, five districts in Selangor, Malaysia, that demonstrated the highest incidence of dengue fever from 2013 to 2017 were evaluated for the best machine learning model to predict Dengue outbreaks. Climate variables such as temperature, wind speed, humidity and rainfall were used in each model. Based on results, the SVM (linear kernel) exhibited the best prediction performance (Accuracy = 70%, Sensitivity = 14%, Specificity = 95%, Precision = 56%). However, the sensitivity for SVM (linear) for the testing sample increased up to 63.54% compared to 14.4% for imbalanced data (original data). The week-of-the-year was the most important predictor in the SVM model. This study exemplifies that machine learning has respectable potential for the prediction of dengue outbreaks. Future research should consider boosting, or using, nature inspired algorithms to develop a dengue prediction model.
    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  7. Sam IC, Montoya M, Chua CL, Chan YF, Pastor A, Harris E
    Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg, 2019 11 01;113(11):678-684.
    PMID: 31294807 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/trz056
    BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) is believed to be endemic in Southeast Asia. However, there have been few Zika cases reported to date in Malaysia, which could be due to high pre-existing levels of population immunity.

    METHODS: To determine Zika virus (ZIKV) seroprevalence in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 1085 serum samples from 2012, 2014-2015 and 2017 were screened for anti-ZIKV antibodies using a ZIKV NS1 blockade-of-binding assay. Reactive samples were confirmed using neutralization assays against ZIKV and the four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes. A sample was possible ZIKV seropositive with a ZIKV 50% neutralization (NT50) titre ≥20. A sample was probable ZIKV seropositive if, in addition, all DENV NT50 titres were <20 or the ZIKV NT50 titre was >4-fold greater than the highest DENV NT50 titre.

    RESULTS: We found low rates of possible ZIKV seropositivity (3.3% [95% confidence interval {CI} 2.4 to 4.6]) and probable ZIKV seropositivity (0.6% [95% CI 0.3 to 1.4]). Possible ZIKV seropositivity was independently associated with increasing age (odds ratio [OR] 1.04 [95% CI 1.02 to 1.06], p<0.0001) and male gender (OR 3.5 [95% CI 1.5 to 8.6], p=0.005).

    CONCLUSIONS: The low ZIKV seroprevalence rate, a proxy for population immunity, does not explain the low incidence of Zika in dengue-hyperendemic Kuala Lumpur. Other factors, such as the possible protective effects of pre-existing flavivirus antibodies or reduced transmission by local mosquito vectors, should be explored. Kuala Lumpur is at high risk of a large-scale Zika epidemic.

    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  8. Hassan H, Shohaimi S, Hashim NR
    Geospat Health, 2012 Nov;7(1):21-5.
    PMID: 23242677
    Dengue fever is a recurring public health problem afflicting thousands of Malaysians annually. In this paper, the risk map for dengue fever in the peninsular Malaysian states of Selangor and Kuala Lumpur was modelled based on co-kriging and geographical information systems. Using population density and rainfall as the model's only input factors, the area with the highest risk for dengue infection was given as Gombak and Petaling, two districts located on opposite sides of Kuala Lumpur city that was also included in the risk assessment. Comparison of the modelled risk map with the dengue case dataset of 2010, obtained from the Ministry of Health of Malaysia, confirmed that the highest number of cases had been found in an area centred on Kuala Lumpur as predicted our risk profiling.
    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  9. Low GKK, Papapreponis P, Isa RM, Gan SC, Chee HY, Te KK, et al.
    Geospat Health, 2018 05 07;13(1):642.
    PMID: 29772885 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2018.642
    Increasing numbers of dengue infection worldwide have led to a rise in deaths due to complications caused by this disease. We present here a cross-sectional study of dengue patients who attended the Emergency and Trauma Department of Ampang Hospital, one of Malaysia's leading specialist hospitals. The objective was to search for potential clustering of severe dengue, in space and/or time, among the annual admissions with the secondary objective to describe the spatio-temporal pattern of all dengue cases admitted to this hospital. The dengue status of the patients was confirmed serologically with the geographic location of the patients determined by residency, but not more specific than the street level. A total of 1165 dengue patients were included in the analysis using SaTScan software. The mean age of these patients was 27.8 years, with a standard deviation of 14.2 years and an age range from 1 to 77 years, among whom 54 (4.6%) were cases of severe dengue. A cluster of general dengue cases was identified occurring from October to December in the study year of 2015 but the inclusion of severe dengue in that cluster was not statistically significant (P=0.862). The standardized incidence ratio was 1.51. General presence of dengue cases was, however, detected to be concentrated at the end of the year, which should be useful for hospital planning and management if this pattern holds.
    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  10. Shekhar KC, Huat OL
    Asia Pac J Public Health, 1992;6(3):126-33.
    PMID: 1342799 DOI: 10.1177/101053959200600302
    Dengue fever (DF) has been endemic in Malaysia since 1902 and reached epidemic proportions in 1973. The incidence rate of the disease in 1973 was 5.4 cases per 100,000 and reached 10.4 cases per 100,000 in 1987. The Chinese are the main ethnic community affected showing an overall morbidity rate of 9.0 cases per 100,000 followed by Malays 2.9 cases per 100,000 and Indians 2.4 cases per 100,000. The ethnic race ratio between Chinese, Malays and Indians which was 3.7:1:1.3 in 1975 reached 3.7:1:0.9 in 1987. The attack rates were observed to be higher in the males. The mean male:female ratio among Chinese was 1.1:1, while for Malays and Indians it was 1.5:1. The age-specific morbidity rate was highest in the 10- to 19-year age group followed by the 20- to 29-year age group. Epidemics of dengue fever were found to occur seasonally with the appearance of two peaks, viz. one in June and the other in August. Dengue fever, a rural disease before, has established itself as an urban disease.
    Publication year=1992-1993
    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  11. Shekhar KC, Huat OL
    Asia Pac J Public Health, 1992;6(2):15-25.
    PMID: 1308765 DOI: 10.1177/101053959300600203
    Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), though endemic in the sixties, emerged as a major public health problem in Malaysia from 1973 onwards. The incidence rate of DHF which was 10.1 per 100,000 in 1973 has fallen down to 1.9 per 100,000 in 1987 with a mean case fatality rate of 6.4 per 100 persons. The Chinese appear to be more prone to DHF with the highest mean morbidity rate of 5.5 per 100,000 and case fatality rate of 6.1%. The incidence of DHF is higher in the males with a higher case fatality rate in females. Male Chinese appear to be mainly affected. The overall age-specific incidence rate is highest in two age groups, viz. 5-9 years and 10-19 years of age with a mean morbidity rate of 4.9 cases per 100,000. The mean age-specific case fatality rate was highest in the 0-4 years age group. Dengue hemorrhagic fever is predominantly an urban disease in Malaysia with a mean incidence rate of 5.3 cases per 100,000 as opposed to 1.2 cases per 100,000 being reported from rural areas. The mean overall incidence of deaths in the urban area is 0.5 compared to 0.1 per 100,000 for rural areas. There is a marked seasonal correlation between DHF cases and rainfall, with a peak in August. While all four serotypes of dengue viruses are found in Malaysia, Den 2 appears to be isolated with greater frequency during all the epidemics.
    Publication year=1992-1993
    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  12. Isa A, Loke YK, Smith JR, Papageorgiou A, Hunter PR
    PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2013;7(9):e2401.
    PMID: 24086777 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002401
    BACKGROUND: Dengue fever is endemic in Malaysia, with frequent major outbreaks in urban areas. The major control strategy relies on health promotional campaigns aimed at encouraging people to reduce mosquito breeding sites close to people's homes. However, such campaigns have not always been 100% effective. The concept of self-efficacy is an area of increasing research interest in understanding how health promotion can be most effective. This paper reports on a study of the impact of self-efficacy on dengue knowledge and dengue preventive behaviour.

    METHODS AND FINDINGS: We recruited 280 adults from 27 post-outbreak villages in the state of Terengganu, east coast of Malaysia. Measures of health promotion and educational intervention activities and types of communication during outbreak, level of dengue knowledge, level and strength of self-efficacy and dengue preventive behaviour were obtained via face-to-face interviews and questionnaires. A structural equation model was tested and fitted the data well (χ(2) = 71.659, df = 40, p = 0.002, RMSEA = 0.053, CFI = 0.973, TLI = 0.963). Mass media, local contact and direct information-giving sessions significantly predicted level of knowledge of dengue. Level and strength of self-efficacy fully mediated the relationship between knowledge of dengue and dengue preventive behaviours. Strength of self-efficacy acted as partial mediator in the relationship between knowledge of dengue and dengue preventive behaviours.

    CONCLUSIONS: To control and prevent dengue outbreaks by behavioural measures, health promotion and educational interventions during outbreaks should now focus on those approaches that are most likely to increase the level and strength of self-efficacy.

    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  13. Faisal T, Taib MN, Ibrahim F
    J Med Syst, 2012 Apr;36(2):661-76.
    PMID: 20703665 DOI: 10.1007/s10916-010-9532-x
    With the dramatic increase of the worldwide threat of dengue disease, it has been very crucial to correctly diagnose the dengue patients in order to decrease the disease severity. However, it has been a great challenge for the physicians to identify the level of risk in dengue patients due to overlapping of the medical classification criteria. Therefore, this study aims to construct a noninvasive diagnostic system to assist the physicians for classifying the risk in dengue patients. Systematic producers have been followed to develop the system. Firstly, the assessment of the significant predictors associated with the level of risk in dengue patients was carried out utilizing the statistical analyses technique. Secondly, Multilayer perceptron neural network models trained via Levenberg-Marquardt and Scaled Conjugate Gradient algorithms was employed for constructing the diagnostic system. Finally, precise tuning for the models' parameters was conducted in order to achieve the optimal performance. As a result, 9 noninvasive predictors were found to be significantly associated with the level of risk in dengue patients. By employing those predictors, 75% prediction accuracy has been achieved for classifying the risk in dengue patients using Scaled Conjugate Gradient algorithm while 70.7% prediction accuracy were achieved by using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm.
    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology; Severe Dengue/epidemiology
  14. Kobayashi N, Thayan R, Sugimoto C, Oda K, Saat Z, Vijayamalar B, et al.
    Am J Trop Med Hyg, 1999 Jun;60(6):904-9.
    PMID: 10403318
    To characterize the dengue epidemic that recently occurred in Malaysia, we sequenced cDNAs from nine 1993-1994 dengue virus type-3 (DEN-3) isolates in Malaysia (DEN-3 was the most common type in Malaysia during this period). Nucleic acid sequences (720 nucleotides in length) from the nine isolates, encompassing the precursor of membrane protein (preM) and membrane (M) protein genes and part of the envelope (E) protein gene were aligned with various reference DEN-3 sequences to generate a neighbor-joining phylogenetic tree. According to the constructed tree, the nine Malaysian isolates were grouped into subtype II, which comprises Thai isolates from 1962 to 1987. Five earlier DEN-3 virus Malaysian isolates from 1974 to 1981 belonged to subtype I. The present data indicate that the recent dengue epidemic in Malaysia was due to the introduction of DEN-3 viruses previously endemic to Thailand.
    Matched MeSH terms: Severe Dengue/epidemiology
  15. Dom NC, Ahmad AH, Latif ZA, Ismail R
    Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg, 2013 Nov;107(11):715-22.
    PMID: 24062522 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/trt073
    Dengue has emerged as one of the major public health problems in Malaysia. The Ministry of Health, Malaysia, is committed in monitoring and controlling this disease for many years. The objective of this study is to analyze the dengue outbreak pattern on a monthly basis in Subang Jaya in terms of their spatial dissemination and hotspot identification.
    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  16. Mohamad M, Selamat MI, Ismail Z
    J Environ Public Health, 2014;2014:459173.
    PMID: 25309602 DOI: 10.1155/2014/459173
    In order to reduce the risk of dengue outbreak recurrence in a dengue outbreak prone area, the members of the community need to sustain certain behavior to prevent mosquito from breeding. Our study aims to identify the factors associated with larval control practices in this particular community. A cross-sectional study involves 322 respondents living in a dengue outbreak prone area who were interviewed using a pretested questionnaire. The level of knowledge about Aedes mosquitoes, dengue transmission, its symptoms, and personal preventive measures ranges from fair to good. The level of attitude towards preventive measures was high. However, reported level of personal larval control practices was low (33.2%). Our multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only those with a good level of attitude towards personal preventive measure and frequent attendance to health campaigns were significantly associated with the good larval control practices. We conclude that, in a dengue outbreak prone area, having a good attitude towards preventive measures and frequent participation in health campaigns are important factors to sustain practices on larval control.
    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  17. Mallhi TH, Khan AH, Adnan AS, Sarriff A, Khan YH, Jummaat F
    BMC Infect Dis, 2015 Sep 30;15:399.
    PMID: 26423145 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-015-1141-3
    BACKGROUND: The incidence of dengue is rising steadily in Malaysia since the first major outbreak in 1973. Despite aggressive measures taken by the relevant authorities, Malaysia is still facing worsening dengue crisis over the past few years. There is an urgent need to evaluate dengue cases for better understanding of clinic-laboratory spectrum in order to combat this disease.

    METHODS: A retrospective analysis of dengue patients admitted to a tertiary care teaching hospital during the period of six years (2008 - 2013) was performed. Patient's demographics, clinical and laboratory findings were recorded via structured data collection form. Patients were categorized into dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). Appropriate statistical methods were used to compare these two groups in order to determine difference in clinico-laboratory characteristics and to identify independent risk factors of DHF.

    RESULTS: A total 667 dengue patients (30.69 ± 16.13 years; Male: 56.7 %) were reviewed. Typical manifestations of dengue like fever, myalgia, arthralgia, headache, vomiting, abdominal pain and skin rash were observed in more than 40 % patients. DHF was observed in 79 (11.8 %) cases. Skin rash, dehydration, shortness of breath, pleural effusion and thick gall bladder were more significantly (P  40 years (OR: 4.1, P 

    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology; Severe Dengue/epidemiology
  18. Chang MS, Jute N
    Med J Malaysia, 1986 Dec;41(4):310-9.
    PMID: 3670153
    An outbreak of Dengue and Dengue Harmorrhagic Fever occurred in Lawas District in 1983. A total of 134 cases were notified with 74 cases serologically confirmed. The epidemic which lasted for three months starting from week 20 and peaking in week 24 before being brought under control in week 35 is the first to occur in the district. At the end of the epidemic, 54 localities were affected starting from areas within the vicinity of the town before spreading further inland with the movement of the population.
    Entomological investigation in all the infected areas revealed a high density of Aedes albopictus which was the sole vector present. Effective control of the epidemic was achieved through proper planning, active participation of various agencies and intensive outdoor spraying with malathion 2% or ULV concentrates.
    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
  19. Williams CR, Gill BS, Mincham G, Mohd Zaki AH, Abdullah N, Mahiyuddin WR, et al.
    Epidemiol Infect, 2015 Oct;143(13):2856-64.
    PMID: 25591942 DOI: 10.1017/S095026881400380X
    We aimed to reparameterize and validate an existing dengue model, comprising an entomological component (CIMSiM) and a disease component (DENSiM) for application in Malaysia. With the model we aimed to measure the effect of importation rate on dengue incidence, and to determine the potential impact of moderate climate change (a 1 °C temperature increase) on dengue activity. Dengue models (comprising CIMSiM and DENSiM) were reparameterized for a simulated Malaysian village of 10 000 people, and validated against monthly dengue case data from the district of Petaling Jaya in the state of Selangor. Simulations were also performed for 2008-2012 for variable virus importation rates (ranging from 1 to 25 per week) and dengue incidence determined. Dengue incidence in the period 2010-2012 was modelled, twice, with observed daily weather and with a 1 °C increase, the latter to simulate moderate climate change. Strong concordance between simulated and observed monthly dengue cases was observed (up to r = 0·72). There was a linear relationship between importation and incidence. However, a doubling of dengue importation did not equate to a doubling of dengue activity. The largest individual dengue outbreak was observed with the lowest dengue importation rate. Moderate climate change resulted in an overall decrease in dengue activity over a 3-year period, linked to high human seroprevalence early on in the simulation. Our results suggest that moderate reductions in importation with control programmes may not reduce the frequency of large outbreaks. Moderate increases in temperature do not necessarily lead to greater dengue incidence.
    Matched MeSH terms: Dengue/epidemiology*
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