METHODS: This study involved a modified electronic Delphi technique involving 27 specialists working in primary care recruited via convenient and snowball sampling. The Delphi survey was conducted online between August 2022 and April 2023, utilizing the Google Forms platform. Descriptive statistics were employed to analyse consensus across Delphi rounds.
RESULTS: Twenty-six international experts participated in the survey. The retention rate through the second and third Delphi rounds was 96.2% (n = 25). The broader consensus definition emphasizes person-centred care, collaborative patient-physician partnerships, and a holistic approach to health, including managing acute and chronic conditions through in-person or remote access based on patient preferences, medical needs, and local health system organization.
CONCLUSION: The study highlights the importance of continuity of care, prevention, and coordination with other healthcare professionals as core values of primary care. It also reflects the role of GP/FM in addressing new challenges post-pandemic, such as healthcare delivery beyond standard face-to-face care (e.g. remote consultations) and an increasingly important role in the prevention of infectious diseases. This underscores the need for ongoing research and patient involvement to continually refine and improve primary healthcare delivery in response to changing healthcare landscapes.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An established ultra-sensitive Plasmodium genus quantitative-PCR (qPCR) assay targeting the 18S rRNA gene underwent LOD evaluation with and without reverse transcription (RT) for P. knowlesi, P. cynomolgi and P. vivax using total nucleic acid preserved (DNA/RNA Shield) isolates and archived dried blood spots (DBS). LODs for selected P. knowlesi-specific assays, and reference P. vivax- and P. cynomolgi-specific assays were determined with reverse transcription (RT). Assay specificities were assessed using clinical malaria samples and malaria-negative controls. The use of reverse transcription improved Plasmodium species detection by up to 10,000-fold (Plasmodium genus), 2759-fold (P. knowlesi) and 1000-fold (P. vivax and P. cynomolgi). The Kamau et al. Plasmodium genus RT-qPCR assay was highly sensitive for P. knowlesi detection with a median LOD of ≤0.0002 parasites/μL compared to 0.002 parasites/μL for P. cynomolgi and P. vivax. The LODs with RT for P. knowlesi-specific PCRs were enhanced for the Imwong et al. 18S rRNA (0.0007 parasites/μL) and Divis et al. real-time 18S rRNA (0.0002 parasites/μL) assays, but not for the Lubis et al. hemi-nested SICAvar (1.1 parasites/μL) and Lee et al. nested 18S rRNA (11 parasites/μL). The LOD for P. vivax- and P. cynomolgi-specific assays with RT were moderately improved at 0.02 and 0.002 parasites/μL, respectively (1000-fold change). For DBS P. knowlesi samples the use of RT also markedly improved the Plasmodium genus qPCR LOD from 19.89 to 0.08 parasites/μL (249-fold change); no LOD improvement was demonstrated in DBS archived beyond 6 years. The Plasmodium genus and P. knowlesi-assays were 100% specific for Plasmodium species and P. knowlesi detection, respectively, from 190 clinical infections and 48 healthy controls. Reference P. vivax-specific primers demonstrated known cross-reactivity with P. cynomolgi.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings support the use of an 18S rRNA Plasmodium genus qPCR and species-specific nested PCR protocol with RT for highly-sensitive surveillance of zoonotic and human Plasmodium species infections.
METHODS: An established ultra-sensitive Plasmodium genus quantitative-PCR (qPCR) assay targeting the 18S rRNA gene underwent LOD evaluation with and without reverse transcription (RT) for P. knowlesi, P. cynomolgi and P. vivax using total nucleic acid preserved (DNA/RNA Shield™) isolates and archived dried blood spots (DBS). LODs for selected P. knowlesi-specific assays, and reference P. vivax- and P. cynomolgi-specific assays were determined with RT. Assay specificities were assessed using clinical malaria samples and malaria-negative controls.
RESULTS: The use of reverse transcription improved Plasmodium species detection by up to 10,000-fold (Plasmodium genus), 2759-fold (P. knowlesi), 1000-fold (P. vivax) and 10-fold (P. cynomolgi). The median LOD with RT for the Kamau et al. Plasmodium genus RT-qPCR assay was ≤0.0002 parasites/μL for P. knowlesi and 0.002 parasites/μL for both P. cynomolgi and P. vivax. The LODs with RT for P. knowlesi-specific PCRs were: Imwong et al. 18S rRNA (0.0007 parasites/μL); Divis et al. real-time 18S rRNA (0.0002 parasites/μL); Lubis et al. hemi-nested SICAvar (1.1 parasites/μL) and Lee et al. nested 18S rRNA (11 parasites/μL). The LOD for P. vivax- and P. cynomolgi-specific assays with RT were 0.02 and 0.20 parasites/μL respectively. For DBS P. knowlesi samples the median LOD for the Plasmodium genus qPCR with RT was 0.08, and without RT was 19.89 parasites/uL (249-fold change); no LOD improvement was demonstrated in DBS archived beyond 6 years. The Plasmodium genus and P. knowlesi-assays were 100% specific for Plasmodium species and P. knowlesi detection, respectively, from 190 clinical infections and 48 healthy controls. Reference P. vivax-specific primers demonstrated known cross-reactivity with P. cynomolgi.
CONCLUSION: Our findings support the use of an 18S rRNA Plasmodium genus qPCR and species-specific nested PCR protocol with RT for highly-sensitive surveillance of zoonotic and human Plasmodium species infections.
METHODS: The number of new incident cases and deaths for all cancers combined and for leading cancers were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database developed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer for the 11 countries in southeast Asia. For comparison, we extracted estimates from China, India, Japan, Pakistan, South Korea, and the USA. We estimated age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 person-years; projections to 2050 were also estimated by multiplying ASIR and ASMR estimates for 2022 by the expected population for 2050. Data on race or ethnicity were not collected.
FINDINGS: Data were extracted on Dec 5, 2024. For the 11 countries in southeast Asia for all cancers combined, 545 725 (47·6%) of a total of 1 146 810 incident cases were estimated in men and 601 085 (52·4%) incident cases were estimated in women in 2022. In the same period, 385 430 (53·8%) of a total of 716 116 deaths were estimated in men and 330 686 (46·2%) deaths were estimated in women. The total cancer ASIR in men and women was highest in Singapore (235·89 per 100 000 and 231·01 per 100 000 respectively), while the corresponding ASMR was greatest in Laos for men (132·91 per 100 000) and Brunei for women (104·20 per 100 000). Breast cancer was the most common cancer among women in all countries (highest ASIRs in Singapore [72·61 per 100 000] and the Philippines [60·34 per 100 000]), and the most common cause of cancer mortality among women in the Philippines (ASMR 21·47 per 100 000), Malaysia (19·30 per 100 000), Singapore (17·82 per 100 000), Viet Nam (14·67 per 100 000), Indonesia (14·35 per 100 000), and Timor-Leste (10·24 per 100 000). Among men, lung cancer was the most frequently diagnosed cancer in the Philippines (ASIR 37·66 per 100 000), Malaysia (23·23 per 100 000), Myanmar (21·59 per 100 000), and Indonesia (21·30 per 100 000), and the leading cause of death due to cancer in the Philippines (ASMR 33·59 per 100 000), Singapore (31·94 per 100 000), Brunei (23·84 per 100 000), Malaysia (20·42 per 100 000), Myanmar (19·91 per 100 000), Indonesia (18·96 per 100 000), and Timor-Leste (12·95 per 100 000). Liver cancer contributed the greatest incidence and mortality in men in Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam, and Thailand, and was also the leading cause of death due to cancer among women in Laos (ASMR 13·49 per 100 000), Cambodia (13·34 per 100 000), and Thailand (12·14 per 100 000). Cervical cancer was the leading cause of death due to cancer in women in Myanmar (ASMR 13·37 per 100 000); colorectal cancer was the most common cancer in men in Singapore (ASIR 39·41 per 100 00) and Brunei (37·70 per 100 000). By 2050, 2·03 million new cases of cancer are anticipated in southeast Asia annually, an 89·2% increase in men and a 65·6% increase in women, relative to 2022.
INTERPRETATION: The current patterns of cancer incidence and mortality in southeast Asia are primarily driven by breast cancer in women and lung cancer in men, but infection-related cancers (liver and cervix) are common in some countries. Regional collaborations must be strengthened to improve cancer prevention, diagnosis, care, and research in southeast Asia.
FUNDING: National Cancer Institute and the Prostate Cancer Foundation.
METHODS: In total, 299 SNPs previously associated with prostate cancer were evaluated for inclusion in a new PHS, using a LASSO-regularized Cox proportional hazards model in a training dataset of 72,181 men from the PRACTICAL Consortium. The PHS model was evaluated in four testing datasets: African ancestry, Asian ancestry, and two of European Ancestry-the Cohort of Swedish Men (COSM) and the ProtecT study. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated to compare men with high versus low PHS for association with clinically significant, with any, and with fatal prostate cancer. The impact of genetic risk stratification on the positive predictive value (PPV) of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer was also measured.
RESULTS: The final model (PHS290) had 290 SNPs with non-zero coefficients. Comparing, for example, the highest and lowest quintiles of PHS290, the hazard ratios (HRs) for clinically significant prostate cancer were 13.73 [95% CI: 12.43-15.16] in ProtecT, 7.07 [6.58-7.60] in African ancestry, 10.31 [9.58-11.11] in Asian ancestry, and 11.18 [10.34-12.09] in COSM. Similar results were seen for association with any and fatal prostate cancer. Without PHS stratification, the PPV of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer in ProtecT was 0.12 (0.11-0.14). For the top 20% and top 5% of PHS290, the PPV of PSA testing was 0.19 (0.15-0.22) and 0.26 (0.19-0.33), respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate better genetic risk stratification for clinically significant prostate cancer than prior versions of PHS in multi-ancestry datasets. This is promising for implementing precision-medicine approaches to prostate cancer screening decisions in diverse populations.
METHODS: Global estimates of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths from GBD 2021 were analyzed for common metabolic diseases (T2DM, hypertension, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, and MASLD). Age-standardized DALYs (mortality) per 100,000 population and annual percentage change (APC) between 1990 and 2021 were estimated for trend analyses. Estimates are reported with uncertainty intervals (UI).
RESULTS: In 2021, among five common metabolic diseases, hypertension had the greatest burden (226 million [95 % UI: 190-259] DALYs), whilst T2DM (75 million [95 % UI: 63-90] DALYs) conferred much greater disability than MASLD (3.67 million [95 % UI: 2.90-4.61]). The highest absolute burden continues to be found in the most populous countries of the world, particularly India, China, and the United States, whilst the highest relative burden was mostly concentrated in Oceania Island states. The burden of these metabolic diseases has continued to increase over the past three decades but has varied in the rate of increase (1.6-fold to 3-fold increase). The burden of T2DM (0.42 % [95 % UI: 0.34-0.51]) and obesity (0.26 % [95 % UI: 0.17-0.34]) has increased at an accelerated rate, while the rate of increase for the burden of hypertension (-0.30 % [95 % UI: -0.34 to -0.25]) and hypercholesterolemia (-0.33 % [95 % UI: -0.37 to -0.30]) is slowing. There is no significant change in MASLD over time (0.05 % [95 % UI: -0.06 to 0.17]).
CONCLUSION: In the 21st century, common metabolic diseases are presenting a significant global health challenge. There is a concerning surge in DALYs and mortality associated with these conditions, underscoring the necessity for a coordinated global health initiative to stem the tide of these debilitating diseases and improve population health outcomes worldwide.
AIMS: This study aims to provide comprehensive estimates of five important metabolic risk factors and the attributable disease burden in people aged 15-39 years from 1990 to 2021, based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database.
METHODS: Global total deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used to describe the burden attributable to five common metabolic risk factors, including high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high body mass index (BMI), and kidney dysfunction, in adolescents and young adults. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) of DALYs were utilized to depict the trends from 1990 to 2021.
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the DALY rates attributable to all metabolic risk factors showed a globally significant upward trend, with EAPC reaching 33.0 % (27.4-38.7). Compared to females, males had a heavier burden and a more significant increase in deaths and DALYs attributable to metabolic risk factors. High BMI and high FPG have become the top two metabolic risk factors in 2021, with summary exposure variables (SEV) rising by 84.2 % and 53.6 %, respectively. Low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI), middle SDI, and high SDI regions experienced upward regional trends in DALY rates, while low SDI regions remained stable. Among 204 countries and territories, 101 (49.5 %) showed a significant increase in DALY rates, as indicated by the EAPC.
CONCLUSIONS: There is a substantial global burden attributable to metabolic risk factors in adolescents and young adults in 2021, especially high BMI and high FPG. This calls for further investigation and intervention to address this emerging trend.
MATERIALS AND METHOD: 180 SNPs, shown to be previously associated with prostate cancer, were used to develop a PHS model in men with European ancestry. A machine-learning approach, LASSO-regularized Cox regression, was used to select SNPs and to estimate their coefficients in the training set (75,596 men). Performance of the resulting model was evaluated in the testing/validation set (6,411 men) with two metrics: (1) hazard ratios (HRs) and (2) positive predictive value (PPV) of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. HRs were estimated between individuals with PHS in the top 5% to those in the middle 40% (HR95/50), top 20% to bottom 20% (HR80/20), and bottom 20% to middle 40% (HR20/50). PPV was calculated for the top 20% (PPV80) and top 5% (PPV95) of PHS as the fraction of individuals with elevated PSA that were diagnosed with clinically significant prostate cancer on biopsy.
RESULTS: 166 SNPs had non-zero coefficients in the Cox model (PHS166). All HR metrics showed significant improvements for PHS166 compared to PHS46: HR95/50 increased from 3.72 to 5.09, HR80/20 increased from 6.12 to 9.45, and HR20/50 decreased from 0.41 to 0.34. By contrast, no significant differences were observed in PPV of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer.
CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating 120 additional SNPs (PHS166 vs PHS46) significantly improved HRs for prostate cancer, while PPV of PSA testing remained the same.
METHODS: Total numbers and age-standardized rates per 100,000 population for MASLD prevalence, annual incidence, and YLDs were compared across regions and countries by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Smoothing spline models were used to evaluate the relationship between the burden of MASLD and SDI. Estimates were reported with uncertainty intervals (UI).
RESULTS: Globally, in 2021, the age-standardized rates per 100,000 population of point prevalence of MASLD were 15,018.1 cases (95% UI 13,756.5-16,361.4), annual incidence rates were 608.5 cases (598.8-617.7), and YLDs were 0.5 (0.3-0.8) years. MASLD point prevalence was higher in men than women (15,731.4 vs. 14,310.6 cases per 100,000 population). Prevalence peaked at ages 45-49 for men and 50-54 for women. Kuwait (32,312.2 cases per 100,000 people; 95% UI: 29,947.1-34,839.0), Egypt (31,668.8 cases per 100,000 people; 95% UI: 29,272.5-34,224.7), and Qatar (31,327.5 cases per 100,000 people; 95% UI: 29,078.5-33,790.9) had the highest prevalence rates in 2021. The largest increases in age-standardized point prevalence estimates from 2010 to 2021 were in China (16.9%, 95% UI 14.7%-18.9%), Sudan (13.3%, 95% UI 9.8%-16.7%) and India (13.2%, 95% UI 12.0%-14.4%). MASLD incidence varied with SDI, peaking at moderate SDI levels.
CONCLUSIONS: MASLD is a global health concern, with the highest prevalence reported in Kuwait, Egypt, and Qatar. Raising awareness about risk factors and prevention is essential in every country, especially in China, Sudan and India, where disease incidence and prevalence are rapidly increasing.
IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: This research provides a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of MASLD, highlighting its rising prevalence and incidence, particularly in countries with varying sociodemographic indices. The findings are significant for both clinicians and policymakers, as they offer critical insights into the regional disparities in MASLD burden, which can inform targeted prevention and intervention strategies. However, the study's reliance on modeling and available data suggests cautious interpretation, and further research is needed to validate these findings in clinical and real-world settings.
OBJECTIVE: To test if SNPs associated with other traits may also affect the risk of aggressive prostate cancer.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: SNPs implicated in any phenotype other than prostate cancer (p≤10(-7)) were identified through the catalog of published GWAS and tested in 2891 aggressive prostate cancer cases and 4592 controls from the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3). The 40 most significant SNPs were followed up in 4872 aggressive prostate cancer cases and 24,534 controls from the Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome (PRACTICAL) consortium.
OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for aggressive prostate cancer were estimated.
RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: A total of 4666 SNPs were evaluated by the BPC3. Two signals were seen in regions already reported for prostate cancer risk. rs7014346 at 8q24.21 was marginally associated with aggressive prostate cancer in the BPC3 trial (p=1.6×10(-6)), whereas after meta-analysis by PRACTICAL the summary OR was 1.21 (95% CI 1.16-1.27; p=3.22×10(-18)). rs9900242 at 17q24.3 was also marginally associated with aggressive disease in the meta-analysis (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.86-0.94; p=2.5×10(-6)). Neither of these SNPs remained statistically significant when conditioning on correlated known prostate cancer SNPs. The meta-analysis by BPC3 and PRACTICAL identified a third promising signal, marked by rs16844874 at 2q34, independent of known prostate cancer loci (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06-1.19; p=4.67×10(-5)); it has been shown that SNPs correlated with this signal affect glycine concentrations. The main limitation is the heterogeneity in the definition of aggressive prostate cancer between BPC3 and PRACTICAL.
CONCLUSIONS: We did not identify new SNPs for aggressive prostate cancer. However, rs16844874 may provide preliminary genetic evidence on the role of the glycine pathway in prostate cancer etiology.
PATIENT SUMMARY: We evaluated whether genetic variants associated with several traits are linked to the risk of aggressive prostate cancer. No new such variants were identified.
METHODS: We used data from an ongoing individual participant meta-analysis involving 17 population-based cohorts worldwide. We selected 60,211 participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline with available data on ethnicity (White, Black, Asian or Hispanic). We generated a multivariable linear regression model containing risk factors and ethnicity predicting mean common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and a multivariable Cox regression model predicting myocardial infarction or stroke. For each risk factor we assessed how the association with the preclinical and clinical measures of cardiovascular atherosclerotic disease was affected by ethnicity.
RESULTS: Ethnicity appeared to significantly modify the associations between risk factors and CIMT and cardiovascular events. The association between age and CIMT was weaker in Blacks and Hispanics. Systolic blood pressure associated more strongly with CIMT in Asians. HDL cholesterol and smoking associated less with CIMT in Blacks. Furthermore, the association of age and total cholesterol levels with the occurrence of cardiovascular events differed between Blacks and Whites.
CONCLUSION: The magnitude of associations between risk factors and the presence of atherosclerotic disease differs between race/ethnic groups. These subtle, yet significant differences provide insight in the etiology of cardiovascular disease among race/ethnic groups. These insights aid the race/ethnic-specific implementation of primary prevention.