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Fulltext Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia

Paterson RR, Kumar L, Taylor S, Lima N

Sci Rep, 2015;5:14457.
PMID: 26399638 DOI: 10.1038/srep14457

The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Fulltext Climate change affecting oil palm agronomy, and oil palm cultivation increasing climate change, require amelioration

Paterson RRM, Lima N

Ecol Evol, 2018 01;8(1):452-461.
PMID: 29321885 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3610

Palm oil is used in various valued commodities and is a large global industry worth over US$ 50 billion annually. Oil palms (OP) are grown commercially in Indonesia and Malaysia and other countries within Latin America and Africa. The large-scale land-use change has high ecological, economic, and social impacts. Tropical countries in particular are affected negatively by climate change (CC) which also has a detrimental impact on OP agronomy, whereas the cultivation of OP increases CC. Amelioration of both is required. The reduced ability to grow OP will reduce CC, which may allow more cultivation tending to increase CC, in a decreasing cycle. OP could be increasingly grown in more suitable regions occurring under CC. Enhancing the soil fauna may compensate for the effect of CC on OP agriculture to some extent. The effect of OP cultivation on CC may be reduced by employing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plans, for example, by avoiding illegal fire land clearing. Other ameliorating methods are reported herein. More research is required involving good management practices that can offset the increases in CC by OP plantations. Overall, OP-growing countries should support the Paris convention on reducing CC as the most feasible scheme for reducing CC.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Fulltext Impact of elevated temperature on the physiological and biochemical responses of Kappaphycus alvarezii (Rhodophyta)

Kumar YN, Poong SW, Gachon C, Brodie J, Sade A, Lim PE

PLoS One, 2020;15(9):e0239097.
PMID: 32925956 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239097

The eucheumatoids Kappaphycus and Eucheuma are cultivated in tropical or subtropical regions for the production of carrageenan, a hydrocolloid widely used in the food and cosmetic industries. Kappaphycus alvarezii is a highly valued economic crop in the Coral Triangle, with the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia ranked among the largest producers. In the absence of measures to mitigate climate change, extreme events including heatwaves, typhoons, severe El Niño and La Niña, are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude. This inadvertently brings adverse effects to the seaweed cultivation industry, especially in the tropics. Temperatures are rapidly reaching the upper limit of biologically tolerable levels and an increase in reports of ice-ice and pest outbreaks is attributable to these shifts of environmental parameters. Nevertheless, few reports on the response of eucheumatoids to a changing environment, in particular global warming, are available. Understanding the responses and possible mechanisms for acclimation to warming is crucial for a sustainable seaweed cultivation industry. Here, the physiological and biochemical responses of K. alvarezii to acute warming indicated that the strain used in the current study is unlikely to survive sudden increases in temperature above 36°C. As temperature increased, the growth rates, photosynthetic performance, phycocolloid quality (carrageenan yield, gel strength and gel viscosity) and pigment content (chlorophyll-a, carotenoid and phycobiliproteins) were reduced while the production of reactive oxygen species increased indicating the occurrence of stress in the seaweeds. This study provides a basis for future work on long term acclimation to elevated temperature and mesocosm-based multivariate studies to identify heat-tolerant strains for sustainable cultivation.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Fulltext Hydrological responses to climate and land use change at watershed scale_ Malaysia

Mahboubeh Ebrahimian, Ahmad Ainuddin Nuruddin, Mohd Amin Mohd Soom, Alias Mohd Sood, Liew Juneng

The Pertanika Journal of Scholarly Research Reviews, 2017;3(2):10-32.
MyJurnal

The hydrological effects of climate variation and land use conversion can occur at various spatial scales, but the most important sources of these changes are at the regional or watershed scale. In addition, the managerial and technical measures are primarily implemented at local and watershed scales in order to mitigate adverse impacts of human activities on the renewable resources of the watershed. Therefore, quantitative estimation of the possible hydrological consequences of potential land use and climate changes on hydrological regime at watershed scale is of tremendous importance. This paper focuses on the impacts of climate change as well as land use change on the hydrological processes of river basin based on pertinent published literature which were precisely scrutinized. The various causes, forms, and consequences of such impacts were discussed to synthesize the key findings of literature in reputable sources and to identify gaps in the knowledge where further research is required. Results indicate that the watershed-scale studies were found as a gap in tropical regions. Also, these studies are important to facilitate the application of results to real environment. Watershed scale studies are essential to measure the extent of influences made to the hydrological conditions and understanding of causes and effects of climate variation and land use conversion on hydrological cycle and water resources.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Projected changes of future climate extremes in Malaysia

Meng Sei Kwan, Fredolin T. Tangang, Liew Juneng

Sains Malaysiana, 2013;42:1051-1059.

Mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change at regional level require downscaled projection of future climate states. This paper examined the possible changes of future climate extremes over Malaysia based on the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. The projected changes at 17 stations were produced by bias correcting the UKMO PRECIS downscaling simulation output. The simulation expected higher probability of rainfall extreme occurrences over the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia during the autumn transitional monsoon period. In addition, possible early monsoon rainfall was projected for certain stations located over East Malaysia. The simulation also projected larger increase of warm temperature extremes but smaller decrease of cold extremes, suggesting asymmetric expansion of the temperature distribution. The impact of the elevated green house gases (GHG) is higher in the night time temperature extremes as compared to the day time temperature extremes. The larger increment of warm night frequencies as compared to the warm day suggests smaller diurnal temperature ranges under the influence of higher greenhouse gases. Stations located in East Malaysia were projected to experience the largest increase of warm night occurrence.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Projection of storm surge climate extreme over Sunda Shelf based on IPCC SRES A2 scenario

Wah SH, Halimatun Muhamad, Tangang FT, Liew J

Sains Malaysiana, 2012;41:1411-1422.

The historical and future storm surge climate over the South China Sea Sunda Shelf was derived using a barotropic two dimensional model. The atmospheric forcings were obtained from the UKMO regional climate modeling system, PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), forced at the boundary by the ECHAM4 simulation output under the SRES A2 emission experiment. In general, the model simulates historical sea surface elevation characteristics satisfactory although there is a substantial underestimation for the sea level elevation at local scales. The climate change analysis suggests that the storm surge extreme over the Sunda Shelf is expected to increase along the coastal area of the Gulf of Thailand and east coast of Peninsular Malaysia in the future (2071-2100). The projected increment is averagely ~9% over the Sunda Shelf region by the end of the 21st century corresponding to about 5% stronger wind speed as compare to the baseline period of 1961-1990.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Assessing the impacts of climate change in cities and their adaptive capacity: Towards transformative approaches to climate change adaptation and poverty reduction in urban areas in a set of developing countries

Filho WL, Balogun AL, Olayide OE, Azeiteiro UM, Ayal DY, Muñoz PDC, et al.

Sci Total Environ, 2019 Nov 20;692:1175-1190.
PMID: 31539949 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.227

Many cities across the world are facing many problems climate change poses to their populations, communities and infrastructure. These vary from increased exposures to floods, to discomfort due to urban heat, depending on their geographical locations and settings. However, even though some cities have a greater ability to cope with climate change challenges, many struggle to do so, particularly in cities in developing countries. In addition, there is a shortage of international studies which examine the links between climate change adaptation and cities, and which at the same time draw some successful examples of good practice, which may assist future efforts. This paper is an attempt to address this information need. The aim of this paper is to analyse the extent to which cities in a sample of developing countries are attempting to pursue climate change adaptation and the problems which hinder this process. Its goal is to showcase examples of initiatives and good practice in transformative adaptation, which may be replicable elsewhere. To this purpose, the paper describes some trends related to climate change in a set of cities in developing countries across different continents, including one of the smallest capital cities (Georgetown, Guyana) and Shanghai, one the world's most populous cities. In particular, it analyses their degree of vulnerability, how they manage to cope with climate change impacts, and the policies being implemented to aid adaptation. It also suggests the use of transformative approaches which may be adopted, in order to assist them in their efforts towards investments in low-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure, thereby maximizing investments in urban areas and trying to address their related poverty issues. This paper addresses a gap in the international literature on the problems many cities in developing countries face, in trying to adapt to a changing climate.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Uniting the Global Gastroenterology Community to Meet the Challenge of Climate Change and Non-Recyclable Waste

Leddin D, Omary MB, Veitch A, Metz G, Amrani N, Aabakken L, et al.

Gastroenterology, 2021 11;161(5):1354-1360.
PMID: 34629165 DOI: 10.1053/j.gastro.2021.08.001
Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
Uniting the Global Gastroenterology Community to Meet the Challenge of Climate Change and Nonrecyclable Waste

Leddin D, Omary MB, Veitch A, Metz G, Amrani N, Aabakken L, et al.

J Clin Gastroenterol, 2021 10 8;55(10):823-829.
PMID: 34617932 DOI: 10.1097/MCG.0000000000001619

Climate change has been described as the greatest public health threat of the 21st century. It has significant implications for digestive health. A multinational team with representation from all continents, excluding Antarctica and covering 18 countries, has formulated a commentary which outlines both the implications for digestive health and ways in which this challenge can be faced.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
The value of small mangrove patches

Curnick DJ, Pettorelli N, Amir AA, Balke T, Barbier EB, Crooks S, et al.

Science, 2019 01 18;363(6424):239.
PMID: 30655434 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw0809
Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Orchids of cloud forest in Genting Highlands, Pahang, Malaysia

Ng YJ, Go R, Rosimah Nulit, Khor HE, Tan MC, Farah Alia Nordin, et al.

Sains Malaysiana, 2012;41:505-526.

An inventory of orchid species diversity was carried out in cloud forest of Genting Highlands, which is one of the most developed highland areas in Peninsular Malaysia. Since 1967, construction of roads and hotel complexes has had a serious impact on its physical environment and vegetation. Habitat destructions together with climate change might have caused some orchid species to be extirpated locally or extinct. The cloud forest of Genting Highlands consists of four major peaks, Gunung Ulu Kali, Gunung Chin Chin, Gunung Lari Tembakau and Gunung Mengkuang. However, not much study on orchid diversity was conducted in these areas, therefore, this study is timely and essential to evaluate the current orchid diversity after a gap of three decades. Combined findings from the current study, previous published works and specimens deposited in local herbaria, including those at the Universiti Malaya, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Forest Researh Institute of Malaysia and Biology Department, Faculty of Science, Universiti Putra Malaysia and Singapore Botanic Gardens, an updated list of orchid species found in the cloud forests of Genting Highlands is presented. A total of 134 orchid taxa were recorded, comprised of 51 genera, 132 species, 1 subspecies and 2 varieties, of which 46 are new records to Genting Highlands. Hymenorchis javanica, a species previously reported as endemic to West Jawa was recently discovered in Gunung Ulu Kali. Thirty-three species discovered during this study are currently classified as endemic to Peninsular Malaysia, of which 20 are endemic to Pahang, Perak and Selangor and a very narrowly endemic species; Corybas villosus to Gunung Ulu Kali. Through our observations, most of the orchid species in Gunung Ulu Kali are very susceptible to disappearance due to loss of habitat and local climate change. An assessment of conservation status according to IUCN criterion revealed that 47 orchid taxa from Gunung Ulu Kali were threatened with extinction. Conservation actions were suggested to conserve the orchid diversity in the cloud forest areas of Genting Highlands.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Fulltext Emerging challenges for sustainable development and forest conservation in Sarawak, Borneo

Alamgir M, Campbell MJ, Sloan S, Engert J, Word J, Laurance WF

PLoS One, 2020;15(3):e0229614.
PMID: 32126070 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229614

The forests of Borneo-the third largest island on the planet-sustain some of the highest biodiversity and carbon storage in the world. The forests also provide vital ecosystem services and livelihood support for millions of people in the region, including many indigenous communities. The Pan-Borneo Highway and several hydroelectric dams are planned or already under construction in Sarawak, a Malaysian state comprising part of the Borneo. This development seeks to enhance economic growth and regional connectivity, support community access to services, and promote industrial development. However, the implications of the development of highway and dams for forest integrity, biodiversity and ecosystem services remained largely unreported. We assessed these development projects using fine-scale biophysical and environmental data and found several environmental and socioeconomic risks associated with the projects. The highway and hydroelectric dam projects will impact 32 protected areas including numerous key habitats of threatened species such as the proboscis monkey (Nasalis larvatus), Sarawak surili (Presbytis chrysomelas), Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus) and tufted ground squirrel (Rheithrosciurus macrotis). Under its slated development trajectory, the local and trans-national forest connectivity between Malaysian Borneo and Indonesian Borneo would also be substantially diminished. Nearly ~161 km of the Pan-Borneo Highway in Sarawak will traverse forested landscapes and ~55 km will traverse carbon-rich peatlands. The 13 hydroelectric dam projects will collectively impact ~1.7 million ha of forest in Sarawak. The consequences of planned highway and hydroelectric dams construction will increase the carbon footprint of development in the region. Moreover, many new road segments and hydroelectric dams would be built on steep slopes in high-rainfall zones and forested areas, increasing both construction and ongoing maintenance costs. The projects would also alter livelihood activities of downstream communities, risking their long-term sustainability. Overall, our findings identify major economic, social and environmental risks for several planned road segments in Sarawak-such as those between Telok Melano and Kuching; Sibu and Bintulu; and in the Lambir, Limbang and Lawas regions-and dam projects-such as Tutoh, Limbang, Lawas, Baram, Linau, Ulu Air and Baleh dams. Such projects need to be reviewed to ensure they reflect Borneo's unique environmental and forest ecosystem values, the aspirations of local communities and long-term sustainability of the projects rather than being assessed solely on their short-term economic returns.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Marker-assisted backcrossing: a useful method for rice improvement

Hasan MM, Rafii MY, Ismail MR, Mahmood M, Rahim HA, Alam MA, et al.

Biotechnology, biotechnological equipment, 2015 Mar 04;29(2):237-254.
PMID: 26019637

The world's population is increasing very rapidly, reducing the cultivable land of rice, decreasing table water, emerging new diseases and pests, and the climate changes are major issues that must be addressed to researchers to develop sustainable crop varieties with resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses. However, recent scientific discoveries and advances particularly in genetics, genomics and crop physiology have opened up new opportunities to reduce the impact of these stresses which would have been difficult if not impossible as recently as the turn of the century. Marker assisted backcrossing (MABC) is one of the most promising approaches is the use of molecular markers to identify and select genes controlling resistance to those factors. Regarding this, MABC can contribute to develop resistant or high-yielding or quality rice varieties by incorporating a gene of interest into an elite variety which is already well adapted by the farmers. MABC is newly developed efficient tool by which using large population sizes (400 or more plants) for the backcross F1 generations, it is possible to recover the recurrent parent genotype using only two or three backcrosses. So far, many high yielding, biotic and abiotic stresses tolerance, quality and fragrance rice varieties have been developed in rice growing countries through MABC within the shortest timeframe. Nowadays, MABC is being used widely in plant breeding programmes to develop new variety/lines especially in rice. This paper reviews recent literature on some examples of variety/ line development using MABC strategy.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Fulltext The Connection between Absorptive Capacity and Green Innovation: The Function of Board Capital and Environmental Regulation

Javeed SA, Teh BH, Ong TS, Lan NTP, Muthaiyah S, Latief R

Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2023 Feb 10;20(4).
PMID: 36833812 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20043119

The stress of environmental regulations, sustainable development objectives, and global warming is becoming more prominent now. Most studies conclude that the industrial sector is largely at fault and under tremendous pressure to address these climate change issues. This study highlights the significance of green innovation to Chinese firms in mitigating these conservational challenges, and the study probes the association between green innovation and absorptive capacity. Additionally, board capital (the social and human capital of directors) and environmental regulation-both drivers of green innovation-are explored as moderators between green innovation and absorptive capacity. With appropriate econometric methods and theoretical support from the natural resource-based review, the resource dependency theory, and the Porter hypothesis, the results indicate the positive relationship between green innovation and absorptive capacity. They also reveal board capital and environmental regulation as positive moderators, emphasizing their significance to green innovation. This study offers several suggestions and directives for stakeholders, such as businesses, policymakers, and governments, to foster green innovation for greater profitability, minimizing negative industrial consequences.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
Fulltext Predictive modeling and mapping of Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) distribution using maximum entropy

Nazeri M, Jusoff K, Madani N, Mahmud AR, Bahman AR, Kumar L

PLoS One, 2012;7(10):e48104.
PMID: 23110182 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0048104

One of the available tools for mapping the geographical distribution and potential suitable habitats is species distribution models. These techniques are very helpful for finding poorly known distributions of species in poorly sampled areas, such as the tropics. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is a recently developed modeling method that can be successfully calibrated using a relatively small number of records. In this research, the MaxEnt model was applied to describe the distribution and identify the key factors shaping the potential distribution of the vulnerable Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) in one of the main remaining habitats in Peninsular Malaysia. MaxEnt results showed that even though Malaysian sun bear habitat is tied with tropical evergreen forests, it lives in a marginal threshold of bio-climatic variables. On the other hand, current protected area networks within Peninsular Malaysia do not cover most of the sun bears potential suitable habitats. Assuming that the predicted suitability map covers sun bears actual distribution, future climate change, forest degradation and illegal hunting could potentially severely affect the sun bear's population.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Fulltext Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia

Khormi HM, Kumar L

Geospat Health, 2016 11 21;11(3):416.
PMID: 27903054 DOI: 10.4081/gh.2016.416

We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Fulltext Small temperature variations are a key regulator of reproductive growth and assimilate storage in oil palm (Elaeis guineensis)

Tani N, Abdul Hamid ZA, Joseph N, Sulaiman O, Hashim R, Arai T, et al.

Sci Rep, 2020 01 20;10(1):650.
PMID: 31959766 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-57170-8

Oil palm is an important crop for global vegetable oil production, and is widely grown in the humid tropical regions of Southeast Asia. Projected future climate change may well threaten palm oil production. However, oil palm plantations currently produce large amounts of unutilised biological waste. Oil palm stems - which comprise two-thirds of the waste - are especially relevant because they can contain high levels of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) that can serve as feedstock for biorefineries. The NSC in stem are also considered a potent buffer to source-sink imbalances. In the present study, we monitored stem NSC levels and female reproductive growth. We then applied convergent cross mapping (CCM) to assess the causal relationship between the time-series. Mutual causal relationships between female reproductive growth and the stem NSC were detected, with the exception of a relationship between female reproductive organ growth and starch levels. The NSC levels were also influenced by long-term cumulative temperature, with the relationship showing a seven-month time lag. The dynamic between NSC levels and long-term cumulative rainfall showed a shorter time lag. The lower temperatures and higher cumulative rainfall observed from October to December identify this as a period with maximum stem NSC stocks.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
Fulltext Daily temperature effects on under-five mortality in a tropical climate country and the role of local characteristics

Phung VLH, Oka K, Honda Y, Hijioka Y, Ueda K, Seposo XT, et al.

Environ Res, 2023 Feb 01;218:114988.
PMID: 36463996 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114988

BACKGROUND: Climate change and its subsequent effects on temperature have raised global public health concerns. Although numerous epidemiological studies have shown the adverse health effects of temperature, the association remains unclear for children aged below five years old and those in tropical climate regions.
METHODS: We conducted a two-stage time-stratified case-crossover study to examine the association between temperature and under-five mortality, spanning the period from 2014 to 2018 across all six regions in Malaysia. In the first stage, we estimated region-specific temperature-mortality associations using a conditional Poisson regression and distributed lag nonlinear models. We used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool the region-specific estimates and examine the potential role of local characteristics in the association, which includes geographical information, demographics, socioeconomic status, long-term temperature metrics, and healthcare access by region.
RESULTS: Temperature in Malaysia ranged from 22 °C to 31 °C, with a mean of 27.6 °C. No clear seasonality was observed in under-five mortality. We found no strong evidence of the association between temperature and under-five mortality, with an "M-" shaped exposure-response curve. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) was identified at 27.1 °C. Among several local characteristics, only education level and hospital bed rates reduced the residual heterogeneity in the association. However, effect modification by these variables were not significant.
CONCLUSION: This study suggests a null association between temperature and under-five mortality in Malaysia, which has a tropical climate. The "M-" shaped pattern suggests that under-fives may be vulnerable to temperature changes, even with a small temperature change in reference to the MMT. However, the weak risks with a large uncertainty at extreme temperatures remained inconclusive. Potential roles of education level and hospital bed rate were statistically inconclusive.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Rapid comparison of precipitation data between satellite and in situ observations

Ng CK, Kong RW, Foo GH, Khoo G

Environ Monit Assess, 2022 Dec 24;195(1):228.
PMID: 36565392 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-022-10789-z

The agriculture sector responsible for global food and nutrition security has an urgent need to examine climatic trends so that adaptations can be exercised in advance. Freely available dataset from satellite sources can greatly ease rainfall analysis, especially for smallholder farmers who typically operate under limited resources. Tests to determine their accuracy, however, are so far not deployed in tropical Southeast Asia. We compared in situ observations with dataset from the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) and the Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) in two sites located 180 km apart in the tropical Malay Peninsula for 30 days. We found that in situ precipitation values were markedly overestimated by GSMaP (34.9-67.5%) and POWER (180.5-289.2%), and the possible reasons are discussed. Nonetheless, we conclude that GSMaP remains the best hope for smallholder farmers and its dataset can still be used under the precaution of error margins determined by the practical method described herein.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
Fulltext Agro-climatic sensitivity analysis for sustainable crop diversification; the case of Proso millet (Panicum miliaceum L.)

Wimalasiri EM, Ashfold MJ, Jahanshiri E, Walker S, Azam-Ali SN, Karunaratne AS

PLoS One, 2023;18(3):e0283298.
PMID: 36952502 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283298

Current agricultural production depends on very limited species grown as monocultures that are highly vulnerable to climate change, presenting a threat to the sustainability of agri-food systems. However, many hundreds of neglected crop species have the potential to cater to the challenges of climate change by means of resilience to adverse climate conditions. Proso millet (Panicum miliaceum L.), one of the underutilised minor millets grown as a rainfed subsistence crop, was selected in this study as an exemplary climate-resilient crop. Using a previously calibrated version of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), the sensitivity of the crop to changes in temperature and precipitation was studied using the protocol of the Coordinated Climate Crop Modelling Project (C3MP). The future (2040-2069) production was simulated using bias-corrected climate data from 20 general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. According to the C3MP analysis, we found a 1°C increment of temperature decreased the yield by 5-10% at zero rainfall change. However, Proso millet yields increased by 5% within a restricted climate change space of up to 2°C of warming with increased rainfall. Simulated future climate yields were lower than the simulated yields under the baseline climate of the 1980-2009 period (mean 1707 kg ha-1) under both RCP4.5 (-7.3%) and RCP8.5 (-16.6%) though these changes were not significantly (p > 0.05) different from the baseline yields. Proso millet is currently cultivated in limited areas of Sri Lanka, but our yield mapping shows the potential for expansion of the crop to new areas under both current and future climates. The results of the study, indicating minor impacts from projected climate change, reveal that Proso millet is an excellent candidate for low-input farming systems under changing climate. More generally, through this study, a framework that can be used to assess the climate sensitivity of underutilized crops was also developed.

Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change

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