Displaying publications 161 - 180 of 442 in total

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  1. Masood M, Aggarwal A, Reidpath DD
    BMC Public Health, 2019 Sep 03;19(1):1212.
    PMID: 31481044 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-019-7536-0
    BACKGROUND: To investigate the association between national culture and national BMI in 53 low-middle- and high-income countries.

    METHODS: Data from World Health Survey conducted in 2002-2004 in low-middle- and high-income countries were used. Participants aged 18 years and over were selected using multistage, stratified cluster sampling. BMI was used as an outcome variable. Culture of the countries was measured using Hofstede's cultural dimensions: Uncertainty avoidance, individualism, Power Distance and masculinity. The potential determinants of individual-level BMI were participants' sex, age, marital status, education, occupation as well as household-wealth and location (rural/urban) at the individual-level. The country-level factors used were average national income (GNI-PPP), income inequality (Gini-index) and Hofstede's cultural dimensions. A two-level random-intercepts and fixed-slopes model structure with individuals nested within countries were fitted, treating BMI as a continuous outcome variable.

    RESULTS: A sample of 156,192 people from 53 countries was included in this analysis. The design-based (weighted) mean BMI (SE) in these 53 countries was 23.95(0.08). Uncertainty avoidance (UAI) and individualism (IDV) were significantly associated with BMI, showing that people in more individualistic or high uncertainty avoidance countries had higher BMI than collectivist or low uncertainty avoidance ones. This model explained that one unit increase in UAI or IDV was associated with 0.03 unit increase in BMI. Power distance and masculinity were not associated with BMI of the people. National level Income was also significantly associated with individual-level BMI.

    CONCLUSION: National culture has a substantial association with BMI of the individuals in the country. This association is important for understanding the pattern of obesity or overweight across different cultures and countries. It is also important to recognise the importance of the association of culture and BMI in developing public health interventions to reduce obesity or overweight.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health/statistics & numerical data*
  2. Polley L
    Int J Parasitol, 2005 Oct;35(11-12):1279-94.
    PMID: 16168994
    Wildlife are now recognised as an important source of emerging human pathogens, including parasites. This paper discusses the linkages between wildlife, people, zoonotic parasites and the ecosystems in which they co-exist, revisits definitions for 'emerging' and 're-emerging', and lists zoonotic parasites that can be acquired from wildlife including, for some, estimates of the associated global human health burdens. The paper also introduces the concepts of 'parasite webs' and 'parasite flow', provides a context for parasites, relative to other infectious agents, as causes of emerging human disease, and discusses drivers of disease emergence and re-emergence, especially changes in biodiversity and climate. Angiostrongylus cantonensis in the Caribbean and the southern United States, Baylisascaris procyonis in California and Georgia, Plasmodium knowlesi in Sarawak, Malaysia, Human African Trypanosomiasis, Sarcoptes scabiei in carnivores, and Cryptosporidium, Giardia and Toxoplasma in marine ecosystems are presented as examples of wildlife-derived zoonotic parasites of particular recent interest. An ecological approach to disease is promoted, as is a need for an increased profile for this approach in undergraduate and graduate education in the health sciences. Synergy among scientists and disciplines is identified as critical for the study of parasites and parasitic disease in wildlife populations. Recent advances in techniques for the investigation of parasite fauna of wildlife are presented and monitoring and surveillance systems for wildlife disease are discussed. Some of the limitations inherent in predictions for the emergence and re-emergence of infection and disease associated with zoonotic parasites of wildlife are identified. The importance of public awareness and public education in the prevention and control of emerging and re-emerging zoonotic infection and disease are emphasised. Finally, some thoughts for the future are presented.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health*
  3. Ramsay R, Nashat NH, Thuraisingham C, Andrades M, Ng V, Cabezas-Escobar CE, et al.
    Educ Prim Care, 2021 01;32(1):2-5.
    PMID: 33295252 DOI: 10.1080/14739879.2020.1851147
    This article sets out to highlight the challenges and opportunities for medical education in primary care realised during the COVID-19 pandemic and now being enacted globally. The themes were originally presented during a webinar involving educationalists from around the world and are subsequently discussed by members of the WONCA working party for education. The article recognises the importance of utilising diversity, addressing inequity and responding to the priority health needs of the community through socially accountable practice. The well-being of educators and learners is identified as priority in response to the ongoing global pandemic. Finally, we imagine a new era for medical education drawing on global connection and shared resources to create a strong community of practice.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health*
  4. Hafner M, Yerushalmi E, Stepanek M, Phillips W, Pollard J, Deshpande A, et al.
    Br J Sports Med, 2020 Dec;54(24):1482-1487.
    PMID: 33239354 DOI: 10.1136/bjsports-2020-102590
    OBJECTIVES: We assess the potential benefits of increased physical activity for the global economy for 23 countries and the rest of the world from 2020 to 2050. The main factors taken into account in the economic assessment are excess mortality and lower productivity.

    METHODS: This study links three methodologies. First, we estimate the association between physical inactivity and workplace productivity using multivariable regression models with proprietary data on 120 143 individuals in the UK and six Asian countries (Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Sri Lanka). Second, we analyse the association between physical activity and mortality risk through a meta-regression analysis with data from 74 prior studies with global coverage. Finally, the estimated effects are combined in a computable general equilibrium macroeconomic model to project the economic benefits of physical activity over time.

    RESULTS: Doing at least 150 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per week, as per lower limit of the range recommended by the 2020 WHO guidelines, would lead to an increase in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.15%-0.24% per year by 2050, worth up to US$314-446 billion per year and US$6.0-8.6 trillion cumulatively over the 30-year projection horizon (in 2019 prices). The results vary by country due to differences in baseline levels of physical activity and GDP per capita.

    CONCLUSIONS: Increasing physical activity in the population would lead to reduction in working-age mortality and morbidity and an increase in productivity, particularly through lower presenteeism, leading to substantial economic gains for the global economy.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health/economics*
  5. Mahadeva S, Goh KL
    World J Gastroenterol, 2006 May 07;12(17):2661-6.
    PMID: 16718749 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v12.i17.2661
    Dyspepsia refers to group of upper gastrointestinal symptoms that occur commonly in adults. Dyspepsia is known to result from organic causes, but the majority of patients suffer from non-ulcer or functional dyspepsia. Epidemiological data from population-based studies of various geographical locations have been reviewed, as they provide more realistic information. Population-based studies on true functional dyspepsia (FD) are few, due to the logistic difficulties of excluding structural disease in large numbers of people. Globally, the prevalence of uninvestigated dyspepsia (UD) varies between 7%-45%, depending on definition used and geographical location, whilst the prevalence of FD has been noted to vary between 11%-29.2%. Risk factors for FD have been shown to include females and underlying psychological disturbances, whilst environmental/ lifestyle habits such as poor socio-economic status, smoking, increased caffeine intake and ingestion of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs appear to be more relevant to UD. It is clear that dyspepsia and FD in particular are common conditions globally, affecting most populations, regardless of location.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health*
  6. Hosken FP
    Int J Health Serv, 1981;11(3):415-30.
    PMID: 7298255
    Extensive research and field work have established that more than 74 million women and female children are mutilated by female genital operations in Africa alone. The operations are also practiced in many parts of the Middle East and, with Moslemization, were introduced into Indonesia and Malaysia where they are preformed at the present time in a less damaging form. This paper lists the countries where instances of excision and infibulation have been reported and includes case reports from Sudan, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Nigeria, Mali, Upper Volta, and Senegal. The ethical issues posed by genital mutilation are also discussed.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health*
  7. Heymann DL
    J Public Health Policy, 2005 Apr;26(1):133-9.
    PMID: 15906882
    The microbes that cause infectious diseases are complex, dynamic, and constantly evolving. They reproduce rapidly, mutate frequently, breach species barriers, adapt with relative ease to new hosts and new environments, and develop resistance to the drugs used to treat them. In their article "Meeting the challenge of epidemic infectious diseases outbreaks: an agenda for research", Kai-Lit Phua and Lai Kah Lee clearly demonstrate how social, behavioural and environmental factors, linked to a host of human activities, have accelerated and amplified these natural phenomena. By reviewing published and non-published information about outbreaks of Nipah virus in Malaysia, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza in Asia, and the HIV pandemic, they provide a series of examples that demonstrate the various social, behavioural and environmental factors of these recent infectious disease outbreaks. They then analyse some of these same determinants in important historical epidemics and pandemics such as plague in medieval Europe, and conclude that it is important to better understand the social conditions that facilitate the appearance of diseases outbreaks in order to determine why and how societies react to outbreaks and their impact on different population groups.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health*
  8. Sperber AD, Bangdiwala SI, Drossman DA, Ghoshal UC, Simren M, Tack J, et al.
    Gastroenterology, 2021 01;160(1):99-114.e3.
    PMID: 32294476 DOI: 10.1053/j.gastro.2020.04.014
    BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGIDs), now called disorders of gut-brain interaction, have major economic effects on health care systems and adversely affect quality of life, little is known about their global prevalence and distribution. We investigated the prevalence of and factors associated with 22 FGIDs, in 33 countries on 6 continents.

    METHODS: Data were collected via the Internet in 24 countries, personal interviews in 7 countries, and both in 2 countries, using the Rome IV diagnostic questionnaire, Rome III irritable bowel syndrome questions, and 80 items to identify variables associated with FGIDs. Data collection methods differed for Internet and household groups, so data analyses were conducted and reported separately.

    RESULTS: Among the 73,076 adult respondents (49.5% women), diagnostic criteria were met for at least 1 FGID by 40.3% persons who completed the Internet surveys (95% confidence interval [CI], 39.9-40.7) and 20.7% of persons who completed the household surveys (95% CI, 20.2-21.3). FGIDs were more prevalent among women than men, based on responses to the Internet survey (odds ratio, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.6-1.7) and household survey (odds ratio, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.3-1.4). FGIDs were associated with lower quality of life and more frequent doctor visits. Proportions of subjects with irritable bowel syndrome were lower when the Rome IV criteria were used, compared with the Rome III criteria, in the Internet survey (4.1% vs 10.1%) and household survey (1.5% vs 3.5%).

    CONCLUSIONS: In a large-scale multinational study, we found that more than 40% of persons worldwide have FGIDs, which affect quality of life and health care use. Although the absolute prevalence was higher among Internet respondents, similar trends and relative distributions were found in people who completed Internet vs personal interviews.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health*
  9. Lynch JL, Barrientos-Pérez M, Hafez M, Jalaludin MY, Kovarenko M, Rao PV, et al.
    Ann Nutr Metab, 2020;76(5):289-296.
    PMID: 32980841 DOI: 10.1159/000510499
    BACKGROUND: With increased awareness of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in children and adolescents, an overview of country-specific differences in epidemiology data is needed to develop a global picture of the disease development.

    SUMMARY: This study examined country-specific prevalence and incidence data of youth-onset T2D published between 2008 and 2019, and searched for national guidelines to expand the understanding of country-specific similarities and differences. Of the 1,190 articles and 17 congress abstracts identified, 58 were included in this review. Our search found the highest reported prevalence rates of youth-onset T2D in China (520 cases/100,000 people) and the USA (212 cases/100,000) and lowest in Denmark (0.6 cases/100,000) and Ireland (1.2 cases/100,000). However, the highest incidence rates were reported in Taiwan (63 cases/100,000) and the UK (33.2 cases/100,000), with the lowest in Fiji (0.43 cases/100,000) and Austria (0.6 cases/100,000). These differences in epidemiology data may be partly explained by variations in the diagnostic criteria used within studies, screening recommendations within national guidelines and race/ethnicity within countries. Key Messages: Our study suggests that published country-specific epidemiology data for youth-onset T2D are varied and scant, and often with reporting inconsistencies. Finding optimal diagnostic criteria and screening strategies for this disease should be of high interest to every country.

    TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health/statistics & numerical data*
  10. Rahman MA, Islam SMS, Tungpunkom P, Sultana F, Alif SM, Banik B, et al.
    Global Health, 2021 10 01;17(1):117.
    PMID: 34598720 DOI: 10.1186/s12992-021-00768-3
    BACKGROUND: The current pandemic of COVID-19 impacted the psychological wellbeing of populations globally.

    OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine the extent and identify factors associated with psychological distress, fear of COVID-19 and coping.

    METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study across 17 countries during Jun-2020 to Jan-2021. Levels of psychological distress (Kessler Psychological Distress Scale), fear of COVID-19 (Fear of COVID-19 Scale), and coping (Brief Resilient Coping Scale) were assessed.

    RESULTS: A total of 8,559 people participated; mean age (±SD) was 33(±13) years, 64% were females and 40% self-identified as frontline workers. More than two-thirds (69%) experienced moderate-to-very high levels of psychological distress, which was 46% in Thailand and 91% in Egypt. A quarter (24%) had high levels of fear of COVID-19, which was as low as 9% in Libya and as high as 38% in Bangladesh. More than half (57%) exhibited medium to high resilient coping; the lowest prevalence (3%) was reported in Australia and the highest (72%) in Syria. Being female (AOR 1.31 [95% CIs 1.09-1.57]), perceived distress due to change of employment status (1.56 [1.29-1.90]), comorbidity with mental health conditions (3.02 [1.20-7.60]) were associated with higher levels of psychological distress and fear. Doctors had higher psychological distress (1.43 [1.04-1.97]), but low levels of fear of COVID-19 (0.55 [0.41-0.76]); nurses had medium to high resilient coping (1.30 [1.03-1.65]).

    CONCLUSIONS: The extent of psychological distress, fear of COVID-19 and coping varied by country; however, we identified few higher risk groups who were more vulnerable than others. There is an urgent need to prioritise health and well-being of those people through well-designed intervention that may need to be tailored to meet country specific requirements.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health/statistics & numerical data*
  11. Stubbs B, Vancampfort D, Veronese N, Kahl KG, Mitchell AJ, Lin PY, et al.
    Psychol Med, 2017 Sep;47(12):2107-2117.
    PMID: 28374652 DOI: 10.1017/S0033291717000551
    BACKGROUND: Despite the known heightened risk and burden of various somatic diseases in people with depression, very little is known about physical health multimorbidity (i.e. two or more physical health co-morbidities) in individuals with depression. This study explored physical health multimorbidity in people with clinical depression, subsyndromal depression and brief depressive episode across 43 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
    METHOD: Cross-sectional, community-based data on 190 593 individuals from 43 LMICs recruited via the World Health Survey were analysed. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was done to assess the association between depression and physical multimorbidity.
    RESULTS: Overall, two, three and four or more physical health conditions were present in 7.4, 2.4 and 0.9% of non-depressive individuals compared with 17.7, 9.1 and 4.9% among people with any depressive episode, respectively. Compared with those with no depression, subsyndromal depression, brief depressive episode and depressive episode were significantly associated with 2.62, 2.14 and 3.44 times higher odds for multimorbidity, respectively. A significant positive association between multimorbidity and any depression was observed across 42 of the 43 countries, with particularly high odds ratios (ORs) in China (OR 8.84), Laos (OR 5.08), Ethiopia (OR 4.99), the Philippines (OR 4.81) and Malaysia (OR 4.58). The pooled OR for multimorbidity and depression estimated by meta-analysis across 43 countries was 3.26 (95% confident interval 2.98-3.57).
    CONCLUSIONS: Our large multinational study demonstrates that physical health multimorbidity is increased across the depression spectrum. Public health interventions are required to address this global health problem.
    Study name: World Health Survey (Malaysia is a study site)
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health/statistics & numerical data*
  12. Dokainish H, Teo K, Zhu J, Roy A, AlHabib KF, ElSayed A, et al.
    Lancet Glob Health, 2017 07;5(7):e665-e672.
    PMID: 28476564 DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30196-1
    BACKGROUND: Most data on mortality and prognostic factors in patients with heart failure come from North America and Europe, with little information from other regions. Here, in the International Congestive Heart Failure (INTER-CHF) study, we aimed to measure mortality at 1 year in patients with heart failure in Africa, China, India, the Middle East, southeast Asia and South America; we also explored demographic, clinical, and socioeconomic variables associated with mortality.

    METHODS: We enrolled consecutive patients with heart failure (3695 [66%] clinic outpatients, 2105 [34%] hospital in patients) from 108 centres in six geographical regions. We recorded baseline demographic and clinical characteristics and followed up patients at 6 months and 1 year from enrolment to record symptoms, medications, and outcomes. Time to death was studied with Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for demographic and clinical variables, medications, socioeconomic variables, and region. We used the explained risk statistic to calculate the relative contribution of each level of adjustment to the risk of death.

    FINDINGS: We enrolled 5823 patients within 1 year (with 98% follow-up). Overall mortality was 16·5%: highest in Africa (34%) and India (23%), intermediate in southeast Asia (15%), and lowest in China (7%), South America (9%), and the Middle East (9%). Regional differences persisted after multivariable adjustment. Independent predictors of mortality included cardiac variables (New York Heart Association Functional Class III or IV, previous admission for heart failure, and valve disease) and non-cardiac variables (body-mass index, chronic kidney disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). 46% of mortality risk was explained by multivariable modelling with these variables; however, the remainder was unexplained.

    INTERPRETATION: Marked regional differences in mortality in patients with heart failure persisted after multivariable adjustment for cardiac and non-cardiac factors. Therefore, variations in mortality between regions could be the result of health-care infrastructure, quality and access, or environmental and genetic factors. Further studies in large, global cohorts are needed.

    FUNDING: The study was supported by Novartis.

    Study site: Multination
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health*
  13. Tingle J
    Br J Nurs, 2017 May 25;26(10):572-573.
    PMID: 28541112 DOI: 10.12968/bjon.2017.26.10.572
    John Tingle, Reader in Health Law at Nottingham Trent University, and Jen Minford, Junior Doctor Co-ordinator, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, discuss initiatives presented at a global summit on patient safety.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health*
  14. Brouwer E, Driessen E, Mamat NH, Nadarajah VD, Somodi K, Frambach J
    Med Teach, 2020 02;42(2):221-227.
    PMID: 31630598 DOI: 10.1080/0142159X.2019.1676885
    Introduction: Medical schools increasingly offer curricula that specifically aim to prepare students for an international medical career. This is challenging as well as controversial: curriculum designers must balance specific local healthcare requirements with global health competencies doctors need in our globalised world. By investigating how international medical programme designers experience this balancing act, this study aims to contribute insights to the debate on local versus global medical education.Methods: We conducted a multi-centre instrumental case study across three universities with international medical programmes in three countries. The study involved 26 semi-structured interviews with key curriculum designers recruited through purposive sampling. Additionally, we performed a curriculum document analysis. Data were thematically analysed within a multidisciplinary team.Results: Participants described two profiles of international medical programme graduates: 'a global physician', equipped with specific competencies for international practice, and 'a universal professional', an overall high-level graduate fit for future practice anywhere. These perspectives presented different curriculum design challenges.Conclusions: International medical programmes teach us how we can rethink graduate profiles in a globalising world. Yet, educational standardisation poses risks and securing equity in global health education is challenging, as is preparing students to be adaptable to the requirements of a rapidly changing future local healthcare context.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health/education*
  15. Stubbs B, Koyanagi A, Schuch FB, Firth J, Rosenbaum S, Veronese N, et al.
    Acta Psychiatr Scand, 2016 12;134(6):546-556.
    PMID: 27704532 DOI: 10.1111/acps.12654
    OBJECTIVE: Physical activity (PA) is good for health, yet several small-scale studies have suggested that depression is associated with low PA. A paucity of nationally representative studies investigating this relationship exists, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study explored the global association of PA with depression and its mediating factors.
    METHOD: Participants from 36 LMICs from the World Health Survey were included. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were undertaken exploring the relationship between PA and depression.
    RESULTS: Across 178 867 people (mean ± SD age = 36.2 ± 13.5 years; 49.9% male), the prevalence of depression and the prevalence of low PA were 6.6% and 16.8% respectively. The prevalence of low PA was significantly higher among those with depression vs. no depression (26.0% vs. 15.8%, P < 0.0001). In the adjusted model, depression was associated with higher odds for low PA (OR = 1.42; 95% CI = 1.24-1.63). Mediation analyses demonstrated that low PA among people with depression was explained by mobility limitations (40.3%), pain and discomfort (35.8%), disruptions in sleep and energy (25.2%), cognition (19.4%) and vision (10.9%).
    CONCLUSION: Individuals with depression engage in lower levels of PA in LMICs. Future longitudinal research is warranted to better understand the relationships observed.
    Study name: World Health Survey (Malaysia is a study site)
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health/statistics & numerical data*
  16. Hosseinpoor AR, Parker LA, Tursan d'Espaignet E, Chatterji S
    PLoS One, 2011;6(5):e20331.
    PMID: 21655299 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0020331
    INTRODUCTION: Tobacco smoking is a leading cause of premature death and disability, and over 80% of the world's smokers live in low- or middle-income countries. The objective of this study is to assess demographic and socioeconomic determinants of current smoking in low- and middle-income countries.
    METHODS: We used data, from the World Health Survey in 48 low-income and middle-income countries, to explore the impact of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the current smoking status of respondents. The data from these surveys provided information on 213,807 respondents aged 18 years or above that were divided into 4 pooled datasets according to their sex and country income group. The overall proportion of current smokers, as well as the proportion by each relevant demographic and socioeconomic determinant, was calculated within each of the pooled datasets, and multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between current smoking and these determinants.
    RESULTS: The odds of smoking were not equal in all demographic or socioeconomic groups. Some factors were fairly stable across the four datasets studied: for example, individuals were more likely to smoke if they had little or no education, regardless of if they were male or female, or lived in a low or a middle income country. Nevertheless, other factors, notably age and wealth, showed a differential effect on smoking by sex or country income level. While women in the low-income country group were twice as likely to smoke if they were in the lowest wealth quintile compared with the highest, the association was absent in the middle-income country group.
    CONCLUSION: Information on how smoking is distributed among low- or middle-income countries will allow policy makers to tailor future policies, and target the most vulnerable populations.
    Study name: World Health Survey (Malaysia is a study site)
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health*
  17. Shearer FM, Longbottom J, Browne AJ, Pigott DM, Brady OJ, Kraemer MUG, et al.
    Lancet Glob Health, 2018 03;6(3):e270-e278.
    PMID: 29398634 DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30024-X
    BACKGROUND: Yellow fever cases are under-reported and the exact distribution of the disease is unknown. An effective vaccine is available but more information is needed about which populations within risk zones should be targeted to implement interventions. Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Brazil, coupled with the global expansion of the range of its main urban vector, Aedes aegypti, suggest that yellow fever has the propensity to spread further internationally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease's contemporary distribution and potential for spread into new areas to help inform optimal control and prevention strategies.

    METHODS: We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide.

    FINDINGS: Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vaccination coverage in 2016 was estimated to be substantially less than the recommended threshold to prevent outbreaks. Overall, we estimated that vaccination coverage levels achieved by 2016 avert between 94 336 and 118 500 cases of yellow fever annually within risk zones, on the basis of conservative and optimistic vaccination scenarios. The areas outside at-risk regions with predicted high receptivity to yellow fever transmission (eg, parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) were less extensive than the distribution of the main urban vector, A aegypti, with low receptivity to yellow fever transmission in southern China, where A aegypti is known to occur.

    INTERPRETATION: Our results provide the evidence base for targeting vaccination campaigns within risk zones, as well as emphasising their high effectiveness. Our study highlights areas where public health authorities should be most vigilant for potential spread or importation events.

    FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health/statistics & numerical data*
  18. Maaroufi A, Vince A, Himatt SM, Mohamed R, Fung J, Opare-Sem O, et al.
    J Viral Hepat, 2017 10;24 Suppl 2:8-24.
    PMID: 29105285 DOI: 10.1111/jvh.12762
    Due to the introduction of newer, more efficacious treatment options, there is a pressing need for policy makers and public health officials to develop or adapt national hepatitis C virus (HCV) control strategies to the changing epidemiological landscape. To do so, detailed, country-specific data are needed to characterize the burden of chronic HCV infection. In this study of 17 countries, a literature review of published and unpublished data on HCV prevalence, viraemia, genotype, age and gender distribution, liver transplants and diagnosis and treatment rates was conducted, and inputs were validated by expert consensus in each country. Viraemic prevalence in this study ranged from 0.2% in Hong Kong to 2.4% in Taiwan, while the largest viraemic populations were in Nigeria (2 597 000 cases) and Taiwan (569 000 cases). Diagnosis, treatment and liver transplant rates varied widely across the countries included in this analysis, as did the availability of reliable data. Addressing data gaps will be critical for the development of future strategies to manage and minimize the disease burden of hepatitis C.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health*
  19. Chan HLY, Chen CJ, Omede O, Al Qamish J, Al Naamani K, Bane A, et al.
    J Viral Hepat, 2017 10;24 Suppl 2:25-43.
    PMID: 29105283 DOI: 10.1111/jvh.12760
    Factors influencing the morbidity and mortality associated with viremic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection change over time and place, making it difficult to compare reported estimates. Models were developed for 17 countries (Bahrain, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Qatar and Taiwan) to quantify and characterize the viremic population as well as forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2015 to 2030. Model inputs were agreed upon through expert consensus, and a standardized methodology was followed to allow for comparison across countries. The viremic prevalence is expected to remain constant or decline in all but four countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Jordan and Oman); however, HCV-related morbidity and mortality will increase in all countries except Qatar and Taiwan. In Qatar, the high-treatment rate will contribute to a reduction in total cases and HCV-related morbidity by 2030. In the remaining countries, however, the current treatment paradigm will be insufficient to achieve large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality.
    Matched MeSH terms: Global Health*
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