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Fulltext Topography shapes the structure, composition and function of tropical forest landscapes

Jucker T, Bongalov B, Burslem DFRP, Nilus R, Dalponte M, Lewis SL, et al.

Ecol Lett, 2018 07;21(7):989-1000.
PMID: 29659115 DOI: 10.1111/ele.12964

Topography is a key driver of tropical forest structure and composition, as it constrains local nutrient and hydraulic conditions within which trees grow. Yet, we do not fully understand how changes in forest physiognomy driven by topography impact other emergent properties of forests, such as their aboveground carbon density (ACD). Working in Borneo - at a site where 70-m-tall forests in alluvial valleys rapidly transition to stunted heath forests on nutrient-depleted dip slopes - we combined field data with airborne laser scanning and hyperspectral imaging to characterise how topography shapes the vertical structure, wood density, diversity and ACD of nearly 15 km2 of old-growth forest. We found that subtle differences in elevation - which control soil chemistry and hydrology - profoundly influenced the structure, composition and diversity of the canopy. Capturing these processes was critical to explaining landscape-scale heterogeneity in ACD, highlighting how emerging remote sensing technologies can provide new insights into long-standing ecological questions.
Fulltext Reconciling the contribution of environmental and stochastic structuring of tropical forest diversity through the lens of imaging spectroscopy

Bongalov B, Burslem DFRP, Jucker T, Thompson SED, Rosindell J, Swinfield T, et al.

Ecol Lett, 2019 Oct;22(10):1608-1619.
PMID: 31347263 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13357

Both niche and stochastic dispersal processes structure the extraordinary diversity of tropical plants, but determining their relative contributions has proven challenging. We address this question using airborne imaging spectroscopy to estimate canopy β-diversity for an extensive region of a Bornean rainforest and challenge these data with models incorporating niches and dispersal. We show that remotely sensed and field-derived estimates of pairwise dissimilarity in community composition are closely matched, proving the applicability of imaging spectroscopy to provide β-diversity data for entire landscapes of over 1000 ha containing contrasting forest types. Our model reproduces the empirical data well and shows that the ecological processes maintaining tropical forest diversity are scale dependent. Patterns of β-diversity are shaped by stochastic dispersal processes acting locally whilst environmental processes act over a wider range of scales.
The establishment of a multiple myeloma clinical registry in the Asia-Pacific region: The Asia-Pacific Myeloma and Related Diseases Registry (APAC MRDR)

Aoki N, Chen PY, Chen W, Chng WJ, Gan GG, Goh YT, et al.

BMC Med Res Methodol, 2024 May 02;24(1):102.
PMID: 38698331 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02227-0

BACKGROUND: Multiple myeloma (MM) is the second most common haematological cancer worldwide. Along with related diseases including monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), plasma cell leukaemia (PCL) and plasmacytoma, MM incidence is rising, yet it remains incurable and represents a significant disease burden. Clinical registries can provide important information on management and outcomes, and are vital platforms for clinical trials and other research. The Asia-Pacific Myeloma and Related Diseases Registry (APAC MRDR) was developed to monitor and explore variation in epidemiology, treatment regimens and their impact on clinical outcomes across this region. Here we describe the registry's design and development, initial data, progress and future plans.
METHODS: The APAC MRDR was established in 2018 as a multicentre collaboration across the Asia-Pacific, collecting prospective data on patients newly diagnosed with MM, MGUS, PCL and plasmacytoma in Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan, with China recently joining. Development of the registry required a multidisciplinary team of clinicians, researchers, legal and information technology support, and financial resources, as well as local clinical context from key opinion leaders in the APAC region. Written informed consent is obtained and data are routinely collected throughout treatment by hospital staff. Data are stored securely, meeting all local privacy and ethics requirements. Data were collected from October 2018 to March 2024.
RESULTS: Over 1700 patients from 24 hospitals have been enrolled onto the APAC MRDR to date, with the majority (86%) being newly diagnosed with MM. Bortezomib with an immunomodulatory drug was most frequently used in first-line MM therapy, and lenalidomide-based therapy was most common in second-line. Establishment and implementation challenges include regulatory and a range of operational issues.
CONCLUSION: The APAC MRDR is providing 'real-world' data to participating sites, clinicians and policy-makers to explore factors influencing outcomes and survival, and to support high quality studies. It is already a valuable resource that will continue to grow and support research and clinical collaboration in MM and related diseases across the APAC region.
Fulltext Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests

McDowell N, Allen CD, Anderson-Teixeira K, Brando P, Brienen R, Chambers J, et al.

New Phytol, 2018 08;219(3):851-869.
PMID: 29451313 DOI: 10.1111/nph.15027

Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests (MTFs) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO2 fertilization-induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTFs against large-scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTFs. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. We outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change.
Fulltext Long-term carbon sink in Borneo's forests halted by drought and vulnerable to edge effects

Qie L, Lewis SL, Sullivan MJP, Lopez-Gonzalez G, Pickavance GC, Sunderland T, et al.

Nat Commun, 2017 12 19;8(1):1966.
PMID: 29259276 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-01997-0

Less than half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere. While carbon balance models imply large carbon uptake in tropical forests, direct on-the-ground observations are still lacking in Southeast Asia. Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha-1 per year (95% CI 0.14-0.72, mean period 1988-2010) above-ground live biomass. These results closely match those from African and Amazonian plot networks, suggesting that the world's remaining intact tropical forests are now en masse out-of-equilibrium. Although both pan-tropical and long-term, the sink in remaining intact forests appears vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Across Borneo the 1997-1998 El Niño drought temporarily halted the carbon sink by increasing tree mortality, while fragmentation persistently offset the sink and turned many edge-affected forests into a carbon source to the atmosphere.
Fulltext Author Correction: Long-term carbon sink in Borneo's forests halted by drought and vulnerable to edges

Qie L, Lewis SL, Sullivan MJP, Lopez-Gonzalez G, Pickavance GC, Sunderland T, et al.

Nat Commun, 2018 01 19;9(1):342.
PMID: 29352254 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-02920-x

The original version of this Article contained an error in the third sentence of the abstract and incorrectly read "Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha-1 year-1 (95% CI 0.14-0.72, mean period 1988-2010) above-ground live biomass", rather than the correct "Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha-1 year-1 (95% CI 0.14-0.72, mean period 1988-2010) in above-ground live biomass carbon". This has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.
Fulltext Diversity and carbon storage across the tropical forest biome

Sullivan MJ, Talbot J, Lewis SL, Phillips OL, Qie L, Begne SK, et al.

Sci Rep, 2017 01 17;7:39102.
PMID: 28094794 DOI: 10.1038/srep39102

Tropical forests are global centres of biodiversity and carbon storage. Many tropical countries aspire to protect forest to fulfil biodiversity and climate mitigation policy targets, but the conservation strategies needed to achieve these two functions depend critically on the tropical forest tree diversity-carbon storage relationship. Assessing this relationship is challenging due to the scarcity of inventories where carbon stocks in aboveground biomass and species identifications have been simultaneously and robustly quantified. Here, we compile a unique pan-tropical dataset of 360 plots located in structurally intact old-growth closed-canopy forest, surveyed using standardised methods, allowing a multi-scale evaluation of diversity-carbon relationships in tropical forests. Diversity-carbon relationships among all plots at 1 ha scale across the tropics are absent, and within continents are either weak (Asia) or absent (Amazonia, Africa). A weak positive relationship is detectable within 1 ha plots, indicating that diversity effects in tropical forests may be scale dependent. The absence of clear diversity-carbon relationships at scales relevant to conservation planning means that carbon-centred conservation strategies will inevitably miss many high diversity ecosystems. As tropical forests can have any combination of tree diversity and carbon stocks both require explicit consideration when optimising policies to manage tropical carbon and biodiversity.
Fulltext The Forest Observation System, building a global reference dataset for remote sensing of forest biomass

Schepaschenko D, Chave J, Phillips OL, Lewis SL, Davies SJ, Réjou-Méchain M, et al.

Sci Data, 2019 10 10;6(1):198.
PMID: 31601817 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-019-0196-1

Forest biomass is an essential indicator for monitoring the Earth's ecosystems and climate. It is a critical input to greenhouse gas accounting, estimation of carbon losses and forest degradation, assessment of renewable energy potential, and for developing climate change mitigation policies such as REDD+, among others. Wall-to-wall mapping of aboveground biomass (AGB) is now possible with satellite remote sensing (RS). However, RS methods require extant, up-to-date, reliable, representative and comparable in situ data for calibration and validation. Here, we present the Forest Observation System (FOS) initiative, an international cooperation to establish and maintain a global in situ forest biomass database. AGB and canopy height estimates with their associated uncertainties are derived at a 0.25 ha scale from field measurements made in permanent research plots across the world's forests. All plot estimates are geolocated and have a size that allows for direct comparison with many RS measurements. The FOS offers the potential to improve the accuracy of RS-based biomass products while developing new synergies between the RS and ground-based ecosystem research communities.
Fulltext Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests

Sullivan MJP, Lewis SL, Affum-Baffoe K, Castilho C, Costa F, Sanchez AC, et al.

Science, 2020 05 22;368(6493):869-874.
PMID: 32439789 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw7578

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.
Fulltext Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions

Delavaux CS, Crowther TW, Zohner CM, Robmann NM, Lauber T, van den Hoogen J, et al.

Nature, 2023 Sep;621(7980):773-781.
PMID: 37612513 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06440-7

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions.
Fulltext Author Correction: Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions

Delavaux CS, Crowther TW, Zohner CM, Robmann NM, Lauber T, van den Hoogen J, et al.

Nature, 2023 Oct;622(7982):E2.
PMID: 37752352 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06654-9
Fulltext Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Mo L, Zohner CM, Reich PB, Liang J, de Miguel S, Nabuurs GJ, et al.

Nature, 2023 Dec;624(7990):92-101.
PMID: 37957399 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.
Fulltext The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit

Ma H, Crowther TW, Mo L, Maynard DS, Renner SS, van den Hoogen J, et al.

Nat Plants, 2023 Nov;9(11):1795-1809.
PMID: 37872262 DOI: 10.1038/s41477-023-01543-5

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling.
Fulltext Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Cooper DLM, Lewis SL, Sullivan MJP, Prado PI, Ter Steege H, Barbier N, et al.

Nature, 2024 Jan;625(7996):728-734.
PMID: 38200314 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06820-z

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.

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