OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of antimalarial MDA on population asexual parasitaemia prevalence, parasitaemia incidence, gametocytaemia prevalence, anaemia prevalence, mortality and MDA-associated adverse events.
SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Infectious Disease Group Specialized Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE+, EMBASE, to February 2013. We also searched CABS Abstracts, LILACS, reference lists, and recent conference proceedings.
SELECTION CRITERIA: Cluster-randomized trials and non-randomized controlled studies comparing therapeutic MDA versus placebo or no MDA, and uncontrolled before-and-after studies comparing post-MDA to baseline data were selected. Studies administering intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) to sub-populations (for example, pregnant women, children or infants) were excluded.
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently reviewed studies for inclusion, extracted data and assessed risk of bias. Studies were stratified by study design and then subgrouped by endemicity, by co-administration of 8-aminoquinoline plus schizonticide drugs and by plasmodium species. The quality of evidence was assessed using the GRADE approach.
MAIN RESULTS: Two cluster-randomized trials, eight non-randomized controlled studies and 22 uncontrolled before-and-after studies are included in this review. Twenty-two studies (29 comparisons) compared MDA to placebo or no intervention of which two comparisons were conducted in areas of low endemicity (≤5%), 12 in areas of moderate endemicity (6-39%) and 15 in areas of high endemicity (≥ 40%). Ten studies evaluated MDA plus other vector control measures. The studies used a wide variety of MDA regimens incorporating different drugs, dosages, timings and numbers of MDA rounds. Many of the studies are now more than 30 years old. Areas of low endemicity (≤5%)Within the first month post-MDA, a single uncontrolled before-and-after study conducted in 1955 on a small Taiwanese island reported a much lower prevalence of parasitaemia following a single course of chloroquine compared to baseline (1 study, very low quality evidence). This lower parasite prevalence was still present after more than 12 months (one study, very low quality evidence). In addition, one cluster-randomized trial evaluating MDA in a low endemic setting reported zero episodes of parasitaemia at baseline, and throughout five months of follow-up in both the control and intervention arms (one study, very low quality evidence). Areas of moderate endemicity (6-39%)Within the first month post-MDA, the prevalence of parasitaemia was much lower in three non-randomized controlled studies from Kenya and India in the 1950s (RR 0.03, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.08, three studies, moderate quality evidence), and in three uncontrolled before-and-after studies conducted between 1954 and 1961 (RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.48, three studies,low quality evidence).The longest follow-up in these settings was four to six months. At this time point, the prevalence of parasitaemia remained substantially lower than controls in the two non-randomized controlled studies (RR 0.18, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.33, two studies, low quality evidence). In contrast, the two uncontrolled before-and-after studies found mixed results: one found no difference and one found a substantially higher prevalence compared to baseline (not pooled, two studies, very low quality evidence). Areas of high endemicity (≥40%)Within the first month post-MDA, the single cluster-randomized trial from the Gambia in 1999 found no significant difference in parasite prevalence (one study, low quality evidence). However, prevalence was much lower during the MDA programmes in three non-randomized controlled studies conducted in the 1960s and 1970s (RR 0.17, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.27, three studies, moderate quality evidence), and within one month of MDA in four uncontrolled before-and-after studies (RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.49, four studies,low quality evidence).Four trials reported changes in prevalence beyond three months. In the Gambia, the single cluster-randomized trial found no difference at five months (one trial, moderate quality evidence). The three uncontrolled before-and-after studies had mixed findings with large studies from Palestine and Cambodia showing sustained reductions at four months and 12 months, respectively, and a small study from Malaysia showing no difference after four to six months of follow-up (three studies,low quality evidence). 8-aminoquinolines We found no studies directly comparing MDA regimens that included 8-aminoquinolines with regimens that did not. In a crude subgroup analysis with a limited number of studies, we were unable to detect any evidence of additional benefit of primaquine in moderate- and high-transmission settings. Plasmodium species In studies that reported species-specific outcomes, the same interventions resulted in a larger impact on Plasmodium falciparum compared to P. vivax.
AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: MDA appears to reduce substantially the initial risk of malaria parasitaemia. However, few studies showed sustained impact beyond six months post-MDA, and those that did were conducted on small islands or in highland settings.To assess whether there is an impact of MDA on malaria transmission in the longer term requires more quasi experimental studies with the intention of elimination, especially in low- and moderate-transmission settings. These studies need to address any long-term outcomes, any potential barriers for community uptake, and contribution to the development of drug resistance.
METHODS: In this systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study, we searched PubMed, Ovid, and Web of Science for articles published from database inception until Sept 26, 2022, for prospective and retrospective cross-sectional studies that addressed serological chikungunya virus infection in any geographical region, age group, and population subgroup and for longitudinal prospective and retrospective cohort studies with data on chronic chikungunya or hospital admissions in people with chikungunya. We did a systematic review of studies on chikungunya seroprevalence and fitted catalytic models to each survey to estimate location-specific FOI (ie, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire chikungunya infection). We performed a meta-analysis to estimate the proportion of symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed chikungunya who had chronic chikungunya or were admitted to hospital following infection. We used a random-effects model to assess the relationship between chronic sequelae and follow-up length using linear regression. The systematic review protocol is registered online on PROSPERO, CRD42022363102.
FINDINGS: We identified 60 studies with data on seroprevalence and chronic chikungunya symptoms done across 76 locations in 38 countries, and classified 17 (22%) of 76 locations as endemic settings and 59 (78%) as epidemic settings. The global long-term median annual FOI was 0·007 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·003-0·010) and varied from 0·0001 (0·00004-0·0002) to 0·113 (0·07-0·20). The highest estimated median seroprevalence at age 10 years was in south Asia (8·0% [95% UI 6·5-9·6]), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (7·8% [4·9-14·6]), whereas median seroprevalence was lowest in the Middle East (1·0% [0·5-1·9]). We estimated that 51% (95% CI 45-58) of people with laboratory-confirmed symptomatic chikungunya had chronic disability after infection and 4% (3-5) were admitted to hospital following infection.
INTERPRETATION: We inferred subnational heterogeneity in long-term average annual FOI and transmission dynamics and identified both endemic and epidemic settings across different countries. Brazil, Ethiopia, Malaysia, and India included both endemic and epidemic settings. Long-term average annual FOI was higher in epidemic settings than endemic settings. However, long-term cumulative incidence of chikungunya can be similar between large outbreaks in epidemic settings with a high FOI and endemic settings with a relatively low FOI.
FUNDING: International Vaccine Institute.