RESULTS: Based on the MCDA and pig movement data, 14 index subdistricts with a high-risk of NiV emergence were identified. We found in our infectious network modeling that the infected subdistricts clustered in, or close to the central plain, within a range of 171 km from the source subdistricts. However, the virus may travel as far as 528.5 km (R0 = 5).
CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, the risk of NiV dissemination through pig movement networks in Thailand is low but not negligible. The risk areas identified in our study can help the veterinary authority to allocate financial and human resources to where preventive strategies, such as pig farm regionalization, are required and to contain outbreaks in a timely fashion once they occur.
METHODS: The pathogenic potential of HeV and both strains of NiV (Malaysia, Bangladesh) was assessed in cynomolgus monkeys and compared with henipavirus-infected historical control AGMs. Multiplex gene and protein expression assays were used to compare host responses.
RESULTS: In contrast to AGMs, in which henipaviruses cause severe and usually lethal disease, HeV and NiVs caused only mild or asymptomatic infections in macaques. All henipaviruses replicated in macaques with similar kinetics as in AGMs. Infection in macaques was associated with activation and predicted recruitment of cytotoxic CD8+ T cells, Th1 cells, IgM+ B cells, and plasma cells. Conversely, fatal outcome in AGMs was associated with aberrant innate immune signaling, complement dysregulation, Th2 skewing, and increased secretion of MCP-1.
CONCLUSION: The restriction factors identified in macaques can be harnessed for development of effective countermeasures against henipavirus disease.