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Predicting the geographical distributions of the macaque hosts and mosquito vectors of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in forested and non-forested areas

Moyes CL 1 , Shearer FM 2 , Huang Z 3 , Wiebe A 2 , Gibson HS 3 , Nijman V 4 Show all authors , Mohd-Azlan J 5 , Brodie JF 6 , Malaivijitnond S 7 , Linkie M 8 , Samejima H 9 , O'Brien TG 10 , Trainor CR 11 , Hamada Y 12 , Giordano AJ 13 , Kinnaird MF 10 , Elyazar IR 14 , Sinka ME 3 , Vythilingam I 15 , Bangs MJ 16 , Pigott DM 17 , Weiss DJ 3 , Golding N 2 , Hay SI 17

Affiliations 

  • 1 Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, The Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK. catherinemoyes@gmail.com
  • 2 Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, The Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK
  • 3 Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK
  • 4 Department of Social Sciences, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, OX1 0BP, UK
  • 5 Department of Zoology, Faculty of Resource Science and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, 94300, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, Malaysia
  • 6 Departments of Zoology and Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
  • 7 Primate Research Unit, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, 10330, Thailand
  • 8 Fauna & Flora International, Singapore, 247672, Singapore
  • 9 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Kamiyamaguchi 2108-11, Hayama-cho, 240-0115, Kanagawa, Japan
  • 10 Wildlife Conservation Society, Mpala Research Center, Nanyuki, 10400, Kenya
  • 11 Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Northern Territory, 0909, Australia
  • 12 Evolutionary Morphology Section, Primate Research Institute, Kyoto University, Inuyama, Japan
  • 13 Field Conservation Program, S.P.E.C.I.E.S., Ventura, CA, USA
  • 14 Eijkman-Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • 15 Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
  • 16 Department of Entomology, Faculty of Agriculture, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand
  • 17 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
Parasit Vectors, 2016 Apr 28;9:242.
PMID: 27125995 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-016-1527-0

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic pathogen, transmitted among macaques and to humans by anopheline mosquitoes. Information on P. knowlesi malaria is lacking in most regions so the first step to understand the geographical distribution of disease risk is to define the distributions of the reservoir and vector species.

METHODS: We used macaque and mosquito species presence data, background data that captured sampling bias in the presence data, a boosted regression tree model and environmental datasets, including annual data for land classes, to predict the distributions of each vector and host species. We then compared the predicted distribution of each species with cover of each land class.

RESULTS: Fine-scale distribution maps were generated for three macaque host species (Macaca fascicularis, M. nemestrina and M. leonina) and two mosquito vector complexes (the Dirus Complex and the Leucosphyrus Complex). The Leucosphyrus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with disturbed, but not intact, forest cover (> 60% tree cover) whereas the Dirus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with 10-100% tree cover as well as vegetation mosaics and cropland. Of the macaque species, M. nemestrina was mainly predicted to occur in forested areas whereas M. fascicularis was predicted to occur in vegetation mosaics, cropland, wetland and urban areas in addition to forested areas.

CONCLUSIONS: The predicted M. fascicularis distribution encompassed a wide range of habitats where humans are found. This is of most significance in the northern part of its range where members of the Dirus Complex are the main P. knowlesi vectors because these mosquitoes were also predicted to occur in a wider range of habitats. Our results support the hypothesis that conversion of intact forest into disturbed forest (for example plantations or timber concessions), or the creation of vegetation mosaics, will increase the probability that members of the Leucosphyrus Complex occur at these locations, as well as bringing humans into these areas. An explicit analysis of disease risk itself using infection data is required to explore this further. The species distributions generated here can now be included in future analyses of P. knowlesi infection risk.

* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.

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