METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored.
METHODS: We measured levels of 30 chemokines and cytokines in serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples from Malaysian children hospitalized with EV71 infection (n = 88), comprising uncomplicated HFMD (n = 47), meningitis (n = 8), acute flaccid paralysis (n = 1), encephalitis (n = 21), and encephalitis with cardiorespiratory compromise (n = 11). Four of the latter patients died.
RESULTS: Both pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory mediator levels were elevated, with different patterns of mediator abundance in the CSF and vascular compartments. Serum concentrations of interleukin 1β (IL-1β), interleukin 1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra), and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) were raised significantly in patients who developed cardio-respiratory compromise (P = .013, P = .004, and P < .001, respectively). Serum IL-1Ra and G-CSF levels were also significantly elevated in patients who died, with a serum G-CSF to interleukin 5 ratio of >100 at admission being the most accurate prognostic marker for death (P < .001; accuracy, 85.5%; sensitivity, 100%; specificity, 84.7%).
CONCLUSIONS: Given that IL-1β has a negative inotropic action on the heart, and that both its natural antagonist, IL-1Ra, and G-CSF are being assessed as treatments for acute cardiac impairment, the findings suggest we have identified functional markers of EV71-related cardiac dysfunction and potential treatment options.
METHODS: A new outcome score based on a 15-item questionnaire was developed after a literature review, examination of current assessment tools, discussion with experts and a pilot study. The score was used to evaluate 100 children in Malaysia (56 Japanese encephalitis patients, 2 patients with encephalitis of unknown etiology and 42 controls) and 95 in India (36 Japanese encephalitis patients, 41 patients with encephalitis of unknown etiology and 18 controls). Inter- and intra-observer variability in the outcome score was determined and the score was compared with full clinical assessment.
FINDINGS: There was good inter-observer agreement on using the new score to identify likely dependency (Kappa = 0.942 for Malaysian children; Kappa = 0.786 for Indian children) and good intra-observer agreement (Kappa = 1.000 and 0.902, respectively). In addition, agreement between the new score and clinical assessment was also good (Kappa = 0.906 and 0.762, respectively). The sensitivity and specificity of the new score for identifying children likely to be dependent were 100% and 98.4% in Malaysia and 100% and 93.8% in India. Positive and negative predictive values were 84.2% and 100% in Malaysia and 65.6% and 100% in India.
CONCLUSION: The new tool for assessing disability in children after Japanese encephalitis was simple to use and scores correlated well with clinical assessment.
METHODS: We examined data collected through a prospective clinical study of HFMD conducted between 2000 and 2006 that included 3 distinct outbreaks of HEV71 to identify risk factors associated with neurological involvement in children with HFMD.
RESULTS: Total duration of fever >or= 3 days, peak temperature >or= 38.5 degrees C and history of lethargy were identified as independent risk factors for neurological involvement (evident by CSF pleocytosis) in the analysis of 725 children admitted during the first phase of the study. When they were validated in the second phase of the study, two or more (>or= 2) risk factors were present in 162 (65%) of 250 children with CSF pleocytosis compared with 56 (30%) of 186 children with no CSF pleocytosis (OR 4.27, 95% CI2.79-6.56, p < 0.0001). The usefulness of the three risk factors in identifying children with CSF pleocytosis on hospital admission during the second phase of the study was also tested. Peak temperature >or= 38.5 degrees C and history of lethargy had the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 28%(48/174), 89%(125/140), 76%(48/63) and 50%(125/251), respectively in predicting CSF pleocytosis in children that were seen within the first 2 days of febrile illness. For those presented on the 3rd or later day of febrile illness, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of >or= 2 risk factors predictive of CSF pleocytosis were 75%(57/76), 59%(27/46), 75%(57/76) and 59%(27/46), respectively.
CONCLUSION: Three readily elicited clinical risk factors were identified to help detect children at risk of neurological involvement. These risk factors may serve as a guide to clinicians to decide the need for hospitalization and further investigation, including cerebrospinal fluid examination, and close monitoring for disease progression in children with HFMD.
METHODS: We established a sentinel surveillance programme for hand, foot and mouth disease in Sarawak, Malaysia, in March 1998, and the observations of the first 7 years are described here. Virus isolation, serotyping and genotyping were performed on throat, rectal, vesicle and other swabs.
RESULTS: During this period Sarawak had two outbreaks of human enterovirus 71, in 2000 and 2003. The predominant strains circulating in the outbreaks of 1997, 2000 and 2003 were all from genogroup B, but the strains isolated during each outbreak were genetically distinct from each other. Human enterovirus 71 outbreaks occurred in a cyclical pattern every three years and Coxsackievirus A16 co-circulated with human enterovirus 71. Although vesicles were most likely to yield an isolate, this sample was not generally available from most cases and obtaining throat swabs was thus found to be the most efficient way to obtain virological information.
CONCLUSION: Knowledge of the epidemiology of human enterovirus 71 transmission will allow public health personnel to predict when outbreaks might occur and to plan interventions in an effective manner in order to reduce the burden of disease.