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  1. Attias E, Thomas D, Sherman D, Ismail K, Constable S
    Sci Adv, 2020 Nov;6(48).
    PMID: 33239299 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abd4866
    Conventional hydrogeologic framework models used to compute ocean island sustainable yields and aquifer storage neglect the complexity of the nearshore and offshore submarine environment. However, the onshore aquifer at the island of Hawai'i exhibits a notable volumetric discrepancy between high-elevation freshwater recharge and coastal discharge. In this study, we present a novel transport mechanism of freshwater moving from onshore to offshore through a multilayer formation of water-saturated layered basalts with interbedded low-permeability layers of ash/soil. Marine electromagnetic imaging reveals ∼35 km of laterally continuous resistive layers that extend to at least 4 km from west of Hawai'i's coastline, containing about 3.5 km3 of freshened water. We propose that this newly found transport mechanism of fresh groundwater may be the governing mechanism in other volcanic islands. In such a scenario, volcanic islands worldwide can use these renewable offshore reservoirs, considered more resilient to climate change-driven droughts, as new water resources.
  2. Slik JWF, Franklin J, Arroyo-Rodríguez V, Field R, Aguilar S, Aguirre N, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2018 02 20;115(8):1837-1842.
    PMID: 29432167 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1714977115
    Knowledge about the biogeographic affinities of the world's tropical forests helps to better understand regional differences in forest structure, diversity, composition, and dynamics. Such understanding will enable anticipation of region-specific responses to global environmental change. Modern phylogenies, in combination with broad coverage of species inventory data, now allow for global biogeographic analyses that take species evolutionary distance into account. Here we present a classification of the world's tropical forests based on their phylogenetic similarity. We identify five principal floristic regions and their floristic relationships: (i) Indo-Pacific, (ii) Subtropical, (iii) African, (iv) American, and (v) Dry forests. Our results do not support the traditional neo- versus paleotropical forest division but instead separate the combined American and African forests from their Indo-Pacific counterparts. We also find indications for the existence of a global dry forest region, with representatives in America, Africa, Madagascar, and India. Additionally, a northern-hemisphere Subtropical forest region was identified with representatives in Asia and America, providing support for a link between Asian and American northern-hemisphere forests.
  3. Pinheiro MM, Ahmed MA, Millar SB, Sanderson T, Otto TD, Lu WC, et al.
    PLoS One, 2015;10(4):e0121303.
    PMID: 25830531 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0121303
    Plasmodium knowlesi is a newly described zoonosis that causes malaria in the human population that can be severe and fatal. The study of P. knowlesi parasites from human clinical isolates is relatively new and, in order to obtain maximum information from patient sample collections, we explored the possibility of generating P. knowlesi genome sequences from archived clinical isolates. Our patient sample collection consisted of frozen whole blood samples that contained excessive human DNA contamination and, in that form, were not suitable for parasite genome sequencing. We developed a method to reduce the amount of human DNA in the thawed blood samples in preparation for high throughput parasite genome sequencing using Illumina HiSeq and MiSeq sequencing platforms. Seven of fifteen samples processed had sufficiently pure P. knowlesi DNA for whole genome sequencing. The reads were mapped to the P. knowlesi H strain reference genome and an average mapping of 90% was obtained. Genes with low coverage were removed leaving 4623 genes for subsequent analyses. Previously we identified a DNA sequence dimorphism on a small fragment of the P. knowlesi normocyte binding protein xa gene on chromosome 14. We used the genome data to assemble full-length Pknbpxa sequences and discovered that the dimorphism extended along the gene. An in-house algorithm was developed to detect SNP sites co-associating with the dimorphism. More than half of the P. knowlesi genome was dimorphic, involving genes on all chromosomes and suggesting that two distinct types of P. knowlesi infect the human population in Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo. We use P. knowlesi clinical samples to demonstrate that Plasmodium DNA from archived patient samples can produce high quality genome data. We show that analyses, of even small numbers of difficult clinical malaria isolates, can generate comprehensive genomic information that will improve our understanding of malaria parasite diversity and pathobiology.
  4. Aad G, Abbott B, Abeling K, Abicht NJ, Abidi SH, Aboulhorma A, et al.
    Phys Rev Lett, 2024 Jan 12;132(2):021803.
    PMID: 38277607 DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.132.021803
    The first evidence for the Higgs boson decay to a Z boson and a photon is presented, with a statistical significance of 3.4 standard deviations. The result is derived from a combined analysis of the searches performed by the ATLAS and CMS Collaborations with proton-proton collision datasets collected at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) from 2015 to 2018. These correspond to integrated luminosities of around 140  fb^{-1} for each experiment, at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The measured signal yield is 2.2±0.7 times the standard model prediction, and agrees with the theoretical expectation within 1.9 standard deviations.
  5. Wills C, Wang B, Fang S, Wang Y, Jin Y, Lutz J, et al.
    PLoS Comput Biol, 2021 Apr;17(4):e1008853.
    PMID: 33914731 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008853
    When Darwin visited the Galapagos archipelago, he observed that, in spite of the islands' physical similarity, members of species that had dispersed to them recently were beginning to diverge from each other. He postulated that these divergences must have resulted primarily from interactions with sets of other species that had also diverged across these otherwise similar islands. By extrapolation, if Darwin is correct, such complex interactions must be driving species divergences across all ecosystems. However, many current general ecological theories that predict observed distributions of species in ecosystems do not take the details of between-species interactions into account. Here we quantify, in sixteen forest diversity plots (FDPs) worldwide, highly significant negative density-dependent (NDD) components of both conspecific and heterospecific between-tree interactions that affect the trees' distributions, growth, recruitment, and mortality. These interactions decline smoothly in significance with increasing physical distance between trees. They also tend to decline in significance with increasing phylogenetic distance between the trees, but each FDP exhibits its own unique pattern of exceptions to this overall decline. Unique patterns of between-species interactions in ecosystems, of the general type that Darwin postulated, are likely to have contributed to the exceptions. We test the power of our null-model method by using a deliberately modified data set, and show that the method easily identifies the modifications. We examine how some of the exceptions, at the Wind River (USA) FDP, reveal new details of a known allelopathic effect of one of the Wind River gymnosperm species. Finally, we explore how similar analyses can be used to investigate details of many types of interactions in these complex ecosystems, and can provide clues to the evolution of these interactions.
  6. Baldeck CA, Kembel SW, Harms KE, Yavitt JB, John R, Turner BL, et al.
    Oecologia, 2016 10;182(2):547-57.
    PMID: 27337965 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-016-3686-2
    While the importance of local-scale habitat niches in shaping tree species turnover along environmental gradients in tropical forests is well appreciated, relatively little is known about the influence of phylogenetic signal in species' habitat niches in shaping local community structure. We used detailed maps of the soil resource and topographic variation within eight 24-50 ha tropical forest plots combined with species phylogenies created from the APG III phylogeny to examine how phylogenetic beta diversity (indicating the degree of phylogenetic similarity of two communities) was related to environmental gradients within tropical tree communities. Using distance-based redundancy analysis we found that phylogenetic beta diversity, expressed as either nearest neighbor distance or mean pairwise distance, was significantly related to both soil and topographic variation in all study sites. In general, more phylogenetic beta diversity within a forest plot was explained by environmental variables this was expressed as nearest neighbor distance versus mean pairwise distance (3.0-10.3 % and 0.4-8.8 % of variation explained among plots, respectively), and more variation was explained by soil resource variables than topographic variables using either phylogenetic beta diversity metric. We also found that patterns of phylogenetic beta diversity expressed as nearest neighbor distance were consistent with previously observed patterns of niche similarity among congeneric species pairs in these plots. These results indicate the importance of phylogenetic signal in local habitat niches in shaping the phylogenetic structure of tropical tree communities, especially at the level of close phylogenetic neighbors, where similarity in habitat niches is most strongly preserved.
  7. Grove J, Ripke S, Als TD, Mattheisen M, Walters RK, Won H, et al.
    Nat Genet, 2019 03;51(3):431-444.
    PMID: 30804558 DOI: 10.1038/s41588-019-0344-8
    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a highly heritable and heterogeneous group of neurodevelopmental phenotypes diagnosed in more than 1% of children. Common genetic variants contribute substantially to ASD susceptibility, but to date no individual variants have been robustly associated with ASD. With a marked sample-size increase from a unique Danish population resource, we report a genome-wide association meta-analysis of 18,381 individuals with ASD and 27,969 controls that identified five genome-wide-significant loci. Leveraging GWAS results from three phenotypes with significantly overlapping genetic architectures (schizophrenia, major depression, and educational attainment), we identified seven additional loci shared with other traits at equally strict significance levels. Dissecting the polygenic architecture, we found both quantitative and qualitative polygenic heterogeneity across ASD subtypes. These results highlight biological insights, particularly relating to neuronal function and corticogenesis, and establish that GWAS performed at scale will be much more productive in the near term in ASD.
  8. Stephenson NL, Das AJ, Condit R, Russo SE, Baker PJ, Beckman NG, et al.
    Nature, 2014 Mar 6;507(7490):90-3.
    PMID: 24429523 DOI: 10.1038/nature12914
    Forests are major components of the global carbon cycle, providing substantial feedback to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Our ability to understand and predict changes in the forest carbon cycle--particularly net primary productivity and carbon storage--increasingly relies on models that represent biological processes across several scales of biological organization, from tree leaves to forest stands. Yet, despite advances in our understanding of productivity at the scales of leaves and stands, no consensus exists about the nature of productivity at the scale of the individual tree, in part because we lack a broad empirical assessment of whether rates of absolute tree mass growth (and thus carbon accumulation) decrease, remain constant, or increase as trees increase in size and age. Here we present a global analysis of 403 tropical and temperate tree species, showing that for most species mass growth rate increases continuously with tree size. Thus, large, old trees do not act simply as senescent carbon reservoirs but actively fix large amounts of carbon compared to smaller trees; at the extreme, a single big tree can add the same amount of carbon to the forest within a year as is contained in an entire mid-sized tree. The apparent paradoxes of individual tree growth increasing with tree size despite declining leaf-level and stand-level productivity can be explained, respectively, by increases in a tree's total leaf area that outpace declines in productivity per unit of leaf area and, among other factors, age-related reductions in population density. Our results resolve conflicting assumptions about the nature of tree growth, inform efforts to undertand and model forest carbon dynamics, and have additional implications for theories of resource allocation and plant senescence.
  9. Hülsmann L, Chisholm RA, Comita L, Visser MD, de Souza Leite M, Aguilar S, et al.
    Nature, 2024 Mar;627(8004):564-571.
    PMID: 38418889 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07118-4
    Numerous studies have shown reduced performance in plants that are surrounded by neighbours of the same species1,2, a phenomenon known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD)3. A long-held ecological hypothesis posits that CNDD is more pronounced in tropical than in temperate forests4,5, which increases community stabilization, species coexistence and the diversity of local tree species6,7. Previous analyses supporting such a latitudinal gradient in CNDD8,9 have suffered from methodological limitations related to the use of static data10-12. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of latitudinal CNDD patterns using dynamic mortality data to estimate species-site-specific CNDD across 23 sites. Averaged across species, we found that stabilizing CNDD was present at all except one site, but that average stabilizing CNDD was not stronger toward the tropics. However, in tropical tree communities, rare and intermediate abundant species experienced stronger stabilizing CNDD than did common species. This pattern was absent in temperate forests, which suggests that CNDD influences species abundances more strongly in tropical forests than it does in temperate ones13. We also found that interspecific variation in CNDD, which might attenuate its stabilizing effect on species diversity14,15, was high but not significantly different across latitudes. Although the consequences of these patterns for latitudinal diversity gradients are difficult to evaluate, we speculate that a more effective regulation of population abundances could translate into greater stabilization of tropical tree communities and thus contribute to the high local diversity of tropical forests.
  10. Desjardin DE, Peay KG, Bruns TD
    Mycologia, 2011 Sep-Oct;103(5):1119-23.
    PMID: 21558499 DOI: 10.3852/10-433
    A gasteroid bolete collected recently in Sarawak on the island of Borneo is described as the new species Spongiforma squarepantsii. A comprehensive description, illustrations, phylogenetic placement and a comparison with a closely allied species are provided.
  11. Murray CJ, Ortblad KF, Guinovart C, Lim SS, Wolock TM, Roberts DA, et al.
    Lancet, 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):1005-70.
    PMID: 25059949 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8
    BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.

    METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.

    FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.

    INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.

    FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

  12. Bauer M, Glenn T, Achtyes ED, Alda M, Agaoglu E, Altınbaş K, et al.
    J Psychosom Res, 2022 Sep;160:110982.
    PMID: 35932492 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpsychores.2022.110982
    OBJECTIVE: Circadian rhythm disruption is commonly observed in bipolar disorder (BD). Daylight is the most powerful signal to entrain the human circadian clock system. This exploratory study investigated if solar insolation at the onset location was associated with the polarity of the first episode of BD I. Solar insolation is the amount of electromagnetic energy from the Sun striking a surface area of the Earth.

    METHODS: Data from 7488 patients with BD I were collected at 75 sites in 42 countries. The first episode occurred at 591 onset locations in 67 countries at a wide range of latitudes in both hemispheres. Solar insolation values were obtained for every onset location, and the ratio of the minimum mean monthly insolation to the maximum mean monthly insolation was calculated. This ratio is largest near the equator (with little change in solar insolation over the year), and smallest near the poles (where winter insolation is very small compared to summer insolation). This ratio also applies to tropical locations which may have a cloudy wet and clear dry season, rather than winter and summer.

    RESULTS: The larger the change in solar insolation throughout the year (smaller the ratio between the minimum monthly and maximum monthly values), the greater the likelihood the first episode polarity was depression. Other associated variables were being female and increasing percentage of gross domestic product spent on country health expenditures. (All coefficients: P ≤ 0.001).

    CONCLUSION: Increased awareness and research into circadian dysfunction throughout the course of BD is warranted.

  13. Bauer M, Glenn T, Alda M, Andreassen OA, Angelopoulos E, Ardau R, et al.
    J Psychiatr Res, 2015 May;64:1-8.
    PMID: 25862378 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpsychires.2015.03.013
    Environmental conditions early in life may imprint the circadian system and influence response to environmental signals later in life. We previously determined that a large springtime increase in solar insolation at the onset location was associated with a younger age of onset of bipolar disorder, especially with a family history of mood disorders. This study investigated whether the hours of daylight at the birth location affected this association.
  14. Bauer M, Glenn T, Alda M, Andreassen OA, Angelopoulos E, Ardau R, et al.
    J Psychiatr Res, 2019 06;113:1-9.
    PMID: 30878786 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpsychires.2019.03.001
    In many international studies, rates of completed suicide and suicide attempts have a seasonal pattern that peaks in spring or summer. This exploratory study investigated the association between solar insolation and a history of suicide attempt in patients with bipolar I disorder. Solar insolation is the amount of electromagnetic energy from the Sun striking a surface area on Earth. Data were collected previously from 5536 patients with bipolar I disorder at 50 collection sites in 32 countries at a wide range of latitudes in both hemispheres. Suicide related data were available for 3365 patients from 310 onset locations in 51 countries. 1047 (31.1%) had a history of suicide attempt. There was a significant inverse association between a history of suicide attempt and the ratio of mean winter solar insolation/mean summer solar insolation. This ratio is smallest near the poles where the winter insolation is very small compared to the summer insolation. This ratio is largest near the equator where there is relatively little variation in the insolation over the year. Other variables in the model that were positively associated with suicide attempt were being female, a history of alcohol or substance abuse, and being in a younger birth cohort. Living in a country with a state-sponsored religion decreased the association. (All estimated coefficients p 
  15. Bauer M, Glenn T, Alda M, Andreassen OA, Angelopoulos E, Ardau R, et al.
    J Affect Disord, 2014;167:104-11.
    PMID: 24953482 DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2014.05.032
    The onset of bipolar disorder is influenced by the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. We previously found that a large increase in sunlight in springtime was associated with a lower age of onset. This study extends this analysis with more collection sites at diverse locations, and includes family history and polarity of first episode.
  16. Boen, Randall, Upton, Thomas D., Knickmeyer, Nicole, Azzahrah Anuar
    MyJurnal
    The purpose of this study is to assess the relative fairness of selected educational accommodations provided to peers who have disabilities. This study utilized two scales developed by Upton (2000) which quantifies the relative fairness that students perceive towards the provision of selected educational accommodations. The findings of this study yielded evidence to support that level of education at a university level might have an influence on the students’ perceptions about educational accommodations offered to the students with disabilities. These surveys were distributed to around 409 students at a mid-size southern public university in the United States. Implications of these findings and suggestions for future research are provided.
  17. Global Burden of Disease Pediatrics Collaboration, Kyu HH, Pinho C, Wagner JA, Brown JC, Bertozzi-Villa A, et al.
    JAMA Pediatr, 2016 Mar;170(3):267-87.
    PMID: 26810619 DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2015.4276
    IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.

    OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study.

    EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14,244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35,620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.

    FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905.059 deaths; 95% UI, 810,304-998,125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38,325 deaths; 95% UI, 30,365-47,678), and road injuries among adolescents (115,186 deaths; 95% UI, 105,185-124,870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.

    CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.

  18. Global Burden of Disease Child and Adolescent Health Collaboration, Kassebaum N, Kyu HH, Zoeckler L, Olsen HE, Thomas K, et al.
    JAMA Pediatr, 2017 Jun 01;171(6):573-592.
    PMID: 28384795 DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2017.0250
    IMPORTANCE: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health.

    OBJECTIVE: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion.

    EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss.

    FINDINGS: Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries.

    CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.

  19. Bauer M, Glenn T, Achtyes ED, Alda M, Agaoglu E, Altınbaş K, et al.
    Int J Bipolar Disord, 2021 Sep 01;9(1):26.
    PMID: 34467430 DOI: 10.1186/s40345-021-00231-7
    BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorder is associated with circadian disruption and a high risk of suicidal behavior. In a previous exploratory study of patients with bipolar I disorder, we found that a history of suicide attempts was associated with differences between winter and summer levels of solar insolation. The purpose of this study was to confirm this finding using international data from 42% more collection sites and 25% more countries.

    METHODS: Data analyzed were from 71 prior and new collection sites in 40 countries at a wide range of latitudes. The analysis included 4876 patients with bipolar I disorder, 45% more data than previously analyzed. Of the patients, 1496 (30.7%) had a history of suicide attempt. Solar insolation data, the amount of the sun's electromagnetic energy striking the surface of the earth, was obtained for each onset location (479 locations in 64 countries).

    RESULTS: This analysis confirmed the results of the exploratory study with the same best model and slightly better statistical significance. There was a significant inverse association between a history of suicide attempts and the ratio of mean winter insolation to mean summer insolation (mean winter insolation/mean summer insolation). This ratio is largest near the equator which has little change in solar insolation over the year, and smallest near the poles where the winter insolation is very small compared to the summer insolation. Other variables in the model associated with an increased risk of suicide attempts were a history of alcohol or substance abuse, female gender, and younger birth cohort. The winter/summer insolation ratio was also replaced with the ratio of minimum mean monthly insolation to the maximum mean monthly insolation to accommodate insolation patterns in the tropics, and nearly identical results were found. All estimated coefficients were significant at p 

  20. Bauer M, Glenn T, Achtyes ED, Alda M, Agaoglu E, Altınbaş K, et al.
    Int J Bipolar Disord, 2023 Jun 22;11(1):22.
    PMID: 37347392 DOI: 10.1186/s40345-023-00303-w
    BACKGROUND: Sunlight contains ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation that triggers the production of vitamin D by skin. Vitamin D has widespread effects on brain function in both developing and adult brains. However, many people live at latitudes (about > 40 N or S) that do not receive enough UVB in winter to produce vitamin D. This exploratory study investigated the association between the age of onset of bipolar I disorder and the threshold for UVB sufficient for vitamin D production in a large global sample.

    METHODS: Data for 6972 patients with bipolar I disorder were obtained at 75 collection sites in 41 countries in both hemispheres. The best model to assess the relation between the threshold for UVB sufficient for vitamin D production and age of onset included 1 or more months below the threshold, family history of mood disorders, and birth cohort. All coefficients estimated at P ≤ 0.001.

    RESULTS: The 6972 patients had an onset in 582 locations in 70 countries, with a mean age of onset of 25.6 years. Of the onset locations, 34.0% had at least 1 month below the threshold for UVB sufficient for vitamin D production. The age of onset at locations with 1 or more months of less than or equal to the threshold for UVB was 1.66 years younger.

    CONCLUSION: UVB and vitamin D may have an important influence on the development of bipolar disorder. Study limitations included a lack of data on patient vitamin D levels, lifestyles, or supplement use. More study of the impacts of UVB and vitamin D in bipolar disorder is needed to evaluate this supposition.

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