METHODS: This cross-sectional study collected publicly available data on COVID-19 clusters occurring in Malaysia from 1 March 2020 to 31 May 2021. The characteristics of cases were described by category, and their associations with several outcomes were analysed. Descriptive analyses were performed to explore the method used to detect the index case and the mode of early transmission, according to cluster category.

RESULTS: A total of 2188 clusters were identified. The workplace cluster category had the largest proportion of clusters (51.5%, 1126/2188 clusters), while the custodial settings category had the largest median cluster size (178 cases per cluster) and longest median duration of cluster (51 days). The high-risk groups category had the highest mortality. There were significant differences in cluster size, duration and rate of detection across the categories. Targeted screening was most commonly used to detect index cases, especially in custodial settings, and in imported and workplace clusters. Household-social and social-workplace contacts were the most common modes of early transmission across most categories.

METHODS: We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide.

FINDINGS: Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vaccination coverage in 2016 was estimated to be substantially less than the recommended threshold to prevent outbreaks. Overall, we estimated that vaccination coverage levels achieved by 2016 avert between 94 336 and 118 500 cases of yellow fever annually within risk zones, on the basis of conservative and optimistic vaccination scenarios. The areas outside at-risk regions with predicted high receptivity to yellow fever transmission (eg, parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) were less extensive than the distribution of the main urban vector, A aegypti, with low receptivity to yellow fever transmission in southern China, where A aegypti is known to occur.

INTERPRETATION: Our results provide the evidence base for targeting vaccination campaigns within risk zones, as well as emphasising their high effectiveness. Our study highlights areas where public health authorities should be most vigilant for potential spread or importation events.