METHODS: A cost-utility analysis using a lifetime Markov model was conducted among Thai patients with NAFLD, from a societal perspective. Pioglitazone, vitamin E, a weight reduction program, and usual care were investigated, with the outcomes of interest being the number of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.
RESULTS: When compared with usual care, a weight reduction program can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 13.91% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.97, 20.59) and 2.12% (95% CrI 0.43, 4.56), respectively; pioglitazone can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 9.30% (95% CrI -2.52, 15.24) and 1.42% (95% CrI -0.18, 3.74), respectively; and vitamin E can prevent cirrhosis and HCC cases by 7.32% (95% CrI -4.64, 15.56) and 1.12% (95% CrI -0.81, 3.44), respectively. Estimated incremental life expectancy and incremental QALYs for all treatment options compared with usual care were approximately 0.06 years and 0.07 QALYs, respectively. The lifetime costs of both a weight reduction program and pioglitazone were less than usual care, while vitamin E was $3050 (95% CrI 2354, 3650). The weight reduction program dominated all other treatment options. The probability of being cost-effective in Thailand's willingness-to-pay threshold ($4546/QALY gained) was 76% for the weight reduction program, 22% for pioglitazone, 2% for usual care, and 0% for vitamin E.
CONCLUSIONS: A weight reduction program can prevent cirrhosis and HCC occurrences, and dominates all other treatment options. Pioglitazone and vitamin E demonstrated a trend towards decreasing the number of cirrhosis and HCC cases.
METHODS: We estimated mortality using natural history models for acute hepatitis infections and GBD's cause-of-death ensemble model for cirrhosis and liver cancer. We used meta-regression to estimate total cirrhosis and total liver cancer prevalence, as well as the proportion of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to each cause. We then estimated cause-specific prevalence as the product of the total prevalence and the proportion attributable to a specific cause. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs).
FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2013, global viral hepatitis deaths increased from 0·89 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·86-0·94) to 1·45 million (1·38-1·54); YLLs from 31·0 million (29·6-32·6) to 41·6 million (39·1-44·7); YLDs from 0·65 million (0·45-0·89) to 0·87 million (0·61-1·18); and DALYs from 31·7 million (30·2-33·3) to 42·5 million (39·9-45·6). In 2013, viral hepatitis was the seventh (95% UI seventh to eighth) leading cause of death worldwide, compared with tenth (tenth to 12th) in 1990.
INTERPRETATION: Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Unlike most communicable diseases, the absolute burden and relative rank of viral hepatitis increased between 1990 and 2013. The enormous health loss attributable to viral hepatitis, and the availability of effective vaccines and treatments, suggests an important opportunity to improve public health.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
METHODS: Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.
FINDINGS: There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.
INTERPRETATION: Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.
FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.
OBJECTIVE: To identify the studies on premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and synthesise their findings on YLL based on the regional area, main CVD types, sex, and study time.
METHOD: We conducted a systematic review of published CVD mortality studies that reported YLL as an indicator for premature mortality measurement. A literature search for eligible studies was conducted in five electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science (WoS), and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to assess the quality of the included studies. The synthesis of YLL was grouped into years of potential life lost (YPLL) and standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) using descriptive analysis. These subgroups were further divided into WHO (World Health Organization) regions, study time, CVD type, and sex to reduce the effect of heterogeneity between studies.
RESULTS: Forty studies met the inclusion criteria for this review. Of these, 17 studies reported premature CVD mortality using YPLL, and the remaining 23 studies calculated SEYLL. The selected studies represent all WHO regions except for the Eastern Mediterranean. The overall median YPLL and SEYLL rates per 100,000 population were 594.2 and 1357.0, respectively. The YPLL rate and SEYLL rate demonstrated low levels in high-income countries, including Switzerland, Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, the USA, and South Korea, and a high rate in middle-income countries (including Brazil, India, South Africa, and Serbia). Over the past three decades (1990-2022), there has been a slight increase in the YPLL rate and the SEYLL rate for overall CVD and ischemic heart disease but a slight decrease in the SEYLL rate for cerebrovascular disease. The SEYLL rate for overall CVD demonstrated a notable increase in the Western Pacific region, while the European region has experienced a decline and the American region has nearly reached a plateau. In regard to sex, the male showed a higher median YPLL rate and median SEYLL rate than the female, where the rate in males substantially increased after three decades.
CONCLUSION: Estimates from both the YPLL and SEYLL indicators indicate that premature CVD mortality continues to be a major burden for middle-income countries. The pattern of the YLL rate does not appear to have lessened over the past three decades, particularly for men. It is vitally necessary to develop and execute strategies and activities to lessen this mortality gap.
SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42021288415.
Methods: Cross-sectional data from 62 developing countries were used to run several multivariate linear regressions. R2 was used to compare the powers of MPI with income-poverties (income poverty gaps [IPG] at 1.9 and 3.1 USD) in explaining LE.
Results: Adjusting for controls, both MPI (β =-0.245, P<0.001) and IPG at 3.1 USD (β=-0.135, P=0.044) significantly correlates with LE, but not IPG at 1.9 USD (β=-0.147, P=0.135). MPI explains 12.1% of the variation in LE compared to only 3.2% explained by IPG at 3.1 USD. The effect of MPI on LE is higher on female (β=-0.210, P<0.001) than male (β=-0.177, P<0.001). The relative influence of the deprivation indictors on LE ranks as follows (most to least): Asset ownership, drinking water, cooking fuel, flooring, child school attendance, years of schooling, nutrition, mortality, improved sanitation, and electricity.
Conclusion: Interventions to reduce poverty and improve LE should be guided by MPI, not income poverty indices. Such policies should be female-oriented and prioritized based on the relative influence of the various poverty deprivation indicators on LE.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 28 cancers in 188 countries by sex from 1990 to 2013.
EVIDENCE REVIEW: The general methodology of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study was used. Cancer registries were the source for cancer incidence data as well as mortality incidence (MI) ratios. Sources for cause of death data include vital registration system data, verbal autopsy studies, and other sources. The MI ratios were used to transform incidence data to mortality estimates and cause of death estimates to incidence estimates. Cancer prevalence was estimated using MI ratios as surrogates for survival data; YLDs were calculated by multiplying prevalence estimates with disability weights, which were derived from population-based surveys; YLLs were computed by multiplying the number of estimated cancer deaths at each age with a reference life expectancy; and DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs.
FINDINGS: In 2013 there were 14.9 million incident cancer cases, 8.2 million deaths, and 196.3 million DALYs. Prostate cancer was the leading cause for cancer incidence (1.4 million) for men and breast cancer for women (1.8 million). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause for cancer death in men and women, with 1.6 million deaths. For men, TBL cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (24.9 million). For women, breast cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (13.1 million). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 100 000 for both sexes in 2013 were higher in developing vs developed countries for stomach cancer (ASIR, 17 vs 14; ASDR, 15 vs 11), liver cancer (ASIR, 15 vs 7; ASDR, 16 vs 7), esophageal cancer (ASIR, 9 vs 4; ASDR, 9 vs 4), cervical cancer (ASIR, 8 vs 5; ASDR, 4 vs 2), lip and oral cavity cancer (ASIR, 7 vs 6; ASDR, 2 vs 2), and nasopharyngeal cancer (ASIR, 1.5 vs 0.4; ASDR, 1.2 vs 0.3). Between 1990 and 2013, ASIRs for all cancers combined (except nonmelanoma skin cancer and Kaposi sarcoma) increased by more than 10% in 113 countries and decreased by more than 10% in 12 of 188 countries.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Cancer poses a major threat to public health worldwide, and incidence rates have increased in most countries since 1990. The trend is a particular threat to developing nations with health systems that are ill-equipped to deal with complex and expensive cancer treatments. The annual update on the Global Burden of Cancer will provide all stakeholders with timely estimates to guide policy efforts in cancer prevention, screening, treatment, and palliation.