METHODS: In this systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study, we searched PubMed, Ovid, and Web of Science for articles published from database inception until Sept 26, 2022, for prospective and retrospective cross-sectional studies that addressed serological chikungunya virus infection in any geographical region, age group, and population subgroup and for longitudinal prospective and retrospective cohort studies with data on chronic chikungunya or hospital admissions in people with chikungunya. We did a systematic review of studies on chikungunya seroprevalence and fitted catalytic models to each survey to estimate location-specific FOI (ie, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire chikungunya infection). We performed a meta-analysis to estimate the proportion of symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed chikungunya who had chronic chikungunya or were admitted to hospital following infection. We used a random-effects model to assess the relationship between chronic sequelae and follow-up length using linear regression. The systematic review protocol is registered online on PROSPERO, CRD42022363102.

FINDINGS: We identified 60 studies with data on seroprevalence and chronic chikungunya symptoms done across 76 locations in 38 countries, and classified 17 (22%) of 76 locations as endemic settings and 59 (78%) as epidemic settings. The global long-term median annual FOI was 0·007 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·003-0·010) and varied from 0·0001 (0·00004-0·0002) to 0·113 (0·07-0·20). The highest estimated median seroprevalence at age 10 years was in south Asia (8·0% [95% UI 6·5-9·6]), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (7·8% [4·9-14·6]), whereas median seroprevalence was lowest in the Middle East (1·0% [0·5-1·9]). We estimated that 51% (95% CI 45-58) of people with laboratory-confirmed symptomatic chikungunya had chronic disability after infection and 4% (3-5) were admitted to hospital following infection.

INTERPRETATION: We inferred subnational heterogeneity in long-term average annual FOI and transmission dynamics and identified both endemic and epidemic settings across different countries. Brazil, Ethiopia, Malaysia, and India included both endemic and epidemic settings. Long-term average annual FOI was higher in epidemic settings than endemic settings. However, long-term cumulative incidence of chikungunya can be similar between large outbreaks in epidemic settings with a high FOI and endemic settings with a relatively low FOI.

METHODS: Prospective case finding was performed from June to December 2009. Those who presented with signs and symptoms of CHIKV infection were investigated. We designed a case control study to assess the risk factors. Assessment consisted of answering questions, undergoing a medical examination, and being tested for the presence of IgM antibodies to CHIKV. Descriptive epidemiological studies were conducted by reviewing both the national surveillance and laboratory data. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to determine risk factors contributing to the illness. Cases were determined by positive to RT-PCR or serological for antibodies by IgM. CHIKV specificity was confirmed by DNA sequencing.

RESULTS: There were 129 suspected cases and 176 controls. Among suspected cases, 54.4% were diagnosed to have CHIKV infection. Among the controls, 30.1% were found to be positive to serology for antibodies [IgM, 14.2% and IgG, 15.9%]. For analytic study and based on laboratory case definition, 95 were considered as cases and 123 as controls. Those who were positive to IgG were excluded. CHIKV infection affected all ages and mostly between 50-59 years old. Staying together in the same house with infected patients and working as rubber tappers were at a higher risk of infection. The usage of Mosquito coil insecticide had shown to be a significant protective factor. Most cases were treated as outpatient, only 7.5% needed hospitalization. The CHIKV infection was attributable to central/east African genotype CHIKV.

METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional study involving 149 healthy adult volunteers from Tanjung Sepat was performed soon after the outbreak had subsided. All the participants donated blood samples and completed the questionnaires. Laboratory detection of anti-CHIKV IgM and IgG antibodies was performed using enzyme-linked immunoassays (ELISA). Risk factors associated with chikungunya seropositivity were determined using logistic regression.

RESULTS: The majority (72.5%, n = 108) of the study participants tested positive for CHIKV antibodies. Only 8.3% (n = 9) of the participants out of all the seropositive volunteers had an asymptomatic infection. Participants who resided with a febrile (p < 0.05, Exp(B) = 2.2, confidence interval [CI] 1.3-3.6) or a CHIKV-diagnosed person (p < 0.05, Exp(B) = 2.1, CI 1.2-3.6) in the same household were found likely to be tested positive for CHIKV antibodies.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We characterized human immune sera collected during two independent outbreaks in Malaysia of the Asian genotype in 2006 and the ECSA genotype in 2008-2010. Neutralizing capacity was analyzed against representative clinical isolates as well as viruses rescued from infectious clones of ECSA and Asian CHIKV. Using whole virus antigen and recombinant E1 and E2 envelope glycoproteins, we further investigated antibody binding sites, epitopes, and antibody titers. Both ECSA and Asian sera demonstrated stronger neutralizing capacity against the ECSA genotype, which corresponded to strong epitope-antibody interaction. ECSA serum targeted conformational epitope sites in the E1-E2 glycoprotein, and E1-E211K, E2-I2T, E2-H5N, E2-G118S and E2-S194G are key amino acids that enhance cross-neutralizing efficacy. As for Asian serum, the antibodies targeting E2 glycoprotein correlated with neutralizing efficacy, and I2T, H5N, G118S and S194G altered and improved the neutralization profile. Rabbit polyclonal antibody against the N-terminal linear neutralizing epitope from the ECSA sequence has reduced binding capacity and neutralization efficacy against Asian CHIKV. These findings imply that the choice of vaccine strain may impact cross-protection against different genotypes.