METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For eight destination countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Singapore), we collected age-dependent seroepidemiological data. We also retrieved the number of imported cases, who were notified to the Japanese government, as well as the total number of travelers to each destination. Using a mathematical model, we estimated the force of infection in each destination country with seroepidemiological data while jointly inferring the reporting coverage of DENV infections among Japanese travelers from datasets of imported cases and travelers. Assuming that travelers had a risk of infection that was identical to that of the local population during travel, the reporting coverage of dengue appeared to range from 0.6% to 4.3%. The risk of infection per journey ranged from 0.02% to 0.44%.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found that the actual number of imported cases of DENV infection among Japanese travelers could be more than 20 times the notified number of imported cases. This finding may be attributed to the substantial proportion of asymptomatic and under-ascertained infections.
INTRODUCTION: A study published in 2001 predicted a 30-50% increase in Singapore hip fracture incidence rates over the ensuing 30 years. To test that prediction, we examined the incidence of hip fracture in Singapore from 2000 to 2017.
METHODS: We carried out a population-based study of hip fractures among Singapore residents aged ≥ 50 years. National medical insurance claims data were used to identify admissions with a primary discharge diagnosis of hip fracture. Age-adjusted rates, based on the age distribution of the Singapore population of 2000, were analyzed separately by sex and ethnicity (Chinese, Malay, or Indian).
RESULTS: Over the 18-year study period, 36,082 first hip fractures were recorded. Total hip fracture admissions increased from 1487 to 2729 fractures/year in the years 2000 to 2017. Despite this absolute increase, age-adjusted fracture rates declined, with an average annual change of - 4.3 (95% CI - 5.0, - 3.5) and - 1.1 (95% CI - 1.7, - 0.5) fractures/100,000/year for women and men respectively. Chinese women had 1.4- and 1.9-fold higher age-adjusted rates than Malay and Indian women: 264 (95% CI 260, 267) versus 185 (95% CI 176, 193) and 141 (95% CI 132, 150) fractures/100,000/year, respectively. Despite their higher fracture rates, Chinese women were the only ethnic group exhibiting a decline, most evident in those ≥ 85 years, in age-adjusted fracture rate of - 5.3 (95% CI - 6.0, - 4.5) fractures/100,000/year.
CONCLUSION: Although the absolute number of fractures increased, steep drops in elderly Chinese women drove a reduction in overall age-adjusted hip fracture rates. Increases in the older population will lead to a rise in total number of hip fractures, requiring budgetary planning and new preventive strategies.