MATERIALS AND METHODS: Six control and five DM Wistar rats were evaluated. DM was induced at 11 weeks of age using streptozotocin (STZ; 60 mg/kg, intraperitoneal). Animals were monitored up to 38 weeks of age, when plasma glucose, lipid profile, and markers specific for systemic inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and oxidative stress were measured. The amount of fat within the aortic wall was assessed semiquantitatively using Oil Red O staining.
RESULTS: Diabetic rats presented significantly higher plasma glucose (p < 0.001), total cholesterol and triglycerides (both p = 0.02), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (p = 0.01), and vascular endothelial growth factor (p = 0.04) levels, and significantly lower interleukin-10 (p = 0.04), superoxide dismutase (p < 0.01), and glutathione peroxidase (p = 0.01) levels than the control rats. Mild (grade 1) atherosclerotic lesions were observed in the aortic wall of 80% of the diabetic rats and in none of the control rats.
CONCLUSIONS: This study presents a STZ-induced type 1 DM rat model with one of the longest follow-ups in the literature. In this model, long-term DM created a highly pro-atherogenic environment characterised by hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia, systemic inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and oxidative stress that resulted in the development of early aortic atherosclerotic lesions.
METHODS: We developed a linear optimisation model to estimate efficiency gains that could be achieved based on current procurement of OAT. We also developed a dynamic, compartmental population model of HIV transmission that included both injection and sexual risk to estimate the effect of OAT scale-up on HIV infections and mortality over a 10-year horizon. The compartmental population model was calibrated to HIV prevalence and incidence among PWID for 23 administrative regions of Ukraine. Sources for regional data included the SyrEx database, the Integrated Biological and Behavioral Survey, the Ukrainian Center for Socially Dangerous Disease Control of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian Census.
FINDINGS: Under a status-quo scenario (OAT coverage of 2·7% among PWID), the number of new HIV infections among PWID in Ukraine over the next 10 years was projected to increase to 58 820 (95% CI 47 968-65 535), with striking regional differences. With optimum allocation of OAT without additional increases in procurement, OAT coverage could increase from 2·7% to 3·3% by increasing OAT doses to ensure higher retention levels. OAT scale-up to 10% and 20% over 10 years would, respectively, prevent 4368 (95% CI 3134-5243) and 10 864 (7787-13 038) new HIV infections and reduce deaths by 7096 (95% CI 5078-9160) and 17 863 (12 828-23 062), relative to the status quo. OAT expansion to 20% in five regions of Ukraine with the highest HIV burden would account for 56% of new HIV infections and 49% of deaths prevented over 10 years.
INTERPRETATION: To optimise HIV prevention and treatment goals in Ukraine, OAT must be substantially scaled up in all regions. Increased medication procurement is needed, combined with optimisation of OAT dosing. Restricting OAT scale-up to some regions of Ukraine could benefit many PWID, but the regions most affected are not necessarily those with the highest HIV burden.
FUNDING: National Institute on Drug Abuse.
METHODS: The pharmacology module consisted of a pharmacokinetic distribution of oseltamivir carboxylate daily area under the concentration-time curve at steady state (simulated for 75 mg and 150 mg twice daily regimens for 5 days) and a pharmacodynamic distribution of viral shedding duration obtained from phase II influenza inoculation data. The epidemiological module comprised a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model to which drug effect on the basic reproductive number (R0 ), a measure of transmissibility, was linked by reduction of viral shedding duration. The number of infected patients per population of 100 000 susceptible individuals was simulated for a series of pandemic scenarios, varying oseltamivir dose, R0 (1.9 vs. 2.7), and drug uptake (25%, 50%, and 80%). The number of infected patients for each scenario was entered into the health economics module, a decision analytic model populated with branch probabilities, disease utility, costs of hospitalized patients developing complications, and case-fatality rates. Change in quality-adjusted life years was determined relative to base case.
RESULTS: Oseltamivir 75 mg relative to no treatment reduced the median number of infected patients, increased change in quality-adjusted life years by deaths averted, and was cost-saving under all scenarios; 150 mg relative to 75 mg was not cost effective in low transmissibility scenarios but was cost saving in high transmissibility scenarios.
CONCLUSION: This methodological study demonstrates proof of concept that the disciplines of pharmacology, disease epidemiology and health economics can be linked in a single quantitative framework.
METHODS: Adults were selected through a stratified, two-stage cluster community sample in Selangor, Malaysia. The reliability, convergent validity, and discriminant validity of the measurement model were assessed before implementing a partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) to evaluate the significance of the structural paths.
RESULTS: A total of 728 participants were enrolled. The five constructs all showed adequate internal reliability, convergent validity, and discriminant validity. There was a significant, positive relationship to WTP from constructs (perceived barriers [Path coefficient (β) = 0.082, P = 0.036], perceived susceptibility [β = 0.214, P<0.001], and cues to action [β = 0.166, P<0.001]), and the model all together accounted for 8.8% of the variation in WTP. There was a significant, negative relationship between perceived barriers and perceived benefit [β = -0.261, P<0.001], which accounted for 6.8% of variation in perceived benefit.
CONCLUSIONS: Policy and programs should be targeted that can modify individuals' thoughts about disease risk, their obstacles in obtaining the preventive action, and their readiness to obtain a vaccine. Such programs include educational materials about disease risk and clinic visits that can pair HepB screening and vaccination.
DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Ten-year horizon (2016-25) modeling study of opioid addiction epidemic and treatment that accommodated potential peer effects in opioid use initiation and supply-induced treatment demand in three Ukrainian cities: Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Lviv, comprising a simulated population of people at risk of and with OUD.
MEASUREMENTS: Incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained in the simulated population.
FINDINGS: An estimated 12.2-, 2.4- and 13.4-fold OAT capacity increase over 2016 baseline capacity in Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Lviv, respectively, would be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay of one per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) per quality-adjusted life-year gained. This result is robust to parametric and structural uncertainty. Even under the most ambitious capacity increase, OAT coverage (i.e. the proportion of people with OUD receiving OAT) over a 10-year modeling horizon would be 20, 11 and 17% in Kyiv, Mykolaiv and Lviv, respectively, owing to limited demand.
CONCLUSIONS: It is estimated that a substantial increase in opioid agonist treatment (OAT) capacity in three Ukrainian cities would be cost-effective for a wide range of willingness-to-pay thresholds. Even a very ambitious capacity increase, however, is unlikely to reach internationally recommended coverage levels. Further increases in coverage may be limited by demand and would require addressing existing structural barriers to OAT access.
METHODS: This study used mixed methods to develop a PtDA for use in a UK general practice setting. A 10-member expert panel was convened to guide development and patients and clinicians were also interviewed individually using semi-structured interview guides to identify their decisional needs. Current literature was reviewed systematically to determine the best available evidence. The Ottawa Decision Support Framework was used to guide the presentation of the information and value clarification exercise. An iterative draft-review-revise process by the research team and review panel was conducted until the PtDA reached content and format 'saturation'. The PtDA was then pilot-tested by users in actual consultations to assess its acceptability and feasibility. The IPDAS and UKMRC frameworks were used throughout to inform the development process.
RESULTS: The PANDAs PtDA was developed systematically and iteratively. Patients and clinicians highlighted the needs for information, decisional, emotional and social support, which were incorporated into the PtDA. The literature review identified gaps in high quality evidence and variations in patient outcome reporting. The PtDA comprised five components: background of the treatment options; pros and cons of each treatment option; value clarification exercise; support needs; and readiness to decide.
CONCLUSIONS: This study has demonstrated the feasibility of combining the IPDAS and the UKMRC frameworks for the development and evaluation of a PtDA. Future studies should test this model for developing PtDAs across different decisions and healthcare contexts.