OBJECTIVES: The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden.
METHODS: CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility.
RESULTS: In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75.
CONCLUSIONS: CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.
AIM: To identify the association of baseline GGT level and QRISK2 score among patients with biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).
METHODS: This was a retrospective study involving 1535 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients from 10 Asian centers in 8 countries using data collected by the Gut and Obesity in Asia (referred to as "GO ASIA") workgroup. All patients with available baseline GGT levels and all 16 variables for the QRISK2 calculation (QRISK2-2017; developed by researchers at the United Kingdom National Health Service; https://qrisk.org/2017/; 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation) were included and compared to healthy controls with the same age, sex, and ethnicity. Relative risk was reported. QRISK2 score > 10% was defined as the high-CVD-risk group. Fibrosis stages 3 and 4 (F3 and F4) were considered advanced fibrosis.
RESULTS: A total of 1122 patients (73%) had complete data and were included in the final analysis; 314 (28%) had advanced fibrosis. The median age (interquartile range [IQR]) of the study population was 53 (44-60) years, 532 (47.4%) were females, and 492 (43.9%) were of Chinese ethnicity. The median 10-year CVD risk (IQR) was 5.9% (2.6-10.9), and the median relative risk of CVD over 10 years (IQR) was 1.65 (1.13-2.2) compared to healthy individuals with the same age, sex, and ethnicity. The high-CVD-risk group was significantly older than the low-risk group (median [IQR]: 63 [59-67] vs 49 [41-55] years; P < 0.001). Higher fibrosis stages in biopsy-proven NAFLD patients brought a significantly higher CVD risk (P < 0.001). Median GGT level was not different between the two groups (GGT [U/L]: Median [IQR], high risk 60 [37-113] vs low risk 66 [38-103], P = 0.56). There was no correlation between baseline GGT level and 10-year CVD risk based on the QRISK2 score (r = 0.02).
CONCLUSION: The CVD risk of NAFLD patients is higher than that of healthy individuals. Baseline GGT level cannot predict CVD risk in NAFLD patients. However, advanced fibrosis is a predictor of a high CVD risk.
METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Hip fracture Accelerated surgical TreaTment And Care tracK (HIP ATTACK) is a multicentre, international, parallel-group randomised controlled trial (RCT). Patients who suffer a hip fracture are randomly allocated to either accelerated medical assessment and surgical repair with a goal of surgery within 6 hours of diagnosis or standard care where a repair typically occurs 24 to 48 hours after diagnosis. The primary outcome of this substudy is the development of AKI within 7 days of randomisation. We anticipate at least 1998 patients will participate in this substudy.
ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We obtained ethics approval for additional serum creatinine recordings in consecutive patients enrolled at 70 participating centres. All patients provide consent before randomisation. We anticipate reporting substudy results by 2021.
TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02027896; Pre-results.
METHODS: Matching variables from the Towards Useful Aging and Malaysian Elders Longitudinal Research datasets related to falls, physical performance and determinants of falls were identified and pooled for analysis. The Timed Up and Go test and dominant handgrip strength tests were used as physical performance measures. Falls were self-reported, and functional status was assessed using activities of daily living.
RESULTS: Data of 3935 participants, mean age 68.9 ± 6.8 years, 2127 (54.0%) women and 1807 (46.0%) men were extracted for analyses. In an adjusted model, independent risk factors for falls from this cohort studies were diabetes (OR 1.258), arthritis (OR 1.366), urinary incontinence (OR 1.346), poor self-rated health (OR 1.293), higher body mass index (OR 1.029) and lower handgrip strength (OR 1.234).
CONCLUSIONS: Although the risk factors that emerged from our analyses were similar to available studies among older adults, the Timed Up and Go test did not appear as one of the risk factors in the present study that included middle-aged adults. Our findings will require confirmation in a prospective study. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 798-803.
PURPOSE: To determine if density of breast is an independent risk factor which will contribute to development of breast cancer.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: A prospective cohort study is carried out in two hospitals targeting adult female patients who presented to the Breast Clinic with symptoms suspicious of breast cancer. Participants recruited were investigated for breast cancer based on their symptoms. Breast density assessed from mammogram was correlated with tissue biopsy results and final diagnosis of benign or malignant breast disease.
RESULTS: Participants with dense breasts showed 29% increased risk of breast cancer when compared to those with almost entirely fatty breasts (odds ratio [OR] 1.29, 95% CI 0.38-4.44, P = .683). Among the postmenopausal women, those with dense breasts were 3.1 times more likely to develop breast cancer compared with those with fatty breasts (OR 3.125, 95% CI 0.72-13.64, P = .13). Moreover, the chance of developing breast cancer increases with age (OR 1.046, 95% CI 1.003-1.090, P risk of breast cancer cannot be ruled out. The study is limited by a small sample size and subjective assessment of breast density. More studies are required to reconcile the differences between studies of contrasting evidence.