METHODS: An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed.
RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039.
CONCLUSIONS: The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic impact of feeding high-risk, not exclusively breastfed, urban Malaysian infants with partiallyhydrolyzed whey-based formula (PHF-W) instead of CMF for the first 17 weeks of life as an AD risk reduction strategy.
METHODS: A cohort Markov model simulated the AD incidence and burden from birth to age 6 years in the target population fed with PHF-W vs. CMF. The model integrated published clinical and epidemiologic data, local cost data, and expert opinion. Modeled outcomes included AD-risk reduction, time spent post AD diagnosis, days without AD flare, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs (direct and indirect). Outcomes were discounted at 3% per year. Costs are expressed in Malaysian Ringgit (MYR; MYR 1,000 = United States dollar [US $]316.50).
RESULTS: Feeding a high-risk infant PHF-W vs. CMF resulted in a 14% point reduction in AD risk (95% confidence interval [CI], 3%-23%), a 0.69-year (95% CI, 0.25-1.10) reduction in time spent post-AD diagnosis, additional 38 (95% CI, 2-94) days without AD flare, and an undiscounted gain of 0.041 (95% CI, 0.007-0.103) QALYs. The discounted AD-related 6-year cost estimates when feeding a high-risk infant with PHF-W were MYR 1,758 (US $556) (95% CI, MYR 917-3,033) and with CMF MYR 2,871 (US $909) (95% CI, MYR 1,697-4,278), resulting in a per-child net saving of MYR 1,113 (US $352) (95% CI, MYR 317-1,884) favoring PHF-W.
CONCLUSION: Using PHF-W instead of CMF in this population is expected to result in AD-related costs savings.