Displaying publications 61 - 80 of 274 in total

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  1. Review: Shaping a sustainable food future by rediscovering long-forgotten ancient grains
    Cheng A
    Plant Sci, 2018 Apr;269:136-142.
    PMID: 29606211 DOI: 10.1016/j.plantsci.2018.01.018
    Genetic erosion of crops has been determined way back in the 1940s and accelerated some twenty years later by the inception of the Green Revolution. Claims that the revolution was a complete triumph remain specious, especially since the massive production boost in the global big three grain crops; wheat, maize, and rice that happened back then is unlikely to recur under current climate irregularities. Presently, one of the leading strategies for sustainable agriculture is by unlocking the genetic potential of underutilized crops. The primary focus has been on a suite of ancient cereals and pseudo-cereals which are riding on the gluten-free trend, including, among others, grain amaranth, buckwheat, quinoa, teff, and millets. Each of these crops has demonstrated tolerance to various stress factors such as drought and heat. Apart from being the centuries-old staple in their native homes, these crops have also been traditionally used as forage for livestock. This review summarizes what lies in the past and present for these underutilized cereals, particularly concerning their potential role and significance in a rapidly changing world, and provides compelling insights into how they could one day be on par with the current big three in feeding a booming population.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  2. Fulltext The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou
    Cheng Q, Jing Q, Spear RC, Marshall JM, Yang Z, Gong P
    PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2017 Jun;11(6):e0005701.
    PMID: 28640895 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005701
    Dengue is a fast spreading mosquito-borne disease that affects more than half of the population worldwide. An unprecedented outbreak happened in Guangzhou, China in 2014, which contributed 52 percent of all dengue cases that occurred in mainland China between 1990 and 2015. Our previous analysis, based on a deterministic model, concluded that the early timing of the first imported case that triggered local transmission and the excessive rainfall thereafter were the most important determinants of the large final epidemic size in 2014. However, the deterministic model did not allow us to explore the driving force of the early local transmission. Here, we expand the model to include stochastic elements and calculate the successful invasion rate of cases that entered Guangzhou at different times under different climate and intervention scenarios. The conclusion is that the higher number of imported cases in May and June was responsible for the early outbreak instead of climate. Although the excessive rainfall in 2014 did increase the success rate, this effect was offset by the low initial water level caused by interventions in late 2013. The success rate is strongly dependent on mosquito abundance during the recovery period of the imported case, since the first step of a successful invasion is infecting at least one local mosquito. The average final epidemic size of successful invasion decreases exponentially with introduction time, which means if an imported case in early summer initiates the infection process, the final number infected can be extremely large. Therefore, dengue outbreaks occurring in Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam in early summer merit greater attention, since the travel volumes between Guangzhou and these countries are large. As the climate changes, destroying mosquito breeding sites in Guangzhou can mitigate the detrimental effects of the probable increase in rainfall in spring and summer.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
  3. Fulltext Response of marine copepods to a changing tropical environment: winners, losers and implications
    Chew LL, Chong VC
    PeerJ, 2016;4:e2052.
    PMID: 27257540 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.2052
    Background. Climate change concurrent with anthropogenic disturbances can initiate serial changes that reverberate up the food chain with repercussions for fisheries. To date, there is no information available concerning the combined effects of global warming and human impacts on tropical marine food webs. While temperate copepods respond differently to warming and environmental stressors, the extent to which tropical copepods can adapt to rising temperature of already warm waters remains unknown. We hypothesize that sea warming and other anthropogenic disturbances over the long term will have the greatest impact on the copepod community in nearshore waters where their effects are accentuated, and therefore vulnerable and resilient species could be identified. Methods. Zooplankton samples were collected during two time periods (1985-86 and 2014-15) interposed by marked anthropogenic disturbances, and at the same five stations located progressively from inshore to offshore in Klang Strait, Malaysia, following the asymmetrical before-after-control-impact (BACI) design. Copepods were identified to species, and results were interpreted by univariate (ANOVA) and multivariate (PERMANOVA, PCO) analyses of the computed species abundance and diversity measures. Results. Copepod total abundance was not significantly different among stations but higher after disturbance than before disturbance. However, changes in the abundance of particular species and the community structure between time periods were dramatic. Coastal large-bodied calanoid species (e.g., Acartia spinicauda, Calanopia thompsoni, Pseudodiaptomus bowmani and Tortanus forcipatus) were the most vulnerable group to disturbance. This however favored the opportunistic species (e.g., Oithona simplex, O. attenuata, Hemicyclops sp., Pseudomacrochiron sp. and Microsetella norvegica). Small-bodied copepods (e.g., Paracalanus sp., Parvocalanus crassirostris and Euterpina acutifrons) were unaffected. Centropages tenuiremis was likely an introduced species. There was no significant loss in species richness of copepods despite the dramatic changes in community structure. Discussion. Sea warming and other human-induced effects such as eutrophication, acidification and coastal habitat degradation are likely the main factors that have altered copepod community structure. The large-bodied estuarine and coastal calanoid copepods are surmised to be vulnerable to eutrophication and hypoxia, while both resilient and opportunistic species are largely unaffected by, or adaptable to, degraded coastal environments and observed sea surface temperature (SST) rise. It is forecasted that SST rise with unmitigated anthropogenic impacts will further reduce large-bodied copepod species the favoured food for fish larvae with dire consequences for coastal fish production.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  4. The future of food from the sea
    Costello C, Cao L, Gelcich S, Cisneros-Mata MÁ, Free CM, Froehlich HE, et al.
    Nature, 2020 12;588(7836):95-100.
    PMID: 32814903 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2616-y
    Global food demand is rising, and serious questions remain about whether supply can increase sustainably1. Land-based expansion is possible but may exacerbate climate change and biodiversity loss, and compromise the delivery of other ecosystem services2-6. As food from the sea represents only 17% of the current production of edible meat, we ask how much food we can expect the ocean to sustainably produce by 2050. Here we examine the main food-producing sectors in the ocean-wild fisheries, finfish mariculture and bivalve mariculture-to estimate 'sustainable supply curves' that account for ecological, economic, regulatory and technological constraints. We overlay these supply curves with demand scenarios to estimate future seafood production. We find that under our estimated demand shifts and supply scenarios (which account for policy reform and technology improvements), edible food from the sea could increase by 21-44 million tonnes by 2050, a 36-74% increase compared to current yields. This represents 12-25% of the estimated increase in all meat needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050. Increases in all three sectors are likely, but are most pronounced for mariculture. Whether these production potentials are realized sustainably will depend on factors such as policy reforms, technological innovation and the extent of future shifts in demand.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  5. Fulltext Four ways blue foods can help achieve food system ambitions across nations
    Crona BI, Wassénius E, Jonell M, Koehn JZ, Short R, Tigchelaar M, et al.
    Nature, 2023 Apr;616(7955):104-112.
    PMID: 36813964 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-05737-x
    Blue foods, sourced in aquatic environments, are important for the economies, livelihoods, nutritional security and cultures of people in many nations. They are often nutrient rich1, generate lower emissions and impacts on land and water than many terrestrial meats2, and contribute to the health3, wellbeing and livelihoods of many rural communities4. The Blue Food Assessment recently evaluated nutritional, environmental, economic and justice dimensions of blue foods globally. Here we integrate these findings and translate them into four policy objectives to help realize the contributions that blue foods can make to national food systems around the world: ensuring supplies of critical nutrients, providing healthy alternatives to terrestrial meat, reducing dietary environmental footprints and safeguarding blue food contributions to nutrition, just economies and livelihoods under a changing climate. To account for how context-specific environmental, socio-economic and cultural aspects affect this contribution, we assess the relevance of each policy objective for individual countries, and examine associated co-benefits and trade-offs at national and international scales. We find that in many African and South American nations, facilitating consumption of culturally relevant blue food, especially among nutritionally vulnerable population segments, could address vitamin B12 and omega-3 deficiencies. Meanwhile, in many global North nations, cardiovascular disease rates and large greenhouse gas footprints from ruminant meat intake could be lowered through moderate consumption of seafood with low environmental impact. The analytical framework we provide also identifies countries with high future risk, for whom climate adaptation of blue food systems will be particularly important. Overall the framework helps decision makers to assess the blue food policy objectives most relevant to their geographies, and to compare and contrast the benefits and trade-offs associated with pursuing these objectives.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  6. The value of small mangrove patches
    Curnick DJ, Pettorelli N, Amir AA, Balke T, Barbier EB, Crooks S, et al.
    Science, 2019 01 18;363(6424):239.
    PMID: 30655434 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw0809
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  7. Climate Change and Infant Nutrition: Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Milk Formula Sold in Selected Asia Pacific Countries
    Dadhich JP, Smith JP, Iellamo A, Suleiman A
    J Hum Lact, 2021 May;37(2):314-322.
    PMID: 33586512 DOI: 10.1177/0890334421994769
    BACKGROUND: There is growing recognition that current food systems and policies are environmentally unsustainable. There is an identified need to integrate sustainability objectives into national food policy and dietary recommendations.

    RESEARCH AIMS: To (1) describe exploratory estimates of greenhouse gas emission factors for all infant and young child milk formula products and (2) estimate national greenhouse gas emission association with commercial milk formulas sold in selected countries in the Asia Pacific region.

    METHOD: We used a secondary data analysis descriptive design incorporating a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) concepts and methodology to estimate kg CO2 eq. emissions per kg of milk formula, using greenhouse gas emission factors for milk powder, vegetable oils, and sugars identified from a literature review. Proportions of ingredients were calculated using FAO Codex Alimentarius guidance on milk formula products. Estimates were calculated for production and processing of individual ingredients from cradle to factory gate. Annual retail sales data for 2012-2017 was sourced from Euromonitor International for six purposively selected countries; Australia, South Korea, China, Malaysia, India, Philippines.

    RESULTS: Annual emissions for milk formula products ranged from 3.95-4.04 kg CO2 eq. Milk formula sold in the six countries in 2012 contributed 2,893,030 tons CO2 eq. to global greenhouse gas emissions. Aggregate emissions were highest for products (e.g., toddler formula), which dominated sales growth. Projected 2017 emissions for milk formula retailed in China alone were 4,219,052 tons CO2 eq.

    CONCLUSIONS: Policies, programs and investments to shift infant and young child diets towards less manufactured milk formula and more breastfeeding are "Triple Duty Actions" that help improve dietary quality and population health and improve the sustainability of the global food system.

    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  8. Fulltext Transport infrastructure, economic growth, and transport CO2 emissions nexus: Does green energy consumption in the transport sector matter?
    Dai J, Alvarado R, Ali S, Ahmed Z, Meo MS
    Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2023 Mar;30(14):40094-40106.
    PMID: 36607580 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-25100-3
    Attaining Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is important to control the adverse impacts of climate change and achieve sustainable development. Among the 17 SDGs, target 13 emphasizes enhancing urgent actions to combat climate-related changes. This target is also dependent on target 7, which advocates enhancing access to cheap alternative sustainable energy. To accomplish these targets, it is vital to curb the transport CO2 emissions (TCO2) which increased by approximately 80% from 1990 to 2019. Thus, this study assesses the role of transport renewable energy consumption (TRN) in TCO2 by taking into consideration transport fossil fuel consumption (TTF) and road infrastructure (RF) from 1970 to 2019 for the United States (US) with the intention to suggest some suitable mitigation policies. Also, this study assessed the presence of transport environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) to assess the direction of transport-induced growth. The study used the Bayer-Hanck cointegration test which utilizes four different cointegration techniques to decide cointegration along with the Gradual Shift causality test which considers structural shift and fractional integration in time series data. The long-run findings of the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) test, which counters endogeneity and serial correlation, revealed that the transport renewable energy use mitigates as well as Granger causes TCO2. However, transport fossil fuel usage and road infrastructure enhance TCO2. Surprisingly, the transport EKC is invalid in the case of the US, and increased growth levels are harmful to the environment. The association between TCO2 and economic growth is similar to a U-shaped curve. The Spectral Causality test revealed the growth hypothesis regarding transport fossil fuel use and economic growth connection, which suggests that policymakers should be cautious while decreasing the usage of transport fossil fuels because it may hamper economic progress. These findings call for revisiting growth strategies and increasing green energy utilization in the transport sector to mitigate transport emissions.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  9. Agricultural intensification and drought frequency increases may have landscape-level consequences for ephemeral ecosystems
    Dalu T, Wasserman RJ, Dalu MT
    Glob Chang Biol, 2017 03;23(3):983-985.
    PMID: 27869348 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13549
    Ephemeral wetlands in arid regions are often degraded or destroyed through poor land-use practice long before they are ever studied or prioritized for conservation. Climate change will likely also have implications for these ecosystems given forecast changes in rainfall patterns in many arid environments. Here, we present a conceptual diagram showing typical and modified ephemeral wetlands in agricultural landscapes and how modification impacts on species diversity and composition.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
  10. Fulltext Interdisciplinary approaches to understanding disease emergence: the past, present, and future drivers of Nipah virus emergence
    Daszak P, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Bogich TL, Fernandez M, Epstein JH, Murray KA, et al.
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2013 Feb 26;110 Suppl 1:3681-8.
    PMID: 22936052 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1201243109
    Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) pose a significant threat to human health, economic stability, and biodiversity. Despite this, the mechanisms underlying disease emergence are still not fully understood, and control measures rely heavily on mitigating the impact of EIDs after they have emerged. Here, we highlight the emergence of a zoonotic Henipavirus, Nipah virus, to demonstrate the interdisciplinary and macroecological approaches necessary to understand EID emergence. Previous work suggests that Nipah virus emerged due to the interaction of the wildlife reservoir (Pteropus spp. fruit bats) with intensively managed livestock. The emergence of this and other henipaviruses involves interactions among a suite of anthropogenic environmental changes, socioeconomic factors, and changes in demography that overlay and interact with the distribution of these pathogens in their wildlife reservoirs. Here, we demonstrate how ecological niche modeling may be used to investigate the potential role of a changing climate on the future risk for Henipavirus emergence. We show that the distribution of Henipavirus reservoirs, and therefore henipaviruses, will likely change under climate change scenarios, a fundamental precondition for disease emergence in humans. We assess the variation among climate models to estimate where Henipavirus host distribution is most likely to expand, contract, or remain stable, presenting new risks for human health. We conclude that there is substantial potential to use this modeling framework to explore the distribution of wildlife hosts under a changing climate. These approaches may directly inform current and future management and surveillance strategies aiming to improve pathogen detection and, ultimately, reduce emergence risk.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  11. Climate change, health, and discrimination: action towards racial justice
    Deivanayagam TA, Selvarajah S, Hickel J, Guinto RR, de Morais Sato P, Bonifacio J, et al.
    Lancet, 2023 Jan 07;401(10370):5-7.
    PMID: 36343651 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)02182-1
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
  12. Fulltext Investments on Pro-poor Development Projects on Goats: Ensuring Success for Improved Livelihoods
    Devendra C
    Asian-Australas J Anim Sci, 2013 Jan;26(1):1-18.
    PMID: 25049700 DOI: 10.5713/ajas.2013.r.01
    The elements that determine the success of development projects on goats and the prerequisites for ensuring this are discussed in the context of the bewildering diversity of goat genetic resources, production systems, multifunctionality, and opportunities for responding to constraints for productivity enhancement. Key determinants for the success of pro-poor projects are the imperatives of realistic project design, resolution of priorities and positive impacts to increase investments and spur agricultural growth, and appropriate policy. Throughout the developing world, there exist 97% of the total world population of 921 million goats across all agro-ecological zones (AEZs), including 570 breeds and 64% share of the breeds. They occupy a very important biological and socio-economic niche in farming systems making significant multifunctional contributions especially to food, nutrition and financial security, stability of farm households, and survival of the poor in the rural areas. Definitions are given of successful and failed projects. The analyses highlighted in successful projects the value of strong participatory efforts with farmers and climate change. Climate change effects on goats are inevitable and are mediated through heat stress, type of AEZ, water availability, quantity and quality of the available feed resources and type of production system. Within the prevailing production systems, improved integrated tree crops - ruminant systems are underestimated and are an important pathway to enhance C sequestration. Key development strategies and opportunities for research and development (R and D) are enormous, and include inter alia defining a policy framework, resolution of priority constraints using systems perspectives and community-based participatory activities, application of yield-enhancing technologies, intensification, scaling up, and impacts. The priority for development concerns the rainfed areas with large concentrations of ruminants in which goats, with a capacity to cope with heat tolerance, can be the entry point for development. Networks and networking are very important for the diffusion of information and can add value to R and D. Well formulated projects with clear priority setting and participatory R and D ensure success and the realisation of food security, improved livelihoods and self-reliance in the future.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  13. Fulltext Impact of climate change on animal production in Asia: coping with challenges for agricultural R&D
    Devendra, C.
    ASM Science Journal, 2011;5(2):139-150.
    MyJurnal
    The effects of anticipated climate change and the potential impact on animal production are discussed in the context of varying biophysical features, agro-ecological zones (AEZs), ecosystems, land use, and responses in animal genetic diversity and production. The AEZs in Asia have great diversity in their links to food production in crop-animal small farm systems, the poverty complex and livelihoods of the poor. In these environments. climate change effects on animals were mediated through heat stress, water availability, quantity and quality of the available feed resources, type of production system and productivity. The responses to heat stress are tabulated and they vary according to species, breeds within-species, AEZs, physiological and nutritional status, genetic potential and multifunctionality. Among ruminant production systems, dairy production was especially vulnerable to heat stress. Interestingly in India, buffalo numbers owned largely by the landless and small farmers in the semi-arid and arid regions have grown twice as fast as the buffalo population in the irrigated areas. The implications and strategies to cope with climate change involve mitigation, adaptation and policy. The principal strategy is targetting to the reduce on in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from the agricultural sector from enteric fermentation and manure, and ways to intensify C sequestration. An important link is that of breeding and conserving indigenous animal genetic resources as a means to mitigate climate change, with associated benefits to the trade of live animals and animal products. Improved integrated tree crops-ruminant systems are an important pathway to enhance C sequestration. The opportunities for research and development (R&D) are enormous and they would need policy support and large investments to provide improved understanding of ways to ensure sustainable animal production systems. Coping with the totality of the effects and impact of climate change constitutes the challenges for agricultural R&D and the improved livelihood of the resource-poor in the future.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  14. Long lead time drought forecasting using lagged climate variables and a stacked long short-term memory model
    Dikshit A, Pradhan B, Alamri AM
    Sci Total Environ, 2021 Feb 10;755(Pt 2):142638.
    PMID: 33049536 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142638
    Drought forecasting with a long lead time is essential for early warning systems and risk management strategies. The use of machine learning algorithms has been proven to be beneficial in forecasting droughts. However, forecasting at long lead times remains a challenge due to the effects of climate change and the complexities involved in drought assessment. The rise of deep learning techniques can solve this issue, and the present work aims to use a stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture to forecast a commonly used drought measure, namely, the Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index. The model was then applied to the New South Wales region of Australia, with hydrometeorological and climatic variables as predictors. The multivariate interpolated grid of the Climatic Research Unit was used to compute the index at monthly scales, with meteorological variables as predictors. The architecture was trained using data from the period of 1901-2000 and tested on data from the period of 2001-2018. The results were then forecasted at lead times ranging from 1 month to 12 months. The forecasted results were analysed in terms of drought characteristics, such as drought intensity, drought onset, spatial extent and number of drought months, to elucidate how these characteristics improve the understanding of drought forecasting. The drought intensity forecasting capability of the model used two statistical metrics, namely, the coefficient of determination (R2) and root-mean-square error. The variation in the number of drought months was examined using the threat score technique. The results of this study showed that the stacked LSTM model can forecast effectively at short-term and long-term lead times. Such findings will be essential for government agencies and can be further tested to understand the forecasting capability of the presented architecture at shorter temporal scales, which can range from days to weeks.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  15. Interpretable and explainable AI (XAI) model for spatial drought prediction
    Dikshit A, Pradhan B
    Sci Total Environ, 2021 Dec 20;801:149797.
    PMID: 34467917 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149797
    Accurate prediction of any type of natural hazard is a challenging task. Of all the various hazards, drought prediction is challenging as it lacks a universal definition and is getting adverse with climate change impacting drought events both spatially and temporally. The problem becomes more complex as drought occurrence is dependent on a multitude of factors ranging from hydro-meteorological to climatic variables. A paradigm shift happened in this field when it was found that the inclusion of climatic variables in the data-driven prediction model improves the accuracy. However, this understanding has been primarily using statistical metrics used to measure the model accuracy. The present work tries to explore this finding using an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) model. The explainable deep learning model development and comparative analysis were performed using known understandings drawn from physical-based models. The work also tries to explore how the model achieves specific results at different spatio-temporal intervals, enabling us to understand the local interactions among the predictors for different drought conditions and drought periods. The drought index used in the study is Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at 12 month scales applied for five different regions in New South Wales, Australia, with the explainable algorithm being SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The conclusions drawn from SHAP plots depict the importance of climatic variables at a monthly scale and varying ranges of annual scale. We observe that the results obtained from SHAP align with the physical model interpretations, thus suggesting the need to add climatic variables as predictors in the prediction model.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  16. Adaptation of coastal defence structure as a mechanism to alleviate coastal erosion in monsoon dominated coast of Peninsular Malaysia
    Dong WS, Ariffin EH, Saengsupavanich C, Mohd Rashid MA, Mohd Shukri MH, Ramli MZ, et al.
    J Environ Manage, 2023 May 01;333:117391.
    PMID: 36774836 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117391
    The complexity of the coastal environment and the advent of climate change cause coastal erosion, which is incontrovertibly a significant concern worldwide, including Peninsular Malaysia, where, the coast is threatened by severe erosion linked to anthropogenic factors and monsoonal wind-driven waves. Consequently, the Malaysian government implemented a mitigation plan using several coastal defence systems to overcome the coastal erosion problem. This study assesses coastal erosion management strategies along a monsoon-dominated coasts by evaluating the efficacy of coastal protection structures against the coast. To this end, we analysed 244 km of the coastline of Terengganu, a federal state located on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. Due to a higher frequency of storms and the ensuing inception of high wave energy environments during the northeast monsoon (relative to southwest monsoon), the study area is the most impacted region in Malaysia with regard to coastal erosion. Fifty-five (55) coastal defence structures were detected along the Terengganu coastline. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) was utilised to compute changes in the rate statistics for various historical shoreline positions along the Terengganu coast to assess the efficacy of the defence structures. Additionally, this study acquired the perception of the existing coastal management strategies through an interview session with the concerned stakeholders. The rate statistics revealed the effectiveness and impact of the coastal defence structure on the coastline. Assessing the functionality of the coastal defence structures shed light on the present scenario of coastal erosion management. Greater efficacy and lower impact of coastal defence structures are prescribed for coastal erosion management strategies across the monsoon-dominated coast.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  17. Fulltext Global patterns and climatic controls of forest structural complexity
    Ehbrecht M, Seidel D, Annighöfer P, Kreft H, Köhler M, Zemp DC, et al.
    Nat Commun, 2021 01 22;12(1):519.
    PMID: 33483481 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20767-z
    The complexity of forest structures plays a crucial role in regulating forest ecosystem functions and strongly influences biodiversity. Yet, knowledge of the global patterns and determinants of forest structural complexity remains scarce. Using a stand structural complexity index based on terrestrial laser scanning, we quantify the structural complexity of boreal, temperate, subtropical and tropical primary forests. We find that the global variation of forest structural complexity is largely explained by annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality (R² = 0.89). Using the structural complexity of primary forests as benchmark, we model the potential structural complexity across biomes and present a global map of the potential structural complexity of the earth´s forest ecoregions. Our analyses reveal distinct latitudinal patterns of forest structure and show that hotspots of high structural complexity coincide with hotspots of plant diversity. Considering the mechanistic underpinnings of forest structural complexity, our results suggest spatially contrasting changes of forest structure with climate change within and across biomes.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
  18. How energy insecurity leads to energy poverty? Do environmental consideration and climate change concerns matters
    Ehsanullah S, Tran QH, Sadiq M, Bashir S, Mohsin M, Iram R
    Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2021 Oct;28(39):55041-55052.
    PMID: 34125387 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-14415-2
    The aim of the study is to estimate the nexus between energy insecurity and energy poverty with the role of climate change and other environmental concerns. We used DEA like WP methods and properties of MCDA, a most common form of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to estimate the nexus between constructs. This paper presents a measurement and analysis of G7 countries' energy, economic, social, and environmental performance associated with energy poverty indexes. The study used the multiple, comprehensive, and relevant set of indicators, including energy economics and environmental consideration of energy poverty. The net energy consumption of al G7 economies is equal to 34 percent of the entire world along with the net estimate GDP score of around 50 percent. Using DEA modelling and estimation technique, our research presented valuable insights for readers, theorists and policy makers on energy, environment, energy poverty and climate change mitigation. For this reasons, all these indicators combined in a mathematical composite indicator to measure energy, economic, social, and environmental performance index (EPI). Results show that Canada has the highest EPII score, which shows that Canada's capacity to deal with energy self-sufficiency, economic development, and environmental performance is greater than the other G7 countries. France and Italy rank second and third. Japan comes next with 0.50 EPI scores, while the USA has the lowest average EPI score environment vulnerable even though have higher economic development among the G7 group countries. We suggest a policy framework to strengthen the subject matter of the study.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change*
  19. Fulltext Urban tinkering
    Elmqvist T, Siri J, Andersson E, Anderson P, Bai X, Das PK, et al.
    Sustain Sci, 2018;13(6):1549-1564.
    PMID: 30546487 DOI: 10.1007/s11625-018-0611-0
    Cities are currently experiencing serious, multifaceted impacts from global environmental change, especially climate change, and the degree to which they will need to cope with and adapt to such challenges will continue to increase. A complex systems approach inspired by evolutionary theory can inform strategies for policies and interventions to deal with growing urban vulnerabilities. Such an approach would guide the design of new (and redesign of existing) urban structures, while promoting innovative integration of grey, green and blue infrastructure in service of environmental and health objectives. Moreover, it would contribute to more flexible, effective policies for urban management and the use of urban space. Four decades ago, in a seminal paper in Science, the French evolutionary biologist and philosopher Francois Jacob noted that evolution differs significantly in its characteristic modes of action from processes that are designed and engineered de novo (Jacob in Science 196(4295):1161-1166, 1977). He labeled the evolutionary process "tinkering", recognizing its foundation in the modification and molding of existing traits and forms, with occasional dramatic shifts in function in the context of changing conditions. This contrasts greatly with conventional engineering and design approaches that apply tailor-made materials and tools to achieve well-defined functions that are specified a priori. We here propose that urban tinkering is the application of evolutionary thinking to urban design, engineering, ecological restoration, management and governance. We define urban tinkering as:A mode of operation, encompassing policy, planning and management processes, that seeks to transform the use of existing and design of new urban systems in ways that diversify their functions, anticipate new uses and enhance adaptability, to better meet the social, economic and ecological needs of cities under conditions of deep uncertainty about the future.This approach has the potential to substantially complement and augment conventional urban development, replacing predictability, linearity and monofunctional design with anticipation of uncertainty and non-linearity and design for multiple, potentially shifting functions. Urban tinkering can function by promoting a diversity of small-scale urban experiments that, in aggregate, lead to large-scale often playful innovative solutions to the problems of sustainable development. Moreover, the tinkering approach is naturally suited to exploring multi-functional uses and approaches (e.g., bricolage) for new and existing urban structures and policies through collaborative engagement and analysis. It is thus well worth exploring as a means of delivering co-benefits for environment and human health and wellbeing. Indeed, urban tinkering has close ties to systems approaches, which often are recognized as critical to sustainable development. We believe this concept can help forge much-closer, much-needed ties among engineers, architects, evolutionary ecologists, health specialists, and numerous other urban stakeholders in developing innovative, widely beneficial solutions for society and contribute to successful implementation of SDG11 and the New Urban Agenda.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
  20. Fulltext Current and future trends in socio-economic, demographic and governance factors affecting global primate conservation
    Estrada A, Garber PA, Chaudhary A
    PeerJ, 2020;8:e9816.
    PMID: 32884865 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.9816
    Currently, ~65% of extant primate species (ca 512 species) distributed in 91 countries in the Neotropics, mainland Africa, Madagascar, South Asia and Southeast Asia are threatened with extinction and 75% have declining populations as a result of deforestation and habitat loss resulting from increasing global market demands, and land conversion for industrial agriculture, cattle production and natural resource extraction. Other pressures that negatively impact primates are unsustainable bushmeat hunting, the illegal trade of primates as pets and as body parts, expanding road networks in previously isolated areas, zoonotic disease transmission and climate change. Here we examine current and future trends in several socio-economic factors directly or indirectly affecting primates to further our understanding of the interdependent relationship between human well-being, sustainable development, and primate population persistence. We found that between 2001 and 2018 ca 191 Mha of tropical forest (30% canopy cover) were lost as a result of human activities in the five primate range regions. Forty-six percent of this loss was in the Neotropics (Mexico, Central and South America), 30% in Southeast Asia, 21% in mainland Africa, 2% in Madagascar and 1% in South Asia. Countries with the greatest losses (ca 57% of total tree cover loss) were Brazil, Indonesia, DRC, China, and Malaysia. Together these countries harbor almost 50% of all extant primate species. In 2018, the world human population was estimated at ca 8bn people, ca 60% of which were found in primate range countries. Projections to 2050 and to 2100 indicate continued rapid growth of the human populations in these five primate range regions, with Africa surpassing all the other regions and totaling ca 4bn people by the year 2100. Socioeconomic indicators show that, compared to developed nations, most primate range countries are characterized by high levels of poverty and income inequality, low human development, low food security, high levels of corruption and weak governance. Models of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) projected to 2050 and 2100 showed that whereas practices of increasing inequality (SSP4) or unconstrained growth in economic output and energy use (SSP5) are projected to have dire consequences for human well-being and primate survivorship, practices of sustainability-focused growth and equality (SSP1) are expected to have a positive effect on maintaining biodiversity, protecting environments, and improving the human condition. These results stress that improving the well-being, health, and security of the current and future human populations in primate range countries are of paramount importance if we are to move forward with effective policies to protect the world's primate species and promote biodiversity conservation.
    Matched MeSH terms: Climate Change
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